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There is a reason why 90% of business leaders and economists think leaving the EU is a bad idea.

 Kilkrazy wrote:
There is a reason why 90% of business leaders and economists think leaving the EU is a bad idea.

Unfortunately the average Middle Englander thinks their own internal advice is superior to the professionals in service. Literally every single bank, monetary foundation and stock broker has commented on Brexit lowering the value of Sterling and the British economy. But what do they know? Take back our shores! Britain for British folk! Immigrants! Turkey! Vote LEAVE and take CONTROL!

What a bag of spank; I sorely despise this folk who are voting out. It's going to wreck havoc in the British Isles, and not just economically. The people who are wanting to leave and cast the EU a sour eye will be the first to complain when certain rights and liberties are stripped away by successive Tory governments (because we sure as gak ain't seeing Labour in power for another decade) that were otherwise protected by the European Union.

 Eiríkr wrote:
... snip ...

Check your bile. There's plenty of reasons and motivations for voting either way. Voting Leave does not make one a Xenophobic fascist or a racist scumbag any more than voting Remain makes one an UK loathing Oikophobe or a loopy euro federalist.

 Eiríkr wrote:

 Kilkrazy wrote:
There is a reason why 90% of business leaders and economists think leaving the EU is a bad idea.

Unfortunately the average Middle Englander thinks their own internal advice is superior to the professionals in service. Literally every single bank, monetary foundation and stock broker has commented on Brexit lowering the value of Sterling and the British economy. But what do they know? Take back our shores! Britain for British folk! Immigrants! Turkey! Vote LEAVE and take CONTROL!

What a bag of spank; I sorely despise this folk who are voting out. It's going to wreck havoc in the British Isles, and not just economically. The people who are wanting to leave and cast the EU a sour eye will be the first to complain when certain rights and liberties are stripped away by successive Tory governments (because we sure as gak ain't seeing Labour in power for another decade) that were otherwise protected by the European Union.

I think it is in the English Spirit to raise your fingers and say "feth you" to Europe, but I think we need to realise that strategically it is better to do this from the inside, Alpha Legion style!

EldarArmy wrote:
When we Brexit it'll almost have no effect. The pound exchange rate movement already dictates more of a price barrier to export than any potential 10% tax into the eu. (Which is itself unlikely to happen as we have a huge trade surplus inside the EU and doing a 10% tax would actually /make/ the UK money.. not GW. But it'd make the nation money and cost the eu 17 billion annually do it'd be unlikely to be invoked.

You have to remember GW is a manufacturer. Outside the EU the cost of raw materials will come crashing down. Becaue what is thought of a trading alliance, is actually a pay wall to bring things in. Things GW uses to manufacture with.

Most of the brexit changes would be beneficial to GW:

- massivley less red tape
- cheaper raw materials / cheaper machinary
- cheaper goods into USA and Australia*

It's incredibly unlikely GW would bring prices down for "us" but they'd do better, invest more in new content, and be more profitable which means more growth.

This last one is complex*

This is fantasy economics.

I too work in an export-based area, around 20-30 per cent of my income derives from Euro countries. Have you ever tried filling out an ITIN form to stop Americans taxing income at source? Can you imagine what it would be like doing that for every country? Such assertions as yours are simply flying in the face of reality.

Yes, the matter is complex, but overall there are hundred of economists and other institutions backing Remain, and two respected economists backing Brexit - and one of them, Patrick Minford, does do saying we will lose ALL Manufacturing industry. Read his Sun story.

GW would suffer from Brexit, like most major companies. The only possible upside is they might be able to indulge in unrestricted price-fixing (which is what JCB got fined a huge amount for).

 zedmeister wrote:

 Eiríkr wrote:
... snip ...

Check your bile. There's plenty of reasons and motivations for voting either way. Voting Leave does not make one a Xenophobic fascist or a racist scumbag any more than voting Remain makes one an UK loathing Oikophobe or a loopy euro federalist.

You are, of course, true in that there are motivations for either way (I disagree with reason though). One cannot dismiss the incredibly toxic and divisive campaign that the Vote Leave group have run, and this extends backwards towards the Remain camp too. It's been a tremendously negative referendum for both camps, and one that has largely left the majority of the British population casting their vote on the most base of facts (LEAVE: Immigrants, Turkey, EU Control, £350m down the drain etc) without due consideration of wider implications.

Yeah, cause Osbourne effectively threatening to hold the country to ransom if we vote leave was unifying and a total panacea for all ills?

Something I've started doing in recent days is mentally substituting names and/or issues from either side into the other's arguments, most of the time they fit perfectly because nobody's debating the issues, they're just shouting about how the other side is wrong.

Doesn't help that, Boris aside - who's only entertaining if you don't take him too seriously, the personalities fronting both sides are a bunch of slimy little weasels who'd quite happily sell the whole country down the river if it fit their agenda.

I've gone from stay to leave and back again, and I'm still not convinced either way - the reality is most things are going to be a wash for the majority, there's prior for economists all arriving at a consensus that was fundamentally incorrect, the government has shown no desire to limit the immigration they DO control, so why should we expect any different, and the personnel we have who'll be doing the initial negotiations I wouldn't trust to negotiate the purchase of a sandwich, so I have little faith in EU reform should we remain or a favourable deal should we leave.

My head says stay, my heart says it is time for something different.

But is whole line of conversation is nothing to do with GW specifically, and I'm pretty sure there's a thread in OT for broader discussion.

 Azreal13 wrote:
Boris aside

Hmmm. Don't want this to go more OT so check out the other thread.

No need, I qualified the statement.

 Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote:
I look at Australia and think: there's a non-EU country, but they still manage to play GW games and wargame in general, and they survive.

Aren't GW sales falling off a cliff in Australia over the last couple of years?

Herzlos wrote:

 Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote:
I look at Australia and think: there's a non-EU country, but they still manage to play GW games and wargame in general, and they survive.

Aren't GW sales falling off a cliff in Australia over the last couple of years?

And aren't prices out of whack there? Pretty sure I keep reading "your kidney" every time somebody comments australian prices

 zedmeister wrote:

 Eiríkr wrote:
... snip ...

Check your bile. There's plenty of reasons and motivations for voting either way. Voting Leave does not make one a Xenophobic fascist or a racist scumbag any more than voting Remain makes one an UK loathing Oikophobe or a loopy euro federalist.

I have to say it's important to remember that the great majority of people voting for or against believe they are doing the best for the country.

tneva82 wrote:

Herzlos wrote:

 Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote:
I look at Australia and think: there's a non-EU country, but they still manage to play GW games and wargame in general, and they survive.

Aren't GW sales falling off a cliff in Australia over the last couple of years?

And aren't prices out of whack there? Pretty sure I keep reading "your kidney" every time somebody comments australian prices

Generally about 50-100% higher (with some exceptions). For some items, it used to be possible to get stock direct from the UK retail at less than the Aus trade rates.


Automatically Appended Next Post:

 Kilkrazy wrote:

I have to say it's important to remember that the great majority of people voting for or against believe they are doing the best for the country.

Agreed. There's just been so much lies and disinformation I'm not sure anyone actually knows what's going on.

Exports and imports will be harder and that alone will make many small/medium business close.

Prices of transportation inside the UK is now ridiculously high and with the vote out its going to get even worse.

Today I went to Morrison's and was wondering how simple things like imported fruits that are already so bloody expensive will actually be a bargain after UK is out. Fruit is just an example how UK needs to heavy rely on importing in order to have things they do not produce.

So yeah overall is going to be nasty to the average guy because the bill is going to be heavy.

Simply putting GW and others companies will just transfer the higher shipping/tax/customs bill to you.

 Kilkrazy wrote:
I have to say it's important to remember that the great majority of people voting for or against believe they are doing the best for the country.

That was the point I was trying to make as well as the fact that there'll have to be some sort reconciliation post-vote.

Herzlos wrote:

 Kilkrazy wrote:

I have to say it's important to remember that the great majority of people voting for or against believe they are doing the best for the country.

Agreed. There's just been so much lies and disinformation I'm not sure anyone actually knows what's going on.

I have to say it's important to remember the great majority of people spreading lies and disinformation believe they are doing the best for their country club

When will the leave happen? I read the contracts make it two years after the referendum. Is that correct?

Warhams-77 wrote:
When will the leave happen? I read the contracts make it two years after the referendum. Is that correct?

Should Leave prevail, it could be anytime. It will formally start when the British Government official invoke article 50 of the Lisbon treaty. I think a withdrawal from the EU will take longer than 2 years.

 zedmeister wrote:

Warhams-77 wrote:
When will the leave happen? I read the contracts make it two years after the referendum. Is that correct?

Should Leave prevail, it could be anytime. It will formally start when the British Government official invoke article 50 of the Lisbon treaty. I think a withdrawal from the EU will take longer than 2 years.

In order to begin leaving the EU, the government first must prepare a bill. This must be voted through Parliament to become an Act of Parliament to enable the process.

There's not saying that actually will be possible, and it can't happen overnight.

Assuming it will got through, the nominal time to unwind from the Lisbon treaty and so on is two years. As no-one has done it before, we don't know how long it actually will take.

At the same time as carrying out the above processes, the government will have to organise legislation, negotiations and treaties to replace the various EU stuff that UK will be pulled out of. These would include for example, the Free Market and the European Arrest Warrant system.

I think all the above might not be able to be accomplished in the life of this parliament.

 Kilkrazy wrote:

 zedmeister wrote:

Warhams-77 wrote:
When will the leave happen? I read the contracts make it two years after the referendum. Is that correct?

Should Leave prevail, it could be anytime. It will formally start when the British Government official invoke article 50 of the Lisbon treaty. I think a withdrawal from the EU will take longer than 2 years.

In order to begin leaving the EU, the government first must prepare a bill. This must be voted through Parliament to become an Act of Parliament to enable the process.

There's not saying that actually will be possible, and it can't happen overnight.

Assuming it will got through, the nominal time to unwind from the Lisbon treaty and so on is two years. As no-one has done it before, we don't know how long it actually will take.

At the same time as carrying out the above processes, the government will have to organise legislation, negotiations and treaties to replace the various EU stuff that UK will be pulled out of. These would include for example, the Free Market and the European Arrest Warrant system.

I think all the above might not be able to be accomplished in the life of this parliament.

Don't forget the whole "celtic complication" - us Wildlings will doubtless be getting uppity if the vote is Leave down south but not here, and the whole Irish situation is a potential catastrofeth in the making that nobody on either side seems to want to consider. Even without UK & EU bureaucracy or unfamiliar previously-unused treaty rules to deal with, the UK's own political situation means the two year target is probably very optimistic.

 Kilkrazy wrote:
There is a reason why 90% of business leaders and economists think leaving the EU is a bad idea.

Because they don't ever prefer the status quo?

But in answer to the OP I don't thing that there will be any noticeable change in the Gaming market beyond currency fluctuations.

The major component in miniature manufacture is labour and costs will drop in this regard if anything.

The tariff issue is a non-starter to me. I don't see anyone being petty enough to impose taxes as this will meet with the same response. BMW sells 230k cars last year in the UK; I don't see Frau Merkel putting the kibosh on that or visa versa. Our money talks as well as anyone else's.

Brexit is not a vote out of Europe but rather the EU. Trade will continue as it has always done.

 Kilkrazy wrote:
There is a reason why 90% of business leaders and economists think leaving the EU is a bad idea.

I thought it was 90% of macro-economists thought it would lead to uncertainty and carries risk. I don't think macroeconomists can predict anything beyond "there may be uncertainty"

Uncertainty and risk causes economic problems such as lack of investment.

 Kilkrazy wrote:
Uncertainty and risk causes economic problems such as lack of investment.

Which will no longer be the case the second the vote is announced.

Once the die is cast investment restarts.

 Eiríkr wrote:

 Kilkrazy wrote:
There is a reason why 90% of business leaders and economists think leaving the EU is a bad idea.

Unfortunately the average Middle Englander thinks their own internal advice is superior to the professionals in service. Literally every single bank, monetary foundation and stock broker has commented on Brexit lowering the value of Sterling and the British economy. But what do they know? Take back our shores! Britain for British folk! Immigrants! Turkey! Vote LEAVE and take CONTROL!

What a bag of spank; I sorely despise this folk who are voting out. It's going to wreck havoc in the British Isles, and not just economically. The people who are wanting to leave and cast the EU a sour eye will be the first to complain when certain rights and liberties are stripped away by successive Tory governments (because we sure as gak ain't seeing Labour in power for another decade) that were otherwise protected by the European Union.

The reason the banks, large corporations and monetary foundations want us to remain is because it directly benefits them, they can take more money from the average working Brit when they get to make the rules.

You see the EU parliament is a complete farce, they have no power, the power is in the hands of the 28 non elected EU commissioners, who are completely above the law(mostly politicians who failed in their own country) and make the laws as they see fit, lobbyists from the big corporations pressure them into making rules that suit them. It's anti democratic and anti competitive, if you make 50 laws a pillow case has to conform to it makes it harder for smaller businesses to conform but much easier for larger corporations who have the money to invest in conforming to all the extra regulation.

The UK economy is majority service based and the bulk of our economy is dependant on internal UK trade, only 10% of our economy is dependant on the eurozone and this is shrinking as the eurozone stagnates/declines.

In 2014 there was a trade deficit of 61 billion GBP between the UK and EU member states(we just love our BMWs, Audi's, Mercs and VW's), the EU especially Germany is dependant on us, we prop up their economy and that of the economically failing countries too. They need us more than we need them. If they start taxing our imports, we start taxing theirs and in that situation due to the huge deficit we would be much better off, because they sell us £61,000,000,000 more than we sell to them.

The only risk of leaving is the uncertainty, once things stabilise Britain will be much better off, we can negotiate better trade deals with parts of the world that we cant under EU governance.

So please do some research before you make yourself look a bit silly, when you actually do the research there's really no argument for the remain vote, only rhetoric and fear-mongering.

As for GW, in the end GW like all UK businesses will thrive in years after a successful leave vote.

Brexit bad, period. Rather than paraphrase, here's some research notes from "The Street", a U.S.-based financial media company. Their market analysis is in-depth, no-nonsense and unbiased.

-----------

Let's start with the economic impact within Britain. Economists widely accept that leaving the EU is bad for the U.K.'s economic prospects over nearly all foreseeable time horizons. Britain's economy has already begun to slow in anticipation of the referendum, with business investment experiencing severe contractions as many put spending and hiring decisions on hold. The overarching concern is that a decision to leave would stoke this uncertainty, serving to undermine business and consumer confidence, thereby stunting economic growth.

Further into the future, the fear is that an exit would effectively eliminate Britain's positioning as a dominant trading partner. The country is considered a base for European operations and financial market interdependence, with more than 75% of all EU capital markets business conducted out of the U.K. Unwinding this interdependence would be a complex, lengthy and costly process. Britain would also lose its regulatory power: Without a seat at the table, it would not be able to influence future regulation. Cross-border economic activity would likely grind to a halt as the U.K. would lose its EU-wide passporting rights, which accounts for three-quarters of all cross-border EU activity. It appears that the perceived freedom from EU membership would be more than offset by the extreme limitations such a move would raise; if anything, we would expect a Brexit to lead the country down a far more inward, insular and isolated economic path.

It is easy to view the referendum as a domestic issue for the U.K. alone. This is narrow-minded in our view, however, as we believe a vote to leave would raise a number of important questions and uncertainties. The EU's single market enables firms to base many of their capital market activities and conduct much of their EU-wide business from the U.K. The country's expertise in capital markets means it plays a valuable role in shaping the future of the EU's capital markets union project (the initiative launched by the European Commission in 2014 to catalyze cross-border investment in the EU, increase funding and form a cohesive regulatory framework). In fact, European's growth prospects are highly contingent on the successful implementation of the initiative. If Britain left the EU, the project would likely run out of steam and sully the path toward the union's long-term prosperity.

Referendum aside, Europe as a continent stands at political, economic and financial crossroads. The EU is far from a perfect union, but one that gives the region the best chance to return to economic stability and growth over the long term. If the centerpiece of its economy were to pack up its bags and leave, the decision would unwind 25 years of integration while sparking incredible political turmoil, economic uncertainty and capital market disruption on both sides.

What does this mean for the United States? If the so- called Brexit did happen, the U.S. would emerge as the unilateral safe-haven investment. Although this may seem like a positive on the surface, the result would mean continued inflows into our currency and financial markets, sending already-low bond yields even lower and already-stretched equity valuations even higher. Even more, the inflows would cause the value of the U.S. dollar to appreciate at a time when our own economy is struggling to gain traction, create jobs and drive real growth (not growth created by monetary policy). We reflected on why a soft dollar benefits U.S. businesses in a recent note (click here to read).

If we have learned anything about our economy over the past year and a half, we know just how important global stability is to the long-term health of our own economic and financial market interests. Any added uncertainty is negative, no matter how you spin

----------


I hope this gives everybody some objective perspective. relative to this matter, that's bigger than toy soldiers.

 notprop wrote:

 Kilkrazy wrote:
Uncertainty and risk causes economic problems such as lack of investment.

Which will no longer be the case the second the vote is announced.

Once the die is cast investment restarts.

If the vote is to Remain, there will be a huge sigh of relief, the stock market and GBP will strengthen, and investment will carry on. Because everyone will know the situation.

if the vote is to Leave, it throws the country into another period of doubt and uncertainty, while the government works out what to do and gradually tries to do it, and everyone sees what the results are. This could last over two years.

 notprop wrote:
The tariff issue is a non-starter to me. I don't see anyone being petty enough to impose taxes as this will meet with the same response. BMW sells 230k cars last year in the UK; I don't see Frau Merkel putting the kibosh on that or visa versa. Our money talks as well as anyone else's.

Brexit is not a vote out of Europe but rather the EU. Trade will continue as it has always done.

You think they will let UK to cherry pick whatever they wish from EU and ignore what they don't?-)

As if. Brexit fans are in for cool shower if they think EU will treat them lightly if they leave.

 BigWaaagh wrote:
Brexit bad, period. Rather than paraphrase, here's some research notes from "The Street", a U.S.-based financial media company. Their market analysis is in-depth, no-nonsense and unbiased.

-----------

Let's start with the economic impact within Britain. Economists widely accept that leaving the EU is bad for the U.K.'s economic prospects over nearly all foreseeable time horizons. Britain's economy has already begun to slow in anticipation of the referendum, with business investment experiencing severe contractions as many put spending and hiring decisions on hold. The overarching concern is that a decision to leave would stoke this uncertainty, serving to undermine business and consumer confidence, thereby stunting economic growth.

Further into the future, the fear is that an exit would effectively eliminate Britain's positioning as a dominant trading partner. The country is considered a base for European operations and financial market interdependence, with more than 75% of all EU capital markets business conducted out of the U.K. Unwinding this interdependence would be a complex, lengthy and costly process. Britain would also lose its regulatory power: Without a seat at the table, it would not be able to influence future regulation. Cross-border economic activity would likely grind to a halt as the U.K. would lose its EU-wide passporting rights, which accounts for three-quarters of all cross-border EU activity. It appears that the perceived freedom from EU membership would be more than offset by the extreme limitations such a move would raise; if anything, we would expect a Brexit to lead the country down a far more inward, insular and isolated economic path.

It is easy to view the referendum as a domestic issue for the U.K. alone. This is narrow-minded in our view, however, as we believe a vote to leave would raise a number of important questions and uncertainties. The EU's single market enables firms to base many of their capital market activities and conduct much of their EU-wide business from the U.K. The country's expertise in capital markets means it plays a valuable role in shaping the future of the EU's capital markets union project (the initiative launched by the European Commission in 2014 to catalyze cross-border investment in the EU, increase funding and form a cohesive regulatory framework). In fact, European's growth prospects are highly contingent on the successful implementation of the initiative. If Britain left the EU, the project would likely run out of steam and sully the path toward the union's long-term prosperity.

Referendum aside, Europe as a continent stands at political, economic and financial crossroads. The EU is far from a perfect union, but one that gives the region the best chance to return to economic stability and growth over the long term. If the centerpiece of its economy were to pack up its bags and leave, the decision would unwind 25 years of integration while sparking incredible political turmoil, economic uncertainty and capital market disruption on both sides.

What does this mean for the United States? If the so- called Brexit did happen, the U.S. would emerge as the unilateral safe-haven investment. Although this may seem like a positive on the surface, the result would mean continued inflows into our currency and financial markets, sending already-low bond yields even lower and already-stretched equity valuations even higher. Even more, the inflows would cause the value of the U.S. dollar to appreciate at a time when our own economy is struggling to gain traction, create jobs and drive real growth (not growth created by monetary policy). We reflected on why a soft dollar benefits U.S. businesses in a recent note (click here to read).

If we have learned anything about our economy over the past year and a half, we know just how important global stability is to the long-term health of our own economic and financial market interests. Any added uncertainty is negative, no matter how you spin

----------


I hope this gives everybody some objective perspective. relative to this matter, that's bigger than toy soldiers.

It's not even slightly objective and does not outline any of the critical points I made, which are fact and are why we should be voting to leave.

The US's interest lies in TTIP, which frankly is terrifying...


Automatically Appended Next Post:

tneva82 wrote:

 notprop wrote:
The tariff issue is a non-starter to me. I don't see anyone being petty enough to impose taxes as this will meet with the same response. BMW sells 230k cars last year in the UK; I don't see Frau Merkel putting the kibosh on that or visa versa. Our money talks as well as anyone else's.

Brexit is not a vote out of Europe but rather the EU. Trade will continue as it has always done.

You think they will let UK to cherry pick whatever they wish from EU and ignore what they don't?-)

As if. Brexit fans are in for cool shower if they think EU will treat them lightly if they leave.

Yes, because as I said, there is a trade deficit with the EU, £61,000,000,000, any tariffs imposed will have a negative effect on the EU, not the UK because of this.

If lets say a 20% tax was put on trade between the UK and the EU, that would make the UK £12.2 billion a year better off.

If we leave, trade with the EU will continue, business as usual.

 Kilkrazy wrote:

 notprop wrote:

 Kilkrazy wrote:
Uncertainty and risk causes economic problems such as lack of investment.

Which will no longer be the case the second the vote is announced.

Once the die is cast investment restarts.

If the vote is to Remain, there will be a huge sigh of relief, the stock market and GBP will strengthen, and investment will carry on. Because everyone will know the situation.

if the vote is to Leave, it throws the country into another period of doubt and uncertainty, while the government works out what to do and gradually tries to do it, and everyone sees what the results are. This could last over two years.

Sigh of relief lol from who. All the talk is scaremongering. No one has a clue. Frankly quicker uk is out the better. Both in and out politicians are full of crap but the eu is a disease. The UK gets crapped all over. It might be worse being out but its a risk worth taking.

If we weren't in the eu and had to vote to join or stay as we are, it would be stay as we are.