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IG Tank Killing
(Or dispelling the myth of the Vendetta)

I had a long train ride this morning, so figured while I was sitting doing nothing that I’d calculate up the kill percentages and the benefit/cost ratio of kill percentage/points cost. With all the hubbub about the Vendetta (and to a lesser degree the Devil Dog), I wanted to run the numbers to see if the new codex does away with the old adage of “Infantry Kill Tanks/Tanks Kill Infantry” – well, at least the “Infantry Kill Tanks” side of that equation. I was actually really surprised with the results. I started with what I thought would be the most likely used units for this and modified as I saw something that I thought would make it appreciably better. All of my calculations were based on the following assumptions:

1. Target is not in cover (if you want to, you can just halve everything if you want to see what the numbers look like for targets in cover)
2. Target is AV14 (I mean, I can, and probably should, run calculations for other sets of Armor Values, but we’re talking about Tank Killing here – Land Raiders and Leman Russes, not transports)
3. Any melta weapons are within their half-range to maximize armor penetration
4. Where the “Bring it Down!” (BiD!) order has been factored into the calculation, the probability of that unit passing it’s Leadership roll has been included in the calculation.
5. The probability of a hit for blast templates was based the thought that you place the center of the marker in the center of the tank so that you hit with the scatter dice 1/3 of the time, plus the probability of deviating less than 2”. I’m assuming that if you deviate more than 2”, the center of the marker is off the vehicle and the strength of your blast is then halved and you won’t get a kill shot.


Results – Effectiveness:

This is purely a gauge of what unit has the best chance of killing AV14, regardless of cost. The percentile next to the unit name is the probability of scoring a kill in a single round. Here are your anti-tank units ranked from most to least effective.

1. Company Command Squad w/ 4 Melta, BiD!, Vox (114%)
2. Company Command Squad w/ 4 Melta, BiD! (94%)
3. Platoon Command Squad w/ 4 Melta, BiD!, Vox, Commissar (0.93%)
4. Platoon Command Squad w/ 4 Melta, BiD!, Vox (88%)
5. Company Command Squad w/ 4 Melta (85%)
6. Platoon Command Squad w/ 4 Melta, BiD! Commissar (79%)
7. Demolisher w/ MM Sponsons, KC Pask (75%)
8. Platoon Command Squad w/ 4 Melta, BiD! (69%)
9. Veterans w/ 3 Melta (64%)
10. Platoon Command Squad w/ 4 Melta (64%)
11. Special Weapons Squad w/ 3 Melta (48%)
12. Demolisher w/ MM Sponsons (45%)
13. Storm Troopers w/ 2 Melta (42%)
14. Devil Dog w/ MM (35%)
15. Vanquisher w/ Lascannon, Pask (26%)
16. Devil Dog (19%)
17. Vanquisher w/ Lascannon (15%)
18. Vendetta (13%)
19. Heavy Weapon Squad w/ 3 Lascannon (8%)


Result – Cost Effectiveness:

So, I figured, well, what’s the best deal then? I mean, Knight Commander Pask in a Demolisher looks really good there! Granted, he’ll run you 245 points. Let’s look then at dividing that kill percentage by the cost – see how much bang you get for your buck. And this is how things ranked up. The number in parentheses is the percentage divided by the points cost.

1. Company Command Squad w/ 4 Melta, BiD!, Vox (1.19)
2. Platoon Command Squad w/ 4 Melta, BiD!, Vox (1.17)
3. Company Command Squad w/ 4 Melta, BiD! (1.05)
4. Platoon Command Squad w/ 4 Melta, BiD! (0.98)
5. Company Command Squad w/ 4 Melta (0.94)
6. Platoon Command Squad w/ 4 Melta (0.91)
7. Platoon Command Squad w/ 4 Melta, BiD!, Vox, Commissar (0.84)
8. Platoon Command Squad w/ 4 Melta, BiD! Commissar (0.76)
9. Special Weapons Squad w/ 3 Melta (0.73)
10. Veterans w/ 3 Melta (0.64)
11. Storm Troopers w/ 2 Melta (0.40)
12. Demolisher w/ MM Sponsons, KC Pask (0.31)
13. Devil Dog w/ MM (0.24)
14. Demolisher w/ MM Sponsons (0.23)
15. Devil Dog (0.15)
16. Vanquisher w/ Lascannon, Pask (0.12)
17. Vendetta (0.10)
18. Vanquisher w/ Lascannon (0.09)
19. Heavy Weapon Squad w/ 3 Lascannon (0.08)



Discussion:

What are some of the generalities we can take away from this?
- Melta weapons kill AV14 more reliably than anything else
- More meltas are better than less
- “Bring it Down!” works extremely well with meltas
- Voxes are more cost-effective than Commissars when it comes to making sure that leadership rolls for Orders are made
- Twin-linking lascannons – whether by “Bring it Down!” or as weapon on their own aren’t nearly as effective as meltas

I’m sure you noticed that I didn’t calculate the kill percentage for every infantry unit with the “Bring it Down!” order and that I only analyzed it for the Company Command Squads and Platoon Command Squads. While “Bring it Down!” will improve the effectiveness of tank-killing in other units, the superiority of 4 Meltas vs. 3 Meltas is of such a margin that it wouldn’t substantially change the ranking of squads with 3 Meltas using the Order compared to squads with 4 Meltas that don’t use it.

I was pretty surprised with some of these results. Frankly, I’d expected both the Devil Dog and the Vendetta to be more effective overall. I’d also expected Veteran Squads (one of my favorite units) to perform more effectively. I was pretty surprised to see that from a cost/benefit perspective that a Special Weapon Squad with 3 Meltas is a better deal than a Veteran Squad with 3 Meltas. (I imagine, though, if we were back in the old Codex where you only had to take 5 Vets to a Squad, this would be different.) I was pretty pleasantly surprised by how effective Pask in a Demolisher could be, even though from a cost/benefit perspective, it runs lower down the list. And frankly, I was surprised that from a cost/benefit perspective that even as expensive as Stormtroopers are that they’re still a better deal for killing tanks than Heavy Weapon Squads are.

Which actually brings up another good point. Stormtroopers can infiltrate – putting them in a better position to be able to unleash their melta attacks. You’ll notice this analysis does not take into account the range of the weapon, the mobility of the weapon platform, or the ability of that platform to get the weapon into a viable location to attack. These are much more complex variables that cannot so easily be taken into account. When I originally started this analysis this morning, I’d intended on looking at things like CCS in a Chimera, CCS in a Valk, CCS in a Vendetta, as that has a major impact on the cost/benefit ratio. Unfortunately, while we can easily quantify the additional cost of having a Chimera, Valk, or Vendetta, we cannot as easily quantify the additional benefit (although for the Vendetta we could simply add it’s kill % to that of it’s transported squad, but that still doesn’t encapsulate the full utility of it’s use.) So, yeah, there are other variables I didn’t look at in this, but I figured that this would be a good place to start for discussion on the effectiveness of these units.

Really cool really interesting, but a you pointed out yourself. Getting your melta's with-in 6 inches of a tanks is easier said than done. Would love to see the math if you took melta's out of the equation all together.

Well you certainly do have too much time on your hands.

But nice work overall. Of course there is the whole issue of getting your command squad with 4 meltas to within 6" of the Landraider but it's good to know what's the most effective. I think we'll start seeing SWS with 3 meltas in Chimeras/Vendettas as suicide squads as it seems to be an efficient means to deal with armor (and I'd rather sacrifice the SWS than a CCS).

thanks for the hard work DBM, great job!
i can already hear people saying what you said about the dropping 5 man vet squad with meltas. they will be sorely missed.

Ozymandias wrote:Well you certainly do have too much time on your hands.

But nice work overall. Of course there is the whole issue of getting your command squad with 4 meltas to within 6" of the Landraider but it's good to know what's the most effective.

I've been doing this for a decade - they just jump out of a Chimera. Gives you about 20" worth of range to work with.

Make no mistake - orders are nice things to have, but the officer's job is to die gloriously in the service of his god-emperor.

Interesting post


I am of the understanding that a command squad can not have 4 meltas and a vox, since (iirc, could be wrong) the vox carrier can not take a meltagun?

I would of liked to see a veteran squad w/ 3 meltas and a vox placed in there IMO this is a great way to get BS4 (w/ BiD!) since I really do not feel like risking my CCS hehe.


I am still probably going to take a unit of lascannons (either a HWS or Vend), if simply for the fact that Lascannons are still very good at taking out AV12/13 with, and since I *need* to take out enemy transports asap... Lascannons being able to do so on turn 1 helps.

Great Job DBM! But I thought that it is common knowledge that half-range meltas would always be the best tank killer? It might be best to look at AV 12 as only a few armies can put mass AV 14. When dealing with the lower AV values, I believe that range will become a major factor. Dealing with a 3 AV 14 units is a lot easier for meltas than 6+ 11 AV or better units.

thanks for all the work you did. half range meltas are awesome in that role but, like everyone is saying, getting them there is the problem. i used 3 attack bikes with MM for my blood angel 3rd edition force; they were the only heavy weapons that i actually wanted to blood rage forward!

Against armor 12 or less (which is a majority of the vehicles in the game) I personally love the autocannon. Its way cheaper than a lascannon and outperforms the missile launcher against anything armor 12 or less.

I appreciate the work you've put in here, so I hate to be the math nazi and point out that it is impossible to have more than 100% chance of doing anything. Its a common mistake to simply sum the individual weapons' chances and call it good, but it doesn't really work that way.

That said, your rankings are probably pretty close to accurate, even if the actual numbers are off. Units with the most anti-tank weapons (like the command squads) would actually be slightly worse in the rankings, and units that only fired one weapon would be slightly higher.

Still, it shows that command squads are right up there vying for top spot. I'd be curious to see how they fare if they cost 55 points more, since I'd only take them with their required Chimera delivery system.

A question: When are orders given? I ask this because I plan to have my melta squads in Chimeras (as I stated earlier), and the timing of the orders will make a big difference on whether or not I can use BID. If I can drive up, jump out, and then give them BID, then we're in business. If the order has to be given before they get out, then BID is pretty much useless for meltas since units can't be given orders while in transports.

Now that I think about it, I kind of hope they can't get BID after jumping out. That way I won't be tempted to disembark from the Chimera. Drive-by meltas for me!

One things for certain: it's easier. Since almost all of the IG vehicles are squadrons now.

Yeah, so as BoxANT was the first to point out and as I realized on my train ride home tonight, PCS and CCS can't have both 4 meltas and a vox. However, I imagine if I redid the numbers with them with 3 meltas and a vox that they'd still come out pretty close to the top of the stack.

And yeah, it is still pretty common knowledge that meltas kill tanks best, but there's still a lot of folks trying to rely on lascannons to do this in 5E and it's just not a very viable way to do it.

The other thing I did on the way home was run a bunch of numbers for weapons of different strengths vs. AV12. My logic was this - I figure I can get a unit with meltas pretty close to a relatively slow moving tank whether it's by using a Chimera, Valk, or old-fashioned infiltrate. Killing something fast like a Valk or Vendetta with a melta is going to be a lot harder, though (particularly as that flight stand is nearly 6 inches in itself - there goes your 2D6 pen, right?) Sadly, I found that most common weapons that get used vs. AV12 are still pretty pitiful in the hands of the BS3 Guardsmen. I estimated that it would take 36 S7 shots to kill an AV12 vehicle. That's 18 autocannons! And yeah, while if anyone can do it, its the Guard, but it's still a pain. To reliably kill AV12, you either need to fire a lot of S7 shots, or be firing more S8 and S9 guns (I think I also estimated it would take something like 15 missile launchers to take out the AV12 vehicle.)

Anyway, I'll post more later as I continue my analyses.

foil7102 wrote:Would love to see the math if you took melta's out of the equation all together.

Nah, no you don't - it's pretty pitiful.

Sir Crispy wrote:I appreciate the work you've put in here, so I hate to be the math nazi and point out that it is impossible to have more than 100% chance of doing anything. Its a common mistake to simply sum the individual weapons' chances and call it good, but it doesn't really work that way.

You're right in that you can't have more than 100% chance of doing something, but you can have an expected outcome of greater than one depending on the number of attempts at something. I'm curious where you think my numbers are off. I mean, I'm not a statistics whiz, but I've been doing things like this for a while - granted, I still make mistakes, so I'm not claiming that all these are correct. I'm mainly hoping to show folks some relative comparisons. It's my understanding that orders are given immediately before shooting, so yeah, driving up, jumping out and then giving BID should work. What I'm wondering about is if you get double 1's for BiD! then can you do Move, Move, Move! or Incoming! afterwards so that you can move, shoot, move?

BoxANT wrote:I would of liked to see a veteran squad w/ 3 meltas and a vox placed in there IMO this is a great way to get BS4 (w/ BiD!) since I really do not feel like risking my CCS hehe.

You know, part of the reason I didn't include it was because in the write-ups I've seen no one's been able to confirm whether or not Storm Troopers or Vets can have voxes. That said, I'm with Janthkin - Command Squads are for giving their lives for the Emperor. And I figure, by putting them in Chimeras I can keep them safe a little longer (not to mention still give orders from them). As far as lascannons go, I was really disappointed at how bad lascannons are vs. AV14. I need to look at some numbers for how they go vs. AV13 and AV12, but one conclusion I took from this was that IG lascannons are SO BAD that I really don't see any reason why you should ever upgrade a hull HB on a Leman Russ to one (unless it's for looks or something). I don't foresee myself taking many lascannons either in HWS or Infantry platoons anytime soon. I did come up with a rather interesting solution to fast AV12 transports, though - too quick for meltas to get near? The Executioner will actually be a pretty good light to medium vehicle killer.

Ozymandias wrote:Well you certainly do have too much time on your hands.

I was working in San Francisco today and the train from Gilroy takes about two hours. Frankly, it was kind of nice to sit down with a calculator and a pad of paper and run all these numbers by hand rather than just tossing them all in Excel and letting the computer do all the work. I feel like I have a better sense of the real probabilities when I do it by hand - otherwise I don't really feel like I know where the numbers come from.

I'm also running some numbers on the relative effectiveness of different types of Leman Russ sponsons. Versus Meq, HB and PC sponsons actually have the same cost/benefit ratio (while the PC can kill more, the HB are cheaper) and the cost/benefit ratio of MM sponsons is the same as having no sponsons at all - this isn't to say that the MM sposons are bad. They're just not any better of a deal points per kill-wise than a naked Russ. And really, even the additional benefit of the PC and HB sponsons are pretty marginal. They don't really jump out above no sponsons at all. I would have liked to do something for HF sponsons as well, but I'm not sure what the average number of models you get under the flamer template is.

In comparing the turret weapons of LRBTs, Eradicators, Demolishers, and Executioners vs Meq, LRBTs had the best cost/benefit ratio.

Consequently, after running all these numbers, this is what I'm looking at for the backbone of my Guard army under the new Codex:

2x CCS w/ 4 Melta, Chimera
2x PCS w/ 4 Melta, Chimera
4x Infantry Squads w/ Flamer, HB
4x Leman Russ Battle Tanks

This runs to 1400. The CCS and PCS jump out to intercept transports and then take out backfield tanks. The 4 LRBTs are placed in my backfield and are screened by the Infantry Squads. The Infantry squads are designed to be defensive, taking on infantry that want to assault the tanks. Beyond this, I've got lots of other options to play with - and a good amount of points to do it in. My initial thought is an Inquis+Mystics and Pask in an Executioner to hold the backfield against Deep Strikers. Should be fun! That will run me close to 1850.

The ideal way to calculate the chance of at least one event is to calculate (1 - chance of no events happening). Here's what I get:

CCS, 4 meltas, BID: 76%
CCS, 3 meltas, BID, vox: 68%
PCS, 4 meltas, BID: 67%
Vets, 3 meltas, BID: 65%
PCS, 3 meltas, BID, vox: 59%
SWS, 3 meltas, BID: 57%
Vets, 3 meltas: 56%
PCS, 4 meltas: 55%
Demolisher, Pasc: 53%
SWS, 3 meltas: 45%

I could be off if I didn't understand the new equipment. I'm least sure about Pasc's abilities. Also, I'm up late trying to take care of a baby, so my brain probably isn't exactly in correct gear.

So the order is basically the same that you got, except the Demolisher dropped in rank. Vets aren't that much worse than CCS with 3 meltas since (as far as I understand it), the only difference is the Leadership value.

After adjusting for cost, I get:

1. PCS, 4 meltas, BID: 0.96
2. PCS, 3 meltas, BID, vox: 0.91
3. SWS 3 meltas, BID: 0.87
4. CCS, 4 meltas, BID: 0.84
5. CCS, 3 meltas, BID, vox: 0.80
6. PCS, 4 meltas: 0.79
7. SWS 3 meltas: 0.69
8. Vets, 3 meltas, BID: 0.65
9. Vets, 3 meltas: 0.56
10. Demolisher, Pasc: 0.22

So, unless I got my points cost totally screwed up, SWS is a great bang for the buck. Too bad they can't have a dedicated Chimera.

EDIT: Added stats for PCS. Looks to be the best bang for the buck.

Sir Crispy is right. The OP's math doesnt reflect the probability to score a kill in a single round of shooting (as these can never go over 100%), it reflects the average amount of kills the unit would score in a single round of shooting (assuming you can kill an unendless amount in one round, which is impossible due to targetting rules).

I just added the stats for the PCS. Looks really promising.

I also looked at the stats if you add in a Chimera. Actual performance is unaffected against AV 14, of course, but the bang for the buck rankings change slightly. PCS and CCS with 4 meltas are on top, followed by PCS and CCS with 3 meltas/vox, with SWS next, followed by vets, and finally the demolisher.

The demolisher may be last as far as efficiency is concerned, but its heavy armor may justify it as a nice, hard to kill anchor to the anti-tank component of the army. I may try running a platoon with PCS/meltas with chimera, 2 infantry squads with chimera, and 2 SWS/meltas, and let the SWS squads jack the infantry squads' rides.

For cost effectiveness I would want to count a chimera for the HQ squads, at least as something for people to have in the back of their mind. Or perhaps another chart with range >12", since meltas would dominate short range anyway.

Why don't the HWS with lascannons get orders? Thats pretty much the only reason to take them, 1 order applies to 3 guns. 3x S10 and/or Twin Link.

Oh, the HWS with lascannons can get them, they just don't help much. They become as effective as a Vendetta - which, for all the bluster about it, isn't very when it comes to killing AV14.

The vendetta has S10 lascannons?

Gestalt wrote:The vendetta has S10 lascannons?

as far as I know the +1 str to weapons order i think your referring to doesnt exist and was just a rumor, but I could be wrong

People that claim to have read the codex say it exists, its not the same order as twin linking though. One of them is only from the CHQ, forget which.

In the IG Codex thread, Middle lists the six orders. +1 Strength isn't one of them.

So, uh, how do Melta guns compare to Lascannons at ranges over 12"?

Sir Crispy wrote:In the IG Codex thread, Middle lists the six orders. +1 Strength isn't one of them.

middle wrote:CHQ get those 3 and another 2. One is Bring it down! Gives your squad a re-roll to wound a nominated enemy MC OR +1armout pen if it is a tank. The other is Fire on my target! gives your squad twin linked against a nominated enemy unit.

I should have said +1 armor pen, which is the same as +1 str for vehicles. But it exists. This also means that the OP's calculations are using the wrong order.

Gestalt wrote:

Sir Crispy wrote:In the IG Codex thread, Middle lists the six orders. +1 Strength isn't one of them.

middle wrote:CHQ get those 3 and another 2. One is Bring it down! Gives your squad a re-roll to wound a nominated enemy MC OR +1armout pen if it is a tank. The other is Fire on my target! gives your squad twin linked against a nominated enemy unit.

I should have said +1 armor pen, which is the same as +1 str for vehicles. But it exists. This also means that the OP's calculations are using the wrong order.

Look at Pasc's ability. Its the same thing you've listed. Later in the thread, Middle said that he made a mistake and had accidentally listed Pasc's ability as an order. He clarified that Fire On My Target! re-rolls enemy cover saves and that Bring It Down! twin-links weapons.

Err, no - that was confused with Knight Commander Pask's ability. He gives +1 pen against tanks and re-rolled to wounds. Bring it down! gives twin-linked.

*Edit - Ninja'd by Sir Crispy!

I'm not incredibly surprised that my numbers were a little off - I'm out of practice with this stuff. Crispy, somehow, knowing that you were up late with the baby make me trust your numbers even more.

While it's a shame that SWS can't get a Chimera, looking at these numbers makes me think it's even more a shame that they can't get a Vox. You can find a way to give them a Chimera - you can't find a way to give them a Vox - and that's what really seems to boost BiD!.

My mistake then. How much does Fire on my Target! affect the numbers for a unit in cover then?

Succesful saves (approx. %):

6+ = 16.7%, with forced reroll 2.78%
5+ = 33.3%, with forced reroll 11.1%
4+ = 50%, with forced reroll 25%
3+ = 66.7%, with forced reroll 44.5%
2+ = 83.3%, with forced reroll 69.4%

From this, factor in BS by multiplying hit chance with the chance of a failed save (please note that the list above gives percentages of successful saves) to find out the chances of scoring a wound.

With a BS of 3, the better thing to do is:

6+ cover, reroll HIT
5+ cover, reroll HIT
4+ cover, reroll HIT/SAVE (equal improvement)
3+ cover, reroll SAVE
2+ cover, reroll SAVE

With a BS of 4, the better thing to do is:

6+ cover, reroll HIT
5+ cover, reroll HIT/SAVE (equal improvement)
4+ cover, reroll SAVE
3+ cover, reroll SAVE
2+ cover, reroll SAVE

I hope someone finds this useful.

Pretty much everybody that has played 5th ed for any amount of time knows that meltas at half range are the premiere anti-vehicle, especially against AV14.

The strength of the Vendetta, however, is its ability to provide a Str9 firebase from 48" away coupled with moderate to high mobility. A CCS with 4 meltas in a chimera is going to cost more than a single Vendetta, will have a much shorter threat radius, and will be much more vulnerable to side armor shots, assault troops, and other meltas.

For stopping a land raider, melta squad is ideal.

However, for popping rhinos or other light transports at range (forcing the embarked troops out before they can assault the guard lines), Vendettas are much better and synergize with the heavy tanks (which can actually shoot at some troops now, instead of armor). Likewise, for simply blowing away long range threats like Oblits, Broadsides, Monstrous Creatures, and high Toughness targets like Wraithlords and C'tan, the Vendetta is again superior.

sourclams wrote:However, for popping rhinos or other light transports at range (forcing the embarked troops out before they can assault the guard lines), Vendettas are much better and synergize with the heavy tanks (which can actually shoot at some troops now, instead of armor). Likewise, for simply blowing away long range threats like Oblits, Broadsides, Monstrous Creatures, and high Toughness targets like Wraithlords and C'tan, the Vendetta is again superior.

Vs AV14 is one thing, but when you start bringing the lighter stuff in there are better choices. Especially with pask vs MCs.

I don't know why a 6" move speed is being highly mobile. If you are going to move more than that isn't a devil dog more effective? (did I just say that?)

Gestalt wrote:

sourclams wrote:However, for popping rhinos or other light transports at range (forcing the embarked troops out before they can assault the guard lines), Vendettas are much better and synergize with the heavy tanks (which can actually shoot at some troops now, instead of armor). Likewise, for simply blowing away long range threats like Oblits, Broadsides, Monstrous Creatures, and high Toughness targets like Wraithlords and C'tan, the Vendetta is again superior.

Vs AV14 is one thing, but when you start bringing the lighter stuff in there are better choices. Especially with pask vs MCs.

I don't know why a 6" move speed is being highly mobile. If you are going to move more than that isn't a devil dog more effective? (did I just say that?)

Vend is highly mobile because it can easily get into optimal firing positions. In addition, it can easily run away from incoming melee threats.


They way I see it, Lascannons are still useful, they can hit targets without getting close, they are very good at penetrating transports (besides LR) and they can pop MC as well.

Meltas, of course, are the best armor killers in the game, but need to get very close. However, since IG no longer has easy access to cheap BS4 meltaguns (vets), we will have to explore all methods of armor killers.