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Made in us
Veteran Knight Baron in a Crusader





I'll start by saying this, I may be a bit biased. I like what has been done with 7th. If you don't like unbound armies, don't play against them. If you don't like maelstrom missions, play eternal war. If you want to field a cool army that is outside the realm of a normal FOC, go for it as long as your opponent agrees to it. They have given us the creativity to play the game the way we want and still be within the rules. Now to the point of my post:
Why would a company with no debt and £9mil in the bank that still turns a profit month after month and year after year be in any danger of going under? Yes, profits are down. This is the age of unemployment, recession and new video game systems. What gaming company hasn't lost some profit since the 2008 recession? Yet somehow (price gouging), they are able to remain profitable, continue paying dividends to shareholders and fill the bathtub almost as fast as it leaks. I know most of us would love to see GW sold off to someone else. However, as long as they are continuing to make a decent profit and remain debt free, I just don't see it happening. I also think their recovery since the 24% stock drop has been nothing short of remarkable. Even with people buying armies from friends and on ebay, and all the malcontents who said "feth it" when 7th was released, I would be willing to bet my army that their full year numbers will be somewhat better than their 6 month numbers just looking at stock prices. It may not be the best of times for GW, but I can't see a scenario where they would fold in the next 5 years based on the numbers. Thoughts?
   
Made in us
Badass "Sister Sin"






Camas, WA

Nope. People have been predicting their demise for 20 years; I don't think it's any more likely this time.

Looking for great deals on miniatures or have a large pile you are looking to sell off? Checkout Mindtaker Miniatures.
Live in the Pacific NW? Check out http://ordofanaticus.com
 
   
Made in nz
Heroic Senior Officer




New Zealand

Read some internet pages from the late 90s onward on this topic. You will find nothing has changed in the GW complaint and doom area.

Will be forever the same.

I personally dont think it will die any time soon. But im not keeping track really.
   
Made in us
Did Fulgrim Just Behead Ferrus?





Fort Worth, TX

Things are, however, worse for them today than they used to be. We'll know more when their yearly financial report comes out (this month, I think).

"Through the darkness of future past, the magician longs to see.
One chants out between two worlds: Fire, walk with me."
- Twin Peaks
"You listen to me. While I will admit to a certain cynicism, the fact is that I am a naysayer and hatchetman in the fight against violence. I pride myself in taking a punch and I'll gladly take another because I choose to live my life in the company of Gandhi and King. My concerns are global. I reject absolutely revenge, aggression, and retaliation. The foundation of such a method... is love. I love you Sheriff Truman." - Twin Peaks 
   
Made in us
Douglas Bader






Toofast wrote:
Why would a company with no debt and £9mil in the bank that still turns a profit month after month and year after year be in any danger of going under?


Because you have to look at trends, not single reports. And what we see now is that GW is losing market share and sales volume with no apparent hope of turning it around. Sure, they've kept the profit numbers acceptable, but only because of aggressive cost cutting and price increases (including day-1 DLC and larger, more expensive kits). And eventually GW are going to reach a point where there's nothing left to cut without making obvious sacrifices in quality, and prices can't go up any higher without sacrificing so many sales that it's a net loss. Meanwhile the rules are an absolute disaster, model releases are inconsistent in quality, and GW doesn't seem to see any problem with that. So that means that GW isn't ever going to increase sales by producing a superior product, they're entirely dependent on trying to milk the cash cow more efficiently and extract the maximum possible profit from their declining customer base.

And no, this doesn't mean that GW will collapse overnight. Most of their shareholders probably have no clue about GW's products and just look at the financial report, so it will probably be a while before they run out of ways to cover up the bad numbers and see a real collapse in stock prices. For example, the next financial report will include a sales spike from 7th edition, so it will probably look a lot better than a "normal" report and that will keep the shareholders happy a bit longer. But I wouldn't bet anything on GW's long-term future.

There is no such thing as a hobby without politics. "Leave politics at the door" is itself a political statement, an endorsement of the status quo and an attempt to silence dissenting voices. 
   
Made in ca
Angry Blood Angel Assault marine





That's what Enron, Lehman Brothers, Eaton said as well before they go bankrupt. Here's the real fact. No one can predict with 100% confident when a company goes under. But we can all gauge to a small degree on how well a company is doing. Just ask yourself, are you still spending thousands of dollars buying new gw products from gw and flgs? Is there an increase of new 40k players in your area? Are current warhammer players still playing the game? Or switching to other games and selling their armies?

For example I still buy the new rule book. But the price of models deterred me from buying new armies. And I actively pursued interested friends not to buy into 40k and play x-wing instead.
   
Made in us
Dakka Veteran





Sad thing is if GW lowered there prices on all the models I guarantee that they would generate a lot more business. Never understood why so many businesses ignore that fact. GW will be alright, they are still a very popular game and will be for a long time to come (I hope).
   
Made in au
[MOD]
Making Stuff






Under the couch

Toofast wrote:
Why would a company with no debt and £9mil in the bank that still turns a profit month after month and year after year be in any danger of going under?

Because they have maintained what profitability they have by cutting costs. And they're running out of things to trim.

Games Day is gone. Stores have been reduced to ridiculous one-man affairs and where possible moved to cheaper locations. More and more of their product range has been shifted to Direct Only to cut down on inventory and production costs. Multiple products have been shifted into single, combined boxes to similarly cut down on inventory and production costs. Less-profitable lines have just been dropped. Regional offices have been closed or shrunk. US manufacturing has been stopped, with everything brought back in-house in Nottingham or outsourced to China. Tournament support and running their own events other than in-house stuff at Warhammer World has pretty much ceased. Website content has been reduced. Metal production has been replaced with cheaper (but somehow more expensive at retail) 'Fine'cast.

It's hard to see where else they can trim in order to keep propping up their falling sales volumes.



Yes, profits are down. This is the age of unemployment, recession and new video game systems.

And yet outside of GW's ivory tower, the wargames industry is booming.

Warmahordes keeps getting bigger. Despite everyone's predictions on seeing the standard of their original releases, Mantic keeps plugging away there and releasing new stuff. Warzone (which was in the '90s the biggest competitor for 40K) has made a return. Infinity, Malifaux, and a whole host of miniatures ranges from small companies that a decade ago wouldn't have lasted 10 minutes have just popped up out of nowhere. As of last September, 9 out of the 50 biggest Kickstarters of all time were gaming-related.

SciFi/Fantasy wargaming as a whole has never been in a better place.

And yet GW are struggling.


Yet somehow (price gouging), they are able to remain profitable,

...by reducing costs and raising prices...

continue paying dividends to shareholders...

...by borrowing money...

and fill the bathtub almost as fast as it leaks.

...with the emphasis on 'almost'.


I know most of us would love to see GW sold off to someone else.

I couldn't care less who owns GW.

What I would like to see is for GW to start paying attention to what everyone else in the industry is doing instead of hiding behind Kirby's moat and castle wall and just releasing whatever they feel like on the assumption that people will buy it because it has a GW logo on it.

I've been playing 40K for 20 years now. I don't hope for GW's demise. I would like nothing better than to have an 8th edition (I think I've pretty much given up on 7th at this point) that I can enjoy as much as I enjoyed 2nd and 5th. I would like to see them producing books that their designers can be proud to put their names on. I would love to see them releasing models that I look at and say 'Wow, I must have that!' like I used to. I would love to see them go back to encouraging independant sellers and gaming groups to promote their products through campaigns and promotions. I would love to see them supporting a vibrant, healthy tournament circuit.

But going by their performance over the last 3 or 4 years, I don't see any of that happening. Their self-absorbed, introspective approach to the gaming industry leaves them stuck in a rut. Instead of innovating, they're just trying to keep the '90s alive by constantly re-releasing different versions of the same thing. There's only so many time you can release the same dated models with a few more skulls added on, or new editions of the same ruleset with a few sections completely changed and only a random selection of the actual problems fixed before people start to wonder if there might be something else out there that is a better use for their time.

 
   
Made in gb
The Daemon Possessing Fulgrim's Body





Devon, UK

I like a good chat about GW finances as good as any, but I'm struggling to see what this has to do with 40K specifically that makes it more appropriate here than General?

Other than this thread has already happened in General of course, and has kinda gone as far as it can until the next set of figures is published.

We find comfort among those who agree with us - growth among those who don't. - Frank Howard Clark

The wise man doubts often, and changes his mind; the fool is obstinate, and doubts not; he knows all things but his own ignorance.

The correct statement of individual rights is that everyone has the right to an opinion, but crucially, that opinion can be roundly ignored and even made fun of, particularly if it is demonstrably nonsense!” Professor Brian Cox

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Made in us
Veteran Knight Baron in a Crusader





Just ask yourself, are you still spending thousands of dollars buying new gw products from gw and flgs?

Well let's tally it up. I moved to Hoover Alabama 2 months ago. I found out there's a GW 1/4 mile down the street from my house so I stopped in to see if I was interested in getting back into it. I was. I bought about 15 pots of paint, a new SW codex, 7th rules, basing material, large army case, land raider crusader, rhino, drop pod, terminator rune priest and some various other stuff. I just pre ordered the storm claw box. I think I'm around $750 in 2 months. I usually go in Wednesday morning when the new shipment comes in. Each week I watch the manager unload 5-10 boxes just of preorders. Last Saturday a friend ran the store due to the manager being out of town. He hit the numbers they expected for the whole weekend by halfway through the day on saturday. I wouldn't exactly say they're struggling to make sales.

Is there an increase of new 40k players in your area?

Yes. Most of the guys in our current league are fairly new players or old players with new armies. We have about 10-15 guys just in the "new player/army" category and those are just the regulars.

Are current warhammer players still playing the game?

Some have switched to other games but even at the local FLGS it's 60-70% 40k, 10-20% WFB and the rest a mixture of Xwing and PP games.

Or switching to other games and selling their armies?

I've seen a lot of armies traded around between players due to getting tired/bored of playing the same army but I don't see a mass migration to other games.


Automatically Appended Next Post:
To be fair, the results I'm seeing most likely have a lot to do with the area I live in. The median income here is over $80k but the cost of living is comparatively cheap. A nice 1 bedroom apartment here is $500-600 a month while you can get a nice house for $100-150k. I moved from Dublin Ohio where the median income was closer to $90k a year but it was $800-1000 a month for a decent 1 bedroom apartment and $200-250k for a nice house. Perhaps in areas with lower income / higher cost of living, 40k is losing popularity. Not sure if I'm supposed to say this publicly but numbers wise, the GW here averaged $1,200 a week last June. This June it averaged over $2,600 a week. Some of it can be attributed to the new rule set but I'm sure they aren't selling $1,400 a week in rule books so there's obviously new blood coming in and buying stuff. It also hasn't moved to a cheaper area. The area near the Galleria mall has the highest rent of all commercial property in the Birmingham area.

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2014/07/12 01:03:00


 
   
Made in ca
Lord of the Fleet






Halifornia, Nova Scotia

Just don't confuse your anecdotal evidence for any sort of international conclusion about the state of affairs of GW.

For your data, I've spent roughly 0$ on GW, but a few hundred on other systems/companies.

Mordian Iron Guard - Major Overhaul in Progress

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Made in us
Veteran Knight Baron in a Crusader





I wasnt, I was simply answering the questions asked by another poster. I am fully aware that the numbers of one GW in an upscale area in the middle of an economic boom have virtually zero affect on the financial health of an international company with hundreds of their own stores and thousands of FLGS stocking their products.
   
Made in au
Oberstleutnant






Perth, West Australia

Toofast wrote:
Is there an increase of new 40k players in your area?
No, any new gains have been in other games from what I've seen. Word of mouth turning hugely against GW has a lot to do with that.
Are current warhammer players still playing the game?
No, they're playing a number of other games and most have sold some or all of their stuff. I'm the only one still buying 40k somewhat due to being a modeler more than a gamer.

Regarding tabletop gaming in Australia, from one of the two largest online shops we have:
The Combat Company wrote:We are getting lots of questions about the Dystopian Wars v2 releases. These have been hugely popular. The book has out sold 40k v7 6:1. Stock is arriving and we are shipping first order in first order out. Please be patient and rest assured your orders will be sent ASAP.
Having your new edition outsold 6:1 like that is pretty damning. May be worse here in Aus due to regional pricing, but that alone is worth noting anyway.

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2014/07/12 01:13:27


 
   
Made in us
Veteran Knight Baron in a Crusader





I figured Australia would be almost done with 40k considering it has always cost twice as much there as it does almost anywhere else. Any reason the prices are so insane there?
   
Made in au
Oberstleutnant






Perth, West Australia

The underlying reason is that the prices were set years ago when the Aus dollar was very low, at 60% of the $US. It's now close to parity. The result is GW pocketing the 30-50% difference. It wouldn't have continued so long if people weren't encouraging it however so we're the ones to blame for putting up with it (I haven't given GWAU a cent at least). It doesn't help that the main Australian tabletop gaming forum doesn't allow mentioning of non-sponsors on the site, which means they're basically enforcing GWs regional pricing for them which I've said on there is fething ridiculous.
   
Made in de
Repentia Mistress





Santuary 101

A lot of things mentioned here are at best anecdotal and do not prove general trends. There could be places which are gaining players and there could be places which are losing players. There could also be shops which sell GW products/rule books like hotcakes and some which hardly move GW stock.

There are some which are closer to factual details which could answer the question. Such as stock price, and what was mentioned about store closures which may indicate the financial woes are building up. Those are probably a far more reliable metric than what you see selling around you.

Insaniak, you mentioned about borrowing money. This is one information I had not read about. Could you elaborate? This sounds interesting to know more about.

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2014/07/12 01:37:33


DS:70+S+G+M-B--IPw40k94-D+++A++/wWD380R+T(D)DM+

Avatar scene by artist Nicholas Kay. Give credit where it's due! 
   
Made in au
[MOD]
Making Stuff






Under the couch

Toofast wrote:
. Any reason the prices are so insane there?

Because they're still setting their prices based on the exchange rate from a decade ago.

But don't worry, GW are working on levelling the playing field by 'freezing' most Oz prices and raising the rest of the world to match. From the last 6-12 months or so it's generally only books (and digital downloads, because reasons) that are still crazily more expensive than overseas.


Automatically Appended Next Post:
 milkboy wrote:
There are some which are closer to factual details which could answer the question. Such as stock price, and what was mentioned about store closures which may indicate the financial woes are building up. Those are probably a far more reliable metric than what you see selling around you.

Stock price is not a reliable gauge of the actual health of a company. It's just a gauge of the stock market's perception of the health of a company.


Insaniak, you mentioned about borrowing money. This is one information I had not read about. Could you elaborate? This sounds interesting to know more about.

It's been mentioned in their financial reports on more than one occasion that they had borrowed money to pay dividends.

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2014/07/12 01:39:51


 
   
Made in ca
Regular Dakkanaut




.

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2014/10/18 05:07:27


 
   
Made in gb
The Daemon Possessing Fulgrim's Body





Devon, UK

 milkboy wrote:
A lot of things mentioned here are at best anecdotal and do not prove general trends. There could be places which are gaining players and there could be places which are losing players. There could also be shops which sell GW products/rule books like hotcakes and some which hardly move GW stock.

There are some which are closer to factual details which could answer the question. Such as stock price, and what was mentioned about store closures which may indicate the financial woes are building up. Those are probably a far more reliable metric than what you see selling around you.

Insaniak, you mentioned about borrowing money. This is one information I had not read about. Could you elaborate? This sounds interesting to know more about.


Well.. seeing as we're doing this.

Dismissing "anecdotal" evidence with the weight behind it that can be discovered by spending some time in the online community is folly. Especially when it is borne out by hard evidence (GW figures have been effectively flat for a number of years, until Jan this year, when they took a steep decline.)

Stock price is utterly irrelevant with regard to the financial health of a company, it is a reflection of what the market thinks the state of the company is, not how it really is.

The stock price is also artificially inflated right now, not because GW have done a single thing different, but because they announced a (modest) dividend, and then set a date you needed to own stock by in order to qualify for it. What do you know, the stock price spiked?

One cannot read too much into store closures either, unless they start to happen in significant quantities. Many businesses will routinely close a branch that isn't really performing when the lease expires, or simply move elsewhere to take advantage of better premises or lease terms, GW has not shown the sort of behaviour one would expect from a company in imminent danger with regard to it's store openings and closures, just a typical pattern for a chain retailer.

There are numerous indicators that GW is under increasing financial pressures, and is aware of that. There's also a reasonable case to be made that nobody in a position to affect change in senior management really knows what to do to solve the problem, but it's late, I'm tired, so rather than retread even more old ground, I suggest you have a search for one of the several, lengthy, threads that have occurred since the last interim report in January.

We find comfort among those who agree with us - growth among those who don't. - Frank Howard Clark

The wise man doubts often, and changes his mind; the fool is obstinate, and doubts not; he knows all things but his own ignorance.

The correct statement of individual rights is that everyone has the right to an opinion, but crucially, that opinion can be roundly ignored and even made fun of, particularly if it is demonstrably nonsense!” Professor Brian Cox

Ask me about
Barnstaple Slayers Club 
   
Made in au
[MOD]
Making Stuff






Under the couch

stopcallingmechief wrote:
Not trying to crap all over australia but when your minimum wage is $16 and its $10 in canada and what, $7 something in america things will and should cost more.

Minimum wages are irrelevant to whether or not people should be charged a fair price. But we don't need to derail another thread with the same old arguments about equal pricing in a global market.

 
   
Made in de
Repentia Mistress





Santuary 101

 azreal13 wrote:
 milkboy wrote:
A lot of things mentioned here are at best anecdotal and do not prove general trends. There could be places which are gaining players and there could be places which are losing players. There could also be shops which sell GW products/rule books like hotcakes and some which hardly move GW stock.

There are some which are closer to factual details which could answer the question. Such as stock price, and what was mentioned about store closures which may indicate the financial woes are building up. Those are probably a far more reliable metric than what you see selling around you.

Insaniak, you mentioned about borrowing money. This is one information I had not read about. Could you elaborate? This sounds interesting to know more about.


Well.. seeing as we're doing this.

Dismissing "anecdotal" evidence with the weight behind it that can be discovered by spending some time in the online community is folly. Especially when it is borne out by hard evidence (GW figures have been effectively flat for a number of years, until Jan this year, when they took a steep decline.)

Stock price is utterly irrelevant with regard to the financial health of a company, it is a reflection of what the market thinks the state of the company is, not how it really is.


I was referring to anecdotal evidence of posters reporting what they see around them. Their sampling is definitely inadequate to put a number as to whether the overall pool of GW players are increasing or decreasing. At least financial reports have figures to them that are more concrete. As to how much you can infer from them, it's up to the individual.

If stock prices are utterly irrelevant to a financial health of a company, I can't see many companies being concerned about their stock prices.

Insaniak, I went through the 2012-2013 financial report but I could not find the reference of borrowed money. Could you point out the section please? Or the appropriate report that you saw it in.

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2014/07/12 02:03:08


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Avatar scene by artist Nicholas Kay. Give credit where it's due! 
   
Made in gb
The Daemon Possessing Fulgrim's Body





Devon, UK

 milkboy wrote:
 azreal13 wrote:
 milkboy wrote:
A lot of things mentioned here are at best anecdotal and do not prove general trends. There could be places which are gaining players and there could be places which are losing players. There could also be shops which sell GW products/rule books like hotcakes and some which hardly move GW stock.

There are some which are closer to factual details which could answer the question. Such as stock price, and what was mentioned about store closures which may indicate the financial woes are building up. Those are probably a far more reliable metric than what you see selling around you.

Insaniak, you mentioned about borrowing money. This is one information I had not read about. Could you elaborate? This sounds interesting to know more about.


Well.. seeing as we're doing this.

Dismissing "anecdotal" evidence with the weight behind it that can be discovered by spending some time in the online community is folly. Especially when it is borne out by hard evidence (GW figures have been effectively flat for a number of years, until Jan this year, when they took a steep decline.)

Stock price is utterly irrelevant with regard to the financial health of a company, it is a reflection of what the market thinks the state of the company is, not how it really is.


I was referring to anecdotal evidence of posters reporting what they see around them. Their sampling is definitely inadequate to put a number as to whether the overall pool of GW players are increasing or decreasing. At least financial reports have figures to them that are more concrete. As to how much you can infer from them, it's up to the individual.

If stock prices are utterly irrelevant to a financial health of a company, I can't see many companies being concerned about their stock prices.

Insaniak, I went through the 2012-2013 financial report but I could not find the reference of borrowed money. Could you point out the section please? Or the appropriate report that you saw it in.


It's from longer ago than last year, not sure exactly, but circa 2008 sort of time frame.

Of course Companies worry about stock price, that isn't what I said was it? What I said was they are irrelevant with regard to financial health. If I were CEO of a struggling company, let alone one who owned a large piece of it like Tom Kirby, you can bet damn sure I would be worried about the stock price, but there is no necessary correlation between the two.

As for the anecdotal stuff, it isn't inadequate when you are on a large online community like Dakka, where people from all over the world are reporting similar trends, and that also jives with official reports and material, and feedback from people like Mikhalia who runs a large FLGS company and also corroborates the same. One person, one store = bad info. One person, one store x 100 different instances = much more plausible, although I agree I wouldn't bet the farm on just that info.

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2014/07/12 02:18:32


We find comfort among those who agree with us - growth among those who don't. - Frank Howard Clark

The wise man doubts often, and changes his mind; the fool is obstinate, and doubts not; he knows all things but his own ignorance.

The correct statement of individual rights is that everyone has the right to an opinion, but crucially, that opinion can be roundly ignored and even made fun of, particularly if it is demonstrably nonsense!” Professor Brian Cox

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Made in au
Oberstleutnant






Perth, West Australia

Whether it's a quick collapse or a drawn-out death spiral, unless something changes it seems as though yeah, GW is on the way out. They're rapidly losing market share in a booming industry, they've lost a lot of customer good will and what remains is only bleeding out quicker as GW continues the trend of milking the remaining customers to pay for those leaving (see the thread on ebook prices going up). The release of 7th 2 years early to blatantly try to redeem the years financial results has cannibalized a lot of future sales.
   
Made in de
Repentia Mistress





Santuary 101

Thanks for the reference, I'll look it up. And apologies if i have misunderstood your statement.

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Made in ca
Posts with Authority




I'm from the future. The future of space

I think that enough for their customers really will keep buying at pretty much any price that they'll keep revenues flat while the actual number of people buying, and the amount of miniatures they get for their money will continue to shrink.

I think they will continue to be able to cut costs fast enough to manage their decline and segmentation from the larger hobby gaming market.

In the next financial report, I think we'll see revenue continue to slide ever so slightly, but we'll see the greatest proportion of their cost cutting savings from closing down regional HQs and cutting administration staff in line with their production staff cuts of the past.

Their dividend payment might have been out of line with their profit and cash position, so it's entirely possible that they will both be profitable and be forced to borrow money to cover their dividend.

GW has pretty much been managing a decline since the LOTR bubble and will continue to do so.

The end result for their customers though, will be prices that continue to spiral up. You'll get less actual product for the same amount of money, but enough of you are true believers in 40k enough that you'll keep buying at full retail. And now with unbound, every new release can be sold to every customer rather than having them wait for armies they already play to get updates. Every codex released will be split into more supplements with day 1 DLC that enough of you will buy to keep GW nicely profitable. If where they would have previously sold everyone a $25 codex, they can now sell $100 worth of codexes, supplements and DLC, they actually only need a quarter of the customers buying to make the same amount of money. And at some cost savings as well.


This message was edited 2 times. Last update was at 2014/07/12 02:33:02


Balance in pick up games? Two people, each with their own goals for the game, design half a board game on their own without knowing the layout of the board and hope it all works out. Good luck with that. The faster you can find like minded individuals who want the same things from the game as you, the better. 
   
Made in ca
Bounding Assault Marine





Canada

Games workshop needs to put a serious focus into their marketing and advertising area I mean where else do you see gw products other than games workshop now a days for people who have never heard of the games. Even look at what they're doing to the FLGS's they aren't even Allowed to show their prices and have carts without going through a significant process of emailing the company to find it out. All in all they just need to get the word out that they exist build some awesome hobby centers with fancy new terrain and tables and put the word out anywhere they can and have anybody that wants to come in come in to try it out
   
Made in us
Douglas Bader






 frozenwastes wrote:
If where they would have previously sold everyone a $25 codex, they can now sell $100 worth of codexes, supplements and DLC, they actually only need a quarter of the customers buying to make the same amount of money.


And in the long run that strategy is just slightly less suicidal than shooting yourself in the head. 40k, like other games, is a social activity where "what are my friends playing" is a dominant factor in a potential customer's choice of products to buy. If GW decide to throw away 75% of their market share many of those customers are going to start playing other games and recruiting their friends to join them. The result is a death spiral where GW goes from being the default game that everyone plays because it's what everyone is playing to struggling to get a handful of new customers as stores don't even bother hosting 40k night anymore because nobody shows up. GW would have one good financial report to brag about their "success", and be bankrupt and sold to WOTC before the next one.

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2014/07/12 04:52:18


There is no such thing as a hobby without politics. "Leave politics at the door" is itself a political statement, an endorsement of the status quo and an attempt to silence dissenting voices. 
   
Made in au
Grizzled Space Wolves Great Wolf





Unless GW start owing more money than they have, I doubt they'll go under.

If they start making less than they are paying for all their stores, they can always just close their stores.

I could definitely see 40k becoming a small specialist game, and GW reverting to a smaller operation, but not GW going under completely.

Of course, if the higher ups decide they want to cash out and sell to a bigger company who will close them down if they can't turn enough of a product, sure, then I could see them closing down. Or if they owe people tons of money and can't shrink their operation without dooming themselves, then they might go under.

Even when you look at the big fall in stock price they had earlier this year, they have recovered somewhat and in the context of their history, it's really not that significant.

This message was edited 2 times. Last update was at 2014/07/12 05:16:22


 
   
Made in de
Cardolanian Thrall



Germany

IMHO GW shot themselves in the foot a few years ago. They tried to trim costs by closing most of their stores because they were returning low profit, or even deficit. I have some experience with specialty stores, i used to be a manager at a lego store. The specialty stores arent there to return huge amounts of profits, neither are events like gameday. The only two months out of the year we made money was november and december, amd january we went in red until march or april. The stores are there for exposure, to strike interest, amd to create a community. Now that a lot of their locations are closed and they rely on third party retailers to move stock, this element is missing. Now i am forced to go to the local hobby shop and suddenly i am exposed to new wargaming systems. Most of them a lot cheaper than gw. And this is where the problem comes full circle.

I am not a market analyst, nor a gw expert, therefore i will not venture to guess at whether it faulter or save itself
   
Made in us
Fireknife Shas'el




All over the U.S.

IMO, maybe.

It is the question that is the problem here. There are to many variables.


Now, if you ask, "Do you think GW's current / old business model will fail?". then my answer would be,"If they are not taking steps to move to a more modern strategy, then most assuredly, Yes"..

I have felt and openly stated for about 5 years now that GW is aware that upcoming technologies are making their current business model obsolete. The advent of 3d printing/ rapid prototyping machines at affordable costs guarantees that GW's current out-dated business model will fail in the near future.. This is why GW has been price gouging/ soaking their customers for every penny possible. GW is soaking their customers for cash before they either sell out or switch to a modern business model that is proving to be working.

Let me explain my position,

There are several miniature / games companies that are currently thriving. Why?

Is it because their models are cheaper?.....No, though PP sells some pewter kits at the same price GW sells their plastic kits.

Is it because these companies have massive ad campaigns?.........No. Some are currently providing much better prize support for indy tournies, though.

Is it because these companies are more successfully leveraging their IP into video games?....No. Which begs the question as to why GW is not growing.

Is it a customer service issue? Partially yes. GW could and should be doing a much better job of both relating to their customers and improving their corporate image.(suing individuals over the use of a generic term makes them look like bullies. As a modern multi-national corp, they should:
a) know better
b) have expected to loose the case
and
c) Known their actions would be viewed negatively.

Is all of the above enough to explain why GW is diminishing so rapidly? No. While such would explain a certain margin of under-performance in their market, the above issues (imo) are not what is really causing the current landslide.


I know. I am saying things that is probably p-ing off some of you, but please bear with me.

What do "I" consider the problem with their current business model?

Easy, it is unsustainable....... Now, I am not just talking about unsustainable from a corporate pov. I am also, talking about the unsustainable expectations that GW is placing upon their customer base.


Now let us ask, "Why, is GW's business model unsustainable?

GW is still using a mass production "sell as many of the same model as possible" plan. Sounds like common sense,"Doesn't it?". Well yeah, for the 1990's, but we are now in 2014.
The problem with this "old think" business model is that it drives the game design department,.... which ends up forcing more models into a game system and market not designed for such.
To compound this problem, the business model also ends up pushing for a faster and faster release schedule.

These actions lead to an expectation that their customers buy many copies of the same expensive models. This in turn encourages cloners/ recasters to use the new technologies in a way that provides "affordability" to the customer base that would not other-wise be there.
These actions, also force the customers to try and not only keep up with a higher rate of purchases but also a faster rate of purchases.

Why does the rate matter so much?
Well, aside from many customers dropping out of the GW family because they can no longer afford it.......
This creates a big issue in that the customers no longer have the "time" to properly paint their models. Think about this. Think about the increased number of unpainted armies and unfinished collections that are given up on because the customers just don't have the time to get the army they want to build ready before it becomes obsolete. I am not talking about whether an army is competitive but that the equipment glued on the models are no longer a valid option for that unit.

When customers look around at several unfinished theme armies that they never go to play, more than a few will bow out.


Well, then what business model would work?

I think that we will see a move towards PP's business model but with a few key differences.

That when the 3-d printing / rapid prototyping machinery becomes so affordable that almost anyone can afford one, GW will / should create a version of 40K or change 40K to a much lower model count system that expects to sell only one of each type model and embraces that idea.
That GW will instead sell 3-d model templates and will use the rapid proto-typing tech to keep adding new models and factions.

By writing rules that keep model redundancy to a minimum GW will reduce both loss to re-casters cloning their products and legal costs of defending their IP.


Now, if GW does none of this and expects their current business methods to weather the storm of upheaval that this early "replicator" technology will create. Then I think that such inflexibility will lead to them breaking and falling like a tall old tree in a wind storm.

Later,
ff

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2014/07/12 07:23:19


Officially elevated by St. God of Yams to the rank of Scholar of the Church of the Children of the Eternal Turtle Pie at 11:42:36 PM 05/01/09

If they are too stupid to live, why make them?

In the immortal words of Socrates, I drank what??!

Tau-*****points(You really don't want to know)  
   
 
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