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Orock's thread has a lot going on, and I thought a focus on Destroyer versus Distort might help iluminate some folks on the Destroyer Weapon's actual impact on the game, so now some MathHammer:

Previous codex’s Distort (per successful hit):
Destroyer (per successful hit)

Distort Versus: 1 wound Infantry - 84% chance of dead. Invlun/Cover Saves allowed.
Destroyer Versus: 1 wound infantry - 66%% chance of dead. Invlun/Cover Saves allowed, except onna
Almost same, but 1/6 deadlier. <------ edit

Distort Versus: Multi-wound models, MCs, & ICs (T5 or less) on the ‘to wound’ roll of 2-5 (this includes a ’6’) 84% chance of dead from high STR doubling out/Instant Death. Invlun/Cover Saves allowed.
Destroyer Versus: Multi-wound models, MCs, & ICs (T5 or less) on the ‘to wound’ roll of 2-5 (this includes a ’6’) 84% chance of dead from high STR doubling out/Instant Death.
Almost the same, except there are no saves. <-- editted.

Distort Versus: T6+ multi-wounder models have a 64% of receiving 1 wound and 16% of ID.
Destroyer Versus : T6+ multi-wounder models have a 64% of receiving d3 wounds and 16% of ID.
No longer the same. Destroyers are more powerful, by dealing up to 3 wounds, instead of 1.

Distort Versus: Eternal Warriors 84% chance of receiving 1 wound. No ID possible.
Destroyer Versus: Eternal Warriors 64% chance of receiving d3 wounds. ID is not possible, but the outcome, 16% is going to be enough wounds, with no saves to kill the model outright.
Much worse for Marney, big bugs, etc. Up to 75% of an ET model's wounds (like Marneus) on the roll of 2-5 ... or onna wiping out most things on the table, including gargantuan creatures.

That’s just from the Destroyer table in the RB. It is important to look at the platform (models) delivering the Destroyer weapons:
- - - - - - - - - - -
Distort (and now Destroyer) weapons are on Wraithguard, Hemlock Wraithfighters (flier) and the WraithKnight. Range is meh for WG, 12”, 18” for the flier’s 2 blasts, and a good 36” for the WK. All those ranges remain the same.
- - - - - - - - - - -

The Math Hammer for vehicles
Gotta format it differently given how the mechanic is … different.

Distort Versus Vehicles
AV10 Auto pen. With AP2 on the Vehicle Damage Table which means another factor of 16% to get an Explodes! you-killed-it-in-one-shot.
AV11 84% of pen, 16% glance
AV12 64% of pen, 16% of glance
AV13 50% of Pen, etc
AV14 36% of Pen, etc.
Multiply those percentages times 16%, and you get, in order per shot at vehicle:
AV10 16% dead
AV11 ~12-13% dead
AV12 ~10-11% dead
AV13 8% dead
AV14 ~5% dead


Destroyer Versus Vehicles (Amour Value is irrelevant)
16% nothing happens
64% d3 Hull Points are dealt, plus whatever effect an AP2 roll does on the VehDamTable Saves can be taken.
16% onna pretty much whatever it is dealt 6+d6 HPs.

Okay, each little chart on its own makes sense, but they are harder to compare when the Armor Value is not relevant for Destroyers. It’s the Hull points that make the difference.

Destroyer Versus
2 Hull Point vehicles (most/all of which are AV10)
a. (rolls of 2-5 ‘to pen’) 64% times d3 HPs (another 66%) that you do enough to kill. Saves Allowed. It might survive on the d3 roll of 1. Throw back in the VehDamTable and AP2. Another mitigating 16%
Kill - 64% x 66% (rolling a ‘2’ or ‘3’ on the d3) = ~ 41% x VehDamTable 16%, around 35% of Wrecking it before you factor in Saves Allowed.
… plus…

3 Hull Point vehicles (multiple AVs)
a. 64% (roll 2-5 ‘to pen’) times d3 HPs (multiply in 33%) that you do enough to kill.
Kill 64% x 33% (rolling a ‘3’ on the d3) = ~ 21%. Throw in AP2 on the VehDamTable
Another mitigating 16% which yields a ~ 24% of vehicle toast

4 Hull point vehicles (usually AV14 only)
a. Only a 16% chance to Wreck/Explode! it, with the AP2 on the VehDamTable, otherwise just d3 HPs.

For all:
b. an additional (not multiplied, but added onto) 16% on the roll of a Anything that isn’t an Imperial Knight+ is toast, and even ImpKs are about killed 50% of the time (6+d6 = ~9.5 HPs, on saves). And this works for all vehicles.

Keep in mind that, for the 6 on destroyer, you get no saves, so it does modify things for the t5 multiwound and single wound model categories. It's the difference between a fateweaver with a 2++ rerollable and a fateweaver getting turned inside out...so pretty big difference!

 thanatos67 wrote:
Keep in mind that, for the 6 on destroyer, you get no saves, so it does modify things for the t5 multiwound and single wound model categories. It's the difference between a fateweaver with a 2++ rerollable and a fateweaver getting turned inside out...so pretty big difference!

Crap. Missed that. Will fix! Thanks

 thanatos67 wrote:
Keep in mind that, for the 6 on destroyer, you get no saves, so it does modify things for the t5 multiwound and single wound model categories. It's the difference between a fateweaver with a 2++ rerollable and a fateweaver getting turned inside out...so pretty big difference!

A change in the meta allowing for the 2++ rerollable to have an actual hard counter isn't a bad thing IMO.

 OverwatchCNC wrote:

 thanatos67 wrote:
Keep in mind that, for the 6 on destroyer, you get no saves, so it does modify things for the t5 multiwound and single wound model categories. It's the difference between a fateweaver with a 2++ rerollable and a fateweaver getting turned inside out...so pretty big difference!

A change in the meta allowing for the 2++ rerollable to have an actual hard counter isn't a bad thing IMO.

Even better is if something like that didn't exist to require a hardcounter, particularly one that acts as a hardcounter to *everything*

 Vaktathi wrote:

 OverwatchCNC wrote:

 thanatos67 wrote:
Keep in mind that, for the 6 on destroyer, you get no saves, so it does modify things for the t5 multiwound and single wound model categories. It's the difference between a fateweaver with a 2++ rerollable and a fateweaver getting turned inside out...so pretty big difference!

A change in the meta allowing for the 2++ rerollable to have an actual hard counter isn't a bad thing IMO.

Even better is if something like that didn't exist to require a hardcounter, particularly one that acts as a hardcounter to *everything*

Wish all you want but I'd rather deal with reality. Sitting around whining, complaining, and wishing things were different won't change anything. Looking at the facts and numbers, playing the game, and seeing the real impact of things is the best way to go. It always amazes me at how the same people come out of the woodwork time after time to complain about how broken everything is and how much the sky is falling and then fade away when things turn out fine.

The reality is power builds have always existed in 40k. The current iterations are just different versions of the same concept that's been around since time immemorial.

Without wanting to get too far off topic, the fact that GW's games are far less dominant than they were, with Fantasy almost totally dead and 40k having far more competition (and a decade long decline in inflation-adjusted revenue on GW's part coupled with massively increased prices indicating they're moving far less product in general),and that the power level of the "power builds" being far higher than in previous editions relative to most "pickup" type lists (the very idea of a 2++ rerollable save being restricted to late night 4chan comedic hyperbole not too long ago), there's some merit in pointing out the sky may not be crashing this instant, but it's certainly cracked and a whole lot lower than it once was. This is of course to say nothing of the fact that GW has gone out of their way to make it clear that this game is no longer intended to even vaguely resemble a balanced tournament game, even to the point of often simply telling people to make/change rules as they see fit

I guess if being a regular poster means I'm "the same people coming out of the woodwork", I guess I'll accept that label.


Anyway, here's some of my collected posts on D weapons vs old Distort

 Vaktathi wrote:
I worked it out in several of the "General Discussion" threads.

Against AV14 you're increasing average HP inflicting nearly 6 fold, from 0.33 per single BS4 shot to 1.94 per BS4 shot. Scythes, not benefitting from 6's and having an extra "failure" result increase 4 fold from 0.166 Pens per shot to 1.33 pens per shot.

Against a T6 W4 MC, you go from 0.11 ID results per Wraithcannon and 0.55 wounds per shot (including the ID inflicting 6) to inflicting ~3.5x as many wounds with D weapons, an average of 1.944 wounds (and auto-killing regardless of EW on a 6).

The Scythe is a little less clear-cut. The old Scythes inflicted an average of 0.166 wounds (resulting in ID and didn't hurt the MC otherwise) and if that's inflicting ID on a 4 wound MC then we can just increase that number by 4 to 0.66.

The new Scythe is inflicting an average of 1.33 wounds per shot (not inflicting ID).

Basically the older Scythe would outright kill any MC without EW on a 6, but otherwise did nothing, while the new "D-1" Scythes, are inflicting D3 wounds 4x as often but aren't outright inflicting ID. Ultimately, in this case the gap isn't quite as huge as in other instances, on average they'll kill an MC *only* twice as fast as their older counterparts, but still substantial and far less "luck" reliant.

*note* looks different from above because to-hit chance not factored in, so misses aren't there to drive down the numbers.

Again, lets look at S10 AP2 and S8 AP1 Melta vs AV14 along with a Destroyer weapon.

S10 - Each hit on average causes 0.5 HP's lost, and 0.0555 Explodes Results
S 8 Melta: Each hit on average causes 0.722 HP's lost and 0.1944 Explodes Results
S D - Each hit on average inflicts 2.92 HP's, and 0.055 Explodes Results (assuming AP2).

Now, the Explodes result are a bit interesting, but the average HP stripping ability is astounding. Even if you want to artificially remove the 6's from the equation, you're almost doubling the HP stripping ability of a Meltagun and nearly tripling the HP stripping ability you had with Strength 10.

Looking at explodes results vs HP with and difference between S10 AP1 and D

With S10 AP1 versus say, AV14, you need an average of 13.5 BS4 shots to inflict a single Explodes result, or 9 to kill a 3 HP vehicle through HP's alone.
With a D weapon, sure you need a whole lot more to inflict a single Explodes result, 27 shots, but only ~3.5 to average enough to kill that AV14 vehicle through HP's, or only an average of 3 with a D-scythe (since it can't fail to hit even though it gets a -1 on the D chart).

 Vaktathi wrote:
Against AV14 you're increasing average HP inflicting nearly 6 fold, from 0.33 per single BS4 shot to 1.94 per BS4 shot. Scythes, not benefitting from 6's and having an extra "failure" result increase 4 fold from 0.166 Pens per shot to 1.33 pens per shot.

Vaktathi,

I'm having trouble wrapping my head around 1.33 pens per shot. How can one die produce more than one penetrating hit?

 Brothererekose wrote:

 Vaktathi wrote:
Against AV14 you're increasing average HP inflicting nearly 6 fold, from 0.33 per single BS4 shot to 1.94 per BS4 shot. Scythes, not benefitting from 6's and having an extra "failure" result increase 4 fold from 0.166 Pens per shot to 1.33 pens per shot.

Vaktathi,

I'm having trouble wrapping my head around 1.33 pens per shot. How can one die produce more than one penetrating hit?

Sorry, that should be HP's not Pen's. Incorrect term on my part.

Overall, it seems like the Wraith Knight's Heavy Wraith Cannon and D-Scythes are drawing the most flak. Chances are, if you are going to be making an Eldar army, your only source of Destroyer is very likely to be a single Wraith Knight and perhaps one unit of D-Scythes. I would be interested in seeing how many average hits you can expect to see from a Wraith Knight over an average game and how much damage those total hits are likely to do over like 5-6 turns.

I would also be interested in seeing some math on how various invulnerable saves help mitigate the effectiveness of D-Scythes since you will always be able to get an invul save against D-Scythes. Several armies have ways of getting units with good invul saves or by getting invul saves through Divination.


On a humorous side-note, it is my personal experience that my Wraith Knight shoots worse than an Ork, and this appears to be Brothererikose's experience as well? And yet the Wraith Knight is going to break the game!

 mortetvie wrote:
On a humorous side-note, it is my personal experience that my Wraith Knight shoots worse than an Ork, and this appears to be Brothererikose's experience as well? And yet the Wraith Knight is going to break the game!

Assuming no re-rolls from psychic powers (wraithknight with dual heavy wraithcannons)
5 turns: 6.67 hits
6 turns: 8 hits
7 turns: 9.33 hits

Multiplied by the OP's destroyer results you get:
5 turns: 4.27xD3, 1.07x(6+D6) wounds/hullpoints ignoring ID/explodes
6 turns: 5.12xD3, 1.28x(6+D6) wounds/hullpoints ignoring ID/explodes
7 turns: 6xD3, 1.5x(6+D6) wounds/hullpoints ignoring ID/explodes

Basically, once per game you are removing anything short of a massive superheavy with no saves allowed, and if the average of a D3 is 2 dealing 8+ hullpoints/wounds of damage.

Invul saves do help against d-scythes and rolls other than a "6" with the wraithcannons, just like they always did; however now when those saves are failed the new weapons are 1-3 times more effective while ignoring toughness and AV.

There is no average roll for a single die roll unless you have a weighted die.

This discussion seems more like a general discussion about the new eldar codex and less like something specific to tournaments, maybe a mod could move it.

 RobPro wrote:
There is no average roll for a single die roll unless you have a weighted die.

This is not correct. A single die roll has an expected value, which most people label the average. On a D6 it's 3.5, on a D3 it's 2, etc..

How do you have an average on a single die roll of a single D6 if you are equally likely to roll any number?

The expected value is sum of the probability of each outcome times its value, a fundamental concept of statistics. You can't say which outcome any particular roll is likely to have, because they're all equally likely, but if you're calculating wounds, penetrations, etc., like the above calculation, rolls over time will average to the expected value.

 RobPro wrote:
There is no average roll for a single die roll unless you have a weighted die.

This discussion seems more like a general discussion about the new eldar codex and less like something specific to tournaments, maybe a mod could move it.

Naw, this belongs here. Tourneys are going to limit Lords of War to one, where as pick up games and garage/beer hammer has whatever you want

So it is reasonable to work with these numbers. I am pretty much a tourney player exclusively, so, I am most interested in what other tourney players have to say on the matter.

BTW; I did play two garage games Saturday, but those are rare for me.
Automatically Appended Next Post:

 tjkopena wrote:
The expected value is sum of the probability of each outcome times its value, a fundamental concept of statistics. You can't say which outcome any particular roll is likely to have, because they're all equally likely, but if you're calculating wounds, penetrations, etc., like the above calculation, rolls over time will average to the expected value.

Yeah, RobPro, this.

You need to go through and make sure you've factored in that on a roll of a 6 there are no saves. Roll a 6, kill an Imperial Knight. Your analysis seems to discount that 6s ignore all saves, do not pass go, just pick up your Imperial Knight. That's slightly better than a 1/5 chance for a Wraithknight to one shot an Imperial Knight, or effectively any single model in the game in a single turn.

Once no saves on 6s is factored in it becomes evident how superior D is to Distort, even against single wound models when cover and invulnerable saves come into play. Also, D invalidates FNP on any model that has it as well.

 Zagman wrote:
You need to go through and make sure you've factored in that on a roll of a 6 there are no saves. Roll a 6, kill an Imperial Knight. Your analysis seems to discount that 6s ignore all saves, do not pass go, just pick up your Imperial Knight. That's slightly better than a 1/5 chance for a Wraithknight to one shot an Imperial Knight, or effectively any single model in the game in a single turn.

They are there, usually expressed as the last 16%, but I will take your input to clarify the data.

The ImpKinght's chances are actually, once hit:
roll of = nothing happens, 16% of the time
roll of 2-5 = d3 HPs dealt. So, 66% of the time, chopped in half, to 33% if the 4++ Invuln works that the ImpK suffers d3 HPs. Throw in AP2 for 16%xhalf (Invulnv Save). 41% of hits will do a d3 HPs.
roll o f = an average of 9.5 HPs. 16%. 1 in 6.

Add on the x16% in points, for the AP2 to add Explodes! ... which adds another d3 HPs (SuperHeavyWalker rules). So, 16%, add onto by x16%, is like 17 or 18% total chance of 6 +d6 + 3 HPs. Once hit.

Chop that puppy by 66% for Shooting at BS4.

Now you're down to ~6% (18 percent chance times two-thirds) or one in twenty of offing an Imperial Knight with a WraithKnight's single shot. Double that if the WK points both cannons.
TLR = a 12% chance of a WK shooting a ImpK off the table with its two guns. On average.

Better?

 Zagman wrote:
Once no saves on 6s is factored in it becomes evident how superior D is to Distort, even against single wound models when cover and invulnerable saves come into play. Also, D invalidates FNP on any model that has it as well.

Yes, but these are only additions of 16%, or 1 in 6 on the die. So, 66% of the time, D-weps roll a 2-5, Saves allowed. That last 16% means certain death for pretty much everything in 40k ... not a drastic increase IMHO.


**
Anybody is welcome to recrunch my numbers. Just quote it first, and put yours underneath for a direct comparison.

 Brothererekose wrote:

 Zagman wrote:
You need to go through and make sure you've factored in that on a roll of a 6 there are no saves. Roll a 6, kill an Imperial Knight. Your analysis seems to discount that 6s ignore all saves, do not pass go, just pick up your Imperial Knight. That's slightly better than a 1/5 chance for a Wraithknight to one shot an Imperial Knight, or effectively any single model in the game in a single turn.

They are there, usually expressed as the last 16%, but I will take your input to clarify the data. **

 Zagman wrote:
Once no saves on 6s is factored in it becomes evident how superior D is to Distort, even against single wound models when cover and invulnerable saves come into play. Also, D invalidates FNP on any model that has it as well.

Yes, but these are only additions of 16%, or 1 in 6 on the die. So, 66% of the time, D-weps roll a 2-5, Saves allowed. That last 16% means certain death for pretty much everything in 40k ... not a drastic increase IMHO.

Actually, the FNP thing is on every Destroyer hit regardless of whether it rolls a 6 or not.

Also, until there is something in this game that comes within the 300-400 point bracket that has at least 8 wounds D6+6 wounds on the 6 will trump Instant Death any time. Combined with ignoring any and all saves. Even if Distort ignored any and all saves there were characters that could survive that due to Eternal Warrior.

And I think that's the problem of Eldar getting mass Destroyer. It all comes on platforms ranging from 50 to 300ish points whereas the only things that can realistically survive that sort of thing cost at least 100 points more. And the fact they made it available in Template form...I think that's the bit where a lot of people facepalmed. Sure, D-scythes will never get the D6+6 result but D3 wounds/hull points on a template weapon is pretty much good enough.

 DarkStarSabre wrote:
Actually, the FNP thing is on every Destroyer hit regardless of whether it rolls a 6 or not.

Do you mean "FNP thing" is :
a. "gets to use FNP"
or
b. "Ignores FNP"
?
I did write in the T5 category, and factored in the STR 10 by-passing FNP. Unless something I missed?

 DarkStarSabre wrote:
And I think that's the problem of Eldar getting mass Destroyer. It all comes on platforms ranging from 50 to 300ish points whereas the only things that can realistically survive that sort of thing cost at least 100 points more. And the fact they made it available in Template form...I think that's the bit where a lot of people facepalmed. Sure, D-scythes will never get the D6+6 result but D3 wounds/hull points on a template weapon is pretty much good enough.

What 50 pointer?

Do you mean WraithGuard? In context, that's actually 5 D-weps in a 160 point unit, so a wee bit more spent. And remember, 12" range.

 Brothererekose wrote:

 Zagman wrote:
You need to go through and make sure you've factored in that on a roll of a 6 there are no saves. Roll a 6, kill an Imperial Knight. Your analysis seems to discount that 6s ignore all saves, do not pass go, just pick up your Imperial Knight. That's slightly better than a 1/5 chance for a Wraithknight to one shot an Imperial Knight, or effectively any single model in the game in a single turn.

They are there, usually expressed as the last 16%, but I will take your input to clarify the data. **

 Zagman wrote:
Once no saves on 6s is factored in it becomes evident how superior D is to Distort, even against single wound models when cover and invulnerable saves come into play. Also, D invalidates FNP on any model that has it as well.

Yes, but these are only additions of 16%, or 1 in 6 on the die. So, 66% of the time, D-weps roll a 2-5, Saves allowed. That last 16% means certain death for pretty much everything in 40k ... not a drastic increase IMHO.

Actually, you didn't. You don't mention 6s ignoring saves for single wound models.

You also said an IK could survive a 6, it cannot. It has no saves.

D always invalidates FNP as well and is worth mentioning. Distorypt only ignores it on a 6. MCs and GMCs are the main categories here.

Your Honest Opinion doesn't matter, it is statistically significant.

Single Wound Model with 4+ Cover
Distort: 1/6 No Damage
Distort: 5/6 Wound. 5/12 after saves.
42% wound

D: 1/6 No a Damage
D: 2/3 Wound. 1/3 after Saves
D: 1:6 Dead
50% Wound after Saves

D deals 19% more damage than Distort.

Vs Imperial Knight with 4++(Ignoring Pen roll as both get it and D gains additional advantage)
Distort: 1/2 chance of HP, 1/4 after 4++
25% Chance of 1HP
.25HP/Turn Average

D: 2/3 Chance of D3 HP, 1/3 after 4++
D: 1/6 Chance of 6HP
33.4% Chance of 2HP, 16.7% Chance of 6HP
1.67HP/Turn Average

D is 668% as effective as Distort vs an Imperial Knight. That is even higher if its part of an Adamantine Lance.

I value what you are trying to accomplish with your post, but there is much more to the story. The difference between Distort and D is very large when saves are involved and against targets with multiple wounds.

Oooof. So much to digest. I'm gonna hafta look this over. Think. Think some more. Post tomorrow maybe.

Would you mind another hit at it? Work in (edit) some calculations with colored text (great stuff, huh?).

And, yeah, somehow I did leave out Saves for 1 wounders ... painting a worse/more powerful picture for D-weps. I'll edit that.

Mostly, like you showed, Saves of 5+ or 4+ Cover/Invuln will mitigate the 2-5 D rolls one-third to half the time, jutting effectiveness by 1/3 or 1/2.

Then the mighty

 Brothererekose wrote:
Do you mean "FNP thing" is :
a. "gets to use FNP"
or
b. "Ignores FNP"
?
I did write in the T5 category, and factored in the STR 10 by-passing FNP. Unless something I missed?

Distort did not ignore FNP unless the 6 was rolled. Remember, Dark Eldar and Tyranids often utilise FNP Monstrous Creatures (which are T6+), as do Nurgle Daemons so these would have been units with a chance to soak Distort shots. Furthermore, D-scythes were not Strength 10 so Plague Marines and Plague Bearers could soak that as well.

Destroyer ignores FNP altogether, even with D-scythes. That's a huge chomp in survivability.

What 50 pointer?

Do you mean WraithGuard? In context, that's actually 5 D-weps in a 160 point unit, so a wee bit more spent. And remember, 12" range.

Everyone forgets about the Vaul's Wrath weapon batteries. Admittedly, that's because the Eldar Heavy Support section is as crowded as the Tyranid Elite section, so it's easy to overlook. Plus I was off by about a melta-bomb in points. That's still a disgustingly cheap unit with a long range Destroyer shot with Barrage on top.

 Brothererekose wrote:
What 50 pointer?

Do you mean WraithGuard? In context, that's actually 5 D-weps in a 160 point unit, so a wee bit more spent. And remember, 12" range.

Exactly. You get FIVE D-weapon shots for 160 points. So, actually less than 50 pts per D-weapon.

 Brothererekose wrote:
Oooof. So much to digest. I'm gonna hafta look this over. Think. Think some more. Post tomorrow maybe.

Would you mind another hit at it? Work in (edit) some calculations with colored text (great stuff, huh?).

And, yeah, somehow I did leave out Saves for 1 wounders ... painting a worse/more powerful picture for D-weps. I'll edit that.

Mostly, like you showed, Saves of 5+ or 4+ Cover/Invuln will mitigate the 2-5 D rolls one-third to half the time, jutting effectiveness by 1/3 or 1/2.

Then the mighty

No, I won't edit in colored txt, your OP is an assault on my eyes. The structure of my post is quite simple.


Also, I would request that you stop claiming that D is not much better than Distort like you have been all over the forum. It is significantly better depending on the unit you are looking at and always better when cover or invulnerable saves are a concern. And against many different targets the difference climbs to hundreds of percent that of Distort.

Yes is only a 1/6 chance of rolling a 6, but when 6s are rolled they often increase the damage dealt by orders of magnitude compared to Distort when Cover or Invulnerable saves are available.

For instance a D(6) vs a Distort(6) varies by target save.

5+/++ ie 5+ cover or 5++ Invuln
D deals 150% the damage of Distort.

4+/++ ie 4+ Cover or 4++ Invuln
D Deals 200% the damage of Distort.

3+/++ ie 3+ Cover or 3++ Invuln
D Deals 300% the damage of Distort.

2+/++ ie 2+ Cover or 2++ Invuln
D Deals 600% the Damage of Distort

3+/++ Rerollable
D Deals 900% the Damage of Distort

2+/++ Rerollable
D Deals 3600% the Damage of Distort

**At no point is any of my post intended to be snarky or condescending.**

 Zagman wrote:

 Brothererekose wrote:
Oooof. So much to digest. I'm gonna hafta look this over. Think. Think some more. Post tomorrow maybe.

Would you mind another hit at it? Work in (edit) some calculations with colored text (great stuff, huh?).

And, yeah, somehow I did leave out Saves for 1 wounders ... painting a worse/more powerful picture for D-weps. I'll edit that.

Mostly, like you showed, Saves of 5+ or 4+ Cover/Invuln will mitigate the 2-5 D rolls one-third to half the time, jutting effectiveness by 1/3 or 1/2.

Then the mighty

No, I won't edit in colored txt, your OP is an assault on my eyes. The structure of my post is quite simple.

And here I thought I was being helpful with separating by color. They are bright, huh?

 Zagman wrote:
Also, I would request that you stop claiming that D is not much better than Distort like you have been all over the forum. It is significantly better depending on the unit you are looking at and always better when cover or invulnerable saves are a concern.

Um. No. I will continue to claim it is better, but not the in ragequitrabblerabble vehemence that is currently popular all over dakka.

Let's not quibble over adjectives and phrasing that are subjective. 'Significantly better', 'not much better', 'way better' etc.

I'm *showing* how much better Destroyers are, by percentages, better at killing X, Y & Z models, specifically, T5, T6, and Eternal Warriors. Not opinions, but numbers.

My opinion:
Oh, yes, Destroyer is better at killing everything. How much though?

Bookies won't give a poop about how a thesaurus can help you express how much better Mayweather was over Pacquiao. They'll just want numbers, punches thrown, landed and rounds won.

And, sincerely, nicely, that is what I'm tryng to do.

My opinion:
Again, oh, heck, yeah, Destroyers are better. But as I look at the numbers ... I'm not quite so sure players should be having the ragequitrabblerabble reactions.

And, as better stated in OverwatchCNC's blog, it is a great hobby and game, and this sort of ... reaction isn't good for it. And I am hoping to keep the reaction from having a negative effect on the game, particularly the tourney scene. I'd like to see lotsa guys at the FLGS, none driven away because of opinions based on reactions and rumor, instead of solid odds.

 Zagman wrote:
And against many different targets the difference climbs to hundreds of percent that of Distort.

Yes is only a 1/6 chance of rolling a 6, but when 6s are rolled they often increase the damage dealt by orders of magnitude compared to Distort when Cover or Invulnerable saves are available.

For instance a D(6) vs a Distort(6) varies by target save.

5+/++ ie 5+ cover or 5++ Invuln
D deals 150% the damage of Distort.

4+/++ ie 4+ Cover or 4++ Invuln
D Deals 200% the damage of Distort.

3+/++ ie 3+ Cover or 3++ Invuln
D Deals 300% the damage of Distort.

2+/++ ie 2+ Cover or 2++ Invuln
D Deals 600% the Damage of Distort

3+/++ Rerollable
D Deals 900% the Damage of Distort

2+/++ Rerollable
D Deals 3600% the Damage of Distort

Not these kind of numbers though. Those kind of stats look impressive, but 3600% of a small fraction, like the 1/36 chance of wounding a 2++ re-rollable model is now only ... 1. Meaning, the Protected, Fortuned eldar or Fatey'd daemon now dies fer sure. What Tourneys still have that, by the way? I'm in the ITC sphere of influence so it's been 2++/4++ for a long time. Meaning Destroyer is even more powerful (pardon the adjective).

Well not quite, there's still a 16% of rolling a , so no damage. A 66% of causing a wound, that if Cover/Invuln fails, does d3 wounds. And your 3600% of Destroyer's factor over Distortion, still only occurs 16% of the time, on a

I think the problem with quantifying how much better Destroyer is than Distort or S10 is that it is better at everything.

But against targets that you want it to be good against, it is a LOT better.
Its like comparing a Krak missile with a S10 AP1 Tankhunter Ordnance Melta Lance weapon. The second is better at everything... but the magnitude of the difference when it matters is beyond just 'better'.

Plus it is hard to quantify the difference between 'does 2 wounds to a target' and 'does 3 wounds and kills the target'. The latter means you've eliminated a threat - I don't think you can quite quantify with mathhammer how much 'better' that is, but '50%' doesn't really cut it IMO.

Against single wound models: D is better, because on a 6 it ignores FNP and saves.
Against 2+ wound models: D is better, because on a 6 it ignores FNP and saves, and against T6+ it still has the chance to cause 2-3 wounds on a 'normal' hit.
Against eternal warriors it is better: it can ID T<=5 models all the time; it does D3 wounds no matter what, possibly killing some other models regardless; it does 6+D6 wounds on a 6 with no saves.
Against other gargantuan creatures it is better: wounding on 2+ no matter what, and (essentially) killing on a 6 rather than just doing 2 extra wounds.
Against vehicles it is strictly better against AV12+.
Against anything with FNP it is better, as it ignores FNP all the time, meaning (coupled with D3 wounds) it does 2.66 times as many wounds.


Then you think - what am I actually targetting with these destroyer weapons?
Targets like Riptides, Imperial Knights, MC's of any variety, AV13/14 vehicles of any variety, Deathstars with FNP/T5/2+W/Invulnerables. And you realize that with a D weapon you're far more likely to ELIMINATE the target with your shooting than with Distort - and that is what really matters.




I think that this is a time when the standard 'average result' mathhammer doesn't really apply, and you need to look at some more complicated analysis to determine the actual spread of results.
ie: the chance of doing 0 wounds, 1 wound, 2 wounds, killing the target

For ninja fast posters, I did some editing of numbers, in case you posted before I could redo some calculations. 'Appy-polly-logies.

Trasvi wrote:
I think the problem with quantifying how much better Destroyer is than Distort or S10 is that it is better at everything.

Yes. Exactly what I've been trying to do, and I think you put things very well:

Trasvi wrote:
But against targets that you want it to be good against, it is a LOT better.
Its like comparing a Krak missile with a S10 AP1 Tankhunter Ordnance Melta Lance weapon. The second is better at everything... but the magnitude of the difference when it matters is beyond just 'better'.

Plus it is hard to quantify the difference between 'does 2 wounds to a target' and 'does 3 wounds and kills the target'. The latter means you've eliminated a threat - I don't think you can quite quantify with mathhammer how much 'better' that is, but '50%' doesn't really cut it IMO.

I take that as a challenge, and I hope I have risen to:

Given it is a d3, you multiply thirds (33%) into the rest of the percentages helps quantify the d3 wounds. 50% of the time that you wound with a Destroyer (multiplied by 66%, the roll of 2-5) an iron Halo'd model will take 1 wound 100% of that (no change), but might have a 33% (again, multiply that in .66 x .5 x .33) of taking two wounds - -
and now those T6, 2 wound models (Nurgle beasts? ) die, unless FNP is possible. Maybe Biomancied TWC?

- - and yet another .33 multiplied to do 3 wounds.

Trasvi wrote:

I think that this is a time when the standard 'average result' mathhammer doesn't really apply, and you need to look at some more complicated analysis to determine the actual spread of results.
ie: the chance of doing 0 wounds, 1 wound, 2 wounds, killing the target

How's this?


Shoot. Hit. Roll a
Nothing.
'2-5' then you get a .66 x .5 (Iron Halo/Ruin Cover Save) x .33 to do 3 wounds. ~ 11%
'2-5' then you get a .66 x .5 (Iron Halo/Ruin Cover Save) x .66 to do 2 wounds ~22%
'2-5' then you get a .66 x .5 (Iron Halo/Ruin Cover Save) x 1.00 to do 1 wound ~33%
=

If the Invuln or Cover is 5++, then increase the .5 to .66 of the Save not working
'2-5' then you get a .66 x .66 (daemon Invuln/Cover Save) x .33 to do 3 wounds. 14%
'2-5' then you get a .66 x .66 (daemon Invuln/Cover Save) x .66 to do 2 wounds. 28%
'2-5' then you get a .66 x .66 (daemon Invuln/Cover Save) x 1 to do 1 wound. ~43%
=

Multiply all results by .66 to work in the factor of Wraith ballistic skill, and you now workable numbers:
To kill *anything/everything* .66 to hit, and 16% to get a = 10.56%. One in 10 shots from a Wraith removes pretty much all models, no Saves.

That said, I still think your analysis below is well done.

Trasvi wrote:

Against single wound models: D is better, because on a 6 it ignores FNP and saves.
Against 2+ wound models: D is better, because on a 6 it ignores FNP and saves, and against T6+ it still has the chance to cause 2-3 wounds on a 'normal' hit.
Against eternal warriors it is better: it can ID T<=5 models all the time; it does D3 wounds no matter what, possibly killing some other models regardless; it does 6+D6 wounds on a 6 with no saves.
Against other gargantuan creatures it is better: wounding on 2+ no matter what, and (essentially) killing on a 6 rather than just doing 2 extra wounds.
Against vehicles it is strictly better against AV12+.
Against anything with FNP it is better, as it ignores FNP all the time, meaning (coupled with D3 wounds) it does 2.66 times as many wounds.

Then you think - what am I actually targetting with these destroyer weapons?
Targets like Riptides, Imperial Knights, MC's of any variety, AV13/14 vehicles of any variety, Deathstars with FNP/T5/2+W/Invulnerables. And you realize that with a D weapon you're far more likely to ELIMINATE the target with your shooting than with Distort - and that is what really matters.

Yep, one in ten shots, roughly.

I wonder if there are any other guns, psy powers, *anything*, as good as Destroyers to do that? Force Toys? DreadKnight?

- - - - - - - - -
Oh, and these last few posts have skipped vehicles. Anyone care to rehit that part of the discussion?

Trasvi?

I'll start:
Destroyers (I'll use some adjectives) absolutely pants armor. P'wn them!




Automatically Appended Next Post:

 greyknight12 wrote:

 mortetvie wrote:
On a humorous side-note, it is my personal experience that my Wraith Knight shoots worse than an Ork, and this appears to be Brothererikose's experience as well? And yet the Wraith Knight is going to break the game!

Assuming no re-rolls from psychic powers (wraithknight with dual heavy wraithcannons)
5 turns: 6.67 hits
6 turns: 8 hits
7 turns: 9.33 hits

Multiplied by the OP's destroyer results you get:
5 turns: 4.27xD3, 1.07x(6+D6) wounds/hullpoints ignoring ID/explodes
6 turns: 5.12xD3, 1.28x(6+D6) wounds/hullpoints ignoring ID/explodes
7 turns: 6xD3, 1.5x(6+D6) wounds/hullpoints ignoring ID/explodes

Basically, once per game you are removing anything short of a massive superheavy with no saves allowed, and if the average of a D3 is 2 dealing 8+ hullpoints/wounds of damage.

Invul saves do help against d-scythes and rolls other than a "6" with the wraithcannons, just like they always did; however now when those saves are failed the new weapons are 1-3 times more effective while ignoring toughness and AV.

I wanted to come back to this post. Good stuff, but something ought to be added, Asssault.

The savvy eldar player is gonna put the WK into h2h, as his potential damage goes from two models per salvo, to the number of attacks and stomps. As fast as the WK is, he's likely to be in h2h at least by turn 3.

In my first game, it was involved in two assaults with Paladins and Draigo. One of those, lasting 3 rounds. Yeah, the WK won.

... which, now that I think about it, increases the odds of scoring a with the D-stompage. I dunno as if anyone needs to factor in the sword (makes h2h attacks Destroyer).

My gut feeling is that the primary advantage of the Sword/Shield combo is actually the shield. The WK doesn't really need the D weapon - against MOST targets the combination of 4-5 I5 S10 attacks and D3 stomps is going to be sufficient to take them out. If you've gotten in to a fistfight with something that can survive the S10 attacks and still hurt you back, odds are you're dead anyway.

Are the WK D cannons weapons AP1 or AP2?

I wonder how Grav weapons compare to Destroyer weapons in terms of damage out-put. Does anyone have any numbers or a thread regarding that info?