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2016/06/19 17:21:05
Subject: Brexit - what would it mean for GW and others?
I doubt it'll make much difference. GW are global so i'm not sure how it'll effect overseas to be honest. European FLGS may be effected, but i also doubt it again, but i'm not an economist. Europe aren't gonna wash their hands of us if we leave as we buy more than we sell from you, if anything we have the upper hand. But the system is needlessly complicated...
Besides, the brexit takes 2 years to happen anyway. It's all an over reactment
2016/06/19 17:43:38
Subject: Brexit - what would it mean for GW and others?
It all depends on the trade deals that Britain can make with other countries. If we strike the same deal with Europe as we have now (which I can't see) then there would be no change.
If there is improved trade with the US etc then they might see a reduction in price as there may be tax wavers etc.
2016/06/20 01:23:50
Subject: Brexit - what would it mean for GW and others?
Greetings folks. Today I want to take a small break from talking about toy soldiers and talk about something real.
As most of you will know, in one week's time, the UK will be holding a referendum on whether or not we should stay as part of the European Union.
There's been a great deal of misinformation and scare-mongering from both sides of the debate, and a lot of people don't seem to have any idea about the facts, never mind what to do with the information.
Today I want to try and convince you why you should VOTE REMAIN. Instead of bombarding you with facts and figures (which I can do if you want something specific), I'm going to give you an emotional reason of personal experience.
Icarus Miniatures wouldn't exist without the EU. Really it's as simple as that!
Some of you will already know parts of this story, but I'll tell it again in full so you get the whole picture.
---
I began seriously considering Icarus as a business in 2014 - I had just moved back to North Wales from Cardiff and I was looking for work.
Unfortunately, the only job I could find at the time was as a team member in Argos. My contract was for 10 hours a week, and I worked on average around 16 hours. However, because of the shift structure, I still found myself working 4/5 days a week.
This continued for almost a year. I had moved back North, in with my parents, with the hope of saving enough money to do something more. But I ended up having far less money than I'd had in Cardiff. This lead to some pretty serious bouts of depression, and I can honestly tell you I was not in a good place, emotionally.
Almost a year later, I took a trip to Careers Wales to see a jobs advisor because my attempts at finding other work myself were unsuccessful. The woman I spoke to pointed my in the direction of Jobs Growth Wales, a scheme that is funded by the European Social Fund (as is Careers Wales itself).
Through JGW I was able to secure a full-time job as a marketing Manager for a food company.
It's because of this that I was able to put enough money aside to even consider starting Icarus Miniatures.
Once I eventually left that secure job to focus on Icarus full time, I attended a variety of workshops and courses, funded by the EU, that gave me a lot of the skills needed to run a business.
And then earlier this year, I was able to secure a business loan, through an EU based scheme, so that I could keep bringing awesome miniatures to your tabletop.
At every step of this process going from lifeless worker bee, to the owner of a company that creates happiness, the EU has been instrumental to making sure I succeed.
If it wasn't for the EU schemes I was lucky enough to make use of, you wouldn't be reading this today, Icarus Miniatures wouldn't exist, and I have no idea what route my life would have taken. It's not an exaggeration to say that accessing those schemes and moving forward with them saved my life.
But being a part of the EU still helps Icarus Miniatures day-today.
As part of the single market, I can send high quality resin miniatures to gamers across Europe, and they don't have to worry about being slapped with customs charges.
If the UK leaves the EU, all of that might change. If our position in the common market changes and those customs charges being to come in, it will cost EU customers extra to buy an Icarus Miniature. At the moment most of our sales are only a few models at a time, but the value would still mean they could have up to 15 euros customs charges placed on them.
I certainly wouldn't pay almost twice as much to get my hands on a shiny new mini, and I don't expect the majority of European customers to do the same.
But the problem is 70% of Icarus' trade comes from overseas, with most of that coming from EU countries. I can't afford to lose out on nearly half of my overall customer-base. Icarus Miniatures likely wouldn't survive it. We're too young of a company to have the capital reserves to survive a drought like that while ramping up business elsewhere.
And I'm sure there are plenty of small uk-based mini companies that would be in the same situation as us.
So if you're not sure how to vote next Thursday, please, please vote to Remain so that we can keep bringing you miniature goodness!
And please share this around if you know someone that could benefit from an emotional reason not to leave!
Much love and happy gaming.
Anto
The poor man really has a stake in the country. The rich man hasn't; he can go away to New Guinea in a yacht. The poor have sometimes objected to being governed badly; the rich have always objected to being governed at all
We love our superheroes because they refuse to give up on us. We can analyze them out of existence, kill them, ban them, mock them, and still they return, patiently reminding us of who we are and what we wish we could be.
"the play's the thing wherein I'll catch the conscience of the king,
2016/06/20 08:02:29
Subject: Brexit - what would it mean for GW and others?
As above; GW itself probably won't be too badly affected (maybe a price hike in the EU, maybe the print material will have a price hike too as IIRC it's all printed in Poland), but the smaller companies will really hurt.
2016/06/20 08:42:36
Subject: Brexit - what would it mean for GW and others?
When we Brexit it'll almost have no effect. The pound exchange rate movement already dictates more of a price barrier to export than any potential 10% tax into the eu. (Which is itself unlikely to happen as we have a huge trade surplus inside the EU and doing a 10% tax would actually /make/ the UK money.. not GW. But it'd make the nation money and cost the eu 17 billion annually do it'd be unlikely to be invoked.
You have to remember GW is a manufacturer. Outside the EU the cost of raw materials will come crashing down. Becaue what is thought of a trading alliance, is actually a pay wall to bring things in. Things GW uses to manufacture with.
Most of the brexit changes would be beneficial to GW:
- massivley less red tape
- cheaper raw materials / cheaper machinary
- cheaper goods into USA and Australia*
It's incredibly unlikely GW would bring prices down for "us" but they'd do better, invest more in new content, and be more profitable which means more growth.
This last one is complex*
2016/06/20 09:20:18
Subject: Re:Brexit - what would it mean for GW and others?
Today I want to try and convince you why you should VOTE REMAIN. Instead of bombarding you with facts and figures (which I can do if you want something specific), I'm going to give you an emotional reason of personal experience.
.....
If the UK leaves the EU, all of that might change. If our position in the common market changes and those customs charges being to come in, it will cost EU customers extra to buy an Icarus Miniature. At the moment most of our sales are only a few models at a time, but the value would still mean they could have up to 15 euros customs charges placed on them.
I'm sure he's worried about his business, and uncertainty seems to be the thrust of his concern.
He seems to be a 'mom & pop' business selling 35mm infantry for 7.50 pounds a pop, in presumably low numbers.
I reckon most of his sales would therefore fall under 'Negligible Value' consignments.
PN 1179 - Relief from Customs Duty and VAT on gift consignments and consignments of negligible value imported from outside the European Union (EU) wrote:3. Consignments of Negligible Value
Consignments not exceeding an intrinsic value of €150 may be imported without payment of Customs Duty. (Intrinsic value is the value of the goods alone, and does not include insurance and freight). Consignments not exceeding a total customs value of €22 may be imported without payment of VAT. (Customs value is the value of the goods plus insurance and freight (which includes postage costs (CIF value)). However, it should be noted in particular that there is no relief (from Customs Duty, VAT or Excise duty) under this negligible value provision for importations of tobacco, tobacco products, alcohol products, perfumes or toilet waters irrespective of their value.
His 'bundles' of three guys (£22.50) don't actually offer any discount. If he discontinued these, and continued with the pairs (£15) there would be no single item on his store that would incur VAT or Customs.
If he gets cheaper materials and cheaper goods into the US/Australia, he comes out a winner.
2016/06/20 09:40:12
Subject: Brexit - what would it mean for GW and others?
That's a sad story, and i myself suffered with long term unemployment and having to get money other ways with no helpful support from the government. However as Angel points out, being out isn't the "end all" of it.
Unfortunately the reasons to vote in or out probably won't come into play for the majority of us, yet those are the reasons we are voting one way or another. Carry on as you were everyone.
2016/06/20 11:20:09
Subject: Brexit - what would it mean for GW and others?
EldarArmy wrote: When we Brexit it'll almost have no effect. The pound exchange rate movement already dictates more of a price barrier to export than any potential 10% tax into the eu. (Which is itself unlikely to happen as we have a huge trade surplus inside the EU and doing a 10% tax would actually /make/ the UK money.. not GW. But it'd make the nation money and cost the eu 17 billion annually do it'd be unlikely to be invoked.
But economists reckon the pound will drop? It's nothing to do with any potential taxes, more the economy. The GBP dropping will make GW more affordable for most.
You have to remember GW is a manufacturer. Outside the EU the cost of raw materials will come crashing down. Becaue what is thought of a trading alliance, is actually a pay wall to bring things in. Things GW uses to manufacture with.
How do you figure that? Outside of the EU, any raw materials sourced from the EU are only going to get more expensive if trade deals change.
2016/06/20 11:30:17
Subject: Brexit - what would it mean for GW and others?
You have to remember GW is a manufacturer. Outside the EU the cost of raw materials will come crashing down. Becaue what is thought of a trading alliance, is actually a pay wall to bring things in. Things GW uses to manufacture with.
How do you figure that? Outside of the EU, any raw materials sourced from the EU are only going to get more expensive if trade deals change.
This is one of the subtleties of the pay wall. Lets say that cellophane use for packaging costs £200,000 a year for GW. I have no idea what it costs probably not that much but bear with me. This is because cellophane costs £125,000 from china but £200,000 from Italy. (including shipping etc) but the EU taxes the Chinese import at £100,000. So GW buys from Italy.
This extra cost is actually a cost to the consumer. You, the consumer, are paying the extra £75,000 the EU (effectively) puts on that keeps the Italian cellophane firm producing at it's expensive rate. What #brexit would mean is that you can get it from China for next to half price. GW saves £75,000 (which as I already said they'd doubtless keep and not pass on)
I don't actually know the materials costs for GW - I suspect it's a lot of packaging, a lot of bespoke injection machines they have to get made, and the repair and spare parts for those, they might fabricate their own machines for all I know.
But it is one of the myths that a EU "pay wall" on raw materials benefits industry - it benefits the "initial" industry that does well (say Steel) but everyone in theEU - like car makers etc etc - who makes (say) Steel things has to put their prices up which makes them harder to sell etc etc etc
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2016/06/20 11:30:47
2016/06/20 11:33:43
Subject: Brexit - what would it mean for GW and others?
I'd say no-one really knows how this will pan out until the Brexit actually happens on Thursday (if at all). Even then it'll take years to sort out all the bs that comes with it. At the moment, it's all speculation or fearmongering.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2016/06/20 11:37:48
Right, so assuming the UK doesn't introduce any import tariffs (which they most likely will?) they'll be able to get the goods cheaper from a non-tariffed route? That makes sense, but there's no guarantee that things will actually improve if leaving the EU. Bear in mind that we'll have to make all sorts of concessions in order to keep the free trade to the EU anyway, so we might still get to pay any EU tariffs that apply. The EU holds all of the cards in this perspective, as we export a lot more to them as a percentage, than they export to us.
I don't actually know where GW gets its materials from. I know it gets some large resin stuff made in China, and it seems that White Dwarf is printed in Eastern Europe. Are the books Chinese too?
2016/06/20 11:46:08
Subject: Re:Brexit - what would it mean for GW and others?
Well, it is up to the British. But if the pound tanks, which it probably will, I'm going to buy a bunch of stuff from small manufacturers. It might tank the Euro too, which is good news for those of us in the US eyeing neat european figures.
2016/06/20 12:14:25
Subject: Brexit - what would it mean for GW and others?
Herzlos wrote: Right, so assuming the UK doesn't introduce any import tariffs (which they most likely will?) they'll be able to get the goods cheaper from a non-tariffed route? That makes sense, but there's no guarantee that things will actually improve if leaving the EU. Bear in mind that we'll have to make all sorts of concessions in order to keep the free trade to the EU anyway, so we might still get to pay any EU tariffs that apply. The EU holds all of the cards in this perspective, as we export a lot more to them as a percentage, than they export to us.
I don't actually know where GW gets its materials from. I know it gets some large resin stuff made in China, and it seems that White Dwarf is printed in Eastern Europe. Are the books Chinese too?
In the event of a Brexit the UK will no longer be required to follow the EU rules - thus they can say that we'd need to apply a large tariff to china imports, but we'd be in are rights to tell them to get lost.
Now MAYBE we would agree to it as part of a free trade deal with the EU, but I seriously doubt any UK government would agree to such a deal if the UK does vote out - if they did then could expect to lose the next election as it's just be keeping us in the EU via the backdoor.
2016/06/20 13:01:23
Subject: Brexit - what would it mean for GW and others?
Now MAYBE we would agree to it as part of a free trade deal with the EU, but I seriously doubt any UK government would agree to such a deal if the UK does vote out - if they did then could expect to lose the next election as it's just be keeping us in the EU via the backdoor.
I suspect the UK government will do exactly what it's told in order to continue trading with the UK. Cameron has already shown himself to be completely incapable of negotiating with, well, anyone. As I said; we need open trade with the EU more than the EU needs open trade with the UK, and we've burnt any good will we have.
2016/06/20 14:04:53
Subject: Re:Brexit - what would it mean for GW and others?
If Brexit happens, then I imagine any PLC companies that lose money over the next few years (for whatever reason), will be pointing the finger at Brexit, when the time comes to explain themselves to shareholders. GW has a history of regularly hiking prices, and externalising problems. Blaming whatever farcical reasons they think they can get away with. This is the company that raised prices after switching to a cheaper material. Whether Kevin Rountree will continue with that approach is yet to be seen, but I'm damn sure with Kirby at the helm we would have seen prices go up and the finger pointed at Brexit, while sales continued to slump, with the finger pointed at Brexit.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2016/06/20 14:05:33
2016/06/20 14:06:51
Subject: Re:Brexit - what would it mean for GW and others?
Greetings folks. Today I want to take a small break from talking about toy soldiers and talk about something real.
As most of you will know, in one week's time, the UK will be holding a referendum on whether or not we should stay as part of the European Union.
There's been a great deal of misinformation and scare-mongering from both sides of the debate, and a lot of people don't seem to have any idea about the facts, never mind what to do with the information.
Today I want to try and convince you why you should VOTE REMAIN. Instead of bombarding you with facts and figures (which I can do if you want something specific), I'm going to give you an emotional reason of personal experience.
Icarus Miniatures wouldn't exist without the EU. Really it's as simple as that!
Some of you will already know parts of this story, but I'll tell it again in full so you get the whole picture.
---
I began seriously considering Icarus as a business in 2014 - I had just moved back to North Wales from Cardiff and I was looking for work.
Unfortunately, the only job I could find at the time was as a team member in Argos. My contract was for 10 hours a week, and I worked on average around 16 hours. However, because of the shift structure, I still found myself working 4/5 days a week.
This continued for almost a year. I had moved back North, in with my parents, with the hope of saving enough money to do something more. But I ended up having far less money than I'd had in Cardiff. This lead to some pretty serious bouts of depression, and I can honestly tell you I was not in a good place, emotionally.
Almost a year later, I took a trip to Careers Wales to see a jobs advisor because my attempts at finding other work myself were unsuccessful. The woman I spoke to pointed my in the direction of Jobs Growth Wales, a scheme that is funded by the European Social Fund (as is Careers Wales itself).
Through JGW I was able to secure a full-time job as a marketing Manager for a food company.
It's because of this that I was able to put enough money aside to even consider starting Icarus Miniatures.
Once I eventually left that secure job to focus on Icarus full time, I attended a variety of workshops and courses, funded by the EU, that gave me a lot of the skills needed to run a business.
And then earlier this year, I was able to secure a business loan, through an EU based scheme, so that I could keep bringing awesome miniatures to your tabletop.
At every step of this process going from lifeless worker bee, to the owner of a company that creates happiness, the EU has been instrumental to making sure I succeed.
If it wasn't for the EU schemes I was lucky enough to make use of, you wouldn't be reading this today, Icarus Miniatures wouldn't exist, and I have no idea what route my life would have taken. It's not an exaggeration to say that accessing those schemes and moving forward with them saved my life.
But being a part of the EU still helps Icarus Miniatures day-today.
As part of the single market, I can send high quality resin miniatures to gamers across Europe, and they don't have to worry about being slapped with customs charges.
If the UK leaves the EU, all of that might change. If our position in the common market changes and those customs charges being to come in, it will cost EU customers extra to buy an Icarus Miniature. At the moment most of our sales are only a few models at a time, but the value would still mean they could have up to 15 euros customs charges placed on them.
I certainly wouldn't pay almost twice as much to get my hands on a shiny new mini, and I don't expect the majority of European customers to do the same.
But the problem is 70% of Icarus' trade comes from overseas, with most of that coming from EU countries. I can't afford to lose out on nearly half of my overall customer-base. Icarus Miniatures likely wouldn't survive it. We're too young of a company to have the capital reserves to survive a drought like that while ramping up business elsewhere.
And I'm sure there are plenty of small uk-based mini companies that would be in the same situation as us.
So if you're not sure how to vote next Thursday, please, please vote to Remain so that we can keep bringing you miniature goodness!
And please share this around if you know someone that could benefit from an emotional reason not to leave!
Much love and happy gaming.
Anto
It is sad that most people don't even realise all the stuff the EU does for them on an everyday basis. I bet they will notice once it is gone though, at least that will be some vindication.
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2016/06/20 14:34:36
Subject: Brexit - what would it mean for GW and others?
GW will be able to show even more artificially inflated profits because they'll still charge the old price or more in the Eurozone but get a lot more Pound per euro out of it.
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2016/06/20 14:49:47
Subject: Re:Brexit - what would it mean for GW and others?
I look at Australia and think: there's a non-EU country, but they still manage to play GW games and wargame in general, and they survive.
Besides, there's a two year period of negotiations, so we've no idea how it will pan out.
"Our crops will wither, our children will die piteous
deaths and the sun will be swept from the sky. But is it true?" - Tom Kirby, CEO, Games Workshop Ltd
2016/06/20 16:13:23
Subject: Re:Brexit - what would it mean for GW and others?
Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote: I look at Australia and think: there's a non-EU country, but they still manage to play GW games and wargame in general, and they survive.
Besides, there's a two year period of negotiations, so we've no idea how it will pan out.
So you're saying Europe needs more crocodiles?
2016/06/20 17:16:43
Subject: Brexit - what would it mean for GW and others?
The EU is third biggest paper producer in the world.
Raw plastic pellets are so dirt cheap it won't make any difference where they are sourced.
We'll have the same red tape because we won't be able to ignore EU standards as they are our no.1 trading partner. Look at Norway for example of life outside the EU.
The main benefit to GW will be the fall in value of the GBP in foreign exchange. This will make GW kits cheaper outside the UK, giving them a boost in sales.
Kilkrazy wrote: The EU is third biggest paper producer in the world.
Raw plastic pellets are so dirt cheap it won't make any difference where they are sourced.
We'll have the same red tape because we won't be able to ignore EU standards as they are our no.1 trading partner. Look at Norway for example of life outside the EU.
The main benefit to GW will be the fall in value of the GBP in foreign exchange. This will make GW kits cheaper outside the UK, giving them a boost in sales.
Yep, pretty much. The whole tariff thing is a red herring as well; OK, GW won't have to pay extra for cellophane wrapping to protect Italian workers from Chinese imports...as long as we're not in EFTA(which requires you to obey pretty much all the same rules & regs as EU membership, but without any say in the lawmaking aspect), and if we're not in EFTA then the EU will be imposing tariffs on us, because they're not morons and they're not going to allow the UK to become essentially a front for getting cheap Chinese imports past EU regulations and tariffs. And anyone who thinks companies like GW are going to pass any and all such costs exclusively on to customers on the continent while belting out a resounding chorus of "Rule Britannia" and slashing prices in the UK is fantasizing.
"Your society's broken, so who should we blame? Should we blame the rich, powerful people who caused it? No, lets blame the people with no power and no money and those immigrants who don't even have the vote. Yea, it must be their fething fault." - Iain M Banks
-----
"The language of modern British politics is meant to sound benign. But words do not mean what they seem to mean. 'Reform' actually means 'cut' or 'end'. 'Flexibility' really means 'exploit'. 'Prudence' really means 'don't invest'. And 'efficient'? That means whatever you want it to mean, usually 'cut'. All really mean 'keep wages low for the masses, taxes low for the rich, profits high for the corporations, and accept the decline in public services and amenities this will cause'." - Robin McAlpine from Common Weal
2016/06/20 20:04:10
Subject: Re:Brexit - what would it mean for GW and others?
shows most countries apply a 0% rate on board & table top games so can't see anything changing on this. Obviously as already mentioned the pound weakening in the event of Brexit makes exports cheaper if the exporter chooses to pass the savings on.
We'll know soon enough if this scenario will come to pass. Of course me being crazy enough to be a counting agent on the night at one of the last constituencies to declare (est 7.00 am) it may seem slightly longer for me!
2016/06/21 07:34:57
Subject: Re:Brexit - what would it mean for GW and others?
shows most countries apply a 0% rate on board & table top games so can't see anything changing on this. Obviously as already mentioned the pound weakening in the event of Brexit makes exports cheaper if the exporter chooses to pass the savings on.
We'll know soon enough if this scenario will come to pass. Of course me being crazy enough to be a counting agent on the night at one of the last constituencies to declare (est 7.00 am) it may seem slightly longer for me!
The import duty for HS 9503.00.8500 (the classification I think GW models fall in under) is 4,7% in the EU for countries with MFN status. It's 0% now beacuse, yaknow, the UK is in the EU.
As for Brexit. Yeah, it's not good for GW. in the very short term, sure, they may catch a currency windfall (although they have £12,5m in liabilities and whatever's not in pounds will be a problem), but there is a world after Christmas too. And a domestic market that would go straight down the toilet as well.
Rule of the thumb; when you are an exporter, increasing trade barriers to your largest market is never a good thing.
Oh, and EU red tape? Please! Exporting to the EU is a delight compared to literally anywhere else.
"The Emporer is a rouge trader."
- Charlie Chaplain.
2016/06/21 07:39:13
Subject: Brexit - what would it mean for GW and others?
If we leave the EU it will mean alot more paper work for me. About 1/3 of my business is in europe. If we leave I will have to put customs labels on all the packages going into europe/russia. Lame.
This will take more time. Its the same for all export businesses, so this will obviously add a direct cost to all shipping in europe.
" I'm sorry, but after 7200 's that has to be the most annoying sign-off ever." 
Legion: Dark Angels 
