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Iran TV: US spy drone shot down over Iran @ 2011/12/04 16:36:57


Post by: Do_I_Not_Like_That


From Sky News:

Iran's military has shot down an unmanned US aircraft over the east of the country, state TV has reported.

"Iran's military has downed an intruding RQ-170 American drone in eastern Iran," Iran's Arabic-language Al Alam state television network quoted an unnamed military source as saying.

A report on English-language Press TV said the drone was "downed with minimum damage" and seized by Iranian officials.

The RQ-170 Sentinel is an unmanned stealth aircraft used for reconnaissance. It is not designed to carry weapons.

The semi-official Fars news agency, which is believed to be close to the Revolutionary Guard military force, said Iran would respond to the violation of its airspace with actions beyond its own borders.

There was no immediate comment on the claims from the US military.

The reports came amid worsening relations between the West and Iran over its nuclear programme after the UN's International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) issued a report it said showed Iran had worked on designing an atomic bomb .

Iran has insisted its nuclear ambitions are entirely peaceful, but prompted the US and European Union to agree tighter sanctions on Iranian companies and individuals.

Earlier on Sunday, Iran's foreign ministry warned that any move to extend those sanctions to block oil exports would double the price of crude.

"As soon as such an issue is raised seriously the oil price would soar to above \$250 a barrel," foreign ministry spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast was quoted as saying.

More to follow...


Seems to be deja vu all over again when it comes to building a case for war. If America wants to attack Iran, then good luck to them. My only hope is that British soldiers don't get dragged into this, but seeing as Cameron is spineless, then it's a forlorn hope.


Iran TV: US spy drone shot down over Iran @ 2011/12/04 16:53:39


Post by: mattyrm


Why is Cameron spineless? What are you basing this on?


Iran TV: US spy drone shot down over Iran @ 2011/12/04 17:05:32


Post by: Albatross


mattyrm wrote:Why is Cameron spineless? What are you basing this on?

Yeah, that's a strange one. He's by no means a Dove. He pushed pretty hard for intervention in Libya, after all. Also, how is wanting to get involved in a war 'spineless'?


Iran TV: US spy drone shot down over Iran @ 2011/12/04 17:27:26


Post by: murdog


I'm not saying he is or isn't spineless, but wanting to get involved in a war alongside the US means that for some, once again the Brit PM will be seen as the lapdog of the President.



Iran TV: US spy drone shot down over Iran @ 2011/12/04 17:30:56


Post by: LoneLictor


Damn, hope the US doesn't get involved in another war we don't really need.


Iran TV: US spy drone shot down over Iran @ 2011/12/04 17:34:38


Post by: Orlanth


Cameron is certainly not Obama's lapdog. He has distanced himself from the tone of relationship between Blair Brown the the US presidents in office at the time.

Besides Obama is not to be trusted, not by us anyway.


Iran TV: US spy drone shot down over Iran @ 2011/12/04 17:39:43


Post by: LordofHats


If anyone is going to get dragged into a war with Iran at this point it'll be the UK. If a war starts I don't think there's a way to avoid it and it really looks like there might be a war.

Look on the bright side though, if there is, Iran started it with a suicidal foreign policy


Iran TV: US spy drone shot down over Iran @ 2011/12/04 17:39:46


Post by: Orlanth


Back to Iran shooting down the drone.

Its an incursion, by an unmanned military unit, shooting it down was within the Iranians rights. It sends a message and one they have a right to send, noone has the right to intrude upon their airspace, especially not with as military unit. Iran's borders are not contested, so there is no excuse to claim that the territory was not Iranian.

Hopefully this story will die down and not be considered a provocative act by Iran. Iran was not being provocative, whoever sent the drone was.


Iran TV: US spy drone shot down over Iran @ 2011/12/04 17:42:43


Post by: LordofHats


Orlanth wrote:Hopefully this story will die down and not be considered a provocative act by Iran. Iran was not being provocative, whoever sent the drone was.


Iran has been provocative. The drone was shot down near a nuclear site. Iran's refusal to cease its development program has sent us in this direction. Alternatively, we could ignore the very obvious weapons development in the country, but Iran isn't a county I'd trust with nukes. They supply terrorist organizations, fund insurgent operations, and destabilize the whole the region. Iran has been proxy killing US troops for nearly a decade now.

No one is to blame but Iran for this situation.


Iran TV: US spy drone shot down over Iran @ 2011/12/04 17:58:36


Post by: Orlanth


LordofHats wrote:
Orlanth wrote:Hopefully this story will die down and not be considered a provocative act by Iran. Iran was not being provocative, whoever sent the drone was.


Iran has been provocative. The drone was shot down near a nuclear site. Iran's refusal to cease its development program has sent us in this direction. Alternatively, we could ignore the very obvious weapons development in the country, but Iran isn't a county I'd trust with nukes. They supply terrorist organizations, fund insurgent operations, and destabilize the whole the region. Iran has been proxy killing US troops for nearly a decade now.

No one is to blame but Iran for this situation.


Iraq complied, we know how that turned out.
North Korea hasn't, and got away with it.
On top of that Israel completely and blatantly ignores international arms development limitations. They have also threatened to use nukes, which is something Iran has yet to say.

I can see Irans point of view. More to the point so does China and to a lesser extent Russia.


Iran TV: US spy drone shot down over Iran @ 2011/12/04 18:01:02


Post by: Pyriel-


Any proof that a drone was actually shot down? Pics or it didnt happen.
Or is it another one of those photoshopped iranian missiles deal?


Iran TV: US spy drone shot down over Iran @ 2011/12/04 18:09:14


Post by: dogma


LordofHats wrote:If anyone is going to get dragged into a war with Iran at this point it'll be the UK. If a war starts I don't think there's a way to avoid it and it really looks like there might be a war.

Look on the bright side though, if there is, Iran started it with a suicidal foreign policy


So, I should put the words "Middle" "East" and "specialist" in bold when I submit my application to State?


Iran TV: US spy drone shot down over Iran @ 2011/12/04 18:10:01


Post by: purplefood


Pyriel- wrote:Any proof that a drone was actually shot down? Pics or it didnt happen.
Or is it another one of those photoshopped iranian missiles deal?

+Any proof that it was American?


Iran TV: US spy drone shot down over Iran @ 2011/12/04 18:40:00


Post by: mstersmith3


I dont mind the nation smashing part of war its the bs nation building and COIN operations that cause casualties. Go in smash their toys pack our crap and go home. I am hoping we have learned our leason from Iraq and Afghanistan but then again they said the same about Vietnam.


Iran TV: US spy drone shot down over Iran @ 2011/12/04 18:46:47


Post by: Jihadin


"Iran's military has downed an intruding RQ-170 American drone in eastern Iran," Iran's Arabic-language Al Alam state television network quoted the unnamed source as saying.


So um....


Iran TV: US spy drone shot down over Iran @ 2011/12/04 18:55:17


Post by: Kanluwen


They've claimed this before.

They've also claimed they created their own drone, and it looked like a photoshopped RQ-170 in the pressjunkets.


Iran TV: US spy drone shot down over Iran @ 2011/12/04 18:56:42


Post by: LordofHats


dogma wrote:So, I should put the words "Middle" "East" and "specialist" in bold when I submit my application to State?


It never hurts

I doubt Iran would claim to have shot down a drone if it hadn't shot one down. The US is the world's number 1 operator of drones and given the situation and location of the incident it seems very probable that a drone would have been in the area and may have been shot down. Maybe not, but it's not outside possibility.

Iraq complied, we know how that turned out.


Iraq was a different situation. They got called out for invading Kuwait for first time and we told them to cease there. If anything, the second invasion where we thought they still had WMD's should have told Iran 'we will invade you' not the opposite.

North Korea hasn't, and got away with it.


North Korea is shielded by proximity to China (and I'm sure Iran isn't so dumb as to not know that). The idea that China or Russia care about Iran's arms development is meaningless. The US could do a turn around, be for Iran with nukes, and China and Russia would decry the US as destabilizing the Middle East and proliferating WMD. I don't care what Russia or China vote for in the UNSC. They usual just vote the opposite of what the US wants for no other reason than the US wants it. It's international posturing.


Iran TV: US spy drone shot down over Iran @ 2011/12/04 19:14:00


Post by: Jihadin


Didn't germany kind of staged something similiar with Poland before they invaded?


Iran TV: US spy drone shot down over Iran @ 2011/12/04 19:19:02


Post by: halonachos


I'm sure Israel will do something well before any US or UK action takes place.I heartily believe that the munitions dept explosion earlier this year was some sort of Israeli black ops but Iran doesn't want to own up to that.


Iran TV: US spy drone shot down over Iran @ 2011/12/04 19:49:32


Post by: Do_I_Not_Like_That


If Iranian TV says it was an American drone, then that's good enough for me.

@Jihadin, Yeah, the Germans did do that. They took prisoners from a concentration camp, dressed them up as German Infantry and got the SS to shoot them, and blamed it on Poland.

Any attack would be sheer lunacy - driving up oil prices at a time of recession, not to mention the innocent women and children who always seem to die at the hands of warmongers, be they British/American/Iranian whatever.

Britain has been meddling in Iranian affairs for years, it's high time we stopped.


Iran TV: US spy drone shot down over Iran @ 2011/12/04 20:18:19


Post by: Jihadin


So Iran going to invade Afghanistan to get to the us....Coalition Forces.....maybe the drone shoot down is Iran wayto draw some heat of them from UK embassy..Iran invade Afghanistan....I couldn't give Afghanistan land fast enough to them if I had a choice...


Iran TV: US spy drone shot down over Iran @ 2011/12/04 20:57:02


Post by: Melissia


Just build another one.


Automatically Appended Next Post:
Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote:If Iranian TV says it was an American drone, then that's good enough for me.
Trololololololol


Iran TV: US spy drone shot down over Iran @ 2011/12/04 22:46:03


Post by: Pyriel-


Any attack would be sheer lunacy - driving up oil prices at a time of recession, not to mention the innocent women and children who always seem to die at the hands of warmongers, be they British/American/Iranian whatever.

Not necessarily. It also depends on what the saudi and kuwait does, they could comply regarding to keeping oil prices low for a while.


Iran TV: US spy drone shot down over Iran @ 2011/12/04 22:51:06


Post by: Jihadin


Any attack would be sheer lunacy - driving up oil prices at a time of recession, not to mention the innocent women and children who always seem to die at the hands of warmongers, be they British/American/Iranian whatever.


US does not buy oil from Iran


Iran TV: US spy drone shot down over Iran @ 2011/12/04 23:04:09


Post by: Ketara


Orlanth wrote:On top of that Israel completely and blatantly ignores international arms development limitations. They have also threatened to use nukes, which is something Iran has yet to say.


When was that? Israel has never even officially admitted to possessing nukes, let alone threatening to use them on anyone.


Iran TV: US spy drone shot down over Iran @ 2011/12/05 00:03:26


Post by: ShumaGorath


Ketara wrote:
Orlanth wrote:On top of that Israel completely and blatantly ignores international arms development limitations. They have also threatened to use nukes, which is something Iran has yet to say.


When was that? Israel has never even officially admitted to possessing nukes, let alone threatening to use them on anyone.


Iran has also threatened to wipe israel off the face of the earth. Not with nukes as they "don't have them", but the sentiment is fairly clear.



Honestly, this sounds like a propaganda piece to me. Iran doesn't have something other then dumbfire anti air that can shoot down a modern stealth aircraft, and they'd have to see or find it first. Given the current drone track record the thing could of just fallen out of the sky on it's own accord though. Irans government is nothing if not opportunistic in it's effort to keep the populace xenophobic and anti western.


Iran TV: US spy drone shot down over Iran @ 2011/12/05 00:13:46


Post by: Jihadin


Iran has also threatened to wipe israel off the face of the earth. Not with nukes as they "don't have them", but the sentiment is fairly clear


I'm with Shumster here. Iran I'manutforpresident has stated that quite a few time. Do believe he even said it once in the UN during one of the shopping spree his group done.

Has Iran produce the drone aircraft yet? Pics? When the stealth fighter got shot down in Kosovo we were seeing the actual aircraft in like 4 hrs or something. BTW it was done by using SAM site radars and they guessed a point in air to get the aircraft.


Iran TV: US spy drone shot down over Iran @ 2011/12/05 00:23:00


Post by: Melissia


They've also threatened to bomb Turkey too.


Iran TV: US spy drone shot down over Iran @ 2011/12/05 00:29:17


Post by: Jihadin


Turkey part of NATO so and have a missil defence system in place. Do believe they brought some Patriots. He's going to hit Isreal first just to unit the Islam pop.


Iran TV: US spy drone shot down over Iran @ 2011/12/05 00:55:07


Post by: AustonT


"Iran's military has downed an intruding RQ-170 American drone in eastern Iran,"

I doubt it, for a number of reasons. Not the least of which is Iran's frequently less than reliable news reporting. This is opportunistic propaganda at it's finest. Earlier this week ISAF said they lost a UAV or more specifically
A U.S. official with knowledge of the incident said the crew operating the unmanned drone reported a loss of flight control just before the drone went down.

first of all I doubt it was an Air Force UAV, second I doubt it was a satcom UAV, third I doubt landed in Iran. I expect pictures to be released in the media of tue offending dirt dart surrounded by recovery team to surface within days. Or more like a hill side covered in grey paint chips and smashed computer bits barely recognizable as something that flies


Iran TV: US spy drone shot down over Iran @ 2011/12/05 01:08:47


Post by: Jihadin


Hellfire blew up on impact...why we have little pieces here......rrriiigghhhhhhttttttttt


Iran TV: US spy drone shot down over Iran @ 2011/12/05 01:16:30


Post by: purplefood


It would be weird if it turned out to be part of a plot to start a war between America and Iran which would eventually culminate in a new World War... all orchastrated by the Swiss...
Yeah that would be odd...


Iran TV: US spy drone shot down over Iran @ 2011/12/05 01:36:13


Post by: biccat


Orlanth wrote:Besides Obama is not to be trusted, not by us anyway.

Not by us either, tbh.

I find this extremely unconvincing, especially given Iran's habit of using photoshop to outright lie about military events.

Even if true, we should reply "Sorry, we were trying to figure out where the weapons you're shipping into Iraq and Afghanistan were coming from."


Iran TV: US spy drone shot down over Iran @ 2011/12/05 02:00:56


Post by: dogma


LordofHats wrote:They supply terrorist organizations, fund insurgent operations, and destabilize the whole the region.


Wait, are we talking about the United States?


Iran TV: US spy drone shot down over Iran @ 2011/12/05 02:13:45


Post by: CT GAMER


For a country that produced the self-proclaimed legend that is Mattrym you Brits sure are whinning a lot about doing what he repeatedly suggests he would love to do...



Iran TV: US spy drone shot down over Iran @ 2011/12/05 02:19:03


Post by: purplefood


CT GAMER wrote:For a country that produced the self-proclaimed legend that is Mattrym you Brits sure are whinning a lot about doing what he repeatedly suggests he would love to do...


Shoot down a US UAV?
I haven't seen him express that particular ambition...


Iran TV: US spy drone shot down over Iran @ 2011/12/05 03:06:48


Post by: LordofHats


dogma wrote:
LordofHats wrote:They supply terrorist organizations, fund insurgent operations, and destabilize the whole the region.


Wait, are we talking about the United States?






Iran TV: US spy drone shot down over Iran @ 2011/12/05 04:23:51


Post by: Orlanth


LordofHats wrote:
Iraq complied, we know how that turned out.


Iraq was a different situation. They got called out for invading Kuwait for first time and we told them to cease there. If anything, the second invasion where we thought they still had WMD's should have told Iran 'we will invade you' not the opposite.



Kuwait was done and dusted in 91. Also Bush/Blair didn't think they still had WMD, they knew they didnt, but claimed they did anyway.

LordofHats wrote:
North Korea hasn't, and got away with it.

North Korea is shielded by proximity to China (and I'm sure Iran isn't so dumb as to not know that). The idea that China or Russia care about Iran's arms development is meaningless. The US could do a turn around, be for Iran with nukes, and China and Russia would decry the US as destabilizing the Middle East and proliferating WMD. I don't care what Russia or China vote for in the UNSC. They usual just vote the opposite of what the US wants for no other reason than the US wants it. It's international posturing.


Iran is also shielded by China. Did you notice when Iran declared their weapons program? The same week in 2005 that Bush declared the US 'right' to attack nations building WMD without warning. This was seen as a dangerous challenge which China and Russia responded to indirectly, Iran is not as stupid as it is made out to be, practically all the scientists involved are from the former Soviet Union and it appears a lost of the materiel comes from China. They wouldnt do what they did especially then without backup.


Iran TV: US spy drone shot down over Iran @ 2011/12/05 04:32:41


Post by: dogma


Orlanth wrote:Also Bush/Blair didn't think they still had WMD, they knew they didnt, but claimed they did anyway.


Never waste a good crisis.

Orlanth wrote:
Iran is not as stupid as it is made out to be, practically all the scientists involved are from the former Soviet Union and it appears a lost of the materiel comes from China. They wouldnt do what they did especially then without backup.


Smartest thing you've ever said.


Iran TV: US spy drone shot down over Iran @ 2011/12/05 05:05:32


Post by: LordofHats


Orlanth wrote:[Iran is also shielded by China.


I was unaware Iran and China shared a border. North Korea gets saved because China is literally right there. That's not so with Iran.


Iran TV: US spy drone shot down over Iran @ 2011/12/05 05:26:48


Post by: Orlanth


LordofHats wrote:
Orlanth wrote:[Iran is also shielded by China.


I was unaware Iran and China shared a border. North Korea gets saved because China is literally right there. That's not so with Iran.


It doesn't have a direct border with the US either.

What it does have is direct access to Russia via the Caspian and is connected to China via one country, Pakistan and Afghanistan.

In either case its a direct flight from China. You want to shoot down Chinese heavy transport aircraft over Pakistan and Afghanistan? I hope not.


Iran TV: US spy drone shot down over Iran @ 2011/12/05 06:09:18


Post by: LordofHats


Orlanth wrote:It doesn't have a direct border with the US either.

What it does have is direct access to Russia via the Caspian and is connected to China via one country, Pakistan and Afghanistan.

In either case its a direct flight from China. You want to shoot down Chinese heavy transport aircraft over Pakistan and Afghanistan? I hope not.


You really don't comprehend the difference between being right next door and being a few hours away?

That's not even talking about the fallout of the Korean War. There's a reason North Korea gets away with it and its because of China. There's a reason Iran doesn't and it's because no one worries about anyone helping Iran if it gets attacked.


Iran TV: US spy drone shot down over Iran @ 2011/12/05 06:17:23


Post by: AustonT


Jihadin wrote:Hellfire blew up on impact...why we have little pieces here......rrriiigghhhhhhttttttttt

At perfectly legit crash sights it can look like someone put a grey primed carbon fiber body kit for a daewoo through a woodchipper and sprinkled the smashed remains of an old desktop into the bucket and slung the whole mess across a hill.
Particularly satisfying if you aren't fond of the system in question (RQ-7).
I mean..."I heard..."


Iran TV: US spy drone shot down over Iran @ 2011/12/05 07:08:55


Post by: dogma


LordofHats wrote:There's a reason Iran doesn't and it's because no one worries about anyone helping Iran if it gets attacked.


Iran doesn't really need help. Its huge, mountainous, and possessed of a strong historical culture. Not really invasion fodder.


Iran TV: US spy drone shot down over Iran @ 2011/12/05 07:13:42


Post by: LordofHats


dogma wrote:
LordofHats wrote:There's a reason Iran doesn't and it's because no one worries about anyone helping Iran if it gets attacked.


Iran doesn't really need help. Its huge, mountainous, and possessed of a strong historical culture. Not really invasion fodder.


They've been invaded plenty of times. Not as many times as say, Greece, but plenty. All those things are somewhat irrelevant to the matter of Iran's international support, which is really just for show. They have no sphere of influence. No allies in the region they can rely on, and China and Russia aren't going to do anything but talk.


Iran TV: US spy drone shot down over Iran @ 2011/12/05 08:23:33


Post by: dogma


What country in the world is capable (political will is a component of capability) of invading, occupying, and altering the government of Iran?


Iran TV: US spy drone shot down over Iran @ 2011/12/05 11:40:19


Post by: CT GAMER


purplefood wrote:
CT GAMER wrote:For a country that produced the self-proclaimed legend that is Mattrym you Brits sure are whinning a lot about doing what he repeatedly suggests he would love to do...


Kill everyone who owns a turban? Oh yeah good point.


Iran TV: US spy drone shot down over Iran @ 2011/12/05 12:50:19


Post by: Frazzled


Melissia wrote:They've also threatened to bomb Turkey too.


No thats a mistranslation. The original Farsi said they threatened to bomb us with turkeys. Gobble gobble!


Iran TV: US spy drone shot down over Iran @ 2011/12/05 13:16:55


Post by: Huffy


ShumaGorath wrote:
Ketara wrote:
Orlanth wrote:On top of that Israel completely and blatantly ignores international arms development limitations. They have also threatened to use nukes, which is something Iran has yet to say.


When was that? Israel has never even officially admitted to possessing nukes, let alone threatening to use them on anyone.


Iran has also threatened to wipe israel off the face of the earth. Not with nukes as they "don't have them", but the sentiment is fairly clear.



Honestly, this sounds like a propaganda piece to me. Iran doesn't have something other then dumbfire anti air that can shoot down a modern stealth aircraft, and they'd have to see or find it first. Given the current drone track record the thing could of just fallen out of the sky on it's own accord though. Irans government is nothing if not opportunistic in it's effort to keep the populace xenophobic and anti western.


So I just saw this on msn, a drone did crash in Iran, US says no indication that it was shot down, but we say that we lost control of it in Afghanistan, it flew into Iran where it crashed or possibly shot down..who knows
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/45541622/ns/world_news-mideast_n_africa/t/us-no-indication-drone-iran-was-shot-down/#.TtzBd2OIm0s


Iran TV: US spy drone shot down over Iran @ 2011/12/05 13:22:07


Post by: Jihadin


The plot thickens


Iran TV: US spy drone shot down over Iran @ 2011/12/05 13:56:01


Post by: Orlanth


LordofHats wrote:


That's not even talking about the fallout of the Korean War. There's a reason North Korea gets away with it and its because of China. There's a reason Iran doesn't and it's because no one worries about anyone helping Iran if it gets attacked.


Well Iran are getting away with it. The covert attacks are mostly by Israel in all likelihood, Israel not caring too much about North Korea. Other than that western responses to both nations programs have been near identical.
It is very unlikely the US will invade or launch a major attack despite petitions for such by Israel.

Meanwhile China and Russia will do what they can to cover for the Iranians. I do not think China wants Iran to have the bomb as much as place the US in a position where to get rid of an extant Iranian bomb it will need to stop vetoing resolutions against Israel for a while. Its a ploy with a reasonable chance of working, Israel sees this coming and are not happy and therefore are intent on taking as much action as they can now. I do not think Iran will try to nuke Israel they are not that dumb, no matter what the propaganda says.


Iran TV: US spy drone shot down over Iran @ 2011/12/05 16:08:49


Post by: Melissia


But someone stealing it from Iran and detonating it somewhere else, I can see that happening given the nation's corruption.


Iran TV: US spy drone shot down over Iran @ 2011/12/05 16:23:56


Post by: ShumaGorath


Huffy wrote:
ShumaGorath wrote:
Ketara wrote:
Orlanth wrote:On top of that Israel completely and blatantly ignores international arms development limitations. They have also threatened to use nukes, which is something Iran has yet to say.


When was that? Israel has never even officially admitted to possessing nukes, let alone threatening to use them on anyone.


Iran has also threatened to wipe israel off the face of the earth. Not with nukes as they "don't have them", but the sentiment is fairly clear.



Honestly, this sounds like a propaganda piece to me. Iran doesn't have something other then dumbfire anti air that can shoot down a modern stealth aircraft, and they'd have to see or find it first. Given the current drone track record the thing could of just fallen out of the sky on it's own accord though. Irans government is nothing if not opportunistic in it's effort to keep the populace xenophobic and anti western.


So I just saw this on msn, a drone did crash in Iran, US says no indication that it was shot down, but we say that we lost control of it in Afghanistan, it flew into Iran where it crashed or possibly shot down..who knows
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/45541622/ns/world_news-mideast_n_africa/t/us-no-indication-drone-iran-was-shot-down/#.TtzBd2OIm0s


We are so fething bad at keeping those things in the sky.


Iran TV: US spy drone shot down over Iran @ 2011/12/05 16:30:10


Post by: LordofHats


Melissia wrote:But someone stealing it from Iran and detonating it somewhere else, I can see that happening given the nation's corruption.


Or Iran giving it to someone. It all depends on the mood in the country. Iran has a lot of potential to cause a lot of chaos in future.


Iran TV: US spy drone shot down over Iran @ 2011/12/05 16:34:22


Post by: Orlanth


You are being hysterical.

Nukes are easily trackable, giving a nuke away is as dangerous to Iran as launching it themselves. Countries like Iran and North Korea need nukes as bargaining chips, not for trade or to build suitcase bombs.


Iran TV: US spy drone shot down over Iran @ 2011/12/05 16:38:08


Post by: Toastedandy


I was reading about this in college and found various sources from different countries saying it either crashed/malfunctioned by itself, was hacked by the Iranians or else shot down when it violated Iranian air space.

Either way, it looks like it was a power play by the Americans. They sent the spy plane into Iranian air space, and are now acting like it was Irans fault for defending their own privacy.

I don't blame the Iranians for shooting it down, I blame the Americans who sent it there in the first place. Looks to me like America and Iran are going to be going toe to toe soon enough.

With the increase in the budget for defense and being slowly turned into a police state, it looks like America knows this too.


Iran TV: US spy drone shot down over Iran @ 2011/12/05 16:44:51


Post by: LordofHats


Orlanth wrote:You are being hysterical.


I think you're making me out to be more invested than I am. I'm talking about possibilities.

Nukes are easily trackable, giving a nuke away is as dangerous to Iran as launching it themselves. Countries like Iran and North Korea need nukes as bargaining chips, not for trade or to build suitcase bombs.


There are factions within Iran who don't really care. Iran's become a safe harbor for extremist groups, and the Republican guard is a pretty extreme and corrupt group with its own internal factions. Iran's intent isn't necessarily theirs. That's another difference between NK and Iran. NK is fairly controlled. Iran's governmental power is deeply fractured among several groups.


Iran TV: US spy drone shot down over Iran @ 2011/12/05 16:47:26


Post by: Ketara


There will be conflict between either the US and Iran, or Israel and Iran within the next year. The signs are all there.


Iran TV: US spy drone shot down over Iran @ 2011/12/05 16:51:20


Post by: LordofHats


Ketara wrote:There will be conflict between either the US and Iran, or Israel and Iran within the next year. The signs are all there.


I think the most likely scenario is another Israeli strike on Iranian nuclear facilities. So far Iran has been keen to just let the air strikes and cyber attacks slide, so a war will only happen if they decide to change their mind about how they react. If a war does start, I think the chances of US intervention goes up by a lot. Not really sure how Iran would retaliate though. Retaliation airstrikes?


Iran TV: US spy drone shot down over Iran @ 2011/12/05 16:51:48


Post by: Toastedandy


Melissia wrote:But someone stealing it from Iran and detonating it somewhere else, I can see that happening given the nation's corruption.


There has been 92 cases of Nukes being lost at sea since 1945, I don't know how many were recovered. The US lists 11 nukes being lost and never recovered. Iran isn't the only place to get nukes.


Iran TV: US spy drone shot down over Iran @ 2011/12/05 16:53:47


Post by: purplefood


CT GAMER wrote:
purplefood wrote:
CT GAMER wrote:For a country that produced the self-proclaimed legend that is Mattrym you Brits sure are whinning a lot about doing what he repeatedly suggests he would love to do...


Kill everyone who owns a turban? Oh yeah good point.

Can i point out i didn't say that^^^


Iran TV: US spy drone shot down over Iran @ 2011/12/05 16:56:22


Post by: Easy E


Jihadin wrote:Didn't germany kind of staged something similiar with Poland before they invaded?


Oh my god, are you saying the Iranians are going to invade us!

Well, they should know that when the Nazi's bombed Pearl Harbor, we didn't just give up!

Wait... why are you handing me this book... what do you mean? Oh.....oh.... I see.

Carry on then.


Iran TV: US spy drone shot down over Iran @ 2011/12/05 17:02:12


Post by: Ketara


LordofHats wrote:
Ketara wrote:There will be conflict between either the US and Iran, or Israel and Iran within the next year. The signs are all there.


I think the most likely scenario is another Israeli strike on Iranian nuclear facilities. So far Iran has been keen to just let the air strikes and cyber attacks slide, so a war will only happen if they decide to change their mind about how they react. If a war does start, I think the chances of US intervention goes up by a lot. Not really sure how Iran would retaliate though. Retaliation airstrikes?


The main issue is that Iran has been preparing for an Israeli strike. The Israeli options are as follows:-

a) A simple attack from the air, with as many bombs as they can to try and wreck the facilities.
b) A troop insertion by helicopter with air cover to manually take, and wreck the facilities with explosives.

The distance is too great for an invasion, and they don't share a border, meaning the Iraqi's would have to be complicit in any assault operation. They wouldn't be capable of barring Israeli aircraft, but supply lines across their country? Not going to happen. Added to that, the Israeli's are not going to leave their borders undefended to launch the kind of operation that would be required for an invasion that far away.

So that leaves A and B. A is difficult, the Iranian facilities are dug deep, and Israeli lacks the ordnance to demolish them purely by air. B is even moreso, the Iranians won't have left these facilities undefended against a raid, and successful execution and extraction would be unlikely considering the spread out nature of the sites.

Meaning the most logical route would be for Israel to 'acquire' Bunker Buster bombs from the US, and utterly blitz the sites. Shoot down anything the Iranians put up, and just keep nailing the sites.


Iran TV: US spy drone shot down over Iran @ 2011/12/05 17:22:42


Post by: Jihadin


Isreal not going to invade Iran. Its logisticaly impossible and suicide for the Isreali state itself. The "faciliities" are built into a mountain. A surgical Strike team/s is more likely. Except the Isreali's has to get clearence to enter some euro air space. Extraction of the teams is going to be nuts

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Iran TV: US spy drone shot down over Iran @ 2011/12/05 17:23:51


Post by: purplefood


They could walk...


Iran TV: US spy drone shot down over Iran @ 2011/12/05 17:31:41


Post by: Jihadin


I see walk to the coast fora submarine pick up. Not mention an isreali in a muslim country has the same chance I have if I walk around in Afghanistan...even though we did have a couple idiots try....with a bottle of water and a couple bags of potato chips...in PT uniform....you all know the PT shirt has "ARMY" printed on it right?


Iran TV: US spy drone shot down over Iran @ 2011/12/05 17:33:25


Post by: obsidianaura


I think this is just lies from what i remember of these spy planes.

1 These things are stealth
2 They fly too high to be shot down
3 They have self-destruct systems in place

So all in all i think they're making this up. Has the US checked to see if they're missing one?


Iran TV: US spy drone shot down over Iran @ 2011/12/05 17:36:38


Post by: purplefood


Jihadin wrote:I see walk to the coast fora submarine pick up. Not mention an isreali in a muslim country has the same chance I have if I walk around in Afghanistan...even though we did have a couple idiots try....with a bottle of water and a couple bags of potato chips...in PT uniform....you all know the PT shirt has "ARMY" printed on it right?

Clearly masters of planning and doublethink.


Iran TV: US spy drone shot down over Iran @ 2011/12/05 17:38:11


Post by: Jihadin


They lack that one keyword...."think"


Iran TV: US spy drone shot down over Iran @ 2011/12/05 17:38:36


Post by: purplefood


That sounds about right...


Iran TV: US spy drone shot down over Iran @ 2011/12/05 18:16:05


Post by: LordofHats


Ketara wrote: A is difficult, the Iranian facilities are dug deep, and Israeli lacks the ordnance to demolish them purely by air.


I think that's why they've stepped up cyber attacks, but the tech ability of a lot of countries can be quite surprising. Iran's no China but they're not pushovers. I don't think airstrikes or cyber attacks are going to be as useful as they once were.

B is even moreso, the Iranians won't have left these facilities undefended against a raid, and successful execution and extraction would be unlikely considering the spread out nature of the sites.


I don't even think B is an option. To logistically difficult.

Meaning the most logical route would be for Israel to 'acquire' Bunker Buster bombs from the US, and utterly blitz the sites. Shoot down anything the Iranians put up, and just keep nailing the sites.


I don't even know if those would be enough. A lot of the sites are way deep. Bombing them is impractical. The amount of ordnance needed would be absurd. I don't think that'll stop Israel from trying per se, but still. Oddly enough, A good nuke might do the job but even Israel in its kneejerk craziest moments I don't think is that crazy.


Iran TV: US spy drone shot down over Iran @ 2011/12/05 18:32:00


Post by: AustonT


Jihadin wrote:I mention on another thread of the hand off of drones from ground control in Afghanistan to the drone operaters in the States. its like 3-4 sec lag on the hand off. Since the transmitter is similiar to our SINGARS the chances of Iran cracking into the Freq is nil.....very very nil. Time, starting freq, and how many freq a second the transmitter jumps is an idea how SINGARS work for those that are not fimiliar with it. Good bet someone did not have a good "Fill" in the states.

Erm...


Iran TV: US spy drone shot down over Iran @ 2011/12/05 18:56:22


Post by: Jihadin


Its already out on capability. No harm no foul.


Iran TV: US spy drone shot down over Iran @ 2011/12/05 18:57:46


Post by: Ketara


LordofHats wrote:
I think that's why they've stepped up cyber attacks, but the tech ability of a lot of countries can be quite surprising. Iran's no China but they're not pushovers. I don't think airstrikes or cyber attacks are going to be as useful as they once were.


Stuxnet was nasty, but at the end of the day, physical control always trumps virtual control.

I don't even think B is an option. To logistically difficult.


It's possible if planned well enough, I believe they performed a similar operation against Iraq a whiles back. The problem is that Iran has no doubt learnt from this, and will be anticipating such a move.


I don't even know if those would be enough. A lot of the sites are way deep. Bombing them is impractical. The amount of ordnance needed would be absurd. I don't think that'll stop Israel from trying per se, but still. Oddly enough, A good nuke might do the job but even Israel in its kneejerk craziest moments I don't think is that crazy.


Absurd amounts of ordnance or Iran getting the bomb? I know all too well which one I'd prefer as the Israeli premier.


Iran TV: US spy drone shot down over Iran @ 2011/12/05 19:08:58


Post by: AustonT


Not really that, just that UAV links don't frequency hop, and lack encryption in the traditional sense. It's possible to receive video downlink from them, but taking one over in the uplink requires some specific data. Its not encryption per se, but the effect is the same. It can be jammed but not overridden and if it gets confused it just comes home.
The only fills I've loaded in the birds were not link related. The links were never encrypted on purpose, there was never a need and the cons outweighed the pros for it.
Some or none of which could apply to the RQ-170, though I still doubt that's the bird that crashed unless ISAF has said so specifically.


Iran TV: US spy drone shot down over Iran @ 2011/12/05 19:14:17


Post by: Jihadin


Aaaahhhh okay. I'm tracking now. I'm going to back out of this now since we're in a shady area and delete what I posted above


Iran TV: US spy drone shot down over Iran @ 2011/12/05 19:20:00


Post by: AustonT


There was a pretty big expose on the issue at least of downlink a couple years ago.
http://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/news/2009/12/predator-drones-use-less-encryption-than-your-tv.ars
And I had the rather continual misfortune of toeing that line between TS and FOUS and open source. Needless to say it's an irritating web of blatant lies, half truths, and misdirection.


Iran TV: US spy drone shot down over Iran @ 2011/12/05 19:21:20


Post by: Huffy


obsidianaura wrote:I think this is just lies from what i remember of these spy planes.

1 These things are stealth
2 They fly too high to be shot down
3 They have self-destruct systems in place

So all in all i think they're making this up. Has the US checked to see if they're missing one?


actually yes...they confirmed a drone did go down in Iranian airspace.."lost control" of it in Afghanistan and it went into Iran


Iran TV: US spy drone shot down over Iran @ 2011/12/05 19:41:39


Post by: Vulcan


I'm not terribly worried about terrorists getting a nuke from Iran. Nuke are expensive - much more so that most people think. On the other hand, chemical weapons are reasonably cheap, much easier to conceal (no radioactivity to follow), and much easier to hide their origin (nuclear material - incuding fallout - can often be tracked via proportions of various isotopes back to the origin of the material).

And yet, Iran hasn't handed over chemical weapons to terrorists. Let's face it, it wouldn't take that many to render Israel totally barren; Israel's not that large a country. Doing it would likely wipe out the Palestinians, though, and do serious damage to Syria and Lebanon; and probably Iraq, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia as well. Iran might even take some lumps from it as well.

All in all, WMD are not a good choice for terrorists, and nukes even less so.


Iran TV: US spy drone shot down over Iran @ 2011/12/05 19:57:03


Post by: Jihadin


On their land or Europe/USA?


Iran TV: US spy drone shot down over Iran @ 2011/12/05 20:38:54


Post by: Pyriel-


I see walk to the coast fora submarine pick up. Not mention an isreali in a muslim country has the same chance I have if I walk around in Afghanistan

And here I was thinking muslims were so...tolerant.


Iran TV: US spy drone shot down over Iran @ 2011/12/05 21:05:09


Post by: Hulksmash


I'd point out that N. Korea gets away with more not just because of it's proximity to China but also because they practically hold S. Korea hostage. Any type of strike on N. Korea would not be fast enough to prevent them from destroying millions with just their ready weaponry.

As for the Iran issue as a whole I suspect that if Iran moves against Israel our chance as the US in becoming involved becomes a certainty.

Regarding the drone I have no problem with drones invading their air space and keeping tabs. We lose one it happens. Not like they don't fall out of the sky on their own anyway....


Iran TV: US spy drone shot down over Iran @ 2011/12/05 21:05:57


Post by: purplefood


Hulksmash wrote:I'd point out that N. Korea gets away with more not just because of it's proximity to China but also because they practically hold S. Korea hostage. Any type of strike on N. Korea would not be fast enough to prevent them from destroying millions with just their ready weaponry.

As for the Iran issue as a whole I suspect that if Iran moves against Israel our chance as the US in becoming involved becomes a certainty.

Regarding the drone I have no problem with drones invading their air space and keeping tabs. We lose one it happens. Not like they don't fall out of the sky on their own anyway....

If you managed to kill them all in one go...
They might notice that kind of build up though.


Iran TV: US spy drone shot down over Iran @ 2011/12/05 21:29:19


Post by: Do_I_Not_Like_That


Let's play devil's advocate for a moment here, and evaluate this article (which argues Iran should have the bomb) published in the Guardian newspaper a few weeks ago.

Imagine, for a moment, that you are an Iranian mullah. Sitting crosslegged on your Persian rug in Tehran, sipping a cup of chai, you glance up at the map of the Middle East on the wall. It is a disturbing image: your country, the Islamic Republic of Iran, is surrounded on all sides by virulent enemies and regional rivals, both nuclear and non-nuclear.

On your eastern border, the United States has 100,000 troops serving in Afghanistan. On your western border, the US has been occupying Iraq since 2003 and plans to retain a small force of military contractors and CIA operatives even after its official withdrawal next month. Pakistan, a nuclear-armed nation, is to the south-east; Turkey, America's Nato ally, to the north-west; Turkmenistan, which has acted as a refuelling base for US military transport planes since 2002, to the north-east. To the south, across the Persian Gulf, you see a cluster of US client states: Bahrain, home to the US Fifth Fleet; Qatar, host to a forward headquarters of US Central Command; Saudi Arabia, whose king has exhorted America to "attack Iran" and "cut off the head of the snake".

Then, of course, less than a thousand miles to the west, there is Israel, your mortal enemy, in possession of over a hundred nuclear warheads and with a history of pre-emptive aggression against its opponents.

The map makes it clear: Iran is, literally, encircled by the United States and its allies.

If that wasn't worrying enough, your country seems to be under (covert) attack. Several nuclear scientists have been mysteriously assassinated and, late last year, a sophisticated computer virus succeeded in shutting down roughly a fifth of Iran's nuclear centrifuges. Only last weekend, the "pioneer" of the Islamic Republic's missile programme, Major General Hassan Moghaddam, was killed – with 16 others – in a huge explosion at a Revolutionary Guards base 25 miles outside Tehran. You go online to discover western journalists reporting that the Mossad is believed to have been behind the blast.

And then you pause to remind yourself of the fundamental geopolitical lesson that you and your countrymen learned over the last decade: the US and its allies opted for war with non-nuclear Iraq, but diplomacy with nuclear-armed North Korea.

If you were our mullah in Tehran, wouldn't you want Iran to have the bomb – or at the very minimum, "nuclear latency" (that is, the capability and technology to quickly build a nuclear weapon if threatened with attack)?

Let's be clear: there is still no concrete evidence Iran is building a bomb. The latest report from the IAEA, despite its much discussed reference to "possible military dimensions to Iran's nuclear programme", also admits that its inspectors continue "to verify the non-diversion of declared nuclear material at [Iran's] nuclear facilities". The leaders of the Islamic Republic – from Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei to bombastic President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad – maintain their goal is only to develop a civilian nuclear programme, not atomic bombs.

Nonetheless, wouldn't it be rational for Iran – geographically encircled, politically isolated, feeling threatened – to want its own arsenal of nukes, for defensive and deterrent purposes? The US government's Nuclear Posture Review admits such weapons play an "essential role in deterring potential adversaries" and maintaining "strategic stability" with other nuclear powers. In 2006, the UK's Ministry of Defence claimed our own strategic nuclear deterrent was designed to "deter and prevent nuclear blackmail and acts of aggression against our vital interests that cannot be countered by other means".

Apparently, what is sauce for the Anglo-American goose is not sauce for the Iranian gander. Empathy is in short supply. As leading US nuclear policy analyst George Perkovich has observed: "The US government never has publicly and objectively assessed Iranian leaders' motivations for seeking nuclear weapons and what the US and others could do to remove those motivations." Instead, the Islamic Republic is dismissed as irrational and megalomaniacal.

But it isn't just Iran's leaders who are unwilling to back down on the nuclear issue. On Tuesday, around 1,000 Iranian students formed a human chain around the uranium conversion facility in Isfahan, chanting "Death to America" and "Death to Israel". Their protest may have been organised by the authorities but even the leaders and members of the opposition Green Movement tend to support Iran's uranium enrichment programme. According to a 2010 University of Maryland survey, 55% of Iranians back their country's pursuit of nuclear power and, remarkably, 38% support the building of a nuclear bomb.

So what is to be done? Sanctions haven't worked and won't work. Iranians refuse to compromise on what they believe to be their "inalienable" right to nuclear power under the Non-proliferation treaty. Military action, as the US defence secretary Leon Panetta admitted last week, could have "unintended consequences", including a backlash against "US forces in the region". The threat of attack will only harden the resolve for a nuclear deterrent; belligerence breeds belligerence.

The simple fact is there is no alternative to diplomacy, no matter how truculent or paranoid the leaders of Iran might seem to western eyes. If a nuclear-armed Iran is to be avoided, US politicians have to dial down their threatening rhetoric and tackle the very real and rational perception, on the streets of Tehran and Isfahan, of America and Israel as military threats to the Islamic Republic. Iranians are fearful, nervous, defensive – and, as the Middle East map shows, perhaps with good reason. As the old adage goes, just because you're paranoid, it doesn't mean they're not out to get you.



Iran TV: US spy drone shot down over Iran @ 2011/12/05 21:35:01


Post by: CT GAMER


obsidianaura wrote:I

So all in all i think they're making this up. Has the US checked to see if they're missing one?


We don't count and track dangerous weaponry, we are too busy counting our stacks of cash from the sale of them...


Iran TV: US spy drone shot down over Iran @ 2011/12/05 21:39:04


Post by: mstersmith3


There are reports out today that they do infact have a RQ-170 US stealth drone. No officail pictures have ever been released. The US military is saying one thing and the State Department an entirely differeant one. Only thing they agree on is that Iran did not shoot it down. The military is saying that it malfunctioned.


Iran TV: US spy drone shot down over Iran @ 2011/12/05 21:52:16


Post by: Samus_aran115


Oh look, another Gulf of Tonkin.


Iran TV: US spy drone shot down over Iran @ 2011/12/05 21:57:26


Post by: LordofHats


Iran's problem is that if it stopped developing nuclear technology Israel and the US and their allies would no longer see Iran as a threat. The idea that Iran needs the weapon to deter aggression is circular logic. They're developing a WMD and everyone is their enemy, so they need a WMD to defend against all these enemies.


Iran TV: US spy drone shot down over Iran @ 2011/12/06 08:26:21


Post by: dogma


LordofHats wrote:Iran's problem is that if it stopped developing nuclear technology Israel and the US and their allies would no longer see Iran as a threat. The idea that Iran needs the weapon to deter aggression is circular logic. They're developing a WMD and everyone is their enemy, so they need a WMD to defend against all these enemies.


The West had no problem with the Iranian nuclear program when the Shah was in power, so I think its safe to say that the issue isn't really that Iran is developing nuclear technology, but that the present government of Iran is not looked upon kindly by the West. In essence, it isn't the nuclear program that has turned the world against the Iranian state.


Iran TV: US spy drone shot down over Iran @ 2011/12/06 08:48:03


Post by: Kilkrazy


LordofHats wrote:Iran's problem is that if it stopped developing nuclear technology Israel and the US and their allies would no longer see Iran as a threat. The idea that Iran needs the weapon to deter aggression is circular logic. They're developing a WMD and everyone is their enemy, so they need a WMD to defend against all these enemies.


The US and Israel have been Iran's enemies for decades before they started nuclear development.


Iran TV: US spy drone shot down over Iran @ 2011/12/06 12:12:41


Post by: Frazzled


Kilkrazy wrote:
LordofHats wrote:Iran's problem is that if it stopped developing nuclear technology Israel and the US and their allies would no longer see Iran as a threat. The idea that Iran needs the weapon to deter aggression is circular logic. They're developing a WMD and everyone is their enemy, so they need a WMD to defend against all these enemies.


The US and Israel have been Iran's enemies for decades before they started nuclear development.


Israel has? Really? I missed that war.


Iran TV: US spy drone shot down over Iran @ 2011/12/06 12:20:22


Post by: Kilkrazy


Come come.

You of all people are old enough to remember this:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_hostage_crisis


Iran TV: US spy drone shot down over Iran @ 2011/12/06 12:57:45


Post by: dogma


Frazzled wrote:
Israel has? Really? I missed that war.


There was no war, but like essentially every other Western nation, Israel has been hostile to Iran since the fall of the Shah (and vice versa, of course).


Iran TV: US spy drone shot down over Iran @ 2011/12/06 13:50:00


Post by: Pacific


purplefood wrote:
Hulksmash wrote:I'd point out that N. Korea gets away with more not just because of it's proximity to China but also because they practically hold S. Korea hostage. Any type of strike on N. Korea would not be fast enough to prevent them from destroying millions with just their ready weaponry.

As for the Iran issue as a whole I suspect that if Iran moves against Israel our chance as the US in becoming involved becomes a certainty.

Regarding the drone I have no problem with drones invading their air space and keeping tabs. We lose one it happens. Not like they don't fall out of the sky on their own anyway....

If you managed to kill them all in one go...
They might notice that kind of build up though.


North Korea has the largest artillery contingent of any army in the world, within easy striking range of Seoul. Although some hawks in the US government were calling for military action against NK after Bush's 'Axis of evil' speech, pretty much every commentator on the subject has remarked that a war would not be a terribly good idea for either side, and most specifically for the Koreans who would likely see 50 years of growth and hard work destroyed and the country blasted back into the 3rd world. Now that China is finally moving its political presence on the world stage to match it's economic power, fortunately (for all of us) the prospect of war is even less likely.

LordOfHats wrote:Iran's problem is that if it stopped developing nuclear technology Israel and the US and their allies would no longer see Iran as a threat. The idea that Iran needs the weapon to deter aggression is circular logic. They're developing a WMD and everyone is their enemy, so they need a WMD to defend against all these enemies.


Like that worked for Iraq you mean?

While their is a political motivation for war, respective governments will always find a motivation for it. Look at Britain declaring war on China because a drunken British sailor had killed someone and was being held in a Chinese jail. The precedents in history are many.
For an Iran-centric perspective, I can entirely understand why they might want to develop nuclear weapons. The US has a history of never having made a military action against a nuclear-capable country, and if they think that will help protect them then the government is fulfilling the primary obligation of the state, which is to protect its citizens.

Melissa wrote:But someone stealing it from Iran and detonating it somewhere else, I can see that happening given the nation's corruption.


To be fair this has been a problem ever since the first bombs were created. The break--up of the Soviet Union increased the chance of a rogue state or organisation obtaining a nuclear device tenfold. For example, think back to the train that left Russia on its way to elsewhere (I think the Ukraine), carrying a nuclear warhead, yet never arrived. A lot of paperwork has been misplaced during the upheavals of the early 90s.

There have been several 'close calls', moments which could quite have easily lead to Nuclear obliteration or at the very least massive loss of life, which were only prevented by the way the dice fell. The problem is that while these terrible weapons exist, sooner or later our luck will run out. I think really for the sake of our survival as a species and our civilization, we will never be truly safe until the weapons are banned altogether. Sadly I can't see that happening any time soon. And ultimately it won't matter who was responsible, or why, if they are used because the chances are that none of us will be around on Dakka to talk about it afterwards anyway.


Iran TV: US spy drone shot down over Iran @ 2011/12/06 13:53:49


Post by: Huffy


Pacific wrote:

North Korea has the largest artillery contingent of any army in the world, within easy striking range of Seoul. Although some hawks in the US government were calling for military action against NK after Bush's 'Axis of evil' speech, pretty much every commentator on the subject has remarked that a war would not be a terribly good idea for either side, and most specifically for the Koreans who would likely see 50 years of growth and hard work destroyed and the country blasted back into the 3rd world. Now that China is finally moving its political presence on the world stage to match it's economic power, fortunately (for all of us) the prospect of war is even less likely.



Not to mention the amount of resources that would have to go into reconstructing N. Korea..theres a reason S. Korea doesn't want N. Korea


Iran TV: US spy drone shot down over Iran @ 2011/12/06 14:05:08


Post by: Easy E


purplefood wrote:They could walk...


Yeah, Xenophon and Alexander did it all by walking.


Iran TV: US spy drone shot down over Iran @ 2011/12/06 14:06:55


Post by: Pacific


Huffy wrote:
Pacific wrote:

North Korea has the largest artillery contingent of any army in the world, within easy striking range of Seoul. Although some hawks in the US government were calling for military action against NK after Bush's 'Axis of evil' speech, pretty much every commentator on the subject has remarked that a war would not be a terribly good idea for either side, and most specifically for the Koreans who would likely see 50 years of growth and hard work destroyed and the country blasted back into the 3rd world. Now that China is finally moving its political presence on the world stage to match it's economic power, fortunately (for all of us) the prospect of war is even less likely.



Not to mention the amount of resources that would have to go into reconstructing N. Korea..theres a reason S. Korea doesn't want N. Korea


Actually, that's not true. I lived there for a couple of years, and while there are exceptions I would say most people probably want the country to be one again. They are a single race after all.


Iran TV: US spy drone shot down over Iran @ 2011/12/06 23:21:12


Post by: Mr Hyena


The real concern is not that iran is pursuing nuclear weapons for whatever reason. (Because they are). What IS a problem is they have, quite literally, a psychopath for a leader who wants another 'Holocaust'.


Iran TV: US spy drone shot down over Iran @ 2011/12/06 23:48:01


Post by: LordofHats


dogma wrote:The West had no problem with the Iranian nuclear program when the Shah was in power, so I think its safe to say that the issue isn't really that Iran is developing nuclear technology, but that the present government of Iran is not looked upon kindly by the West. In essence, it isn't the nuclear program that has turned the world against the Iranian state.


The way nuclear weapons are looked at have changed since then. Besides, the Iranian Revolution actually ended the Shah's research program. They started it up again in the 1980's in response to Iraq's program. If we want to throw around the history ball, Iraq got invaded because of their weapons program (Persial Gulf invasion) so the idea that Iran has learned that having one will protect you falls on its face. Iran is either stupid or their smart. Which is it? I think their smart, but defending themselves isn't why they want nukes so that's a pointless argument. If they wanted to defend themselves they'd drop the program thats making them so many enemies.

The US and Israel have been Iran's enemies for decades before they started nuclear development.


No. Were we friendly? No. There was their mining of the Persian Gulf in the 1980's, and the Embassy incident, but by and large we never talked about invading Iran (no western power did) and deposing their government until their nuclear program was renewed in the late 80's. Even then, Cold War politics changed the way we dealt with nuclear proliferation and Iraq also had a development program so we were less inclined to complain about it because it seemed like Iran had a legitimate reason.

That isn't true anymore. Why does Iran want nukes? Its not to defend themselves. They want them as a point of national pride. Israel didn't care until Iran did a face turn on their stance with the Palestine conflict in the 80's. We only started caring after Iraq was disarmed following the Gulf war and Iran continued to heat up its international rhetoric (threatening to wipe out Israel) and when their weapons program became destabilizing to the region. If Iran ceased development, we'd stop caring. The US isn't going to invade them and risk Iraq 2.0, the international politics nightmare.


Iran TV: US spy drone shot down over Iran @ 2011/12/07 00:43:18


Post by: Albatross


Why do people persist in saying that Ahmedinajad threatened to wipe Israel off the map? That isn't what he said.


Iran TV: US spy drone shot down over Iran @ 2011/12/07 01:00:10


Post by: LordofHats


Albatross wrote:Why do people persist in saying that Ahmedinajad threatened to wipe Israel off the map? That isn't what he said.


Ahmedinajad has made such threats, as have numerous other Iranian officials.

And the translation controversy is a bunch of word games. Wiped out, vanish from the pages of time, etc whatever. His intention is clear and no matter how the speech gets translated it's threatening or insulting and clearly antagonistic. Couple it with his views on the Holocaust and Ahmedinajad is about as much of a joke of a president as Bush was when it comes to public speaking.



Iran TV: US spy drone shot down over Iran @ 2011/12/07 01:07:15


Post by: Albatross


LordofHats wrote:
Albatross wrote:Why do people persist in saying that Ahmedinajad threatened to wipe Israel off the map? That isn't what he said.


Ahmedinajad has made such threats, as have numerous other Iranian officials.

And the translation controversy is a bunch of word games.

Yeah, feth words. Words and their inconvenient meanings... Who needs 'em?

Seriously though, he didn't threaten to wipe Israel off the map, though he regularly agitates for a single unified Palestinian state in which people of all faiths have equal democratic representation. What a monster!


Iran TV: US spy drone shot down over Iran @ 2011/12/07 01:22:41


Post by: Jihadin


United States of America
United Kingdom
Russia
China
Isre......disregard
Iran...inprocess
Pakistan
India
North Korea...maybe (Purple)

So who do you think will launch a nuke round first...


Iran TV: US spy drone shot down over Iran @ 2011/12/07 01:25:33


Post by: purplefood


What about North Korea?
I swear they have nukes... or at least 1.


Iran TV: US spy drone shot down over Iran @ 2011/12/07 01:31:20


Post by: AustonT


Jihadin wrote:United States of America
United Kingdom
Russia
China
Isre......disregard
Iran...inprocess
Pakistan
India
North Korea...maybe (Purple)

So who do you think will launch a nuke round first...

You left out France...wait I see what you did there.


Iran TV: US spy drone shot down over Iran @ 2011/12/07 01:38:08


Post by: purplefood


If they get them then Iran, otherwise North Korea...


Iran TV: US spy drone shot down over Iran @ 2011/12/07 01:40:16


Post by: AustonT


Albatross wrote:
LordofHats wrote:
Albatross wrote:Why do people persist in saying that Ahmedinajad threatened to wipe Israel off the map? That isn't what he said.


Ahmedinajad has made such threats, as have numerous other Iranian officials.

And the translation controversy is a bunch of word games.

Yeah, feth words. Words and their inconvenient meanings... Who needs 'em?

Seriously though, he didn't threaten to wipe Israel off the map, though he regularly agitates for a single unified Palestinian state in which people of all faiths have equal democratic representation. What a monster!

Exactly HOW does he agitate for that unified Palestine, let me dig in my bag of...here it is.


"Palestine's issue cannot be resolved through talks with the enemies of the Palestinian nation. Resisting is the only way to rescue the Palestinians," Ahmadinejad told worshippers at Tehran University in a live broadcast to mark the annual Al-Quds (Jerusalem) Day in the Islamic Republic.

"The nations of the region are able to eliminate the Zionist regime from the face of the earth," said Ahmadinejad, adding the Israeli "regime has no future. Its life has come to an end."

Yep, hopefully someday he'll be a Nobel Peace laureate, like Arafat.


Iran TV: US spy drone shot down over Iran @ 2011/12/07 01:42:43


Post by: purplefood


Wait a second...
I'm fairly sure he is being sarcastic,,,


Iran TV: US spy drone shot down over Iran @ 2011/12/07 01:46:01


Post by: LordofHats


Albatross wrote:Seriously though, he didn't threaten to wipe Israel off the map, though he regularly agitates for a single unified Palestinian state in which people of all faiths have equal democratic representation. What a monster!


No he advocates for Jews to be removed from the region (EDIT: he's proposed violent removal and non-violent in different speeches) and Palestinians given control of the country. Of course Ahmadinejad also advocates that Israel's government is going to collapse (which is unlikely anytime in the near future) and that the United States is run by Zionist.

Really, if the Neo-Nazi's didn't hate "Arabs" they'd probably get along pretty well with him.


Iran TV: US spy drone shot down over Iran @ 2011/12/07 01:53:40


Post by: Do_I_Not_Like_That


More developments, including possible CIA involvement, from Sky news:

The US military has said a missing unmanned spyplane was involved in a joint CIA military operation on Afghanistan's border with Iran.

The Pentagon has admitted the RQ 170 Sentinel drone is lost somewhere in Iran.

But the US disputes Iranian claims to have shot down the state-of-the-art spy aircraft.

News of the CIA involvement is causing controversy in Washington.


Congressman Dennis Kucinich told Sky News the involvement of America's spy agency was a worrying development.

"We have to be very careful that we don't stumble into a wider war here. If we are in Iran's airpace with anything that belongs to the US, that's a provocation," he said.

The revelation coincides with speculation a covert war is being waged in Iran by America and Israel to thwart Iranian nuclear ambitions.

A series of events remain unexplained. Iranian scientists have been assassinated, in one case by a bomb strapped to his vehicle by a hit team on a motorbike.

A huge explosion at a top secret missile base in the Iranian desert appears to have killed the lead scientist on missile development.


Mr Kucinich said he is worried these events mean the region is sliding towards greater conflict.

"The events have been confirmed, so when you start to connect the dots, those dots start to spell the word war," he said.

The US has justified the use of drones in Afghan airspace as necessary to keep watch over American forces, but CIA involvement seems to confirm their use to gather intelligence beyond the border with Iran.

The Sentinel drone, thought to be 65ft in wingspan, is one of the world's most secret aircraft. Packed with surveillance electronics, it is capable of staying in the air for days.


Iran TV: US spy drone shot down over Iran @ 2011/12/07 02:36:05


Post by: Harriticus


Albatross wrote:
LordofHats wrote:
Albatross wrote:Why do people persist in saying that Ahmedinajad threatened to wipe Israel off the map? That isn't what he said.


Ahmedinajad has made such threats, as have numerous other Iranian officials.

And the translation controversy is a bunch of word games.

Yeah, feth words. Words and their inconvenient meanings... Who needs 'em?

Seriously though, he didn't threaten to wipe Israel off the map, though he regularly agitates for a single unified Palestinian state in which people of all faiths have equal democratic representation. What a monster!


Actions speak louder then words and Iran takes numerous aggressive acts against Israel which include:
A.) Arming, training, and organizing Hamas and Hezbollah to murder Israeli civilians (both of which violate international law and intl. agreements, see the Oslo Accords and UN Resolution 1701), Not to mention a warcrime as these armaments are deliberately uesd against civilians on a mass scale
B.) Striking at Jewish targets in general. Currently Iran's defense minister is wanted by INTERPOL for blowing up a Jewish center in Argentina in retaliation for Israel killing the leader of Hezbollah
C.) Directly running and overseeing Hezbollah in addition to arming and financing it. Iran has regular field commanders that work in Hezbollah and IRGC crews man Hezbollah's Zelzal missiles & C-802 coastal missiles.

Note that this constitutes pure aggression and in the case of Hezbollah, neo-imperialism on Iran's part. There is no legitimate way to justify why Iran acts the way it does towards Israel as the two were on good terms until Khomeini began antagonizing them out of religious conviction. If you claim "it's for the poor Palestinians!" then you are supportive of intervening on an issue unrelated to you without international mandate, in which case you are also supportive of the US invasion of Iraq and the whole concept of cowboy diplomacy. Not to mention you are supporting warcrimes as Hamas and its ilk really only attempt to kill Israeli civilians and little else.

And stop with Ahmadinejad being some champion of democracy. Look at what he's doing in Syria right now and try to say that again. Denying the right of the Syrian people to have their own real democracy and end the Assad dynasties racial hierarchy that has the Allawite minority on top and everyone else as second class citizens. , not to mention what he oversees in Iran itself.

And for those claiming North Korea can blast SK away into the stone age or hit Seoul or whatever, their conventional tube artillery really can't and is too far away, though Scud missiles complicate the matter. I advise reading through this to clarify:

http://www.militaryphotos.net/forums/showthread.php?162240-Bluffer-s-Guide-North-Korea-strikes!-(2009)


Iran TV: US spy drone shot down over Iran @ 2011/12/07 04:17:45


Post by: dogma


LordofHats wrote:
The way nuclear weapons are looked at have changed since then.


Not really. Nonproliferation has been a significant issue since nuclear weapons were first developed, its simply the grounds on which its justified that have changed. Ultimately we're still perfectly happy to aid nations perceived as friendly in the acquisition of nuclear technology (India), while trying to restrict it from nations perceived as either not friendly or unstable (Iran, Pakistan). Its why we wouldn't share nuclear secrets with the French or the Soviets during the Cold War.

LordofHats wrote:
Besides, the Iranian Revolution actually ended the Shah's research program. They started it up again in the 1980's in response to Iraq's program.


That's splitting hairs. Nuclear research stopped in 1979 due to the Revolution, but was promptly re-initiated following the installation of a new Iranian government in the middle of 1981. It was the same program, under new management, without foreign sources of nuclear fuel.

LordofHats wrote:
If we want to throw around the history ball, Iraq got invaded because of their weapons program (Persial Gulf invasion) so the idea that Iran has learned that having one will protect you falls on its face. Iran is either stupid or their smart. Which is it? I think their smart, but defending themselves isn't why they want nukes so that's a pointless argument. If they wanted to defend themselves they'd drop the program thats making them so many enemies.


Iraq was invaded because of a desire to institute democracy, and thereby stabilize the region according to a variant of the domino effect theory, the supposed weapons program was window dressing.

That aside, Iran is in a situation that is nothing like the one in which Iraq found itself. It actually has full control over its territory, a loyal and reasonably competent military. and is 4 times the size. Their nuclear program may be a focus of Western rhetoric at the moment, but ultimately that isn't the issue here. The issue is that the Iranian government is itself anti-Western, which effectively renders much of the West (primarily the US and Israel) anti-Iranian. The nuclear program, and more importantly any weapons that come about as a result, are an attempt to develop a deterrent against any attempt at regime change.

The weapons program is a savvy move because the alternative is, essentially, acquiescing to Western demands, which is something that would fundamentally compromise the identity of the Iranian state.


Iran TV: US spy drone shot down over Iran @ 2011/12/07 04:21:33


Post by: LordofHats


dogma wrote:That aside, Iran is in a situation that is nothing like the one in which Iraq found itself.


That's what I said but people still make the comparison.

Their nuclear program may be a focus of Western rhetoric at the moment, but ultimately that isn't the issue here. The issue is that the Iranian government is itself anti-Western, which effectively renders much of the West (primarily the US and Israel) anti-Iranian.


Plenty of governments are anti-western but no one talks about going to war with any of them.

The nuclear program, and more importantly any weapons that come about as a result, are an attempt to develop a deterrent against any attempt at regime change.


I'm sure that's what Iran thinks but it's drawing unnecessary aggression. Iran would get no more notice than anyone else save for their weapons program.

The weapons program is a savvy move because the alternative is, essentially, acquiescing to Western demands, which is something that would fundamentally compromise the identity of the Iranian state.


We don't bully around every anti-western state in the world. Why is Iran different?


Iran TV: US spy drone shot down over Iran @ 2011/12/07 04:28:17


Post by: dogma


LordofHats wrote:
And the translation controversy is a bunch of word games. Wiped out, vanish from the pages of time, etc whatever. His intention is clear and no matter how the speech gets translated it's threatening or insulting and clearly antagonistic.


There's a big difference between being threatening, and being insulting. And a bigger difference between being merely antagonistic, and explicitly calling for genocide. No one is going to argue that Ahmadinejad is hostile towards Israel, the question is whether or not that hostility extends to an express military threat, which is what the translation controversy is about.


Automatically Appended Next Post:
LordofHats wrote:
Plenty of governments are anti-western but no one talks about going to war with any of them.


Well, except the Syrians, the Sudanese, the Cubans, the North Koreans, the Yemeni, the Libyans, and the Somalians.

LordofHats wrote:
I'm sure that's what Iran thinks but it's drawing unnecessary aggression. Iran would get no more notice than anyone else save for their weapons program.


I sincerely doubt that their material position would change. The majority of sanctions in place against Iran are the result of their classification as a state sponsor of terrorism.

LordofHats wrote:
We don't bully around every anti-western state in the world. Why is Iran different?


What explicitly anti-Western nations do we not adopt a position of material opposition to? Venezuela is the only one I can think of.


Iran TV: US spy drone shot down over Iran @ 2011/12/07 04:55:49


Post by: Vulcan


There is one, and only one, reason the western nations are so proactively anti-Iranian. Oil.

Look at the map. Where do we get a hefty percentage of our oil? The Persian Gulf. PERSIAN. It was Persia for a thousand years, before it got split into Iran and Iraq. Now, where is Iran? Dominating the whole northern shore of the Persian Gulf. In position at the entrance to the Persian Gulf. With long-range anti-ship missiles bought from the Russians. With a pretty sizable air force from the same source.

They also have by far and away the most populous nation on the gulf. If America and the western powers weren't in the game, Iran probably wouldn't have too much trouble sweeping through the rest of the Gulf States.

So, here is this nation that isn't particularly fond of us, sitting adjacent to the main thoroughfare for the fuel that runs the western world, with the weapons and forces to make a credible attempt at cutting that fuel off. At the very LEAST, they could make oil so expensive it would crash EVERY western economy.

Personally, I think it's the best possible reason to develop alternate fuel sources but what the heck do I know?


Iran TV: US spy drone shot down over Iran @ 2011/12/07 05:27:37


Post by: LordofHats


dogma wrote:Well, except the Syrians, the Sudanese, the Cubans, the North Koreans, the Yemeni, the Libyans, and the Somalians.


No one actual considers going to war with Syria, even now. Or Sudan. We didn't even get involved during the Darfur genocide. We haven't gone to war with Yemen, and even with all the piracy we aren't at war with Somalia (then again one has to wonder if one can be at war with a non-state). Being Anti-western just means no one in the West likes you which is different from wanting to go to war with you.

LordofHats wrote:What explicitly anti-Western nations do we not adopt a position of material opposition to? Venezuela is the only one I can think of.


Opposition is different from actually talking about war. Look at Zimbabwae. Probably one of the vilest governments on the planet. Anti-western, poised for genocide, and it never gets a mention.


Iran TV: US spy drone shot down over Iran @ 2011/12/07 05:43:16


Post by: Harriticus


Zimbabwe has the support of the African Union/South Africa, who deflects any criticism of Mugabe by the West with accusations of Neo-Imperialism. It's the same game the AU played with Gadaffi until finally the Arab League turned on him.

And Vulcan, Iran actually doesn't have any Russian anti-ship missiles. Right now their primary anti-ship missiles are reverse-engineered Chinese C-802's, Silkworms, and C-701's.


Iran TV: US spy drone shot down over Iran @ 2011/12/07 11:25:15


Post by: Pyriel-


Actually, that's not true. I lived there for a couple of years, and while there are exceptions I would say most people probably want the country to be one again. They are a single race after all.

Yeah they want unity but they sure as hell want someone else to pay for it!

Iraq was invaded because of a desire to institute democracy, and thereby stabilize the region

Nope.
It´s called oil dollar. Iraq was invaded because Hussein wanted to start selling his oil in another currency then the dollar, something that would be an utter disaster for the US.

Guess what iran wants to do now?
Apparently monkeyboy didnt get the memo about what happens when you try to substitute the dollar as the worlds oil currency for the euro or yen.


Iran TV: US spy drone shot down over Iran @ 2011/12/07 11:37:00


Post by: Jihadin


Interesting

http://www.eia.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/company_level_imports/current/import.html



Crude Oil Imports (Top 15 Countries)
(Thousand Barrels per Day)
Country Sep-11 Aug-11 YTD 2011 Sep-10 YTD 2010

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CANADA 2,324 2,240 2,157 1,937 1,971

SAUDI ARABIA 1,465 1,075 1,180 1,082 1,072

MEXICO 1,099 1,150 1,113 1,108 1,132

VENEZUELA 759 806 893 919 928

NIGERIA 529 854 826 1,107 1,018

COLOMBIA 510 365 364 308 328

IRAQ 403 637 473 422 464

ECUADOR 299 303 203 229 215

ANGOLA 283 311 323 404 413

RUSSIA 275 252 246 286 295

BRAZIL 163 213 225 177 270

KUWAIT 145 165 164 172 204

ALGERIA 139 140 204 366 337

CHAD 74 32 54 30 14

OMAN 72 52 39 0 0

Total Imports of Petroleum (Top 15 Countries)
(Thousand Barrels per Day)
Country Sep-11 Aug-11 YTD 2011 Sep-10 YTD 2010

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CANADA 2,829 2,637 2,670 2,479 2,537

SAUDI ARABIA 1,479 1,075 1,187 1,093 1,086

MEXICO 1,192 1,185 1,218 1,254 1,260

VENEZUELA 806 906 979 1,008 1,007

RUSSIA 592 585 609 648 624

NIGERIA 580 892 876 1,174 1,053

COLOMBIA 529 395 395 363 360

IRAQ 404 637 473 422 464

ECUADOR 305 309 205 229 217

ANGOLA 304 331 335 417 422

ALGERIA 291 298 396 543 512

VIRGIN ISLANDS 189 185 189 302 261

BRAZIL 188 228 240 181 289

ARUBA 149 81 79 0 0

KUWAIT 145 165 165 172 206


Iran TV: US spy drone shot down over Iran @ 2011/12/07 11:54:52


Post by: Huffy


Jihadin wrote:Interesting

http://www.eia.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/company_level_imports/current/import.html



Crude Oil Imports (Top 15 Countries)
(Thousand Barrels per Day)
Country Sep-11 Aug-11 YTD 2011 Sep-10 YTD 2010

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CANADA 2,324 2,240 2,157 1,937 1,971

SAUDI ARABIA 1,465 1,075 1,180 1,082 1,072

MEXICO 1,099 1,150 1,113 1,108 1,132

VENEZUELA 759 806 893 919 928

NIGERIA 529 854 826 1,107 1,018

COLOMBIA 510 365 364 308 328

IRAQ 403 637 473 422 464

ECUADOR 299 303 203 229 215

ANGOLA 283 311 323 404 413

RUSSIA 275 252 246 286 295

BRAZIL 163 213 225 177 270

KUWAIT 145 165 164 172 204

ALGERIA 139 140 204 366 337

CHAD 74 32 54 30 14

OMAN 72 52 39 0 0

Total Imports of Petroleum (Top 15 Countries)
(Thousand Barrels per Day)
Country Sep-11 Aug-11 YTD 2011 Sep-10 YTD 2010

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CANADA 2,829 2,637 2,670 2,479 2,537

SAUDI ARABIA 1,479 1,075 1,187 1,093 1,086

MEXICO 1,192 1,185 1,218 1,254 1,260

VENEZUELA 806 906 979 1,008 1,007

RUSSIA 592 585 609 648 624

NIGERIA 580 892 876 1,174 1,053

COLOMBIA 529 395 395 363 360

IRAQ 404 637 473 422 464

ECUADOR 305 309 205 229 217

ANGOLA 304 331 335 417 422

ALGERIA 291 298 396 543 512

VIRGIN ISLANDS 189 185 189 302 261

BRAZIL 188 228 240 181 289

ARUBA 149 81 79 0 0

KUWAIT 145 165 165 172 206


Why how funny...we don't import oil from Iran..


Iran TV: US spy drone shot down over Iran @ 2011/12/07 13:13:44


Post by: dogma


LordofHats wrote:
No one actual considers going to war with Syria, even now. Or Sudan. We didn't even get involved during the Darfur genocide. We haven't gone to war with Yemen, and even with all the piracy we aren't at war with Somalia (then again one has to wonder if one can be at war with a non-state). Being Anti-western just means no one in the West likes you which is different from wanting to go to war with you.


There are political figures that have spoken of militarily intervening in all of those nations with roughly the same degree of severity as regards Iran. Hell, there were significant airstrikes in the Sudan under Clinton, in Yemen under Bush and Obama, in Syria under Bush, and in Somalia under Obama.

LordofHats wrote:
Opposition is different from actually talking about war. Look at Zimbabwae. Probably one of the vilest governments on the planet. Anti-western, poised for genocide, and it never gets a mention.


You keep using the word war, and I'm not sure what you mean. Are you talking about military strikes, or full-scale invasion? I've heard plenty of people in position of authority discuss the former, but really only heard the latter from news services in the form of sensationalist headlines.

As for Zimbabwe, it is neither a significant regional power, nor a threat to US interests, both of which Iran is with or without its nuclear program.


Iran TV: US spy drone shot down over Iran @ 2011/12/07 17:15:49


Post by: Tyyr


Huffy wrote:Why how funny...we don't import oil from Iran..

I know right? I seriously doubt most people realize we get 60% of our oil and petroleum imports from the Americas.

Iraq's contribution: 5%
Iran's: 0%


Iran TV: US spy drone shot down over Iran @ 2011/12/07 21:11:32


Post by: Vulcan


No, we don't import oil from Iran. They won't sell it to us.

Sure, 60% of our oil comes from the Americas. That is not to say that the contributions from Gulf States is negligible. Saudi Arabia, for example is second on the list. Iraq, Kuwait, and Oman also contribute a good chunk. Want to guess what happens to oil prices if those sources are cut off by Iran closing the Persian Gulf? Want to guess what happens to the American economy if that happens?


Iran TV: US spy drone shot down over Iran @ 2011/12/07 21:13:59


Post by: LordofHats


The issue is less where our oil comes from and more the price of oil. Anything that happens in Iran will certainly increase oil prices.

You keep using the word war, and I'm not sure what you mean.


I draw a distinction between the rhetoric and a legitimate consideration of action.


Iran TV: US spy drone shot down over Iran @ 2011/12/07 21:20:49


Post by: Jihadin


Want to guess what happens to oil prices if those sources are cut off by Iran closing the Persian Gulf? Want to guess what happens to the American economy if that happens?


It hurt a little bit but not enough to matter. Were you still able to get to work six month after Katrina? Iran though be missing their Navy and quite a few of the land base force near their coast. There are other countries besides ours that will be effected to.


Iran TV: US spy drone shot down over Iran @ 2011/12/08 17:14:56


Post by: Vulcan


Given the current weakness of our economy, even a 'little bit' of hurt is going to be quite painful. Given the state of several other economies dependant on oil, it could be devastating.


Iran TV: US spy drone shot down over Iran @ 2011/12/08 17:16:52


Post by: Huffy


They release a video..unsure of how accurate it is
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-16098562
It should be an interesting situation, but honestly I think it's a bunch of saber rattling, Iran will likely get the bomb and nothing major will happen


Iran TV: US spy drone shot down over Iran @ 2011/12/08 17:22:14


Post by: Jihadin


Well....guess our R&D dept. have job security for quite a long time.


Iran TV: US spy drone shot down over Iran @ 2011/12/08 17:47:11


Post by: dogma


LordofHats wrote:
I draw a distinction between the rhetoric and a legitimate consideration of action.


Right, but that's not really what I'm asking. When you say "war" do you mean any military action, or some formally declared military action? Is an airstrike war, or does it have to be a series of airstrikes, or an invasion?

The point being, I've heard lots of people talk about a series of airstrikes against Iran, which I'm not sure I would consider war, but no one talk about a ground invasion, which I would consider war.


Iran TV: US spy drone shot down over Iran @ 2011/12/08 20:23:12


Post by: Tyyr


That is not to say that the contributions from Gulf States is negligible. Saudi Arabia, for example is second on the list. Iraq, Kuwait, and Oman also contribute a good chunk. Want to guess what happens to oil prices if those sources are cut off by Iran closing the Persian Gulf? Want to guess what happens to the American economy if that happens?

No, my point is that the idea that we invaded Iraq for oil is frankly stupid. The amount to what can scientifically be refered to as "dick" in the grand scheme of our oil consumption. If we were going to steam roll someone just for oil there are plenty of places a lot closer with a lot more oil we can bomb. Prettier too.

What happens if Iran closes the Persian Gulf? Iran ceases to exist as a functioning nation. If Iran really tried to put the pinch on the west by "closing" the gulf how long would it take for the west to stage a freedom of navigation exercise that included leveling every SSM launcher and small boat ramp on Iran's coast? Not very long. Iran can't and won't bother trying to close the gulf. They know they can't and that doing so would just give us a reason to open fire.


Iran TV: US spy drone shot down over Iran @ 2011/12/08 22:15:10


Post by: Huffy


Tyyr wrote:
That is not to say that the contributions from Gulf States is negligible. Saudi Arabia, for example is second on the list. Iraq, Kuwait, and Oman also contribute a good chunk. Want to guess what happens to oil prices if those sources are cut off by Iran closing the Persian Gulf? Want to guess what happens to the American economy if that happens?

No, my point is that the idea that we invaded Iraq for oil is frankly stupid. The amount to what can scientifically be refered to as "dick" in the grand scheme of our oil consumption. If we were going to steam roll someone just for oil there are plenty of places a lot closer with a lot more oil we can bomb. Prettier too.

What happens if Iran closes the Persian Gulf? Iran ceases to exist as a functioning nation. If Iran really tried to put the pinch on the west by "closing" the gulf how long would it take for the west to stage a freedom of navigation exercise that included leveling every SSM launcher and small boat ramp on Iran's coast? Not very long. Iran can't and won't bother trying to close the gulf. They know they can't and that doing so would just give us a reason to open fire.


Well the Persian Gulf does account 40% of oil..and if there's war no one gonna be willing to risk ships....


Iran TV: US spy drone shot down over Iran @ 2011/12/08 22:54:11


Post by: LordofHats


dogma wrote:The point being, I've heard lots of people talk about a series of airstrikes against Iran, which I'm not sure I would consider war, but no one talk about a ground invasion, which I would consider war.


I would consider any large scale military action to count (declared or undeclared). What I'm mostly thinking of is the likely hood of it happening. Right now, I look at the situation and I see a very fair chance that something is going to happen. A large scale operation? Maybe not, but Iran is one of the only countries in the world where people talk about large scale actions against it.

For Example: Bosnia counts to me, but not Libya. Bosnia involved a large scale mobilization of numerous countries over a long period of time, while operations in Libya were brief and ended quickly after they began devolving into a no-fly zone enforcement operation.


Iran TV: US spy drone shot down over Iran @ 2011/12/09 01:13:34


Post by: Ketara


dogma wrote:
LordofHats wrote:
I draw a distinction between the rhetoric and a legitimate consideration of action.


Right, but that's not really what I'm asking. When you say "war" do you mean any military action, or some formally declared military action?


People have been asking for a definition of that one for millennia, from Cicero to Clausewitz. Good luck getting a definitive answer to it off Dakka.


Iran TV: US spy drone shot down over Iran @ 2011/12/09 01:25:18


Post by: xxmatt85


If there is a war, we would just end up rolling over them, like we did to Iraq, that is if they haven't arm any ICBM's already.


Iran TV: US spy drone shot down over Iran @ 2011/12/09 01:42:37


Post by: Pacific


I'm not so sure, Iran is a much tougher prospect than Iraq ever was. It is a much larger country than Iraq, whose army had been smashed ten years earlier. And I would hazard that their soldiers (and perhaps people) would be a great deal more fanatical in terms of defending the state, there isn't the same level of sectarian divide within Iran that the US would be able to exploit. I think undoubtedly the US and allies would ultimately triumph, but I would be very surprised if the cost of men and lives was lower than that experienced in Iraq. Perhaps someone could comment whether or not the US has the capability for this right now as well, with regard to troops being deployed in the middle east for more than ten years now? Certainly I would question whether the UK has the ability to be involved, other than by offering logistical and token support (which would only help to further ossify the opinion of muslims worldwide against the UK government, and confirm that Cameron has followed on from Blaire as the Whitehouse's favourite poodle).

On another point, you could argue that the 'war' has already started in some form: There have been assassinations of scientists, cyber attacks, an Iranian general was killed, several 'accidental' explosions in airports, military bases and the like. I wouldn't be surprised at all if this is the work of Mossad and Israel, but given the state of affairs it is probable that the US (and UK/France?) are involved as well, or at least are aware of what is going on.

Also, the 'smoking gun' stories in the press of Iran's belligerence and the planned assassination of the Saudi ambassador. Remember that things took a very similar turn prior to the invasion of Iraq ten years ago, I think that the ground work is being laid and the pretext of "they did...blah blah blah" prior to the persian gulf filling with aircraft carriers again.

I think the one factor perhaps reducing the likelihood of war (at least for the next 6 or 7 years or so) is the fact that Obama and the Democrats are in office. Unless there is a new 'Pearl Harbor', and something happens that cannot possibly be ignored, then any kind of attack at the moment by the US and its allies would be seen as a flagrant and unwarranted aggression.



Iran TV: US spy drone shot down over Iran @ 2011/12/09 01:58:18


Post by: LordofHats


Ketara wrote:
dogma wrote:
LordofHats wrote:
I draw a distinction between the rhetoric and a legitimate consideration of action.


Right, but that's not really what I'm asking. When you say "war" do you mean any military action, or some formally declared military action?


People have been asking for a definition of that one for millennia, from Cicero to Clausewitz. Good luck getting a definitive answer to it off Dakka.


In the sense dogma is asking no as I know what I mean and it's either valid or invalid to some degree.

Clausewitz is the best btw "War is the continuation of politics through other means. An act of force to compel our enemy to do our will."

Just war, ethical war, and can all war be avoided are the tricky questions


Iran TV: US spy drone shot down over Iran @ 2011/12/09 02:45:02


Post by: Ketara


LordofHats wrote:

Clausewitz is the best btw "War is the continuation of politics through other means. An act of force to compel our enemy to do our will."


What of the logical Leninist extension of Clausewitzian doctrine though?


Iran TV: US spy drone shot down over Iran @ 2011/12/09 03:47:53


Post by: King Pariah


Funny thing about oil... Green River Basin is the LARGEST oil reserve in the world, yeah, that's right, the US has the largest natural oil reserve in the world. Not to mention the bunch we have up in Alaska. Why the hell don't we drill our own f***ing oil? Oh yeah, it'd take ten years to get plants up and running to start processing the oil shale. WELL GET TO WORK ALREADY!

Anyway with Iran, I have a feeling that for the time being it's going to be our usual shouting match that gets us nowhere but keeps the tensions running a bit high.


Iran TV: US spy drone shot down over Iran @ 2011/12/09 03:59:00


Post by: Orlanth


King Pariah wrote:Funny thing about oil... Green River Basin is the LARGEST oil reserve in the world, yeah, that's right, the US has the largest natural oil reserve in the world. Not to mention the bunch we have up in Alaska. Why the hell don't we drill our own f***ing oil? Oh yeah, it'd take ten years to get plants up and running to start processing the oil shale. WELL GET TO WORK ALREADY!

Anyway with Iran, I have a feeling that for the time being it's going to be our usual shouting match that gets us nowhere but keeps the tensions running a bit high.


Because the US wants everyone elses oil at a cheap rate now, then the remaining oil is theirs. Its a smart move, its also the reason why Saudi has capped half its wells (and gives reserve figures far lower than they actually are).

Smarter opil countries try and cap their reserves, the exceptions are shared oil basins like the North Sea, with everyone drinking from the same cup saving some for later is the same as doing without.


Iran TV: US spy drone shot down over Iran @ 2011/12/09 10:35:18


Post by: dogma


Ketara wrote:
People have been asking for a definition of that one for millennia, from Cicero to Clausewitz. Good luck getting a definitive answer to it off Dakka.


I'm not asking for an all-encompassing definition of "war", I'm just asking for clarification regarding LordofHats usage because, from where I sit, no one is talking about war with Iran. Air strikes certainly, but not something on the scale of even Bosnia.


Iran TV: US spy drone shot down over Iran @ 2011/12/09 14:25:22


Post by: AustonT


They might have it, they might not. The "pristine" aircraft shown on TV may be a model...and may not
http://abcnews.go.com/m/story?id=15115781
Fulfills my "pics or it never happened" demand.


Iran TV: US spy drone shot down over Iran @ 2011/12/09 14:32:11


Post by: Jihadin


Notice none of the landing gear was shown. If it was me I be videoing that aircraft from all angles. Including all the avionic bays and maintenance compartments. I even throw up the serial numbers of components to even drive it home. Still though...why no thermite grenades for self destruct?


Iran TV: US spy drone shot down over Iran @ 2011/12/09 14:32:33


Post by: dogma


King Pariah wrote:Funny thing about oil... Green River Basin is the LARGEST oil reserve in the world, yeah, that's right, the US has the largest natural oil reserve in the world. Not to mention the bunch we have up in Alaska. Why the hell don't we drill our own f***ing oil? Oh yeah, it'd take ten years to get plants up and running to start processing the oil shale. WELL GET TO WORK ALREADY!


Just having oil isn't enough, it has to be cheap enough to extract given present market prices in order to make that extraction viable.


Iran TV: US spy drone shot down over Iran @ 2011/12/09 14:36:56


Post by: Jihadin


And when it doesn't become viable....I be dead and gone by then


Iran TV: US spy drone shot down over Iran @ 2011/12/09 15:10:42


Post by: Huffy



Iran would be much much harder than Iraq, because Iranians actually support their government and are willing to fight for it., why no thermite? maybe the value of the drone is greater than the cost of destroying it, after all even having the drone doesn't mean you'll figure out how it works