Looks like Failcast and the Great Southern Hemisphere Boycott hasn't hurt Gee-Dub not hardly at all

Games Workshop Group PLC

DIVIDEND AND TRADING UPDATE


For immediate release 17 May 2012

Games Workshop Group PLC announces that the Board has today declared a dividend of 16 pence per share. This will be paid on 26 June 2012 for shareholders on the register at 25 May 2012.

Games Workshop further announces that pre-tax profits in respect of the year to 3 June 2012 are likely to be ahead of current market expectations.

http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:GAW.L&display=news&action=article&articleid=8588893

Of course that is just "profits". What has happened to turnover and volume sales, which is far more important for the longer term output has yet to be revealed...

Seeing as how their sales have dropped yet they've declared a profit in the past. Usually not meant to work that way...

Now that they've gotten away with all they did over the past year they're going to feel bold enough to dissolve the galactic senate. The Regional managers will now have direct control over their territories. Fear will keep the local customers in line.

Remember they save alot of money using Fesin than Metal
And they jacked up all prices
And they came out with the paint

I'm not sure the paints will count into it yet.


Automatically Appended Next Post:
Looking at it again it says "pre-tax" profits and mentions the usual copy pasted "exceeding market expectation" as it always does. We'll probably need something more detailed to discuss it properly and to determine just how well they actually went.

Isn't that dividend down compared to the previous one? And market expectations would be anything from 0% upwards growth in this economic climate.

Oakenshield wrote:Now that they've gotten away with all they did over the past year they're going to feel bold enough to dissolve the galactic senate. The Regional managers will now have direct control over their territories. Fear will keep the local customers in line.

Don't be so proud of this oligarchical terror they've constructed. The ability to control the HHHobby is insignificant next to the power of the its customer base.

I can imagine Kirby going "UNLIMITED POWAAH" though while zapping some bean counter that may have suggested against that move.

Will be interesting to see if there has been a big from in production costs when the full report comes out.

Looks like business as usual for GW. Borrow money to give out dividends. Consider the whine thread on warseer to be 'market expectations' and you're exceeding them.

1.) GW's main economic purpose is to generate hundred thousands of income for its board. So they pay dividends even when they have to loan the money.
2.) It is not surprising that Tom Kirby voted to get 310.000 GBP extra.
3.) Good thing that every GW store and Indy had to buy a completely new range of 145 colours (6 each -> 1300 € per store extra plus 4 new paint sets and a compendium) in April. Subtract this and you see the real numbers.

Osbad wrote:Looks like Failcast and the Great Southern Hemisphere Boycott hasn't hurt Gee-Dub not hardly at all

1. Declaring a dividend does not mean your company is strong. In the case of Games Workshop, whose best product lines (their plastics) have a high development cost and thus require more floating capital, it is just as likely to be a sign of weakness. It means that you've run out of new products to invest in before you've run out of capital.

2. "Likely to be ahead of current market expectations" is a phrase that is empty of meaning. It's unfalsifiable PR speak, and that's exactly why it is used.

Kroothawk wrote:
3.) Good thing that every GW store and Indy had to buy a completely new range of 145 colours (6 each -> 1300 € per store extra plus 4 new paint sets and a compendium) in April.

Just to clarify, Indies were in no way obligated to do this, nor were they forced to buy into the entire range at once.

Oakenshield wrote:Now that they've gotten away with all they did over the past year they're going to feel bold enough to dissolve the galactic senate. The Regional managers will now have direct control over their territories. Fear will keep the local customers in line.

Excellent

This is the same as its' been for years- likely less sales, but higher profits, and more dividends.

They only have to make it to The Hobbit, after all- that's going to give them a huge sales boost. As will 6th edition 40k, likely. Possibly temporary boosts, the way they handle things, but it will still look good on the report.

AlexHolker wrote:. "Likely to be ahead of current market expectations" is a phrase that is empty of meaning. It's unfalsifiable PR speak, and that's exactly why it is used.

All it tells you is that they have done better than they would have done had they posted the phrase "broadly in line with expectations", which is what they have used at the pre-release stage in previous years. It tells you little, but not nothing.

However, as I and others have said earlier, profit, and dividends are good news in that they mean that the company isn't going down the pan tomorrow. However, for us as fans of the product, what really matters is turnover - and more specifically volume sales - which indicates the level of popularity of their product. For the last 8 years, that measure has been declining in real terms, and there is nothing to say at this stage whether this decline has halted or not yet. All we *can* say is that the issues the company have faced this year have not been so severe as to make them unprofitable.

Why is everyone so annoyed that a business is making money?

I'd rather they made money than folded, i bet 95% of the the GW hating moaning bitches would cry if they shut down.

AlexHolker wrote:2. "Likely to be ahead of current market expectations" is a phrase that is empty of meaning. It's unfalsifiable PR speak, and that's exactly why it is used.

GW's fiscal year ends at the end of May. This statement is a projection based on current performance as a "preview." Most companies release tidbits like this ahead of their earnings release.


That being said, GW's stock price has been increasing since the beginning of the year. Investors don't seem to be worried about the future of GW.

Ajroo wrote:Why is everyone so annoyed that a business is making money?

I'd rather they made money than folded, i bet 95% of the the GW hating moaning bitches would cry if they shut down.

I hate it when people reply and quote and then just write "this" but... this.

But the sound of all the wailing would be like music to my years and all the tears would give me nourishment for decades to come!

Ajroo wrote:Why is everyone so annoyed that a business is making money?

I'd rather they made money than folded, i bet 95% of the the GW hating moaning bitches would cry if they shut down.

I don't think it's that. More likely is that people liking being proved right. The common criticisms in all Wacky Workshop (GW) debate threads (ignoring White Knights and Doom Mongers) boil down to GW making very poor business decisions. Every year these are vindicated somewhat when sales show another decline. Essentially, its the internets way of saying "I told you so!"

Ajroo wrote:Why is everyone so annoyed that a business is making money?

I'd rather they made money than folded, i bet 95% of the the GW hating moaning bitches would cry if they shut down.

I don't think anyone is annoyed that a business is making money.

I do see a fair few people laughing at a business that isn't making much money, and is trying to mask that with vague business-speak and corporate tactics.

Ajroo wrote:Why is everyone so annoyed that a business is making money?
I'd rather they made money than folded, i bet 95% of the the GW hating moaning bitches would cry if they shut down.

1.) Total revenue is flat or declining for years (not considering the 10% price hike per year, so total sales decline massively).
2.) All net profit is given to the shareholders, a.o. Tom Kirby. Often more than total net profit, sometimes they loan money to pay shareholders. So the company is drained each year.
3.) If all management decisions would be made random, GW's total renevue would easily increase 10% per year without the need for price hikes. A decent manager could achieve even more.

Oakenshield wrote:Now that they've gotten away with all they did over the past year they're going to feel bold enough to dissolve the galactic senate. The Regional managers will now have direct control over their territories. Fear will keep the local customers in line.

Best dakka post in a while. You win the thread.

As for people being upset they're "making money", while I doubt most here want to see GW collapse, if their profits became effected they would be forced to seriously look at their policies and rectify them.

Kroothawk wrote:
3.) If all management decisions would be made random, GW's total renevue would easily increase 10% per year without the need for price hikes. A decent manager could achieve even more.

With your brilliant financial mind, why aren't you a billionaire already then and buy GW?

DarknessEternal wrote:
With your brilliant financial mind, why aren't you a billionaire already then and buy GW?

Ahhh Sarcasm.

Bringing you the internet since 1982.

Iranna.

Kroothawk wrote:
1.) Total revenue is flat or declining for years (not considering the 10% price hike per year, so total sales decline massively).

Looking at their annual reports....yes, revenue has not been steadily growing. However, In 2006/2007, GW downsized, and spent a lot on automated tooling equipment and software. This reduced their operating costs and has allowed them to increase profit with nearly flat revenue. Royalties have also been a boost to profit (especially this year with Space Marine).

The annual reports also show sales over time (though I don't believe they are adjusted for inflation). You can see that sales decreased from 2004-2007, but since then have been increasing.

For the first half of FY2012, GW has done very well compared to the same period last year, and are on track for a very good year.

Kroothawk wrote:2.) All net profit is given to the shareholders, a.o. Tom Kirby. Often more than total net profit, sometimes they loan money to pay shareholders. So the company is drained each year.

Tom Kirby owns only 6.7% of GW. Furthermore, it's the board's policy (stated multiple times in the annual reports) to pay out all surplus cash in the form of dividends. This is not an uncommon practice, as idle cash does nothing for the company. Given that they just overhauled their manufacturing facility in 2007, what else should they spend their cash on?

DarknessEternal wrote:

Kroothawk wrote:
3.) If all management decisions would be made random, GW's total renevue would easily increase 10% per year without the need for price hikes. A decent manager could achieve even more.

With your brilliant financial mind, why aren't you a billionaire already then and buy GW?

Why the need to make it personal?

As for people being upset they're "making money", while I doubt most here want to see GW collapse, if their profits became effected they would be forced to seriously look at their policies and rectify them.

This is it exactly. Some acknowledgement that they are not the sole miniature game producer in market for 1 might make them sort out Finecast, or perhaps even go a year without a price rise. Perhaps some new and exciting games, and put some more money into games development and things like that.

@elrabin GW is not succeeding despite falling revenue. It is failing because it is causing falling revenue.

If you adjust to take into account price rises, sales are falling for their retail chain.

Cost cutting, forgeworld and licensing revenue keep them profitable. Virtually 100% of the profit paid as dividend last time round came from licensing.

This is not a sustainable business model.

They could possibly use the surplus cash to hire some QA folks for Finecast management?

@All: Please remember that personal attacks are against the rules. Polite discourse is a requirement for participation on this site. Thanks.

lord_blackfang wrote:

Kroothawk wrote:
3.) Good thing that every GW store and Indy had to buy a completely new range of 145 colours (6 each -> 1300 € per store extra plus 4 new paint sets and a compendium) in April.

Just to clarify, Indies were in no way obligated to do this, nor were they forced to buy into the entire range at once.

Just to calrify, I know that here in the US the indy stockists had to purchase new rack and new paints in order to remain stockists. Failure to purchase their new rack and paints would result in loss of stockist status. Sure, they had the option not to buy it, but it meant losing what little prize support GW offered them for events, as well as free shipping on orders and the lower wholesale costs. And to boot, they were only allowed to send back $200 worth of the old paint for credit...

That's incredibly douchebag even by GW standards

UNCLEBADTOUCH wrote:That's incredibly douchebag even by GW standards

Just you wait.. the annual may/june price "adjustment" is right around the corner!

I honestly don't care if a company is making money (actually, I would hope that they are). What bothers me is the annual price increase. I took a two year break and was floored when I saw the current price for a battlewagon. $66 USD? I remember them being something like $42 about 3 years ago. There is no way these price increases reflect inflation. If they want to sell more, they shouldn't price people out of the hobby. From what I gather we even have it good here in the states, places like Australia have seen even more ridiculous numbers.

UNCLEBADTOUCH wrote:@elrabin GW is not succeeding despite falling revenue. It is failing because it is causing falling revenue.

If you adjust to take into account price rises, sales are falling for their retail chain.

As far as whether or not GW succeeds, does it really matter how their retail chain performs? GW is a manufacturer (and distributor) first, and a retailer second. Overall, sales revenue is up (even though volume may be lower).

GW uses their retail stores as a way to build their brand, advertise their products, and to separate themselves from other miniatures manufacturers. As long as that store gets more people into "the hobby," or encourages hobbyists to buy more GW products, it is doing its job.

UNCLEBADTOUCH wrote:Cost cutting, forgeworld and licensing revenue keep them profitable. Virtually 100% of the profit paid as dividend last time round came from licensing.

This is not a sustainable business model.

Why not?

First half of FY2012, GW paid out ~5.5m in dividends. They invested 4.3m on property, equipment, and product development. They are still sitting on 16m in cash, which is ~1.5m less than what they started with at the end of FY2011. Investors didn't fund GW with the intention of never seeing a return. GW is a mature, established company that invests heavily into itself for product development and manufacturing/distribution capability. How is this not sustainable?

I wonder what financial news would cause people to not freak out and bash GW? If GW makes more money, it's because management is advocating short-term profit instead of long-term growth and the company is going down the drain. If GW makes less money, it's because the company is going down the drain. This bias makes it very unlikely that anything productive will come out of conversations like this one.

I think that even though the prices are expensive, there are enough people interested to keep the hobby alive, even if they do go under, FLGS would still be open and gain more business and some wealthy person would start making models out of profit or love of the hobby.

Fetterkey wrote:I wonder what financial news would cause people to not freak out and bash GW? If GW makes more money, it's because management is advocating short-term profit instead of long-term growth and the company is going down the drain. If GW makes less money, it's because the company is going down the drain. This bias makes it very unlikely that anything productive will come out of conversations like this one.

Dakka advocates only utter contempt for GW. It may as well be in the rules.

DarknessEternal wrote:Dakka advocates only utter contempt for GW. It may as well be in the rules.

The opinions of some of Dakka's members are in no way representative of the site as a whole. The site has always had a spread of people who are quite vocal about their opinions both for and against GW's corporate attitude. There is no single 'Dakka' voice.

elrabin wrote:..... How is this not sustainable?

GW sales have been delining steadily for years now. GW may well be making a profit now but eventually they will reach a tipping point and their revenues will plummet. That is why GW's current situation is ultimately unsustainable. thats not to say that they are doomed of course but they need to do something, constant price rises and recycled core game editions simply aren't working.

Palindrome wrote:

elrabin wrote:..... How is this not sustainable?

GW sales have been delining steadily for years now. GW may well be making a profit now but eventually they will reach a tipping point and their revenues will plummet. That is why GW's current situation is ultimately unsustainable. thats not to say that they are doomed of course but they need to do something, constant price rises and recycled core game editions simply aren't working.

What do you suggest they do?

DarknessEternal wrote:

Fetterkey wrote:I wonder what financial news would cause people to not freak out and bash GW? If GW makes more money, it's because management is advocating short-term profit instead of long-term growth and the company is going down the drain. If GW makes less money, it's because the company is going down the drain. This bias makes it very unlikely that anything productive will come out of conversations like this one.

Dakka advocates only utter contempt for GW. It may as well be in the rules.

Ahh, internet hyperbole where would we be without it.

What I would suggest GW do is steadily decrease their prices and attempt to re-engage with the large number of people who have moved on from GW. They also really need to take a long hard look at the rules that they produce, producing products that aren't aimed at young teens would be a good start.

lord_blackfang wrote:

Kroothawk wrote:
3.) Good thing that every GW store and Indy had to buy a completely new range of 145 colours (6 each -> 1300 € per store extra plus 4 new paint sets and a compendium) in April.

Just to clarify, Indies were in no way obligated to do this, nor were they forced to buy into the entire range at once.

Not only that, but my FLGS said that GW is trying to buy all of his old paints from him.


Automatically Appended Next Post:

Ajroo wrote:

I'd rather they made money than folded, i bet 95% of the the GW hating moaning bitches would cry if they shut down.

I have some Warhams to sell you. My last army before I am folding on GW. Check out my auction here!


Automatically Appended Next Post:

elrabin wrote:

UNCLEBADTOUCH wrote:@elrabin GW is not succeeding despite falling revenue. It is failing because it is causing falling revenue.

If you adjust to take into account price rises, sales are falling for their retail chain.

As far as whether or not GW succeeds, does it really matter how their retail chain performs? GW is a manufacturer (and distributor) first, and a retailer second. Overall, sales revenue is up (even though volume may be lower).

GW uses their retail stores as a way to build their brand, advertise their products, and to separate themselves from other miniatures manufacturers. As long as that store gets more people into "the hobby," or encourages hobbyists to buy more GW products, it is doing its job.

Not sure I agree here. This is comparing a product that sells 100 units at $10 each moving to a model that sells 10 units at $100 each. The object is to get people into the hobby, not price them out of it. Sure, they may be profitable, but their consumer base also might have shrunk considerably. And to infer that having retail chains open convinces parents to buy a $100 game for little Timmy I think is a little naive.

Alpharius wrote:
What do you suggest they do?

I think that the entire GW business model should be based on pushing people into heaviliy supporting more than one army (ideally more than two). The company grew at it's fastest level when people were able to do this. Sure they were expanding naturally for many years and there was the LOTR bubble, but even so...

They are currently doing the exact opposite atm I believe through their pricing strategies.

I would say 'someone at GW must have run the numbers a couple of dozen times and reckon they make more money in the short, medium and long term the current way, but then this is GW...

I must be a case in point here. My real income has risen a lot since say 8 years ago, but I am spending less now than I was then! Edit. Actually I'm spending less and getting less.

puma713 wrote:[

Not sure I agree here. This is comparing a product that sells 100 units at $10 each moving to a model that sells 10 units at $100 each. The object is to get people into the hobby, not price them out of it. Sure, they may be profitable, but their consumer base also might have shrunk considerably. And to infer that having retail chains open convinces parents to buy a $100 game for little Timmy I think is a little naive.

Wargaming is very dependant upon networking effects, the more people there are who buy your products the wider your potential consumber base becomes. Selling less for more in such a situation simply makes no sense.

elrabin wrote:

Kroothawk wrote:
1.) Total revenue is flat or declining for years (not considering the 10% price hike per year, so total sales decline massively).

Looking at their annual reports....yes, revenue has not been steadily growing. However, In 2006/2007, GW downsized, and spent a lot on automated tooling equipment and software. This reduced their operating costs and has allowed them to increase profit with nearly flat revenue. Royalties have also been a boost to profit (especially this year with Space Marine).

The annual reports also show sales over time (though I don't believe they are adjusted for inflation). You can see that sales decreased from 2004-2007, but since then have been increasing.

For the first half of FY2012, GW has done very well compared to the same period last year, and are on track for a very good year.

Kroothawk wrote:2.) All net profit is given to the shareholders, a.o. Tom Kirby. Often more than total net profit, sometimes they loan money to pay shareholders. So the company is drained each year.

Tom Kirby owns only 6.7% of GW. Furthermore, it's the board's policy (stated multiple times in the annual reports) to pay out all surplus cash in the form of dividends. This is not an uncommon practice, as idle cash does nothing for the company. Given that they just overhauled their manufacturing facility in 2007, what else should they spend their cash on?

Your "facts" and "rational analysis" are not welcome here! Leave us to whinge and armchair-manage a business far in excess of the scale any of us will ever work for let alone run in peace(cue some numpty going "hupa-durr ima bajillionaire and donald trump wishes he wus me ino whut ima sayin")!

Seriously guys, everyone knows GW have made a few questionable decisions, everyone knows their price increases are often unreasonable, but can we stop with this "imma let you finish but GW have the most incompetent board of all time!" rubbish? Some of you are acting like they're bloody bankers.

darkdm wrote:Just to calrify, I know that here in the US the indy stockists had to purchase new rack and new paints in order to remain stockists. Failure to purchase their new rack and paints would result in loss of stockist status. Sure, they had the option not to buy it, but it meant losing what little prize support GW offered them for events, as well as free shipping on orders and the lower wholesale costs. And to boot, they were only allowed to send back $200 worth of the old paint for credit...

Yeah, that is flatout wrong. Mikhaila has busted that whole myth time and again.

H.B.M.C. wrote:

Oakenshield wrote:Now that they've gotten away with all they did over the past year they're going to feel bold enough to dissolve the galactic senate. The Regional managers will now have direct control over their territories. Fear will keep the local customers in line.

Don't be so proud of this oligarchical terror they've constructed. The ability to control the HHHobby is insignificant next to the power of the its customer base.

This is the most amazing thing I have read all day literally so funny I made my wife read, and then had to explain it to her....lol.

Palindrome wrote:GW sales have been delining steadily for years now. GW may well be making a profit now but eventually they will reach a tipping point and their revenues will plummet. That is why GW's current situation is ultimately unsustainable. thats not to say that they are doomed of course but they need to do something, constant price rises Yand recycled core game editions simply aren't working.

FY Revenue Profit 2005 134,804 9,996 2006 114,468 2,864 2007 109,501 -3,300 2008 110,345 449 2009 125,706 5,351 2010 126,511 15,080 2011 123,052 11,720 2012* 62,717 6,909 (est)

First half 2012 results look stronger than 2011. (And of course it doesn't include sales for December). (It may also be worth noting that GW didn't pay out dividends during FY2008-2010)

Revenue has not increased over the last few years, but profitability has. And that's not solely because of licensing and BL/Forgeworld. GW has spent a lot of effort over the last 5 or so years cutting costs and making their supply chain and distribution more efficient. Now they are working on their retail chain, focused especially on North America. So far in 2012, NA sales increased by over six percent vs the same time last year, while Europe and the UK were relatively flat across the same time.

In any case, I'm not sure I see this "steady decline in sales" that you referred to. GW certainly isn't growing explosively, but they have gotten control of their costs and process and now have a rock solid core. They are now focusing on how to get more people involved. The current strategy is by leveraging (newly) trained retail staff and managers.

elrabin wrote:
Revenue has not increased over the last few years, but profitability has.
.

How much have GW's prices increased over the same period? Rheinholdt (I think) on Warseer did a graph which plotted GW's reported revenues against the average yearly price rise and the result was about an annual 5% decrease in sales. Its cigarette packet accounting I know but only GW has the actual data so its the best that we can realistically do.

Revenue and profitability are almost irrelevent to the long term health of the company if GW can't convince people to start buying again.

Alpharius wrote:

Palindrome wrote:

elrabin wrote:..... How is this not sustainable?

GW sales have been delining steadily for years now. GW may well be making a profit now but eventually they will reach a tipping point and their revenues will plummet. That is why GW's current situation is ultimately unsustainable. thats not to say that they are doomed of course but they need to do something, constant price rises and recycled core game editions simply aren't working.

What do you suggest they do?

Now that is a good question. Mature industries usually stagnate on gross revenue, so they improve performance by focusing on margins. That's good for the short term, but with the fact that prices on actual products are increasing, it means that the player base is getting smaller and smaller. And at some point, there's a "crossover" point, where there are just too few people playing in some areas that the handful that are left just quit...

My thoughts?
1. Sell your novels digitally on Kindle. Crazy that many aren't available that way.
2. PDF all rulebooks.
3. Aggressively reobtain MMO rights, find new partners to publish. THQ's financial difficulties remove a significant revenue stream (good size MMO yields $2m/month...of which GW would get around 10%). Ideally, start your own digital division. There's too much $ on the table there to continue to license it out, IMHO.
4. Create gateway products (small $ initial investment) - squad based games that serve as a cheaper alternative for newer players.
5. Create new IP's once every five years. IP's as significant as Warhammer or 40k. Not one off games. Disney does the same thing; they're constantly creating new characters in animated films and adding to their IP. GW, if anything, has shrunk its focus. Post Apocalypse. Modern day horror. Cyberpunk. Tons of possibilities.
6. Explore selling either prepainted or pre-prepared like Dust.
7. Change the codex philosophy. Introduce regular updates w/ "campaigns" where each army gets new units.

Also keep in mind that just because GW is paying out a dividend doesn't mean it's doing well. In the past they have borrowed money at interest to pay dividends, completely irrational from any business perspective, but it did manage to roughly double Mr.Kirby's yearly income due to his stake while he was (illegally under UK law) both Chairman and CEO.

Instead of using that excess cash for additional lines, speeding up releases, helping stop the bleed from their stores, reorganizations, new ventures, additional promotions, etc.

pretre wrote:

darkdm wrote:Just to calrify, I know that here in the US the indy stockists had to purchase new rack and new paints in order to remain stockists. Failure to purchase their new rack and paints would result in loss of stockist status. Sure, they had the option not to buy it, but it meant losing what little prize support GW offered them for events, as well as free shipping on orders and the lower wholesale costs. And to boot, they were only allowed to send back $200 worth of the old paint for credit...

Yeah, that is flatout wrong. Mikhaila has busted that whole myth time and again.

No offense to Mikhaila, but I trust the owner of the shop I game at more. If what I said is not the case, then that's way better than what I heard.

The biggest problem I have with GW's business practices, specifically its annual price hike is that GW seems to think its selling things people NEED, not what people WANT. For example, gas companies due pretty much the same thing GW does, hike up their prices annually despite the moaning and groaning of consumers. The difference being that at the end of the day, people will still pay the new gas prices because they need the gas, otherwise they can't get to school/work/home etc. On the other hand, nobody needs to buy 40k,/WHF stuff, and eventually the time will come when GW prices things just way too high the average buyer, and it won't be pretty. I consider myself a loyal customer to GW and even with last year's price hike I still kept buying lots 40k stuff, but really, a box of assault marines or a Trygon can only ever be worth so much, at one point I will have to say F*** it and not buy GW stuff anymore. And I fear that will happen rather soon...

elrabin wrote:The annual reports also show sales over time (though I don't believe they are adjusted for inflation). You can see that sales decreased from 2004-2007, but since then have been increasing.

Maybe I should have been more explicit. Revenue is flat or declining for years. Add an annual 5-10% price increase (mostly on introductory products), GW sells 5-10% less products each year. Selling just one Space Marine box for 120 Mio GBP some day in the future might keep revenue flat but is not enough to sustain a decent customer base or gaming community.

elrabin wrote:Given that they just overhauled their manufacturing facility in 2007, what else should they spend their cash on?

Alpharius wrote:What do you suggest they do?

Well, the management should google the words marketing and advertising for a start. Then they should make a brain storm session, why making introductory products 10% more expensive each year is a bad idea, esp when you have so few introductory products (all with 100+ pages of rules). Recruiting new customers is crucial to any business, but currently GW is doing anything to remain unknown and to raise the hurdle for entering this hobby. That's where they have to invest.

pretre wrote:

darkdm wrote:Just to calrify, I know that here in the US the indy stockists had to purchase new rack and new paints in order to remain stockists. Failure to purchase their new rack and paints would result in loss of stockist status. Sure, they had the option not to buy it, but it meant losing what little prize support GW offered them for events, as well as free shipping on orders and the lower wholesale costs. And to boot, they were only allowed to send back $200 worth of the old paint for credit...

Yeah, that is flatout wrong. Mikhaila has busted that whole myth time and again.

If it is the same as in Europe, he is actually quite right. Only the new racks are free and you are aloowed to send back about 150 pots of old paints. The "GW wants to buy all old paints", as mention by someone else, certainly is a misinterpretion.

darkdm wrote:

pretre wrote:

darkdm wrote:Just to calrify, I know that here in the US the indy stockists had to purchase new rack and new paints in order to remain stockists. Failure to purchase their new rack and paints would result in loss of stockist status. Sure, they had the option not to buy it, but it meant losing what little prize support GW offered them for events, as well as free shipping on orders and the lower wholesale costs. And to boot, they were only allowed to send back $200 worth of the old paint for credit...

Yeah, that is flatout wrong. Mikhaila has busted that whole myth time and again.

No offense to Mikhaila, but I trust the owner of the shop I game at more. If what I said is not the case, then that's way better than what I heard.

Well, I'll let my point stand until someone with firsthand exp steps in. Hearsay helps nothing.

Or maybe not every store is the same, my wing'ed friend, and thus while Mikhaila is certainly not lying about his experiences, his experience might not be the only one out there.


Anyway. Most of this is moot. Come November The Hobbit will hit, that will last 2 and a bit years, and then Kirby will give the "Hobbot Bubble" excuse in each annual report for the two years after it bursts. In other words, second verse same as the first.

Why am I winged?

DarknessEternal wrote:

Kroothawk wrote:
3.) If all management decisions would be made random, GW's total renevue would easily increase 10% per year without the need for price hikes. A decent manager could achieve even more.

With your brilliant financial mind, why aren't you a billionaire already then and buy GW?

How do you know he isn't? *wink wink* Either way, I doubt he'd invest in GW.

I would call this dividend bad news. Divis attract and keep investors happy but you rarely see dividends in tech companies or companies with constant investment and R&D and I do not count GW as a secure franchise company like burgerking or walmart. I'd rather see them reinvest the money into more forms of digitalizing the WH franchise. Poor myopic CEO silly ceos.

I'm fairly sure I remember the FLGS saying they were given the new paint rack for free.

pretre wrote:Why am I winged?

I've explained it in the past.

Aduro wrote:I'm fairly sure I remember the FLGS saying they were given the new paint rack for free.

Wait, thats the 6 week escalation challenge prize

So, what army should I buy when my dividend hits my trading account?

DKoK. If you're going to invest free money into an army, make it a spendy one.

agnosto wrote:So, what army should I buy when my dividend hits my trading account?

Privateer Press stocks xD

LunaHound wrote:

agnosto wrote:So, what army should I buy when my dividend hits my trading account?

Privateer Press stocks xD

Are they even public?

Aww guess not.

In that case.... leave all the money aside, buy 6th edition starter boxes when it starts and sell them separately on ebay!

Iur_tae_mont wrote:DKoK. If you're going to invest free money into an army, make it a spendy one.

Meh, I bought a bunch of mantic undead last year and rolled the rest back into more stock. This year I might hang onto it and use it for a trip to cancun; I haven't been playing too much lately....dunno.

LoL at the starter box idea. Sounds like too much effort though. That reminds me that I should cash some of it out for 6th edition though.

agnosto wrote:

LunaHound wrote:

agnosto wrote:So, what army should I buy when my dividend hits my trading account?

Privateer Press stocks xD

Are they even public?

Facebook stock, then.

puma713 wrote:

agnosto wrote:

LunaHound wrote:

agnosto wrote:So, what army should I buy when my dividend hits my trading account?

Privateer Press stocks xD

Are they even public?

Facebook stock, then.

It'll be too late by then. I was thinking about it but I think they've already overbooked their IPO. I've decided to lay off stock purchases for a while since I got burned a bit by a Taiwanese tech stock a while back.

agnosto wrote:

LunaHound wrote:

agnosto wrote:So, what army should I buy when my dividend hits my trading account?

Privateer Press stocks xD

Are they even public?

For the same of the game's fans I hope not, and that it remains that way.

agnosto wrote:So, what army should I buy when my dividend hits my trading account?

Considering the dividend is approx 24cents (pre tax) which is roughly 20c post tax something in the region of 2500 shares to buy an army I find that statement highly unlikely. I can think of far better places and better companies to invest $15k.

Kroothawk wrote:
2.) All net profit is given to the shareholders, a.o. Tom Kirby. Often more than total net profit, sometimes they loan money to pay shareholders. So the company is drained each year.

OK, where exactly this claim comes from again (saw it last time 6 months ago when it was busted)? IIRC their last financial report stated that the company was nearly debt-free and had fair amount of surplus cash.

Backfire wrote:

Kroothawk wrote:
2.) All net profit is given to the shareholders, a.o. Tom Kirby. Often more than total net profit, sometimes they loan money to pay shareholders. So the company is drained each year.

OK, where exactly this claim comes from again (saw it last time 6 months ago when it was busted)? IIRC their last financial report stated that the company was nearly debt-free and had fair amount of surplus cash.

It doesn't because the comment betrays a misunderstanding of accounting. All net profits belong to shareholders and are tracked in a separate account. Not all net profits are distributed to shareholders however but some companies dip into a borrowing facility to pay shareholders for cashflow purposes. Tthe reality of companies paying dividends when shareholder funds are negative are slim.

What I think I'm noticing about GW in North America is what seems like a steady retail expansion into untapped markets. I've not been in the hobby long enough to know previous years retail expansion and contraction trends, but it seems GW recognizes big potential for hobby growth in the US.

I think that means that they are addressing the dropping unit sales figures by expanding brand reach.

As to the coming price increase, I'd push my product out price-wise until the market really pushed back. What I see is a clear and deliberate NA strategy, declining unit sales, and level stock performance. GW is building for long term sustainability. If they can expand just slightly more than they contract they create an income investment with reliable return. THey have a sustainable model...it's not an aggressive profit model, but it is a model.

As I write this it makes me imagine a company primping itself for getting gobbled by a private equity firm or something...random thought..

fullheadofhair wrote:

agnosto wrote:So, what army should I buy when my dividend hits my trading account?

Considering the dividend is approx 24cents (pre tax) which is roughly 20c post tax something in the region of 2500 shares to buy an army I find that statement highly unlikely. I can think of far better places and better companies to invest $15k.

What like investing in Facebook? GW has been one of the best performing stocks in my portfolio.Up 30% in half a year. Bought it in anticipation of the Hobbit bubble. The dividends have just been gravy. Of course will dump it after the second Hobbit movie comes out

Osbad wrote:Looks like Failcast and the Great Southern Hemisphere Boycott hasn't hurt Gee-Dub not hardly at all

Games Workshop Group PLC

DIVIDEND AND TRADING UPDATE


For immediate release 17 May 2012

Games Workshop Group PLC announces that the Board has today declared a dividend of 16 pence per share. This will be paid on 26 June 2012 for shareholders on the register at 25 May 2012.

Games Workshop further announces that pre-tax profits in respect of the year to 3 June 2012 are likely to be ahead of current market expectations.

http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:GAW.L&display=news&action=article&articleid=8588893

Of course that is just "profits". What has happened to turnover and volume sales, which is far more important for the longer term output has yet to be revealed...

Means nothing as of yet that their giving a dividend. They borrowed money one year to do that.

Turnover and volume will be telling.

silent25 wrote:

fullheadofhair wrote:

agnosto wrote:So, what army should I buy when my dividend hits my trading account?

Considering the dividend is approx 24cents (pre tax) which is roughly 20c post tax something in the region of 2500 shares to buy an army I find that statement highly unlikely. I can think of far better places and better companies to invest $15k.

What like investing in Facebook? GW has been one of the best performing stocks in my portfolio.Up 30% in half a year. Bought it in anticipation of the Hobbit bubble. The dividends have just been gravy. Of course will dump it after the second Hobbit movie comes out

God no - would not touch that with a barge pole; classic case of "emperor has no clothes". Until they can effectively monetarise their base I cannot see that being worth $40 a share.

Investing in what you know is always a good idea especially if you can understand the cyclical nature of the company. I tend to invest in more banking and housing related - made some good money off Lowes and Bank of America (70% and 110%). Made some good money off BP but had to take a 25% tax hot as bought and sold with the year but then lost almost 90% on a total gamble on Fannie May - held onto long and got greedy!

I am sure people could have made some good capital gains on GW - I was just skeptical at the thought someone bought enough stock to buy a wholw army from the dividends.

fullheadofhair wrote:

agnosto wrote:So, what army should I buy when my dividend hits my trading account?

Considering the dividend is approx 24cents (pre tax) which is roughly 20c post tax something in the region of 2500 shares to buy an army I find that statement highly unlikely. I can think of far better places and better companies to invest $15k.

Maybe he hasn't.

I bet Gamesworkshop has been losing sales to Ebay

Arm.chair.general wrote:I bet Gamesworkshop has been losing sales to Ebay

2002 called. They want their insightful commentary back.

(Yes, yes, I know. Warn them! and such.)


Automatically Appended Next Post:

H.B.M.C. wrote:

pretre wrote:Why am I winged?

I've explained it in the past.

Oh, I forgot about that whole business. Largely, because it is ridiculous.

fullheadofhair wrote:

agnosto wrote:So, what army should I buy when my dividend hits my trading account?

Considering the dividend is approx 24cents (pre tax) which is roughly 20c post tax something in the region of 2500 shares to buy an army I find that statement highly unlikely. I can think of far better places and better companies to invest $15k.

And no one could possibly have a brokerage account with more than 15k in it? Wow. I'm actually doing better with GW stock right now than the Citibank stock I own and we won't even get into a certain biotech stock that I washed out on a few years ago *shiver*. I know many here do not think GW stock to be worth anything but then, possibly, they don't know what they're talking about. I've owned the stock and sold it more than once and have always made money from it when doing so; it's currently up 300p from when I bought it and will probably sell it again at some point, if/when it starts trending down. Needless to say, I'm happy to see the return of dividends.

Kroothawk wrote:

pretre wrote:

darkdm wrote:Just to calrify, I know that here in the US the indy stockists had to purchase new rack and new paints in order to remain stockists. Failure to purchase their new rack and paints would result in loss of stockist status. Sure, they had the option not to buy it, but it meant losing what little prize support GW offered them for events, as well as free shipping on orders and the lower wholesale costs. And to boot, they were only allowed to send back $200 worth of the old paint for credit...

Yeah, that is flatout wrong. Mikhaila has busted that whole myth time and again.

If it is the same as in Europe, he is actually quite right. Only the new racks are free and you are aloowed to send back about 150 pots of old paints. The "GW wants to buy all old paints", as mention by someone else, certainly is a misinterpretion.

Maybe it's different for every store, although I don't know why GW would go to all the trouble.

It's also a time-honoured tradition for some Indy store managers to blame all their problems on their suppliers.

I know for a fact my FLGS was free to pick and choose which parts of the paint line to carry. Skipped all the purples, much to my annoyance.

agnosto wrote:

fullheadofhair wrote:

agnosto wrote:So, what army should I buy when my dividend hits my trading account?

Considering the dividend is approx 24cents (pre tax) which is roughly 20c post tax something in the region of 2500 shares to buy an army I find that statement highly unlikely. I can think of far better places and better companies to invest $15k.

And no one could possibly have a brokerage account with more than 15k in it? Wow. I'm actually doing better with GW stock right now than the Citibank stock I own and we won't even get into a certain biotech stock that I washed out on a few years ago *shiver*. I know many here do not think GW stock to be worth anything but then, possibly, they don't know what they're talking about. I've owned the stock and sold it more than once and have always made money from it when doing so; it's currently up 300p from when I bought it and will probably sell it again at some point, if/when it starts trending down. Needless to say, I'm happy to see the return of dividends.

Of-course they can. I do. However, most people with over $15k are diversified. I almost bought GW stock at the same time but it would have been for a fun type investment but when another route - didnt get the same growth as you did on my choice however (inc. dividends). I wasn't saying the stock was worthless I was just saying I find it unlikely someone would invest sufficient and still remain sufficiently diversified to earn in dividends the $500 needed for a new army.

fullheadofhair wrote:

agnosto wrote:

fullheadofhair wrote:

agnosto wrote:So, what army should I buy when my dividend hits my trading account?

Considering the dividend is approx 24cents (pre tax) which is roughly 20c post tax something in the region of 2500 shares to buy an army I find that statement highly unlikely. I can think of far better places and better companies to invest $15k.

And no one could possibly have a brokerage account with more than 15k in it? Wow. I'm actually doing better with GW stock right now than the Citibank stock I own and we won't even get into a certain biotech stock that I washed out on a few years ago *shiver*. I know many here do not think GW stock to be worth anything but then, possibly, they don't know what they're talking about. I've owned the stock and sold it more than once and have always made money from it when doing so; it's currently up 300p from when I bought it and will probably sell it again at some point, if/when it starts trending down. Needless to say, I'm happy to see the return of dividends.

Of-course they can. I do. However, most people with over $15k are diversified. I almost bought GW stock at the same time but it would have been for a fun type investment but when another route - didnt get the same growth as you did on my choice however (inc. dividends). I wasn't saying the stock was worthless I was just saying I find it unlikely someone would invest sufficient and still remain sufficiently diversified to earn in dividends the $500 needed for a new army.

My GW stock is out of my play account; my retirement account is handled by professionals (I hope) and has consistently shown 8-11% growth though the average will be a bit small due to the last few years. I move money back and forth between various investments, my GW stock isn't even my largest holding...unfortunately that's Citibank and..yeah, we won't go into bank stock right now but I can't complain too much as I bought in at $1.24/share (though I can't recall off-hand as it was so long ago).

The great thing is that I started my account with $5k and haven't had to add anything since, thank you Pfizer and your little blue pill. I highly recommend stock trading to everyone, especially considering Americans will most likely not have social security to fall back on. Instead of blowing your tax return or christmas money, squirrel it away in an account, draw some interest and then invest it; stay away from penny stocks unless you like to gamble.

n0t_u wrote:Seeing as how their sales have dropped yet they've declared a profit in the past. Usually not meant to work that way...

Actually, it does work that way...

Let's say I sell 1000 items at $5 each and my production cost is $1 each. My net gain would be $4000. If I raise prices to $8, then I will usually* sell less. Let's say I only sold 600 items. Now my profits are $4200.

Basically, if they double prices and see a less than 50% drop in product sales then profits go up.

The ONLY time raising prices leads to a drop in profits is when you are already at or slightly above the "sweet" spot. I think GW is pretty close to that point now.


*note on the "Usually". Some people refuse to purchase items if they are priced below perceived value. In effect if GW did something radical like drop the price of their models to something like $0.10 each then interesting things would happen. A certain segment of the population would buy a lot of items, but a larger segment would not only NOT buy but would quickly switch to a different game thinking GW wasn't worth it anymore. This would fairly quickly lead to GWs demise.

That said, sometimes a product starts off priced pretty low and people ignore it because they think there is no value. However, when the price of that exact same product moves up then more people buy.. to a point.

Pricing as it relates to profits is part science part art. The "art" aspect is picking the correct price point. The science part is what happens when you figure out the upper and lower bounds.

clively wrote:A certain segment of the population would buy a lot of items, but a larger segment would not only NOT buy but would quickly switch to a different game thinking GW wasn't worth it anymore. This would fairly quickly lead to GWs demise.

That can be true in some industries, but I would be doubtful about it applying to miniatures. People avoid cheap appliances or clothing on the basis that it's not likely to be as good in quality as a more expensive brand. But with miniatures, where the difference in quality between brands is almost purely down to visual appearance, a lower price isn't going to put people off... They can see the quality of the sculpt, and will buy it if they are happy to pay the asking price.

So if I sink 40k right now I could walk away with $1000 in dividends next month? Am I reading that right? As long as you hold on the 25th?

DX Nin wrote:So if I sink 40k right now I could walk away with $1000 in dividends next month? Am I reading that right? As long as you hold on the 25th?

Yes, though that currency is pounds, not dollars.

Also, given that the average daily volume is so low, it would be difficult to buy so many shares (without driving the price super high). Furthermore, keep in mind that stock prices generally decrease after the ex-date by (at least) the dividend amount. So while you would walk away with ~3% of your principal in cash, your principal value would have decreased by roughly the same amount. At the end of the day your money will not have gained any value (more likely you will lose value immediate after the ex-date). And, of course, have fun selling that many shares. Because doing so will drive the price down unless you sell them slowly.

There are much better ways to try to make a quick buck.

Ajroo wrote:Why is everyone so annoyed that a business is making money?

I'd rather they made money than folded, i bet 95% of the the GW hating moaning bitches would cry if they shut down.

Why it's there IP that matters, let GW die. Let the others come in and pick there bones. Then maybe they will play test the game then release rules. GW is a model company let a game company make the rules. But I can say were I live GW dosen't sell as good anymore. But, BattleTech, Board/Card games (not MtG), and very slowly Infinity are taking over. What use to be 6 days of GW and 1 day for a WFB/40K tournament, is now 1 day for WFB 1 day for 40K a week and 1 WFB/40K tournament a month. Every thing else just move faster off the shelf.

Noir wrote:

Why it's there IP that matters, let GW die. Let the others come in and pick there bones.

And this shows the complete lack of understanding regarding the impact of GW on the overall industry. If GW were to go tits up tomorrow. The gaming industry would collapse. All the stores in my area, GW sales make up a plurality of the sales at the store. Even if their slice of sales is dropping (which in my area, they aren't) it still makes up a good chunk of most FLGS' sales. All my FLGS' said that if GW went under suddenly, they would have to close shop. The loss in revenue would be too big a hit. Hell, half the posts on this forum are companies that provide extras for GW products. They would all find themselves in trouble.
To give you an idea of size, a PP employee told me the annual revenue of the company a couple years ago (generally regarded as the #2 in the miniature industry). It was less than 10% of GW's revenue.
Yes, some other company might come along and pick up the IP and start a new game, but that could take years. And when it does, it is very likely not going to be related to the original game (Wizkidz' Battletech CMG?) In the meantime, players won't all just pick-up a new game. Some might move to other games, but some may just keep playing the game as is. Not putting any additional money into stores. Some might drop out of the hobby all together.
That being said, if GW slowly declined into irrelevance where their sales don't matter anymore and then fold, it would be different. FASA use to be huge, but they became irrelevant over time and didn't get more than an "oh well" when they folded. Their disappearance had minimal impact on the industry.

silent25 wrote:

Noir wrote:

Why it's there IP that matters, let GW die. Let the others come in and pick there bones.

And this shows the complete lack of understanding regarding the impact of GW on the overall industry. If GW were to go tits up tomorrow. The gaming industry would collapse. All the stores in my area, GW sales make up a plurality of the sales at the store. Even if their slice of sales is dropping (which in my area, they aren't) it still makes up a good chunk of most FLGS' sales. All my FLGS' said that if GW went under suddenly, they would have to close shop. The loss in revenue would be too big a hit. Hell, half the posts on this forum are companies that provide extras for GW products. They would all find themselves in trouble.

Really, most stores the 4 in my county are supported be MtG, I watch guy drop 400-800 each expansion. GW stuff get 400-800 too, but that maybe 2-5 years when there army come out, some times longer. It makes up nearly as much as every thing else sold in the stores togather. It is not GW that people are buying but there IP, witch can be sold if GW gose under and there games will keep going on. But, to tell the truth, if your running a business that could go under if one company gose out of business, you should really think about changing there business model. Thous company that support GW would be the same ones that will pickup the IP or just keep making them for the model of the company that dose pickup the IP. The only reason there be any slow down of production is if GW went out of there way to screw over every one, when they go under. A company like GW fail would be know far enough in advance by the people that matter, that all the suppy and demand issue could be taking care of before the IP is even transferred, unless the IP is so damaged by GW before this happen, that no one want it.

silent25 wrote:

And this shows the complete lack of understanding regarding the impact of GW on the overall industry.

What GW's real function is in the wargaming hobby is to bring in new people, that is certainly not to say that they are the only route in though. If GW was to fold overall player numbers would decline in the short term but in the medium and long term I doubt that there would be much changel. This is especially the case if GW's IP is still being utilised.

Some stores will close, a lot of people will Ebay their armies but Its hardly catastrophic. Its actually quite common to find clubs in the UK that don't play GW games at all and the Uk is supposed to be GW's core market.

silent25 wrote:

Noir wrote:

Why it's there IP that matters, let GW die. Let the others come in and pick there bones.

If GW were to go tits up tomorrow. The gaming industry would collapse..

QFT. I love GW, they're a great British success story as a business and long may it continue. Let them raise prices, I'll adjust. How many Dreadnoughts does one army need anyway?

Palindrome wrote:
What GW's real function is in the wargaming hobby is to bring in new people, that is certainly not to say that they are the only route in though. If GW was to fold overall player numbers would decline in the short term but in the medium and long term I doubt that there would be much changel. This is especially the case if GW's IP is still being utilised.

Some stores will close, a lot of people will Ebay their armies but Its hardly catastrophic. Its actually quite common to find clubs in the UK that don't play GW games at all and the Uk is supposed to be GW's core market.

Agree that GW acts as a gateway drug for gaming, but I see the problem as having an impact on distributors and game stores. As I said, the stores in my area, GW makes up a plurality of their sales (aka largest segment). So even say they are well diversified and GW sales only make up 20% of the stores sales. That 20% disappearing can mean the owner can no longer order new product or pay all the bills. Even if the disruption is only a few months, game stores don't have deep pockets, the impact can cripple a store for a long time. Plus, what remaining GW product on the shelves, they would have difficulty moving since it is a dead game. They could blow it out, but would be doing so at no profit or even a loss. With those stores not able to order new product, other companies feel the pinch as they don't see as much demand as previously. That puts them under pressure and they have to start to cut costs as well and start to get into trouble as well.

Just because there are some clubs that do non-GW games does not mean that everyone will switch over right away. Might take several months to convince people to try new games. During that time, a lot of store will be hurting and could fold. And as I said before, if someone grabs the IP, it is not guaranteed that they will immediately start supporting 40K/WHFB again. Say Hasbro gets it and ends up only releasing a series of board games based on the IP or worse, collectable miniature game

The impact would be real but only on the short to medium term. It is also very dependant upon exactly how GW imploded, Its not as if people don't continue to play orphaned GW games, I know of a club where the only GW games that are played are Necromunda and Mordheim.

I would like to see some GW inspired board games, after all just look at how many gamers of a certain age played Space Crusade and/or Heroquest.

I seriously doubt flames of war or Warmachine would be popular without GW around. Game stores may not be totally built around miniature games (as MTG is a huge seller), but without GW there would be no miniature section in those stores for sure

This would make it so FoW and WM wouldn't have the critical mass of players to warrant stocking it in a vast majority of stores. Like GW or hate them, they create the tempo that others follow (Just look at the prices for WM and FOW.. they're very comparable)

In order to be able to play wargames consistently IN public (IE not in your basement) you need GW because without them why have store space for miniature games?

Kirasu wrote:
In order to be able to play wargames consistently IN public (IE not in your basement) you need GW because without them why have store space for miniature games?

I know of several stores whose stock of FoW, WM/H, Malifaux, and other games (even Wargods of Aegyptus) move faster than GW miniatures. Some don't bother stocking Fantasy. One even stocks Vallejo paints instead of GW's line.

^ I bet GW wouldn't be to happy

Who cares what GW thinks? They're the ones who screwed the store over in the first place.

Companies that believe themselves to be monopolies though usually aren't quite happy when competition starts to show up. Though before others grab monopoly and throw the word around, it is much more closer to an oligopoly on their own IP.

Philly has a much higher game store saturation than a lot of areas.. If you're only going to have 1 or maybe 2 stores in the area I doubt you can afford to bet the store on smaller games is all. When competing with Showcase and similar stores it's probably easier to focus on those other games

It's all relative to your area and customers obviously but the point is without GW there wouldn't have even been a market of dissatisfied customers to even play those other games (Well besides FoW since its WW2)

YakManDoo wrote:What I think I'm noticing about GW in North America is what seems like a steady retail expansion into untapped markets. I've not been in the hobby long enough to know previous years retail expansion and contraction trends, but it seems GW recognizes big potential for hobby growth in the US.

I think that means that they are addressing the dropping unit sales figures by expanding brand reach.

As to the coming price increase, I'd push my product out price-wise until the market really pushed back. What I see is a clear and deliberate NA strategy, declining unit sales, and level stock performance. GW is building for long term sustainability. If they can expand just slightly more than they contract they create an income investment with reliable return. THey have a sustainable model...it's not an aggressive profit model, but it is a model.

As I write this it makes me imagine a company primping itself for getting gobbled by a private equity firm or something...random thought..

I would second this. They are expanding rapidly in NA, and there are many people that I know who have jumped onto the GW train with or without my saying. I would say there is quite the growing market at least in Florida for it.

They regularly close and open stores though. Once the area is tapped out, they close and move the store elsewhere.

One of their main problems is they also run retail instead of supplying to stores in general, creating a much much greater cost and making each of these store closings and openings hurt them a bit.

Kirasu wrote:Philly has a much higher game store saturation than a lot of areas.. If you're only going to have 1 or maybe 2 stores in the area I doubt you can afford to bet the store on smaller games is all. When competing with Showcase and similar stores it's probably easier to focus on those other games

It's all relative to your area and customers obviously but the point is without GW there wouldn't have even been a market of dissatisfied customers to even play those other games (Well besides FoW since its WW2)

Wargaming has been around for millenia, long before GW even thought of making their own games. Suggesting that without GW there would be no modern wargaming is rather misleading.

Im glad things look good for them. They could get bought out by Hasbro...

Kirasu wrote:Philly has a much higher game store saturation than a lot of areas.. If you're only going to have 1 or maybe 2 stores in the area I doubt you can afford to bet the store on smaller games is all. When competing with Showcase and similar stores it's probably easier to focus on those other games

It's all relative to your area and customers obviously but the point is without GW there wouldn't have even been a market of dissatisfied customers to even play those other games (Well besides FoW since its WW2)

To be honest, Showcase is the only games store in the Philly area I know that is surviving on GW. Everything, especially on the Jersey side of the river, turns on M:TG these days.

Agreed, thats why I specifically meant the wargaming portion of the games store not the whole store itself.

Wargaming has been around for millenia, long before GW even thought of making their own games. Suggesting that without GW there would be no modern wargaming is rather misleading.

Odd, I don't remember reading about all the retail stores in the Roman Empire that had table space for wargames

Kirasu wrote:

Wargaming has been around for millenia, long before GW even thought of making their own games. Suggesting that without GW there would be no modern wargaming is rather misleading.

Odd, I don't remember reading about all the retail stores in the Roman Empire that had table space for wargames

Yeah, that's the way to win a debate.

For every set of rules out there that have been even slightly influenced by GW's rules over the years, there are dozens of others that owe nothing to GW whatsoever.

To say that GW hasn't had an influence on contemporary wargaming would be incorrect, since they managed to grow to be the largest wargame-producing company by appealing to the lowest common denominator . But it would be a grave error to think that we owe GW for the existence of wargaming today. And if we do owe anything to GW, it's to the GW of the 80's and 90's, not to the GW of today.

It's relevant since my point was about stores providing FREE space for wargames. Not the existence of wargames themselves. (While wargames existed there were no retail stores where random people could come in and play)

GW games provide a critical mass of players that makes it presumably profitable for stores to devote the space (since it costs money) and the time required to maintain such a space. Yes the other games are popular and would exist without GW but I seriously doubt stores would provide terrain and plenty of tables for the vastly smaller games

Same reason why retail stores don't stock many small brands in general, they are there to make money not make gambles.

I still stand by my belief that love GW or hate it they provide a large number of wargamers that make having devoted table space much LESS of a risk to a store owner, thus those tables can then be used by the smaller games as well.

It's the same deal with space marines, like them or not.. They allow GW to produce non-space marines because they provide the income to do so

Kirasu wrote:GW games provide a critical mass of players that makes it presumably profitable for stores to devote the space (since it costs money) and the time required to maintain such a space. Yes the other games are popular and would exist without GW but I seriously doubt stores would provide terrain and plenty of tables for the vastly smaller games

The thing that this argument is missing is that without GW around, some of those smaller games would potentially be considerably bigger... If (and I'm in no way suggesting it's likely to actually happen any time soon) GW were to collapse under their own hubris, it wouldn't result in everybody just saying 'Oh, ok then' and giving up wargaming. Some would, certainly... those who are only interested in 40K or WHFB specifically. But many of those gamers would just turn to one of those other games that they've been eyeing off but never started playing because they were already invested.

The only report I pay attention to is when I walk into any of the 7-8 major game store within an hours drive from me and dont see a sliver of the GW games going on that I used to. If it wasnt for Forge World and Black Library GW would be done.as a publicly traded company.

I'd also like to point that that GW proliferated the idea that you need stores to play at. I honestly almost never game in a store - I'd much rather do it at home with my the terrain I built myself.

What I see out there (anecdotal, anecdotal, anecdotal) are game store calendars with few to any 40k games scheduled. The market appears to be in a place of diversification at a pretty remarkable clip though not necessarily one of net growth. The question for any industry is whether or not they are making new customers, servicing existing, or losing customers. Servicing customers is the most cost effective strategy for near term financial viability with new customers being one of the most expensive things to obtain. GW is clearly doing all three in an ever diversifying marketplace with a focus on servicing the existing client base. I think GW's financials point to a saturated market with little real growth opportunity.

Forge World appears to be a growing segment of the business along with Black Library. These represent the two extremes of the client base; casually interested in the IPs (Black Library representing the lowest threshold of interest) and deeply invested in the IPs (Forge World churning out high end resin all the freaking time for the enthusiast).

Maybe GW realizes something we don't as enthusiasts: market saturation. They have reached the limit of the market for miniature tabletop wargaming. They can't really grow the segment like it once grew so now they will focus on the edges and the high end resin. Their financial report IMHO is a sign of where GW sees the marketplace; paltry growth amidst a diversifying set of offerings. I'd be happy if I were a stockholder looking for income, but tabletop wargaming is not a growth industry. GW knows the industry 'cause it defines it.

From a few years of casting my eye over their stated accounts I would say GW is what it has been for two decades now - a vehicle for one man to rake in the cash. When the current owner bought out Ansell back in 1991 or whenever strategic decisions were made to maximise profitability. Amazing to remember when GW used to stock other people's stuff, they syndicated stuff like Stormbringer and Paranoia RPGs in the UK, they made and stocked a range of boardgames, their's and others, etc. In short they were an all-round gaming company, run by gamers for gamers, they stocked everything. Ansell had moved to get rid of other people's stuff, but he did retain boardgames, RPGs, etc.

The new owners decided to concentrate on Citadel, it was a simple matter of profit margin. RPGs and boardgames made too little so miniatures were the way to go.

GW has been run since as if it is a vehicle for one person to profit and put together a large pension pot. Many decisions seem to be short-termist and lacking in any long-term thinking. Contracting sales and rising prices are not a way to grow long term. Clearly the customer base is dwindling, but new starters are likely to be put off by the base prices, so the strategy is essentially to wring more and more from a falling base. This is clearly not a long range strategy. lack of any offers, bulk discounts, introductory offers, sales, etc, etc in this environment point to a firm looking to take profit now and not concern itself too much with future events.

The problem here is what happens when the owner decides he has taken out enough and retires. He will be set for several lifetimes with huge sums of cash. However, the firm will be left with an unworkable business model that is effectively a spiral of decline with no growth strategy. Then a private equity firm or something would pick up the company. That might not be bad as anyone taking over would look to grow the business which has massive potential to expand IMHO and would do so quickly based on larger unit sales and better economies of scale. More targeted sales expanding tactics would bring rewards fast but that is not the company focus, guaranteed levels of profit regardless of future profits are.

Couldn't agree more Isengard...GW shows no signs of wanting to grow substantially...minimal marketing, no sales etc.

What I think will be interesting to watch is the post-Hobbit movies GW. There will be new armies for the weakest of the lines, bump in sales, and better numbers during the movies' runs. 6th edition, the new starter set, and rapid C:SM, Tau, and Dark Angels codexes could really make next year's numbers pop. However, it still doesn't fix the long-term trajectory of the company.

GW feels like a firm without ambition.