It sounds like standard media jargon, but the Chairman of the Board has absorbed the CEO position he vacated to bring in Wells 5 years ago. Interesting.
There's something ironic about the wording: "The needs of the business over the last few years has meant there has been a gradual overlapping of the roles of Chairman and CEO" given that Tom Kirby took the role of Chairman so that there could be a different person as CEO.
Did Tom Kirby finish his posting in the States and return to the UK?
Games Workshop Group announces a change in Senior Management
For the past five years Games Workshop has had the best CEO it has ever had. Under Mark Wells’ leadership we have become better organised, clearer thinking and commercially more robust.
The needs of the business over the last few years has meant there has been a gradual overlapping of the roles of Chairman and CEO. Recently this has become so complete that, after discussions together, Mark and Tom have agreed that the CEO’s role, as it stands, is redundant.
Tom will incorporate the role of Acting CEO into his position as Chairman and, whilst it will undoubtedly come as something of a surprise, Mark has decided to leave the business.
Mark is looking forward to planning his next challenge and he does so with our support, best wishes and heartfelt thanks.
angryboy2k wrote: There's something ironic about the wording: "The needs of the business over the last few years has meant there has been a gradual overlapping of the roles of Chairman and CEO" given that Tom Kirby took the role of Chairman so that there could be a different person as CEO.
Did Tom Kirby finish his posting in the States and return to the UK?
Yup he did.
Back on topic. Wells probably seen the writing on the wall about the and departed in a amicable manner.
Jan 18 (Reuters) - Games Workshop Group PLC : * Revenue for six months to December 2 £67.5M, versus £62.7M yoy * H1 pre-tax profit £11.1M, versus £9.5M yoy * Dividend per share declared in the period 18P * Games workshop's core business model remains strong
Jan 18 (Reuters) - Games Workshop Group PLC : * Revenue for six months to December 2 £67.5M, versus £62.7M yoy * H1 pre-tax profit £11.1M, versus £9.5M yoy * Dividend per share declared in the period 18P * Games workshop's core business model remains strong
So if GW saw their revenue increase 7.06% What was the last price increase? 10%? 15%? So they still have falling volume and a declining customer base with the price hikes being the only thing hiding that they're actually losing market share.
When GW manages to both increase their sales revenue and increase their volume, then they have their core business model remaining strong.
This shouldn't really catch us off guard as when you do the same things, you get the same result and GW has been doing the same thing since the LOTR bubble popped.
Wells is probably smart to pursue opportunities elsewhere. There are lots of companies bigger than GW in all sorts of industries that might not have the same 3-5%+ a year decline in customer base. Actually looking at a graph of units sold over the last decade of things like starters and squad unit boxes must be pretty depressing.
Isn't this what happened to the Green Goblin in the first Toby spiderman movie?
Will we see Mark Wells return in a thunderhawk gunship, glad in terminator armour cursing the "board"? We can only hope.
I suppose if we are looking for positives with the CEO merged into the current chairman's position then Games workshop will be more inclined to turn a profit and become a more successful business, with the largest company in Tabletop gaming anyone would be a fool to let it go under.
Further more even if they do model their market towards the young (as they always have btw) and lose members as a result, the older folks will be pushed into the arms and armies of the smaller model company's.
So win all around?
They've cut costs like mad over the last year. I thought all the fat was gone out of GW and they managed to cut another £1.4 million. That's impressive, but I don't see any mention of any investment in actually growing the business.
They are completely dedicated to the single employee store model now though. That last financial release pretty much makes that clear. It even mentions the recruiting drive to find more of them.
Which is actually kind of strange because the last financial report bragged about how they had redundant staff and already had replacements ready for all their managers.
So they cut expenses like mad, but now instead of having back up staff, they are recruiting. I guess a lot of managers got fired and are now being replaced.
This is only a half year report and the full one that comes out in the summer will likely go into more detail on just where expenses were cut.
Further more even if they do model their market towards the young (as they always have btw) and lose members as a result, the older folks will be pushed into the arms and armies of the smaller model company's.
So win all around?
Yep. It also means GW will stay the course as Kirby's plan of hiking prices and paying himself phat dividends is working (in terms of him getting richer).
The latest report also mentions that they are still committed to protecting their margins, so that means another price hike.
More of the status quo, more room for competition.
Win all around I guess. Investors get dividends, Kirby gets more power (hold two board seats as acting CEO and chairmen, and more of GW's market share gets given away to other companies.
So if GW saw their revenue increase 7.06% What was the last price increase? 10%? 15%?
Less than 5% as calculated across the catalogue. But obviously we have no way of knowing what the real increase was when number of sales is taken to account.
agustin wrote: I seem to recall starters and core unit boxes going up more than 5%. Something like 10% or 12%
Yes, some individual items have seen signifant increases in last few years (especially boxed sets). OTOH, there are always items whichs prices do not increase at all. It's difficult to say how much exactly price increases amount for revenue changes.
angryboy2k wrote: There's something ironic about the wording: "The needs of the business over the last few years has meant there has been a gradual overlapping of the roles of Chairman and CEO" given that Tom Kirby took the role of Chairman so that there could be a different person as CEO.
Did Tom Kirby finish his posting in the States and return to the UK?
Yup he did.
Back on topic. Wells probably seen the writing on the wall about the and departed in a amicable manner.
What nonsense. It's far more likely that Mark Wells has been headhunted to a much larger business. He's seen as something of a miracle worker around retail as he's managed to improve profitability in a company that was struggling while in the UK high street chains are going pop at the rate of one a week since Christmas. Keep your eyes peeled in 1-3 months once his grace period ends.
angryboy2k wrote: There's something ironic about the wording: "The needs of the business over the last few years has meant there has been a gradual overlapping of the roles of Chairman and CEO" given that Tom Kirby took the role of Chairman so that there could be a different person as CEO.
Did Tom Kirby finish his posting in the States and return to the UK?
Yup he did.
Back on topic. Wells probably seen the writing on the wall about the and departed in a amicable manner.
What nonsense. It's far more likely that Mark Wells has been headhunted to a much larger business. He's seen as something of a miracle worker around retail as he's managed to improve profitability in a company that was struggling while in the UK high street chains are going pop at the rate of one a week since Christmas. Keep your eyes peeled in 1-3 months once his grace period ends.
Yup, gotta love how he did that for GW... [/sarcasm]
agustin wrote: I seem to recall starters and core unit boxes going up more than 5%. Something like 10% or 12%
Yup a lot of plastics went up a fair whack, but then a huge range of prices stayed level, so the average increase is pretty small. Without knowing how much of what is selling (though we can assume mostly starter sets and core plastics from stores, and assume very little mail order only is sold) we can only guess as how the sales volume has changed.
Going by the YoY increase I'd have expected a much bigger bump from the new release of 40K.
agustin wrote: I seem to recall starters and core unit boxes going up more than 5%. Something like 10% or 12%
Yup a lot of plastics went up a fair whack, but then a huge range of prices stayed level, so the average increase is pretty small. Without knowing how much of what is selling (though we can assume mostly starter sets and core plastics from stores, and assume very little mail order only is sold) we can only guess as how the sales volume has changed.
I did some sums the other day and sales volumes will have to fall significantly before it affects profit. In fact there is a point where revenue falls, but actual profits still increase.
agustin wrote: I seem to recall starters and core unit boxes going up more than 5%. Something like 10% or 12%
Yup a lot of plastics went up a fair whack, but then a huge range of prices stayed level, so the average increase is pretty small. Without knowing how much of what is selling (though we can assume mostly starter sets and core plastics from stores, and assume very little mail order only is sold) we can only guess as how the sales volume has changed.
I did some sums the other day and sales volumes will have to fall significantly before it affects profit. In fact there is a point where revenue falls, but actual profits still increase.
By that you mean revenue from lower profit margin stuff falling whilst revenue from higher profit margin stuff increases or remains constant?
agustin wrote: I seem to recall starters and core unit boxes going up more than 5%. Something like 10% or 12%
Yup a lot of plastics went up a fair whack, but then a huge range of prices stayed level, so the average increase is pretty small. Without knowing how much of what is selling (though we can assume mostly starter sets and core plastics from stores, and assume very little mail order only is sold) we can only guess as how the sales volume has changed.
I did some sums the other day and sales volumes will have to fall significantly before it affects profit. In fact there is a point where revenue falls, but actual profits still increase.
By that you mean revenue from lower profit margin stuff falling whilst revenue from higher profit margin stuff increases or remains constant?
Correct-kind of. If your average margin is 40% (you make in £40 in gross profit for £100 in sales) and you put your prices up by 10% then you can afford to lose 10% in volume sales and still be making more profit. Turnover would be down 1% (£99), but gross profit up by just over 10% (£45). You can also raise your margin by concentrating on the items that make the most profit, and attempting to sell more of those.
Turnover is actually a terrible measure of a company's health.
I'd argue that turnover for something like a games company is a reasonable idea of health, because you need players to keep up the critical mass / market dominance. I can see that it'd be a less useful indicator for, say, washing machines.
Surely making profit by losing less sales than price increases isn't maintainable though, as you'll either (a) start to see a faster drop off as the prices rise or (b) reduce sales below the point you can benefit from economies of scale?
I'd argue that turnover for something like a games company is a reasonable idea of health, because you need players to keep up the critical mass / market dominance. I can see that it'd be a less useful indicator for, say, washing machines.
Surely making profit by losing less sales than price increases isn't maintainable though, as you'll either (a) start to see a faster drop off as the prices rise or (b) reduce sales below the point you can benefit from economies of scale?
Not when volume losses are that big year on year (they aren't for GWbtw). Companies tend to go in pulses, either growing turnover and reducing profits or vice versa depending on what the big issue is at the time for the company. At the moment in the financial cycle cash is king, borrowing is bad, and many companies are concentrating on maximising profit rather than turnover. Once we get out of recession/stagflation (this may take some time), then things will turn round and turnover growth will be what everyone is going for.
agustin wrote: I seem to recall starters and core unit boxes going up more than 5%. Something like 10% or 12%
Yup a lot of plastics went up a fair whack, but then a huge range of prices stayed level, so the average increase is pretty small. Without knowing how much of what is selling (though we can assume mostly starter sets and core plastics from stores, and assume very little mail order only is sold) we can only guess as how the sales volume has changed.
I did some sums the other day and sales volumes will have to fall significantly before it affects profit. In fact there is a point where revenue falls, but actual profits still increase.
By that you mean revenue from lower profit margin stuff falling whilst revenue from higher profit margin stuff increases or remains constant?
Correct-kind of. If your average margin is 40% (you make in £40 in gross profit for £100 in sales) and you put your prices up by 10% then you can afford to lose 10% in volume sales and still be making more profit. Turnover would be down 1% (£99), but gross profit up by just over 10% (£45). You can also raise your margin by concentrating on the items that make the most profit, and attempting to sell more of those.
Turnover is actually a terrible measure of a company's health.
I don't agree with your maths. Using your example I calculate the same £ profit will occur at a 20% fall in volume with a 10% price rise, if we factor in VAT then it can actually then you can absorb a 10% price rise up to a 26% fall in volume.
Yes, but the general point is the same i.e. falling sales volumes because of price increases don't impact on profits in the way we as buyers would hope.
Keep in mind when comparing this years 6 month period to last years 6 month period...last year did not include the "Black Friday" weekend and subsequent "Cyber Monday" which are historically very large retail days in the US (and I would think with Christmas being a somewhat global thing - a tick up in toy sales for the rest of the world as well).
5 days of sales during the Christmas season would likely well and good account for the whole of the difference between last years numbers and this years numbers.
We will miss Mark's expertise on marketing and selling shampoo.
GW is now searching for a new strawman posing as a CEO under Tom Kirby Didn't know that it is still legal in UK to have the Chair of the main CEO control mechanism to be also the CEO.
agustin wrote: So if GW saw their revenue increase 7.06% What was the last price increase? 10%? 15%? So they still have falling volume and a declining customer base with the price hikes being the only thing hiding that they're actually losing market share.
My Space Marines had about ~12% price increase over inflation... from 2004 to 2012. If you count starter set bundle savings, they went down in price over that time. It's important to remember that price increases do not apply to all items.
What nonsense. It's far more likely that Mark Wells has been headhunted to a much larger business. He's seen as something of a miracle worker around retail as he's managed to improve profitability in a company that was struggling while in the UK high street chains are going pop at the rate of one a week since Christmas. Keep your eyes peeled in 1-3 months once his grace period ends.
I agree. The savings in overhead, headcount, warehousing, as well as the rise in licencing profits were all pretty remarkable (compared to GW prior performance, at least).
Kroothawk wrote: Didn't know that it is still legal in UK to have the Chair of the main CEO control mechanism to be also the CEO.
It's still being debated whether it constitutes good or bad corporate governance, a random Google stat from PWC (didn't check the date, my bad) had approx 40% of British businesses with the role merged (PWC's own opinon was that each business should make a decision on the optimum board structure for itself).
It's hard to grasp how much some things have increased with the general numbers, so let me show you guys a picture
On the left is the old Orc boyz box, before the new army book came out. There are 20 in the box, and the price is hard to read in the photo, but it is $35. That makes it $1.75 per model, which is somewhat reasonable given that you can get it on sale, but you need a Lot of these models.
On the right is the new Orc boyz box. It looks a little thinner, right? And hey, it's cheaper, too! But it turns out there are only 10 in the box now, for $29. That makes it $2.90 per model.
Going from $1.75 per model to $2.90 per model is a 66% price increase. And this is on the main core unit of the army, which you need a Lot of to play, the sculpt of which has not changed in a long time.
This is why almost every Orcs & Goblins player I see is a legacy player- either they've been playing forever, or they got their army used from someone who had been. GW has literally priced themselves out of having anyone but a very Tiny fraction of people start a new Orcs & Goblins army. A smarter long-term business move would be to keep the core of the army cheap, to lure players in, and cash in when they want to buy the more exotic/expensive units.
I think Mark Wells has seen that things are not good, and The Hobbit is not going to buoy them as much as they thought (note the stack of boxes in the picture although these are LOTR I believe, The Hobbit is still upfront, gathering dust in a different part of the store) and it was a good time to jump ship.
The reality on the ground is that GW have simply made abundant room for competition with insane business moves like the price of the Orc Boyz box. It's just one example, but illustrates the situation very well. If you find Anyone starting a New, from scratch, Orcs & Goblins army, please point them out to me... they're nearly an extinct species now.
Just the natural flow of GW. One man shops, now one man board of directors. Pretty soon one man production team and in five years it will be Kirby being the only man playing games workshop products.....right on his timeline.
Hummm...what's the news here? We suspected Kirby never left and was always in control (status quo was maintained and will be maintained). And this confirmed it.
Senator Palpatine was behind Dooku...Dooku departs...who will become Anakin?
Sweet, the £400k/year they're saving in salary costs can be spent on tooling 10 new hard plastic kits for specialist games each year. :p
The Orc Boys boxset prices are an absolutely perfect point to make.
Remember, 2 months after GW raised the prices on those, Mantic released hard plastic orcs for 83p/mini compared to GW's £1.85/mini, with even better discounts to be had in their army boxes (which offer far greater savings than GW battleforces).
Of course, veteran orc players won't buy them (ebay or kitbash "like a proper orc" for them!), but I've seen quite a few new Orc and Undead armies made entirely from Mantic stuff.
In the post by faet212, they say the position was redundant due to overlapping responsibilities.
However, on the investor site they simply say that mark is stepping down and the position will be filled as soon as they can find a replacement.
Sounds to me like Mark wanted to reign in his control as CEO and Kirby wouldn't let that happen. So they are going to find a new CEO who simply wants a nice office and pay package.
For us gamers, I don't think the news is positive or negative. It's just a minor changing of the guard to give a new face.
Wow they come 10 in a box. So a 40 character mob is insanely priced. Just wow. How many would be in a unit for orc boyz. My brettonian archers are like 35.00 for 16 and i need anout 16-20 per unit so that price is ok. The knight of the realm gives me 35 for 8 so more or less a full unit.
RiTides wrote: It's hard to grasp how much some things have increased with the general numbers, so let me show you guys a picture
On the left is the old Orc boyz box, before the new army book came out. There are 20 in the box, and the price is hard to read in the photo, but it is $35. That makes it $1.75 per model, which is somewhat reasonable given that you can get it on sale, but you need a Lot of these models.
On the right is the new Orc boyz box. It looks a little thinner, right? And hey, it's cheaper, too! But it turns out there are only 10 in the box now, for $29. That makes it $2.90 per model.
Going from $1.75 per model to $2.90 per model is a 66% price increase. And this is on the main core unit of the army, which you need a Lot of to play, the sculpt of which has not changed in a long time.
This is why almost every Orcs & Goblins player I see is a legacy player- either they've been playing forever, or they got their army used from someone who had been. GW has literally priced themselves out of having anyone but a very Tiny fraction of people start a new Orcs & Goblins army. A smarter long-term business move would be to keep the core of the army cheap, to lure players in, and cash in when they want to buy the more exotic/expensive units.
I think Mark Wells has seen that things are not good, and The Hobbit is not going to buoy them as much as they thought (note the stack of boxes in the picture although these are LOTR I believe, The Hobbit is still upfront, gathering dust in a different part of the store) and it was a good time to jump ship.
The reality on the ground is that GW have simply made abundant room for competition with insane business moves like the price of the Orc Boyz box. It's just one example, but illustrates the situation very well. If you find Anyone starting a New, from scratch, Orcs & Goblins army, please point them out to me... they're nearly an extinct species now.
When I managed a store for GW (I left a little over a year ago) I was told that the yearly price rises were set to about 3% across the entire range of products. I remember when we got our sheets to change prices, there would be the occasional "odd" item like "Bloodbowl starter sets" that we didn't actually carry in store anymore.
As a result, to earn my yearly bonus, the store had to earn more than 3% of what it did the previous year. Every dollar above 3% would be used to calculate my bonus.
Did items really go up in price only by 3% across the board? I don't know. I didn't sit down and calculate all the price changes for all the products they sell. But I know how my bonus scheme worked, and the reason they used to calculate it seemed sound.
Go out and take a good look in your local gaming community and compared with what you saw 5 years ago, the market share has been steadily dropping everywhere and will continue to do so.
Either GW make a big change or it is going to sink fast. I am only surprised that the top management change does not come earlier.
Clarence wrote: When I managed a store for GW (I left a little over a year ago) I was told that the yearly price rises were set to about 3% across the entire range of products. I remember when we got our sheets to change prices, there would be the occasional "odd" item like "Bloodbowl starter sets" that we didn't actually carry in store anymore.
As a result, to earn my yearly bonus, the store had to earn more than 3% of what it did the previous year. Every dollar above 3% would be used to calculate my bonus.
Did items really go up in price only by 3% across the board? I don't know. I didn't sit down and calculate all the price changes for all the products they sell. But I know how my bonus scheme worked, and the reason they used to calculate it seemed sound.
The problem is is how does that take into account boxes that they cut in half but only reduce the cost by 20-25%. Does it just ignore them, or worse, count them as the same item but with a price decrease, because whenever that happens the actual cost for building the army for those factions goes up massively. (i.e. orcs, anything LotR, IG)
I hate to be the one to bring this up, but despite the endless predictions of hellfire and brimstone, I don't think GW is going to crash and burn. The problem is, for most people, this hobby is a small addiction. I'm not saying I'd be buying my kits from a pusher in the alley behind the library, but it's not far off from that. The prices will go up, but I feel many of us, myself included, will whine and moan but would eventually just open our wallets up a little bit further. And I think they know that.
I imagine they would treat those kinds of boxes like "new releases." That is, 0 sales records prior to the price increase. Don't know for sure, though.
noneoftheabove0 wrote: I hate to be the one to bring this up, but despite the endless predictions of hellfire and brimstone, I don't think GW is going to crash and burn. The problem is, for most people, this hobby is a small addiction. I'm not saying I'd be buying my kits from a pusher in the alley behind the library, but it's not far off from that. The prices will go up, but I feel many of us, myself included, will whine and moan but would eventually just open our wallets up a little bit further. And I think they know that.
Many of us are still in the "Hobby" () but are "opening our wallets" to other companies, instead.
Even for games workshop games, I buy 3rd party models now, and many do similarly. It's a trend, and GW will wake up to the music one way or the other, eventually. Their delaying to do so just strengthens the competition, which is actually a good thing for the "Hobby", but not so much for GW.
For the past five years Games Workshop has had the best CEO it has ever had. Under Mark Wells’ leadership we have become better organised, clearer thinking and commercially more robust.
GW writing reminds me of North Korea by this point.
Anyway there's a saying about changes in leadership on a national level. "Goodbye old boss, hello new boss, same as old boss". Sums up my opinion on this.
noneoftheabove0 wrote: I hate to be the one to bring this up, but despite the endless predictions of hellfire and brimstone, I don't think GW is going to crash and burn. The problem is, for most people, this hobby is a small addiction. I'm not saying I'd be buying my kits from a pusher in the alley behind the library, but it's not far off from that. The prices will go up, but I feel many of us, myself included, will whine and moan but would eventually just open our wallets up a little bit further. And I think they know that.
So don't open your wallet for GW at all. It is a pretty easy solution. The only GW products I have bought in I think 3 years now have been two GW tape measures because I needed ones with centimeters to play Freebooter's Fate and the FLGS had them handy. I have a Mantic undead army, a heavily converted Perry Brothers Imperial guard army, several Red Box Games Mordheim warbands, Perry Brothers and Mantic Blood Bowl teams, and I haven't actually played Warhammer or 40K in about 2 years now.
My enjoyment of my hobby has actually increased since separating from GW on purely principled grounds. It wasn't actually the prices that pushed me out. If you don't like the way a company does business, you can simply stop rewarding that business model with your custom. I have always been amazed by the "we know we'll just keep buying it" attitude. It is an entertainment product in an increasingly competitive market, not gasoline, grain, or crack.
I think that part of the problem is that GW sees that many customers buy more than one army. They must think to themselves, these folks have lots of money. Why don't we sell them one army instead of two or more, and charge them as much as two or more armies currently cost.
noneoftheabove0 wrote: I hate to be the one to bring this up, but despite the endless predictions of hellfire and brimstone, I don't think GW is going to crash and burn. The problem is, for most people, this hobby is a small addiction. I'm not saying I'd be buying my kits from a pusher in the alley behind the library, but it's not far off from that. The prices will go up, but I feel many of us, myself included, will whine and moan but would eventually just open our wallets up a little bit further. And I think they know that.
That only works if the hobby is GW. I've come back to Wargaming in a big way lately, at first buying GW again but in the last couple of years whilst my hobby spend has gone up drastically, all I'm actively buying from GW is essentials, the rest of my money is going to myriad other gaming companies. So whilst some people may buy GW stuff whatever they charge, I'd wager there are more who'll either give up or seek better value elsewhere.
I don't think GW is going to crash and burn any time soon; they are still fairly profitable and can weather the reduced sales, but their growth is nonexistant compared to their competitors, so I'm not sure I'd have the same view in a few years. It may be a gradual death by a thousand papercuts.
noneoftheabove0 wrote: The prices will go up, but I feel many of us, myself included, will whine and moan but would eventually just open our wallets up a little bit further. And I think they know that.
I also like people that "stick it to GW" by buying things from an online retailer. Morons
When a company announces someone is stepping down that usually means that the person involved has lost a power struggle against the the big boss and has no option but to fall on his sword. Obviously he failed the saving throw.
noneoftheabove0 wrote: I hate to be the one to bring this up, but despite the endless predictions of hellfire and brimstone
No one sensible has been claiming that, a slow steady decline leading to an eventual collapse/buy out is the most common prediction. So far it seems the most likely outcome as well.
We will have to see what the latest financials have to say though.
They didnt decrease as fast last year (despite some finanical jiggery pokery with the results) so its possible that their decent has been slowed, maybe even stabilised.
Seems to me that as other people have said GW are stripping the fat from the company. Regarding the competition, I don't see so many people stopping playing, just not buying direct. Also when you look at the competition you see companies with a smaller turnover doing more exciting things. Added to that is the weird Forgeworld phenomenon of more expensive models being more popular which has only gotten stronger since they started doing Horus Heresy products.
Regardless of the prices debate, GW do need to look at why Black Library and Forgeword (who I would have thought were supposed to be smaller subsidiaries of the main Studio) are generating more excitement than the main 40k and Fantasy releases. They also need to consider what is going to happen to the IP rights that THQ had.
Bloodwin wrote: Seems to me that as other people have said GW are stripping the fat from the company. Regarding the competition, I don't see so many people stopping playing, just not buying direct. Also when you look at the competition you see companies with a smaller turnover doing more exciting things. Added to that is the weird Forgeworld phenomenon of more expensive models being more popular which has only gotten stronger since they started doing Horus Heresy products.
Regardless of the prices debate, GW do need to look at why Black Library and Forgeword (who I would have thought were supposed to be smaller subsidiaries of the main Studio) are generating more excitement than the main 40k and Fantasy releases. They also need to consider what is going to happen to the IP rights that THQ had.
GW will probably have a say on where their IP goes as part of their contract with THQ/relic.
noneoftheabove0 wrote: I hate to be the one to bring this up, but despite the endless predictions of hellfire and brimstone
No one sensible has been claiming that, a slow steady decline leading to an eventual collapse/buy out is the most common prediction. So far it seems the most likely outcome as well.
We will have to see what the latest financials have to say though.
I would counter your statement with the fact that the majority of the anit-GW folks (and the internet as a whole) hardly present sensible arguements. However at any given moment dakka seems to have 1-3 threads going about the downfall of GW and how X is the breaking point for people giving up the game.
Depending on which business school of thought you come from GW is either in a decent place or on a long road to trouble. GW's business model seems to be based on delivering short term success to its share holders (not uncommon for a publicly traded Niche company) however there are some pretty clear IMO indicators that point to long term issues, as you pointed out.
oh, conspiracy theory time! Rat leaving a sinking ship or pushed out by Kirby in a power struggle? Maybe Wells has seen the sales figures for The Hobbit and has decided to go before the next quarter's financials are published.
There might not be much to this story, people move from one company to another all the time, maybe he just had a better offer. Anyway, I doubt this will make a great difference to the customer.
Howard A Treesong wrote: oh, conspiracy theory time! Rat leaving a sinking ship or pushed out by Kirby in a power struggle? Maybe Wells has seen the sales figures for The Hobbit and has decided to go before the next quarter's financials are published.
There might not be much to this story, people move from one company to another all the time, maybe he just had a better offer. Anyway, I doubt this will make a great difference to the customer.
Well having a good look through the story it is being fairly frank and open and can probably be taken at face value (!!!!!) about the position Mark had that the company now considers redundant. This can only mean a few things.
The company really has evolved to the point where higher management can be completely removed. Seems unlikely but this could happen depending on the procedures put in place that have lead to a functional organisation without the need for Mark, or employees (here Kirby or other management) simply extending their influence. These changes could have been deliberately brought in by Kirby to undermine the position and reduce it's overall importance to the company. Possible. Though the article expresses surprise at his decision to leave suggesting no one wanted him to leave suggesting he did this completely of his own judgement even though no one wanted it. Which suggests the "organisation" (read Kirby) was happy to simply have Mark as a figurehead even with reduced importance. - So why leave
There could be any number of reasons.
Maybe he couldn't handle the pressure of it, cracked and has been slowly moving to make his way out of the door for sometime. Maybe he sees that he is just a puppet to the dividend hungry "investors" and is unhappy that he is basically given the job of s******g the workforce he likes to fill the pockets of some already way too rich kid. IDK
I am no doubt sure Mark is going to be well set for the future. This means he no doubt has plans for what he wants to do in the future. It is a bit of a waste to be in a company with such influence and have non of that. To be a figurehead however liked just isn't some peoples cup of tea.
So probably it is anyone's guess. But that's my 2 cents
noneoftheabove0 wrote: The prices will go up, but I feel many of us, myself included, will whine and moan but would eventually just open our wallets up a little bit further. And I think they know that.
I also like people that "stick it to GW" by buying things from an online retailer. Morons
Actually a reasonable middle ground for those wishing to continue buying GW minis.
This restricts the income to GW as they only get the wholesale price, saves the consumer some cash on the rrp and also supports an independent retailer which will likely stock other ranges, allowing competitors the chance to grow.
Not all that moronic in the grand scheme of things, and this is what I do in the main. In fact I took a 30 mile trip to buy paint this week rather than go to the GW in walking distance.
Every little helps and if everyone followed suit it would send a very loud message to GW management.
noneoftheabove0 wrote: The prices will go up, but I feel many of us, myself included, will whine and moan but would eventually just open our wallets up a little bit further. And I think they know that.
I also like people that "stick it to GW" by buying things from an online retailer. Morons
Actually a reasonable middle ground for those wishing to continue buying GW minis.
This restricts the income to GW as they only get the wholesale price, saves the consumer some cash on the rrp and also supports an independent retailer which will likely stock other ranges, allowing competitors the chance to grow.
Not all that moronic in the grand scheme of things, and this is what I do in the main. In fact I took a 30 mile trip to buy paint this week rather than go to the GW in walking distance.
Every little helps and if everyone followed suit it would send a very loud message to GW management.
Hang on.
you would rather pay for transport for 30miles to pick up some paint?!
you would rather pay for transport for 30miles to pick up some paint?!
I admire your spirit though.
It's a store I'd not visited before, they're quite new and our club is trying to build a relationship with them, plus they do a blanket 20% off everything. So there's a little more to it.
Would have bought more but unfortunately their range is still a bit small and they didn't have anything that said buy me now!
Howard A Treesong wrote: oh, conspiracy theory time! Rat leaving a sinking ship or pushed out by Kirby in a power struggle? Maybe Wells has seen the sales figures for The Hobbit and has decided to go before the next quarter's financials are published.
There might not be much to this story, people move from one company to another all the time, maybe he just had a better offer. Anyway, I doubt this will make a great difference to the customer.
Kirby was brought in by Bryan Ansell when he bought out Steve Jackson back in the mid 80's. Kirby bought out Bryan Ansell back in the late 80's/early 90's and took GW public. Kirby heading to the US may have signaled Wells trying to relegate/oust Kirby in turn. Possibility board/ major shareholders were not happy with Well's direction/decisions. Given the Hobbit release does not factor into these numbers, but are know by GW, may be the real reason for his departure. Failure of a very anticipated product is normally grounds for upper management to fall in its sword.
noneoftheabove0 wrote: The prices will go up, but I feel many of us, myself included, will whine and moan but would eventually just open our wallets up a little bit further. And I think they know that.
I also like people that "stick it to GW" by buying things from an online retailer. Morons
Actually a reasonable middle ground for those wishing to continue buying GW minis.
This is where I find people to be morons. If someone is at the point where they want to actively screw over GW, why would they give them their business at all?
noneoftheabove0 wrote: The prices will go up, but I feel many of us, myself included, will whine and moan but would eventually just open our wallets up a little bit further. And I think they know that.
I also like people that "stick it to GW" by buying things from an online retailer. Morons
Actually a reasonable middle ground for those wishing to continue buying GW minis.
This is where I find people to be morons. If someone is at the point where they want to actively screw over GW, why would they give them their business at all?
I don't want to 'actively screw over GW' Like many I love playing the game, the fluff and many other aspects, it's been part of my life for nearly a quarter century.
I do find their apparent attitude and some of their actions distasteful though and I go out of my way to reduce the amount of cash they get from me if I can, without cutting off my nose to spite my face.
This world isn't binary, there are shades of grey. You can choose to walk a middle ground. This appears to be news to you.
Also, please stop implying I'm a moron, or I'll get cross.
Wasn't there a rule preventing the seat of the High Lord of the Administratum and the Holy Synod of the Ecclesiarch from being occupied by the same person?
BTW does someone remember why GW was forced to split the position of CEO and Chair, that 5 years ago were both held by Tom Kirby. He obviously continued to hold both positions inofficially, making Wells redundant, and has returned to officially hold both positions now.
Howard A Treesong wrote: oh, conspiracy theory time! Rat leaving a sinking ship or pushed out by Kirby in a power struggle? Maybe Wells has seen the sales figures for The Hobbit and has decided to go before the next quarter's financials are published.
There might not be much to this story, people move from one company to another all the time, maybe he just had a better offer. Anyway, I doubt this will make a great difference to the customer.
Kirby was brought in by Bryan Ansell when he bought out Steve Jackson back in the mid 80's. Kirby bought out Bryan Ansell back in the late 80's/early 90's and took GW public. Kirby heading to the US may have signaled Wells trying to relegate/oust Kirby in turn. Possibility board/ major shareholders were not happy with Well's direction/decisions. Given the Hobbit release does not factor into these numbers, but are know by GW, may be the real reason for his departure. Failure of a very anticipated product is normally grounds for upper management to fall in its sword.
.
No that was at the same time as the HQ move to Memphis, Kirby was likely here to oversee that operation, probably not a power-play at that time.
ironicsilence wrote: the timing does seem odd for someone to buy 17% voting rights in the company
I read the exact opposite here:
"Situation previous to the Triggering transaction: 5,829,141"
"Resulting situation after the triggering transaction: 5,629,141"
"Threshold(s) that is/are crossed or reached: 18%"
"Percentage of voting rights: 17.74%"
Someone (an institutional investor) sold shares, not bought them. Someone who previously owned more than 18% had to file because they sold and now have less than 18% (17.74% to be exact).
200,000 shares were sold, not purchased.
Who the someone is: Nomad Investments, one of the institutional investors that holds a good chunk of GW's shares.
Cynical part of me is thinking: 6th Edition 40k was released in this 6 month reporting period. 40k is the single most played wargame in the world, and every player needs the rulebook (or easy access to their friend's rulebook).
I can't think of what major release (if any) GW had in june-december 2011.
However, this is countered by the fact that GW obviously spaces out their releases so the sales spikes are normalised over time. For every summer where 40k is released, there is a summer where 4 separate army books are redone.
Australia is back to profit. Yay. Biggest growth regions in terms of revenue are North America and Other (Forgeworld, Black Library, Digital Sales). Does digital sales count all online orders, or just digital products? I assume the latter.
Also, Nomad crossed the line for 18/17%. They changed their ownership. They did not buy 17% (or 8 million pounds today) - unless they recently sold everything to buy it back. By corporate rules they are required to report changes in their holdings. They owned more at the time of the year end report (though probably a dividend play).
Palindrome wrote: a slow steady decline leading to an eventual collapse/buy out is the most common prediction.
The evidence for which is a growing revenue, growing profits and growing margins.
I don't get why people who don't like GW seem intent on predicting their imminant demise. I hate Apple with a passion, I hate everything they make and I especially hate Steve Jobs (lol). But I can't see them going anywhere any time soon, even though they ran out of ideas about 4 years ago.
I don't think GW's current strategy is desirable in the really long term, but it'll keep working for quite a long time. They can keep increasing the prices and some customers will be lost, but their revenue will go up and their margins will be protected.
GW will be around for a long time and each annual price increase will bring them in more revenue (if only slightly) and a slightly shrinking customer base. It obviously can't go on forever, but I think they can double their current prices and they'll still sell enough to not lose money. I think they'll hit parity between GW plastics and Forge World and they'll still make their business work.
They'll just give up a bunch of market share in the process. Which is good for everyone.
Palindrome wrote: a slow steady decline leading to an eventual collapse/buy out is the most common prediction.
I don't get why people who don't like GW seem intent on predicting their imminant demise.
There's certainly an element of wishful thinking. For example, I hope that GW dies and the masses emerge blinking into the light; coming to realise that non-GW games aren't shifty entities to be feared and distrusted, but diverse creations that should be encouraged and tried. This would mean plenty of worthy games that struggle to get off the ground would have a more receptive player base, and some of the games I've tried to play in the last couple of years would have a longer than 2 month shelf-life.
Of course what's more likely to happen is that the 2nd hand market keeps the game going for some time and another company picks up the IP, but that's less useful to me.
Palindrome wrote: a slow steady decline leading to an eventual collapse/buy out is the most common prediction.
The evidence for which is a growing revenue, growing profits and growing margins. .
Actually the evidence for that is steadily falling sales, which has been happening year on year for close to a decade now. Profits, revenue and margins now don't matter if less and less people are buying your products, especially in a market which requires a critical mass of customers to be truly successful. So yourself.
As I said already last year wasn't as bad as usual so its possible that they have turned a corner but I doubt it given that absolutely nothing has changed with their buisness model.
A core game and an accelerated release schedule is the change in business practice. Basically realising they can't recruit quickly enought they are going to try and turn over codices and rulebooks as quickly as possible. This is a gamble, on one hand it gets more money from existing gamers that want to stay up to date and introduce new "power" items in the range. For WFB 8th brought monstrous cav, super powerful and a unit people didn't already own meaning people are pushed to buy new items and rebuild and army with every edition rather than just update your books, it's the same with 40K 6th ed and fliers. The downside of this is people will more likely stick to one army per system if they are updated quicker and plenty of people will get off if the merry-go-round becomes to fast for them.
They have turned a corner if, and only if, they have both an increase in revenue and an increase in units sold, in real terms. They are close the last couple years, but they're still shedding volume in exchange for revenue. They need to grow both consistently to have really turned a corner.
UNCLEBADTOUCH wrote: A core game and an accelerated release schedule is the change in business practice .
Thats not much more than peripheral changes and the accelerated release schedule is very likely to do with the Chapterhouse lawsuit and the very likely scenario that GW will lose, basically wave releases won't work anymore (if they ever did). GW needs a root and branch overhaul and I can't see that happening under their current management.
Didn't say it was a big change but it is a change. The greatest change from the chapterhouse POV is that they are trying to do full releases so all units are covered in one drop or very short time period rather than leaving some units unreleased over several editions. To be honest I don't see any overhauls in the near future though.
Palindrome wrote: a slow steady decline leading to an eventual collapse/buy out is the most common prediction.
The evidence for which is a growing revenue, growing profits and growing margins.
I don't get why people who don't like GW seem intent on predicting their imminant demise. I hate Apple with a passion, I hate everything they make and I especially hate Steve Jobs (lol). But I can't see them going anywhere any time soon, even though they ran out of ideas about 4 years ago.
Actually, their revenue has been rather flat for the past several years. Their margins and profits have grown largely due to downsizing their fixed costs as much as possible from their stores. They've cut costs as much as they can, all they have left is profit per widget which, despite the highly illogical ramblings of many people on this forum, is still subject to supply and demand and as such pushes people away as the price rises.
Actually, their revenue has been rather flat for the past several years. Their margins and profits have grown largely due to downsizing their fixed costs as much as possible from their stores. They've cut costs as much as they can, all they have left is profit per widget which, despite the highly illogical ramblings of many people on this forum, is still subject to supply and demand and as such pushes people away as the price rises.
Its not that GW goods don't follow supply and demand; its that the supply and demand graphs you learn in ECON101 are very simplified and ignore a few important points: lock-in and network effects.
1) GW products lock in veterans. There is a large amount on money and time sunk into the product, which has a comparatively low resale value. It is much easier to continue to buy 1-2 units when needed, than to start an entirely new army.
2) Network effects are very important for wargames; the value of a game is proportional to the number of people playing the game squared. In other words, Dystopian Wars is worth *nothing* to me because no-one in my area plays it, but 40k is worth *a lot* because every single person at my games club has at least one army.
Case in point: when the 'embargo' to Australia came into effect, most people at my games club took up different games which were cheaper. The problem was that everyone took up different games. We had 3 Warmahordes players, 4 Malifaux, 2 Firestorm Armada, 3 Dust Warfare... and after about 6 months of this, we all started bringing our 40k armies to the club again. Even though we wanted to switch, we couldn't without a concerted and directed effort by multiple people at a time.
... that being said your post is mostly correct; GW is cutting costs without significant increases in sales volumes (though GW does seem to be keeping on and on squeezing and still getting savings long after I thought it would have been wrung dry) .
1) GW products lock in veterans. There is a large amount on money and time sunk into the product, which has a comparatively low resale value. It is much easier to continue to buy 1-2 units when needed, than to start an entirely new army.
That depends, you can get a 1000 pt Bolt Action army (~50 inf, 1 vehicle, hmg, mortar) and the main rulebook for the cost of 2 Darktalons.
Games Workshop has lost its chief executive as the miniature model maker was boosted by brisk sales of toy soldiers in the US.
The company said Tom Kirby, Games Workshop’s chairman, would replace Mark Wells as acting chief executive until a permanent replacement is found.
Mr Wells spent five years at the company, whose recent robust sales of model orks, elves, ogres and wizards have helped it weather the consumer spending downturn relatively well.
“We discussed this for a while and Mark preferred a clean break,” said Mr Kirby, who added he would be in the job for at least a year until an internal candidate is found.
The departure comes as Games Workshop reported revenues of £67.4m in the six months to December 2, up from £62.7m during the same period in 2011, bolstered by increasing sales to American teenagers attracted to its fantasy world.
Pre-tax profits increased from £9.4m to £11m, while diluted earnings per share rose from 21.8p to 25.4p. The company announced an interim dividend of 18p a share, unchanged from last year.
The performance is a far cry from the beginning of 2011 when the City raised questions about Games Workshop’s long-term viability – particularly in the face of the strength of online gaming – after difficult trading conditions forced it to issue a profit warning.
However, in the company’s 2012 annual report Mr Kirby said the release of electronic games consoles such as the Nintendo Wii and Xbox 360 had a negligible impact on the group’s toys.
Last July the company reported full-year pre-tax profits of £19.5m, up 27 per cent, and raised its full-year dividend 40 per cent year on year.
The company, which opened its first shop in Shanghai in 2011, is targeting geographic expansion in Asia, continental Europe, the US and Australia.
“Wherever we go in the world we can usually find people who want to play with toy soldiers,” said Mr Kirby. “The cultural differences aren’t so important . . . teenage boys tend to like the same kind of things and toy soldiers fall into one of those universal categories.”
However, the North American market, where interim sales rose by £2.5m to £17.9m during the first half, has emerged as a particular focus.
“North America is going very well,” said Mr Kirby. “We’re looking at 700-800 stores in the US in the extreme long term and we’ve got 80 at the moment with plans to open 1-20 stores per year.”
Tom Kirby wrote:“We discussed this for a while and Mark preferred a clean break,” said Mr Kirby, who added he would be in the job for at least a year until an internal candidate is found.
Tom Kirby wrote:“We discussed this for a while and Mark preferred a clean break,” said Mr Kirby, who added he would be in the job for at least a year until an internal candidate is found.
Who could've guessed it!
Also...
Spawn of Satan a.k.a. Head of GW wrote: “North America is going very well,” said Mr Kirby. “We’re looking at 700-800 stores in the US in the extreme long term and we’ve got 80 at the moment with plans to open 1-20 stores per year.”
“North America is going very well,” said Mr Kirby. “We’re looking at 700-800 stores in the US in the extreme long term and we’ve got 80 at the moment with plans to open 1-20 stores per year.”
Thats about as likely as my plan to own a pet dinosaur.
Games Workshop has lost its chief executive as the miniature model maker was boosted by brisk sales of toy soldiers in the US.
The company said Tom Kirby, Games Workshop’s chairman, would replace Mark Wells as acting chief executive until a permanent replacement is found.
Mr Wells spent five years at the company, whose recent robust sales of model orks, elves, ogres and wizards have helped it weather the consumer spending downturn relatively well.
“We discussed this for a while and Mark preferred a clean break,” said Mr Kirby, who added he would be in the job for at least a year until an internal candidate is found.
The departure comes as Games Workshop reported revenues of £67.4m in the six months to December 2, up from £62.7m during the same period in 2011, bolstered by increasing sales to American teenagers attracted to its fantasy world.
Pre-tax profits increased from £9.4m to £11m, while diluted earnings per share rose from 21.8p to 25.4p. The company announced an interim dividend of 18p a share, unchanged from last year.
The performance is a far cry from the beginning of 2011 when the City raised questions about Games Workshop’s long-term viability – particularly in the face of the strength of online gaming – after difficult trading conditions forced it to issue a profit warning.
However, in the company’s 2012 annual report Mr Kirby said the release of electronic games consoles such as the Nintendo Wii and Xbox 360 had a negligible impact on the group’s toys.
Last July the company reported full-year pre-tax profits of £19.5m, up 27 per cent, and raised its full-year dividend 40 per cent year on year.
The company, which opened its first shop in Shanghai in 2011, is targeting geographic expansion in Asia, continental Europe, the US and Australia.
“Wherever we go in the world we can usually find people who want to play with toy soldiers,” said Mr Kirby. “The cultural differences aren’t so important . . . teenage boys tend to like the same kind of things and toy soldiers fall into one of those universal categories.”
However, the North American market, where interim sales rose by £2.5m to £17.9m during the first half, has emerged as a particular focus.
“North America is going very well,” said Mr Kirby. “We’re looking at 700-800 stores in the US in the extreme long term and we’ve got 80 at the moment with plans to open 1-20 stores per year.”
Games Workshop shares closed unchanged at 660p.
I love how this sounds like the company is doing great but whoever is writing it clearly knows nothing about the hobby (constantly referring to them as Toys) as the whole and is basing their info of the same information that is being handed over to shareholders, which is being of course biased and ignores dwindling sales/the rise in popularity of other companies/how bad the hobbit is doing/etc.
Palindrome wrote: a slow steady decline leading to an eventual collapse/buy out is the most common prediction.
The evidence for which is a growing revenue, growing profits and growing margins.
I don't get why people who don't like GW seem intent on predicting their imminant demise. I hate Apple with a passion, I hate everything they make and I especially hate Steve Jobs (lol). But I can't see them going anywhere any time soon, even though they ran out of ideas about 4 years ago.
Actually, their revenue has been rather flat for the past several years. Their margins and profits have grown largely due to downsizing their fixed costs as much as possible from their stores. They've cut costs as much as they can, all they have left is profit per widget which, despite the highly illogical ramblings of many people on this forum, is still subject to supply and demand and as such pushes people away as the price rises.
More than that - this interim report doesn't even show growing profits. It shows some change year over year - but they aren't comparing the same period in both years. In 2011, Thanksgiving fell on the 24th of November and the 25th started the Christmas shopping season...3 days worth. In 2012, Thanksgiving fell on the 22nd of November...11 days worth of Christmas Shopping. Why does that matter?
The Christmas Shopping period in the US accounts for as much as 34% of retail sales for non-essential retail goods (excludes clothing and food). The absolute lowest on the list generates 14% of their annual sales in the period between Thanksgiving and Christmas (which if you do the math - would still be much higher than a simple even split of sales per month). GW is probably less than the highest, but probably not by too much. They are a toy store in the end after all. The addition of a week from that one month or so period which probably accounts for say 20% of their annual sales would likely be enough to account for a large portion of the 7% change year over year.
They no doubt have probably seen some increase - it would be hard not to. The digital products rollout, 6th Edition, Hobbit preorders should have all been on this 6 month period. A one handed monkey should have managed to put up these numbers.
Actually, their revenue has been rather flat for the past several years. Their margins and profits have grown largely due to downsizing their fixed costs as much as possible from their stores. They've cut costs as much as they can, all they have left is profit per widget which, despite the highly illogical ramblings of many people on this forum, is still subject to supply and demand and as such pushes people away as the price rises.
Its not that GW goods don't follow supply and demand; its that the supply and demand graphs you learn in ECON101 are very simplified and ignore a few important points: lock-in and network effects.
1) GW products lock in veterans. There is a large amount on money and time sunk into the product, which has a comparatively low resale value. It is much easier to continue to buy 1-2 units when needed, than to start an entirely new army.
2) Network effects are very important for wargames; the value of a game is proportional to the number of people playing the game squared. In other words, Dystopian Wars is worth *nothing* to me because no-one in my area plays it, but 40k is worth *a lot* because every single person at my games club has at least one army.
Case in point: when the 'embargo' to Australia came into effect, most people at my games club took up different games which were cheaper. The problem was that everyone took up different games. We had 3 Warmahordes players, 4 Malifaux, 2 Firestorm Armada, 3 Dust Warfare... and after about 6 months of this, we all started bringing our 40k armies to the club again. Even though we wanted to switch, we couldn't without a concerted and directed effort by multiple people at a time.
... that being said your post is mostly correct; GW is cutting costs without significant increases in sales volumes (though GW does seem to be keeping on and on squeezing and still getting savings long after I thought it would have been wrung dry) .
There are counter points to that though...well, not so much counter points - but additional factors which work against GW in the long term.
The veteran lock in does exist to some extent - however, when that veteran cracks...they generally are more vocal against the products then, say a veteran who played D&D for years and felt wronged by changes done by WotC. Because they have more invested, the level of "hatred" (not really the right word...but it is the best word I could think of this early) which they have towards GW is much higher. As a result, they are more likely to actively work against GW.
The network effect is also true - only so far as they maintain it though. Because of the higher entry costs - GW games have been falling in popularity for the past decade or so in the US. Similarly, the supply network is also important. In the US, that is primarily through your independent game stores. The article above mentions that GW wants to open 700-800 new stores in North America (I would guess the majority in the US). Many independent store owners will see that as a shot across the bow, and my well look at actively working against GW as well in order to maintain their livelihood. Without the stores, GW will have a hard time maintaining the player network. They don't have the capital to do a full rollout of stores across the country to make up for a dramatic drop in retailers.
The network effect is also true - only so far as they maintain it though. Because of the higher entry costs - GW games have been falling in popularity for the past decade or so in the US. Similarly, the supply network is also important. In the US, that is primarily through your independent game stores. The article above mentions that GW wants to open 700-800 new stores in North America (I would guess the majority in the US). Many independent store owners will see that as a shot across the bow, and my well look at actively working against GW as well in order to maintain their livelihood. Without the stores, GW will have a hard time maintaining the player network. They don't have the capital to do a full rollout of stores across the country to make up for a dramatic drop in retailers.
ImhoGw is not that large to get 700 stores in the US. Think Everybody has forgotten their initial store launches back in 03 and since then the amount of stores have relatively been the same, just in different areas in the US. GW stores are generally affected by their leases, which they move on to another locale after a certain amount of time (generally 3 to 5 years) depending on the leases.
As people make fun over the years about Mark Wells, I think the last laugh will be from him. I don't have any animosity towards the man. He is definitely not a bad CEO compared to some I have dealt with through the years. He did his job according to Kirby's edicts and he will be compensated for it. I also think he will land another position sometime soon.
I seriously don't get some people's reasoning. You're shown a legal report showing increased profit in a company and somehow predict the company's going to just keel over any day now.
As for expansion in the US. I live in Oklahoma and they finally opened their first store in Oklahoma City; if there's a store in this backwater then their expansions strategy must be to become as widespread as possible.
I seriously don't get some people's reasoning. You're shown a legal report showing increased profit in a company and somehow predict the company's going to just keel over any day now.
Which as been viewed by those who have a financial/business background that are in the hobby.
Now just think. Without paying Mark Wells his monthly income GW has already made a monthly profit.
Which as been viewed by those who have a financial/business background that are in the hobby.
And contradicted by other people with a financial/business background (if we're pretending for a moment that this argument from authority has any weight).
What is it about hating GW that warps the logic part of peoples' brains?
The key here is that prices go up by between 5-10% per annum while GW's revenues have traditionally stayed fairly flat, therefore their total sales have been falling.
I haven't seen any detailed anlysis of their current results yet so I'm not sure if this year will be any different. GW is quite keen on creative accounting though so its entirely possible that the numbers quoted don't tell the whole story.
I seriously don't get some people's reasoning. You're shown a legal report showing increased profit in a company and somehow predict the company's going to just keel over any day now.
Which as been viewed by those who have a financial/business background that are in the hobby.
Now just think. Without paying Mark Wells his monthly income GW has already made a monthly profit.
Brilliant!
Meh. Works for me, I keep getting dividends so I'm not going to complain. I've held stock for about 4 years now and the value keeps going up (generally speaking), as an investor that's what I care about.
i'm not sure what this mean, as i am only a year into the hobby. Hopefully we get someone that is interested in writing clearer rules though, i guess, I'm pretty sure that has nothing to do with CEO though.
What is it about hating GW that warps the logic part of peoples' brains?
The key here is that prices go up by between 5-10% per annum while GW's revenues have traditionally stayed fairly flat, therefore their total sales have been falling.
Prices weighted by what people actually buy didn't go up anything like 7.7%.
Well, there must be some kind of turnover point where the price increases and decreasing sales meet. Then GW will eventually change its business plan. But until then, we will see no changes.
From a lot of accounts, the Hobbit is not selling too well. Once we have some better understanding of this, I am curious to see the impact, if there is any, on GW.
I think the big question with the Hobbit is not so much is it selling as well as LotR during the boom years
(it's clearly not)
but whether it's selling well enough to pay for the licence and bring GW a tidy profit. If it's failing to do that they probably will change things up (I doubt if the CAN drop it, my bet is the contract ties them if for all 3 films). If it is they'll leave it as it is.
OrlandotheTechnicoloured wrote: I think the big question with the Hobbit is not so much is it selling as well as LotR during the boom years
(it's clearly not)
but whether it's selling well enough to pay for the licence and bring GW a tidy profit. If it's failing to do that they probably will change things up (I doubt if the CAN drop it, my bet is the contract ties them if for all 3 films). If it is they'll leave it as it is.
Can't they just call it a "specialist game" and put minimal effort into it if sales are truly as bad as they seem?
What is it about hating GW that warps the logic part of peoples' brains?
And as someone before pointed out, Xmas shopping started earlier this year. Also, a change from the previous 6 months, rather than a full fiscal year. And what happened in the last 6 months? A required $60-$100 investment from everyone who wanted to play 40k with drastic changes to core functions encouraging additional spending to fix armies. That's not going to happen every 6 months much less every year. So if you would like to continue to insult people, I'd suggest you come up with a better argument.
OrlandotheTechnicoloured wrote: I think the big question with the Hobbit is not so much is it selling as well as LotR during the boom years
(it's clearly not)
but whether it's selling well enough to pay for the licence and bring GW a tidy profit. If it's failing to do that they probably will change things up (I doubt if the CAN drop it, my bet is the contract ties them if for all 3 films). If it is they'll leave it as it is.
Can't they just call it a "specialist game" and put minimal effort into it if sales are truly as bad as they seem?
No, I think not as the Licence cost them a LOT so they need to make the money back.
The company added that a further risk was not having enough managers who understood its niche business model and who were aligned with its values and behaviours. However, it said that the risk was being mitigated by the recruitment of people who fitted in with the "Games Workshop culture".
In blunt wording in what I believe this means:
You current managers who do not tote the line. You will be terminated and some other person will get your job. We need people who are aligned with our core values and behaviors to run our one man stores.
Another snippet.
"The hobby is healthy and the challenge is to stay focused on what needs to be done to grow it efficiently and cost effectively. The principal risks and uncertainties for the rest of the financial year are sales related and our businesses are focused on achieving growth whilst the product and supply chain will continue to implement plans to maintain gross margin."
In blunt wording in what I believe this means:
We will continue our revenue streaming process that was implemented back in 2010. We will slowly take control of all manners of the product supply away from the LFGS by having restrictions on what they can and can not sell and/or delay certain products that our GW stores will get first. We do not truly care about the LFGS as we are going to continue to implement and fund our one man stores to insure that total product control is ours and ours only.
There can be variances from site to site and if there is, you can and gather data from it and come to your own conclusion. In my case I'm contented to know why the recruiter came in to this site now than a few years ago.
I feel as though several of the lyrics from Turisas' song "End of an Empire" are appropriate.
You look back in time
No-one heard the bells chime
You wonder how
How could they this allow?
Exactly the same
Are the questions aimed your way
When looking back on today
...
We've enslaved the world
We have slaughtered, we've burned
All, while knowing what is best
Might take a year or ten,
Generations of men,
We've passed the point of no return
...
Tough are times ahead
With care you tread
Before you know
Out we need to bow
Enjoy it while it lasts
Soon forgotten in the past
Our time here ended so fast
Open your eyes
Yourself apprise
All empires find their demise
The taller they are, the harder they fall
The snowball
Is on the roll
Open your eyes
Yourself apprise
New powers are on the rise
So strong is our faith, (in that) the world stays as is
Until it hits, like shattering glass to bits
How did this happen? How could this happen?
How could the empire fall?
o.t. They are a great band for gaming music, go google and check them out.
Adam LongWalker wrote: In blunt wording in what I believe this means:
We will continue our revenue streaming process that was implemented back in 2010. We will slowly take control of all manners of the product supply away from the LFGS by having restrictions on what they can and can not sell and/or delay certain products that our GW stores will get first. We do not truly care about the LFGS as we are going to continue to implement and fund our one man stores to insure that total product control is ours and ours only.
It is still a close kept secret, but GW ordered 1000 clone salesmen from Kamino with implanted high loyalty to GW, to man their one-man-stores and management (all except Tom Kirby). Normal humans are still too prone to rationality ("100€ for the Hobbit starter set and no advertising, that will never work!") and empathy for the customers, so have to be replaced at least once a year.
The problem is and always will be, caring only for the shareholders. Majority of the companies now days seem to forget that it takes normal people WITH jobs that can afford to buy their stuff, which in turn, allows them to buy their $1M yachts, get their $1.5M year end bonuses and support their mistresses off the side. So when they just keep raising the prices more and more to the point that most of their customer base wont/can't buy it and their sales plummet, they fire or ask for the CEO's resignation. They then get a new one in, prices fall as part of their "overhaul", once people are back on board and their sales are back up, their prices go back up aaaaaaand can you guys see where this if going?
I have no problem with them getting absurd salaries, but not when it is from the "what-gets-my-shareholders-lots-of-money-so-I-don't-get-fired" mindset.
Spawn of Satan a.k.a. Head of GW wrote:
“North America is going very well,” said Mr Kirby. “We’re looking at 700-800 stores in the US in the extreme long term and we’ve got 80 at the moment with plans to open 1-20 stores per year.”
Sooo...a GW at every corner?
Trying to recreate the British model in the US... Open a new GW store near every LGS who is selling a good amount of GW stuff and then cut off or otherwise hinder the sales of GW stuff at the LGS. Any marginal and semi-marginal LGSs will fold, leaving GW as the only games store in the area.
OrlandotheTechnicoloured wrote: I think the big question with the Hobbit is not so much is it selling as well as LotR during the boom years
(it's clearly not)
but whether it's selling well enough to pay for the licence and bring GW a tidy profit. If it's failing to do that they probably will change things up (I doubt if the CAN drop it, my bet is the contract ties them if for all 3 films). If it is they'll leave it as it is.
Can't they just call it a "specialist game" and put minimal effort into it if sales are truly as bad as they seem?
There is probably a minimum royalty amount that the HAVE to pay every year, so not supporting the game could hurt them badly moneywise.
Trying to recreate the British model in the US... Open a new GW store near every LGS who is selling a good amount of GW stuff and then cut off or otherwise hinder the sales of GW stuff at the LGS. Any marginal and semi-marginal LGSs will fold, leaving GW as the only games store in the area.
Well, I don't know how many game stores make their living solely on GW product; IIRC Magic accounts for a very significant portion of many game stores' income. Heck, my FLGS is also a comic book shop so a decent chunk of their income comes from that, and its Warmahordes community is probably bigger than its GW community, and its M:TG community is probably bigger than either.
GW's goal is probably GW stores being the only place you can get GW products, certainly, but all that would mean is that the indie stores (that survive, as I'm sure there are some who would be in deep trouble without 40K) just focusing more on Magic, other miniature games, RPGs, and board games.
As an aside, if they have 80 stores now, and let's say best case scenario for them (20 stores opening per year) they'll have reached their long term goal in 31 to 36 years.
timd wrote: Trying to recreate the British model in the US... Open a new GW store near every LGS who is selling a good amount of GW stuff and then cut off or otherwise hinder the sales of GW stuff at the LGS. Any marginal and semi-marginal LGSs will fold, leaving GW as the only games store in the area.
Good thing this doesn't work anymore. Not only is it easy enough to find a third party distributor, GW is definitely not the only game in town anymore, the prime reason it worked in the 90's. While there were other games, none has staying power. Now? There's at least half a dozen successful tabletop games a FLGS can carry and promote effectively.
Not to mention, GW is moving to one man stores with no gaming space if recent rumours are true. No more bunkers to game at. Which means people will inevitably move to those FLGS's anyway, and be exposed to more games.
700-800 stores?! Supposedly the prices keep going up now to help support those few failing retail stores that we already have, what's going to happen when they have literally hundreds more?
What is it about hating GW that warps the logic part of peoples' brains?
And as someone before pointed out, Xmas shopping started earlier this year. Also, a change from the previous 6 months, rather than a full fiscal year. And what happened in the last 6 months? A required $60-$100 investment from everyone who wanted to play 40k with drastic changes to core functions encouraging additional spending to fix armies. That's not going to happen every 6 months much less every year. So if you would like to continue to insult people, I'd suggest you come up with a better argument.
Life is a string of one-off events, bro.
That same six month period included preparing for the launch of the Hobbit, including the sculpts, the molds, production, shipping and marketing, also royalty payments. And the Dark Vengence box set almost definitely does not make a profit, so the only source of revenue from 6E is people who'll buy the hardback rulebook. Sure there were a few of these, but not enough to cover a 7.7% increase in revenue.
Sidstyler wrote: 700-800 stores?! Supposedly the prices keep going up now to help support those few failing retail stores that we already have, what's going to happen when they have literally hundreds more?
Well he's probably counting on 100,000s of new customers flocking to those stores. Hey, he can dream!
It sounds more like investor-speak. The 20 stores next year is far more realistic.
My question is, what is their intention for the regions they don't care about?
Ignoring the fact that brick and mortar retail space is, by and large, not very successful nowadays, especially if they have zero gaming space, but there's plenty of countries and regions GW has absolute minimal investment.
Considering here in Canada; most GW stores have closed, leaving usually one store per province; so, one store per 5-7 million people, and a geographic are larger than the entire UK.
So, if GW wants to keep making life difficult for independent retailers (they already are, with absolute minimal product availability; those xmas army packs, they had enough for 10% of the independent retailers to get one, and actually ordering product is difficult; GW doesn't provide product codes to retailers, they can only order by product name, which makes it slow, clunky, and often the wrong item gets shipped, among other things), they're only going to eliminate their own hobby, as every "marginal" region has higher prices direct from GW, higher thresholds for free shipping on their website, and extremely few actual stores; they're just making it difficult for people to buy their product.
It's nonsensical, and their effort on owning and operating their own stores might look good on paper, as their profit per sale is astronomically higher, their extremely limited capacity, horrible pricing structure, and unfriendly nature of the stores towards any actual gaming isn't going to do them any favors.
That same six month period included preparing for the launch of the Hobbit, including the sculpts, the molds, production, shipping and marketing, also royalty payments. And the Dark Vengence box set almost definitely does not make a profit, so the only source of revenue from 6E is people who'll buy the hardback rulebook. Sure there were a few of these, but not enough to cover a 7.7% increase in revenue.
Royalty payments would likely not be included in this report - well, not for the hobbit at least. For simplified accounting, those are generally dealt with monthly or quarterly. Any sales from the Hobbit would not see a royalty payment back to the movie studio till at least the end of December...though likely later than that.
Tooling is all done in house - those guys get paid if they are cutting molds for the Hobbit, Dark Vengeance or just doing normal operations. The metal costs are negligible, the tool time is amortized over the life of the tools. Dark Vengence is almost pure profit...as is everything else. Unlike a company like the Perry's or Mantic who use a contract company and have to pay extra to get work done - everything is already part of day to day operations for GW. Unless they took on extra shifts to ramp up production, it isn't an additional cost. However, consider that the change in "Product and Supply" was minor from 2011 to 2012 - I would guess that they didn't take on any additional shifts, though no doubt it does account for things like printing the new rule books and getting out the various new product lines like Dark Vengeance and the Hobbit related products which would not have been part of the normal cycle.
Then of course you have the digital sales - again, pure profit.
The 7.7% profit though could actually be handled just in the added week of sales. If you compare other retail sales figures which are available, one week of Christmas sales would be worth roughly 5% of the sales for the year...assuming the sales are spread out somewhat evenly over the course of the whole Christmas shopping season. However, there tend to be significantly more sales in that first week of the season than during the rest - so...yep, 7.7% without a problem. They acknowledge that it has an impact in Note 12 of their report (though they don't actually detail what that means to the underlying numbers).
You also have the capital commitments - £2,356,000 which were not paid and £729,000 for the previous year - so there are a lot of debts for the year which haven't been paid off yet...more than 3 times the previous years period. Likely that is where you will find some of the things like royalties as well as various other expenses like material orders and property leases.
While there are a lot of one off events - there is also a need to compare comparable things. Just because of the change on the calender from this year to last year - you should see a significant jump. Other things, like Codex releases or new rule versions, will produce a regular wave effect. Because they always happen to one degree or another - they are comparable year over year. The Hobbit though - that isn't really comparable...though it might help out for a few years, eventually it will likely pop just like the LotR did, so it can not be discounted as sales from it are not sustainable.
What is it about hating GW that warps the logic part of peoples' brains?
And as someone before pointed out, Xmas shopping started earlier this year. Also, a change from the previous 6 months, rather than a full fiscal year. And what happened in the last 6 months? A required $60-$100 investment from everyone who wanted to play 40k with drastic changes to core functions encouraging additional spending to fix armies. That's not going to happen every 6 months much less every year. So if you would like to continue to insult people, I'd suggest you come up with a better argument.
Life is a string of one-off events, bro.
That same six month period included preparing for the launch of the Hobbit, including the sculpts, the molds, production, shipping and marketing, also royalty payments. And the Dark Vengence box set almost definitely does not make a profit, so the only source of revenue from 6E is people who'll buy the hardback rulebook. Sure there were a few of these, but not enough to cover a 7.7% increase in revenue.
Really? Dark Vengeance costs them all of maybe $10 to make. It's plastic, paper and cardboard, not gold, frankincense and myrrh. New molds, production and shipping (marketing? LOL) is pretty much a set cost for them at this point. It's not like they go through barren periods of not doing anything with their sculptors or design teams. But this is irrelevant as it would not affect revenue as revenue is total income. Dark Vengeance is madly popular among people who want a rulebook as they sell the armies or models they don't want to recoup losses. Add in all their limited edition items that they love doing so much now to create scarcity. Then add in full rulebooks. 6th ed was huge and alone could account for this rather large bump. If the Hobbit even piqued anyone's interest, it would have been a bump in revenue as LotR is pretty dead in most areas. If you prefer to write these off, then there's no point in arguing with you as you're just ignoring facts. They had big important releases that appealed to their ENTIRE fan base, not the one or two armies they would have released which are a percentage, they released a few "special edition" items to drive demand and they enjoyed a prolong Christmas shopping season. You are claiming they had increased revenue just because.
Really? Dark Vengeance costs them all of maybe $10 to make. It's plastic, paper and cardboard, not gold, frankincense and myrrh. New molds, production and shipping (marketing? LOL) is pretty much a set cost for them at this point. It's not like they go through barren periods of not doing anything with their sculptors or design teams. But this is irrelevant as it would not affect revenue as revenue is total income. Dark Vengeance is madly popular among people who want a rulebook as they sell the armies or models they don't want to recoup losses. Add in all their limited edition items that they love doing so much now to create scarcity. Then add in full rulebooks. 6th ed was huge and alone could account for this rather large bump. If the Hobbit even piqued anyone's interest, it would have been a bump in revenue as LotR is pretty dead in most areas. If you prefer to write these off, then there's no point in arguing with you as you're just ignoring facts. They had big important releases that appealed to their ENTIRE fan base, not the one or two armies they would have released which are a percentage, they released a few "special edition" items to drive demand and they enjoyed a prolong Christmas shopping season. You are claiming they had increased revenue just because.
Yea I agree with this as this is a pattern I have been seeing in my region.
However, during the same time period there was also a 1.4 mil pound savings due to cost cutting measures. Apply that to the profit base and the size of the profit coming from sales/royalities is not so high after all.
Again. I have no ill will Against Mark Wells. He did his job according to the Edicts coming from the Board the Directors, hence Kirby. He should be get his negotiated payment package and I hope he gets a lot for his work there.
TheContortionist wrote: i'm not sure what this mean, as i am only a year into the hobby. Hopefully we get someone that is interested in writing clearer rules though, i guess, I'm pretty sure that has nothing to do with CEO though.
These blathering topics are a joke. I have gamed gw since 1989 and for years you see these in depth market research omg ceo blah blah blah threads....
It is a game. Get some minis, paint em, play....end o story.
Dont drink the koolaid or go down the rabbit hole....
Imagine people freakin out about their airline tickets when they hear stock for the airline took a dip..... it boggles da mind some gamers hobbyists get this friggin derp into the menutia of a game (company) when they are not eve9n on the board or an employee....
MajorTom11 wrote: Get back on topic guys and enough with the jokes. Next one posting spammy and/or banal ridiculousness get's dinged.
Not sure if that was aimed at me at all so I'll go explain why I posted the Turisas lyrics. My point was: Often, when you have the fall of a dominant power, what sets that power on the path to decline may often be not really noted while it happens, and it is only seen as such in retropect. It may be a while, but I think that GW has it that point this last year. There was a report that said wargaming as a whole was up ~%20 (couldn't find it via Google, if anyone here remembers the discussion about it, either here or on TMP, please share the link) while GW certainly hasn't experienced that growth in sales volume, which means they are losing market share, and I believe they will continue to do so for the forseeable future. Now I don't think they will disappear entirely, or even stop being a major player. However, I don't feel they will remain the undisputed leader, and without changing the way they operate, may even fall out of the top 5.
I should have posted it with the lyrics but was at the airport so didn't have the time.
I just wanted to hop in and share some anecdotal evidence about veterans and being locked in. I have 4 large 40k armies, and haven't bought a new GW kit since Blood Angels came out. I got tired of the prices, and first switched to using counts as models (a 3000 point WHFB chaos list with about 19 GW models in it) and then just started playing Hordes. Over the past 5 years I have seen GW go from being the absolutely dominating game company in the 3 stores I played at to having a minority of players, with lots of those switching being long time GW gamers.
All that to say I think the concept of lock in is over stated now. When you don't want to spend a few hundred bucks to buy the new codex and hot power models, you start just playing the same army over and over out of your current collection, all the while eyeing up all the new, shiny games others are playing. I think the lock in effect that GW used to rely on to keep people going is starting to look less like a cell and more like a freestanding door.
Wehrkind wrote: I just wanted to hop in and share some anecdotal evidence about veterans and being locked in. I have 4 large 40k armies, and haven't bought a new GW kit since Blood Angels came out. I got tired of the prices, and first switched to using counts as models (a 3000 point WHFB chaos list with about 19 GW models in it) and then just started playing Hordes. Over the past 5 years I have seen GW go from being the absolutely dominating game company in the 3 stores I played at to having a minority of players, with lots of those switching being long time GW gamers.
All that to say I think the concept of lock in is over stated now. When you don't want to spend a few hundred bucks to buy the new codex and hot power models, you start just playing the same army over and over out of your current collection, all the while eyeing up all the new, shiny games others are playing. I think the lock in effect that GW used to rely on to keep people going is starting to look less like a cell and more like a freestanding door.
I don't believe lock in is a permanent effect, but it increases the tolerance to the prices.
Wehrkind wrote: I just wanted to hop in and share some anecdotal evidence about veterans and being locked in. I have 4 large 40k armies, and haven't bought a new GW kit since Blood Angels came out. I got tired of the prices, and first switched to using counts as models (a 3000 point WHFB chaos list with about 19 GW models in it) and then just started playing Hordes. Over the past 5 years I have seen GW go from being the absolutely dominating game company in the 3 stores I played at to having a minority of players, with lots of those switching being long time GW gamers.
All that to say I think the concept of lock in is over stated now. When you don't want to spend a few hundred bucks to buy the new codex and hot power models, you start just playing the same army over and over out of your current collection, all the while eyeing up all the new, shiny games others are playing. I think the lock in effect that GW used to rely on to keep people going is starting to look less like a cell and more like a freestanding door.
I find the concept of 'lock in' due to being 'heavuly invested' kind of odd personally. If you've got a 4000pt GW army sitting there, what you don't need is more models from GW, or at least that army. It's not costing you money having them sit there.
Going and dropping $100 on a complete Malifaux or Infinity or Mercs 'army' and the rulebook isn't hurting your GW collection in the slightest (well, maybe you'll buy one less squad you don't even need because you have 4000pts sitting there). And if you decide to grab a game of Malifaux/Infinity/Mercs one day at the shop or with friends, then again, it doesn't cost you anything leaving your GW army at home.
'Lock in' due to being heavily invested simply feels like a made up excuse to not try new things.
Keep in mind what models GW is usually releasing (apart from a few updates of existing units, that are long overdue):
Fantasy: New units with über-rules that every competitive player should have (according to GW) plus big expensive monsters.
40k: New units with über-rules that every competitive player should have (according to GW) plus big expensive flyers.
Doesn't help to have 50 standard Space Marines plus 10 tanks, when you need 5 flyers to win tournaments.
Of course, as units are rarely tested by competitive players, GW often errs what competitive must-have units are, except for many flyers and ridiculously underpriced units.
Well having read all the posts it is clear that this strategy of cost efficiency doggedly stuck to by Kirby seems to be really what is killing GW. It has stagnated GW in market growth and has alienated a large swathe of it's userbase and this is pushing people to the competition.
The only way revenues are staying high is by price increases, this has lead to the spiral effect we are now seeing with year on year price increases. This has been said before a million times on here but a GW change of attitude is most clearly needed.
So what needs to change? The company needs to put money back into their, selected for loyalty staff. A policy i'm not happy to here GW has. It needs to make sure that it's customers are put first and that it needs to realise until this is done chances are there will be no market growth and continued market loses.
If it is happy to see it's customer go to the competition then continue as you are.
Wehrkind wrote: I just wanted to hop in and share some anecdotal evidence about veterans and being locked in. I have 4 large 40k armies, and haven't bought a new GW kit since Blood Angels came out. I got tired of the prices, and first switched to using counts as models (a 3000 point WHFB chaos list with about 19 GW models in it) and then just started playing Hordes. Over the past 5 years I have seen GW go from being the absolutely dominating game company in the 3 stores I played at to having a minority of players, with lots of those switching being long time GW gamers.
All that to say I think the concept of lock in is over stated now. When you don't want to spend a few hundred bucks to buy the new codex and hot power models, you start just playing the same army over and over out of your current collection, all the while eyeing up all the new, shiny games others are playing. I think the lock in effect that GW used to rely on to keep people going is starting to look less like a cell and more like a freestanding door.
I find the concept of 'lock in' due to being 'heavuly invested' kind of odd personally. If you've got a 4000pt GW army sitting there, what you don't need is more models from GW, or at least that army. It's not costing you money having them sit there.
Going and dropping $100 on a complete Malifaux or Infinity or Mercs 'army' and the rulebook isn't hurting your GW collection in the slightest (well, maybe you'll buy one less squad you don't even need because you have 4000pts sitting there). And if you decide to grab a game of Malifaux/Infinity/Mercs one day at the shop or with friends, then again, it doesn't cost you anything leaving your GW army at home.
'Lock in' due to being heavily invested simply feels like a made up excuse to not try new things.
Well let's put it this way: You had that 4k army. Then 6th hits. Flyers are now the big thing. You get a flyer released for your army. You feel in order to stay competitive you need at least one if not two. You figure that it's only $50 or what ever, it's marginal to keep your army good. After all you've already spent $1000 what's a little more gonna do? People go through this thought process regardless of factors. It's a mental trap we often fall into that has been explored by psychologists. A psych friend explained it to me and I can't remember the name of it.
Kroothawk wrote: Keep in mind what models GW is usually releasing (apart from a few updates of existing units, that are long overdue):
Fantasy: New units with über-rules that every competitive player should have (according to GW) plus big expensive monsters. 40k: New units with über-rules that every competitive player should have (according to GW) plus big expensive flyers.
Doesn't help to have 50 standard Space Marines plus 10 tanks, when you need 5 flyers to win tournaments. Of course, as units are rarely tested by competitive players, GW often errs what competitive must-have units are, except for many flyers and ridiculously underpriced units.
Avoiding the usual internet hyperbole - GW releasing only new kits doesn't mean you can't expand into other games. The opposite in fact.
Using my example of a 4k point army, on an edition change, you'll only be buying a few new units to stay 'competitive'. Last edition, you would have bought a few tanks. This edition, a flyer or two.
Then you have approximately a 4 year wait until when you will be buying the next new releases. Even with multiple armies, you'll usually only be buying 3-4 kits every year if you've got huge armies already (and thus are 'heavily invested'). Not to mention that while people like to play the hate game and spout that every new release is absolutely 356% essential to remaining competitive with a new codex, the reality is very few new kits are must haves (Grey Knights, Dark Eldar and Necrons are exceptions since the entire list for them was revamped).
Basically, 'heavily invested' means you should have ample opportunity to expand into another game, compared to someone who is only just getting started whose next purchases are going to definitely be GW products as they're still building their core army.
Wehrkind wrote: I just wanted to hop in and share some anecdotal evidence about veterans and being locked in. I have 4 large 40k armies, and haven't bought a new GW kit since Blood Angels came out. I got tired of the prices, and first switched to using counts as models (a 3000 point WHFB chaos list with about 19 GW models in it) and then just started playing Hordes. Over the past 5 years I have seen GW go from being the absolutely dominating game company in the 3 stores I played at to having a minority of players, with lots of those switching being long time GW gamers.
All that to say I think the concept of lock in is over stated now. When you don't want to spend a few hundred bucks to buy the new codex and hot power models, you start just playing the same army over and over out of your current collection, all the while eyeing up all the new, shiny games others are playing. I think the lock in effect that GW used to rely on to keep people going is starting to look less like a cell and more like a freestanding door.
I find the concept of 'lock in' due to being 'heavuly invested' kind of odd personally. If you've got a 4000pt GW army sitting there, what you don't need is more models from GW, or at least that army. It's not costing you money having them sit there.
Going and dropping $100 on a complete Malifaux or Infinity or Mercs 'army' and the rulebook isn't hurting your GW collection in the slightest (well, maybe you'll buy one less squad you don't even need because you have 4000pts sitting there). And if you decide to grab a game of Malifaux/Infinity/Mercs one day at the shop or with friends, then again, it doesn't cost you anything leaving your GW army at home.
'Lock in' due to being heavily invested simply feels like a made up excuse to not try new things.
Well let's put it this way: You had that 4k army. Then 6th hits. Flyers are now the big thing. You get a flyer released for your army. You feel in order to stay competitive you need at least one if not two. You figure that it's only $50 or what ever, it's marginal to keep your army good. After all you've already spent $1000 what's a little more gonna do? People go through this thought process regardless of factors. It's a mental trap we often fall into that has been explored by psychologists. A psych friend explained it to me and I can't remember the name of it.
So buying two kits every 4 years is an inhibition to trying something new?
Again - if you have that huge army, you're not buying much anymore. Even with a new codex, unless GW decides to redo everything like Dark Eldar or Necrons. Which they've said they won't be doing anymore anyway (and they don't need to, as they were the last of 40k's old armies).
I agree there's a psycological aspect to it, but I really just don't get it. I don't look at people playing Hordes and think 'man, I might buy a $90 Harpy in a year when GW finally release one, I better not try another game'.
Wehrkind wrote: I just wanted to hop in and share some anecdotal evidence about veterans and being locked in. I have 4 large 40k armies, and haven't bought a new GW kit since Blood Angels came out. I got tired of the prices, and first switched to using counts as models (a 3000 point WHFB chaos list with about 19 GW models in it) and then just started playing Hordes. Over the past 5 years I have seen GW go from being the absolutely dominating game company in the 3 stores I played at to having a minority of players, with lots of those switching being long time GW gamers.
All that to say I think the concept of lock in is over stated now. When you don't want to spend a few hundred bucks to buy the new codex and hot power models, you start just playing the same army over and over out of your current collection, all the while eyeing up all the new, shiny games others are playing. I think the lock in effect that GW used to rely on to keep people going is starting to look less like a cell and more like a freestanding door.
I find the concept of 'lock in' due to being 'heavuly invested' kind of odd personally. If you've got a 4000pt GW army sitting there, what you don't need is more models from GW, or at least that army. It's not costing you money having them sit there.
Going and dropping $100 on a complete Malifaux or Infinity or Mercs 'army' and the rulebook isn't hurting your GW collection in the slightest (well, maybe you'll buy one less squad you don't even need because you have 4000pts sitting there). And if you decide to grab a game of Malifaux/Infinity/Mercs one day at the shop or with friends, then again, it doesn't cost you anything leaving your GW army at home.
'Lock in' due to being heavily invested simply feels like a made up excuse to not try new things.
Well let's put it this way: You had that 4k army. Then 6th hits. Flyers are now the big thing. You get a flyer released for your army. You feel in order to stay competitive you need at least one if not two. You figure that it's only $50 or what ever, it's marginal to keep your army good. After all you've already spent $1000 what's a little more gonna do? People go through this thought process regardless of factors. It's a mental trap we often fall into that has been explored by psychologists. A psych friend explained it to me and I can't remember the name of it.
So buying two kits every 4 years is an inhibition to trying something new?
Again - if you have that huge army, you're not buying much anymore. Even with a new codex, unless GW decides to redo everything like Dark Eldar or Necrons. Which they've said they won't be doing anymore anyway (and they don't need to, as they were the last of 40k's old armies).
I agree there's a psycological aspect to it, but I really just don't get it. I don't look at people playing Hordes and think 'man, I might buy a $90 Harpy in a year when GW finally release one, I better not try another game'.
Thank you holycow!
It's not every 4 years though. Say land speeders become the in thing, 30 bucks a pop you tell yourself it's not that much. Bike armies are new hat, you figure two ravenwing battleboxes should be enough, not that much right? You want a dreadnaught spammy army, a tech marine and a few more dread kits and you'll be set. It isn't logical because people have logical fallacies. It isn't "I'm not starting hordes because" it's "I should buy these because"
Sean_OBrien wrote: Keep in mind when comparing this years 6 month period to last years 6 month period...last year did not include the "Black Friday" weekend and subsequent "Cyber Monday" which are historically very large retail days in the US (and I would think with Christmas being a somewhat global thing - a tick up in toy sales for the rest of the world as well).
5 days of sales during the Christmas season would likely well and good account for the whole of the difference between last years numbers and this years numbers.
GW has stated Christmas is a double-month for them, and doesn't make their year.
RiTides wrote: It's hard to grasp how much some things have increased with the general numbers, so let me show you guys a picture
On the left is the old Orc boyz box, before the new army book came out. There are 20 in the box, and the price is hard to read in the photo, but it is $35. That makes it $1.75 per model, which is somewhat reasonable given that you can get it on sale, but you need a Lot of these models.
On the right is the new Orc boyz box. It looks a little thinner, right? And hey, it's cheaper, too! But it turns out there are only 10 in the box now, for $29. That makes it $2.90 per model.
Going from $1.75 per model to $2.90 per model is a 66% price increase. And this is on the main core unit of the army, which you need a Lot of to play, the sculpt of which has not changed in a long time.
This is why almost every Orcs & Goblins player I see is a legacy player- either they've been playing forever, or they got their army used from someone who had been. GW has literally priced themselves out of having anyone but a very Tiny fraction of people start a new Orcs & Goblins army. A smarter long-term business move would be to keep the core of the army cheap, to lure players in, and cash in when they want to buy the more exotic/expensive units.
I think Mark Wells has seen that things are not good, and The Hobbit is not going to buoy them as much as they thought (note the stack of boxes in the picture although these are LOTR I believe, The Hobbit is still upfront, gathering dust in a different part of the store) and it was a good time to jump ship.
I agree. The cost to start a Warhammer army is astronomical, and I don't think The Hobbit did what it needed to do. Some places are already blowing it out at 25% off.
noneoftheabove0 wrote: I hate to be the one to bring this up, but despite the endless predictions of hellfire and brimstone, I don't think GW is going to crash and burn. The problem is, for most people, this hobby is a small addiction. I'm not saying I'd be buying my kits from a pusher in the alley behind the library, but it's not far off from that. The prices will go up, but I feel many of us, myself included, will whine and moan but would eventually just open our wallets up a little bit further. And I think they know that.
Howard A Treesong wrote: oh, conspiracy theory time! Rat leaving a sinking ship or pushed out by Kirby in a power struggle? Maybe Wells has seen the sales figures for The Hobbit and has decided to go before the next quarter's financials are published.
There might not be much to this story, people move from one company to another all the time, maybe he just had a better offer. Anyway, I doubt this will make a great difference to the customer.
Kirby was brought in by Bryan Ansell when he bought out Steve Jackson back in the mid 80's. Kirby bought out Bryan Ansell back in the late 80's/early 90's and took GW public. Kirby heading to the US may have signaled Wells trying to relegate/oust Kirby in turn. Possibility board/ major shareholders were not happy with Well's direction/decisions. Given the Hobbit release does not factor into these numbers, but are know by GW, may be the real reason for his departure. Failure of a very anticipated product is normally grounds for upper management to fall in its sword.
Interesting theory. I liked The Hobbit, and thought it was all great stuff, it's just the startup costs were far too much to seriously consider. The Reaper kickstarter got my money.
ironicsilence wrote: the timing does seem odd for someone to buy 17% voting rights in the company
A fan-led takeover, brilliant! I imaging hordes of sweaty cheetoh-stained neckbeards furiously writing letters to management as we speak...
Tom Kirby wrote:“We discussed this for a while and Mark preferred a clean break,” said Mr Kirby, who added he would be in the job for at least a year until an internal candidate is found.
Who could've guessed it!
Also...
Spawn of Satan a.k.a. Head of GW wrote:
“North America is going very well,” said Mr Kirby. “We’re looking at 700-800 stores in the US in the extreme long term and we’ve got 80 at the moment with plans to open 1-20 stores per year.”
Sooo...a GW at every corner?
That's the European model, which hasn't worked in the US so far, for 20+ years now. Many people say their marriage to an antiquated retail chain is what drags them down, but GW seems quite happy with it.
Kroothawk wrote: I think, with 40€ Codices, DA prices and the Hobbit fiasco, we are just experiencing this tipping point.
I have to agree. I skipped out on both the CSM and DA codeciis, evn though I bought Dark Vengeance and wanted to start both. The start-up costs were just too much. I'm "locked-in" but apparently not buying....
TedNugent wrote: Pretty clear indication what Wells' business model was - short term gains, short term profit, looks good on a resume, see you later guys.
He's been going on about selling the company for a while now. Changing jobs though, that's new. Maybe he was shopping around his resume, the entire time...
Sean_OBrien wrote: Keep in mind when comparing this years 6 month period to last years 6 month period...last year did not include the "Black Friday" weekend and subsequent "Cyber Monday" which are historically very large retail days in the US (and I would think with Christmas being a somewhat global thing - a tick up in toy sales for the rest of the world as well).
5 days of sales during the Christmas season would likely well and good account for the whole of the difference between last years numbers and this years numbers.
GW has stated Christmas is a double-month for them, and doesn't make their year.
Taking them at their word...
Christmas = 2 x average month = 15.38% of the yearly sales.
This year has roughly one third of the Christmas season on the books for the 6 month period - so roughly an extra 5% over last years 6 month period. That would mean that you just have to find 2% or so between things like the Hobbit. That would also assume a mostly even split across the whole season as opposed to being weighted towards the front with Black Friday and Cyber Monday (plus other factors which tend to shift the sales towards the beginning of the season as opposed to the end).
So - yes, largely my conclusions still hold. They were never about "making their year" just a statement of how the change in calender reporting would impact the 6 month periods.
I stopped buying GW models a few years ago, but I kept buying every codex and army book that came out because I loved to read them and I have a shelf of like every codex and armybook. I have not bought a single hard cover one. It's over GW, I'm sorry.
While my Dark Angels will always remain my first Mini gaming love (and I'll probably continue to buy stuff for them), the idea of starting a Fantasy army was just beyond my wallet even though I've been really wanting to do one for a while.
Instead of buying from GW (or even the FLGS), I ended up taking advantage of the Mantic KoW kickstarter. I now have a massive Dwarf army and a Celestial army on the way. The Dwarves easily "count as" any possible GW force I could think of (even having a box of AoW Berserkers to count as Slayers). It wouldn't be an issue if GW didn't price itself out of my budget.
Spawn of Satan a.k.a. Head of GW wrote:
“North America is going very well,” said Mr Kirby. “We’re looking at 700-800 stores in the US in the extreme long term and we’ve got 80 at the moment with plans to open 1-20 stores per year.”
Heh that is kind of funny, since back in 03 they had close to 100 stores in the US. That was their "great launch". In a couple of years they lost the South as they could not make any money at the time.
And yes they will probably open at least 10 stores this year. After of course they close down 10 or so stores that they have saturated the area of their influence.
The one employee stores makes it very easy and relatively cheap for them to test the waters in a location. If they can find cheap rent, they can put in a store for quite a low investment and if it doesn't work out there, close it just as quickly.
When the current GW talks about opening stores, they are not the Games Workshop Hobby Centres of yester-year.
Spawn of Satan a.k.a. Head of GW wrote:
“North America is going very well,” said Mr Kirby. “We’re looking at 700-800 stores in the US in the extreme long term and we’ve got 80 at the moment with plans to open 1-20 stores per year.”
Heh that is kind of funny, since back in 03 they had close to 100 stores in the US. That was their "great launch". In a couple of years they lost the South as they could not make any money at the time.
And yes they will probably open at least 10 stores this year. After of course they close down 10 or so stores that they have saturated the area of their influence.
You mean like having eleven stores in the greater Chicago area, but nothing in say Ohio, a state that I have noted over the years has a high amount of hobby shops per capita. We see them expanding into many areas now that have been serviced by FLGS for over 35 years in some cases. In the south I think there were two GW "outlets" that were located one in Florida and one in Georgia, but they were both in high rent mall locations in upscale malls.
I would think that there should be only one in each major city, unless traffic patterns or population density make it necessary to have more than one, but no more than two for any population center. FREX: 1 in NYC, 1 in Buffalo, 1 in Pittsburgh, 1 in Philly, 1 in Cleveland, Columbus, Cincinnatti, Louisville, Lexington, Ashland/Huntington, 2 in Atlanta (one north, one south) etc. Et al. Ad nauseum..
If they gave the job to me I could cover the whole US market in less than 70 stores, I would then use the savings in an aggressive print advertising campaign in every hobby, or "geek-centric" (yes even video game) magazine there is.
If they gave the job to me I could cover the whole US market in less than 70 stores, I would then use the savings in an aggressive print advertising campaign in every hobby, or "geek-centric" (yes even video game) magazine there is.
I bet you £100 every single person who picks up a nerdy magazine has heard of 40k. Chances are, they already have strong opinions on it. You'd waste the money on that "marketing" campaign and be hounded out of the job within 6 months.
If they gave the job to me I could cover the whole US market in less than 70 stores, I would then use the savings in an aggressive print advertising campaign in every hobby, or "geek-centric" (yes even video game) magazine there is.
I bet you £100 every single person who picks up a nerdy magazine has heard of 40k. Chances are, they already have strong opinions on it. You'd waste the money on that "marketing" campaign and be hounded out of the job within 6 months.
You vastly overestimate the awareness of GW. Most older model-type or gamer hobbyists will have at least heard of GW, but there will be many that know nothing about it, or about anything they've done recently (like The Hobbit - an advertising campaign in any geek related press would have had a huge impact on awareness). And then there's younger console gamers who may never have heard of GW.
In reference to the discussion about GW's management, Apocalypse 40k has reported the LA Battle Bunker is closing down and becoming a 1 man store with no game room. The old Manager has moved to the Memphis Battle Bunker. As long as FLGS or whatever you call them have a place to play GW will never be able to close them down. In my opinion.
If they gave the job to me I could cover the whole US market in less than 70 stores, I would then use the savings in an aggressive print advertising campaign in every hobby, or "geek-centric" (yes even video game) magazine there is.
I bet you £100 every single person who picks up a nerdy magazine has heard of 40k. Chances are, they already have strong opinions on it. You'd waste the money on that "marketing" campaign and be hounded out of the job within 6 months.
You vastly overestimate the awareness of GW. Most older model-type or gamer hobbyists will have at least heard of GW, but there will be many that know nothing about it, or about anything they've done recently (like The Hobbit - an advertising campaign in any geek related press would have had a huge impact on awareness). And then there's younger console gamers who may never have heard of GW.
Well in the UK any young nerd would certainly have heard of warhammer. Even most people who aren't nerds know what it is, if only because of their presence on every high street. And "younger console gamers" would like as not have played, or at least heard of, Space Marine.
The notion of warhammer being unheard of, I'm unfamiliar with. Maybe that's an American thing.
Wehrkind wrote: I just wanted to hop in and share some anecdotal evidence about veterans and being locked in. I have 4 large 40k armies, and haven't bought a new GW kit since Blood Angels came out. I got tired of the prices, and first switched to using counts as models (a 3000 point WHFB chaos list with about 19 GW models in it) and then just started playing Hordes. Over the past 5 years I have seen GW go from being the absolutely dominating game company in the 3 stores I played at to having a minority of players, with lots of those switching being long time GW gamers.
All that to say I think the concept of lock in is over stated now. When you don't want to spend a few hundred bucks to buy the new codex and hot power models, you start just playing the same army over and over out of your current collection, all the while eyeing up all the new, shiny games others are playing. I think the lock in effect that GW used to rely on to keep people going is starting to look less like a cell and more like a freestanding door.
I find the concept of 'lock in' due to being 'heavuly invested' kind of odd personally. If you've got a 4000pt GW army sitting there, what you don't need is more models from GW, or at least that army. It's not costing you money having them sit there.
Going and dropping $100 on a complete Malifaux or Infinity or Mercs 'army' and the rulebook isn't hurting your GW collection in the slightest (well, maybe you'll buy one less squad you don't even need because you have 4000pts sitting there). And if you decide to grab a game of Malifaux/Infinity/Mercs one day at the shop or with friends, then again, it doesn't cost you anything leaving your GW army at home.
'Lock in' due to being heavily invested simply feels like a made up excuse to not try new things.
Well let's put it this way: You had that 4k army. Then 6th hits. Flyers are now the big thing. You get a flyer released for your army. You feel in order to stay competitive you need at least one if not two. You figure that it's only $50 or what ever, it's marginal to keep your army good. After all you've already spent $1000 what's a little more gonna do? People go through this thought process regardless of factors. It's a mental trap we often fall into that has been explored by psychologists. A psych friend explained it to me and I can't remember the name of it.
So buying two kits every 4 years is an inhibition to trying something new?
Again - if you have that huge army, you're not buying much anymore. Even with a new codex, unless GW decides to redo everything like Dark Eldar or Necrons. Which they've said they won't be doing anymore anyway (and they don't need to, as they were the last of 40k's old armies).
I agree there's a psycological aspect to it, but I really just don't get it. I don't look at people playing Hordes and think 'man, I might buy a $90 Harpy in a year when GW finally release one, I better not try another game'.
Thank you holycow!
It's not every 4 years though. Say land speeders become the in thing, 30 bucks a pop you tell yourself it's not that much. Bike armies are new hat, you figure two ravenwing battleboxes should be enough, not that much right? You want a dreadnaught spammy army, a tech marine and a few more dread kits and you'll be set. It isn't logical because people have logical fallacies. It isn't "I'm not starting hordes because" it's "I should buy these because"
Actually, it is not the fallacy of sunk costs, but the opposite, getting sunk costs right. You already blew the previous 4000$, and you are not getting it back, so what's another 60$ now for a flyer? Of course you would be ignoring the opportunity costs of selling your stuff and investing heavily in coke and hookers.
As to buying the new hotness, when I was playing pretty seriously, I would get pretty pissed when the meta swung heavily away from the army I had bought, converted and painted. I do know some people who just reprimed their space marines and bought a new kit every codex, but I think the guys who really worked at their stuff didn't see a new codex as opening a new window of opportunity as much as closing your dick in a drawer while opening the curtains.
And maybe it was mostly just me and Salvage, but I think a lot of us did like playing the strange, no model exists yet and it isn't too good units, and just built our own or got some counts as. I think players like that are pretty hard pressed to turn in their custom built War Shrines for a kit when they come out 3 years later.
I always looked at it like "I have saved this much, how can I save more and get the best deal"
I hardly buy new (unless I simply can't find it used, say snotlings, or paint, and once in a blue moon a novel (the prices are the same compared to other novels
Well in the UK any young nerd would certainly have heard of warhammer. Even most people who aren't nerds know what it is, if only because of their presence on every high street. And "younger console gamers" would like as not have played, or at least heard of, Space Marine.
The notion of warhammer being unheard of, I'm unfamiliar with. Maybe that's an American thing.
I wouldn't bet on every young nerd to know enough about GW for there to be no benefit in advertising to them. All they might know is that there's some company that makes toys like the Spare Marines in the console game, or that it's that shop with the models in the window. I know most nerds my age (30) have heard of them, but when i was growing up you could by Warhammer 40K (2nd Ed) starter sets in Argos. Now you're unlikely to find out much about the games without seeking it out.
It appears that some people have been living in a cave for too long. The concept of "lock-in" is down right stupid. People who spent more than $1K on GW is fully capable of having money on other games. If you are the exceptions due to tight budget, you should try to make more money other than wasting your time here.
Time is a more important factor than money alone. If you play another game, you simply cannot play WH or 40K at the same time. How many evening and weekends can you spare?
I can't comment on teenagers in UK. In NA, they know LOTR but I rarely find them to have any interest in 40K or WHFB these days.
The concept of lock-in doesn't prevent you trying other games but it does keep you pumping some money back into that system as people want to keep their current investment up to date and playable. Think of your GW collection as a car, yes you can buy other cars but if you want to keep it usable then you will tax it, insure it and service it.
Bikeninja wrote: In reference to the discussion about GW's management, Apocalypse 40k has reported the LA Battle Bunker is closing down and becoming a 1 man store with no game room. The old Manager has moved to the Memphis Battle Bunker. As long as FLGS or whatever you call them have a place to play GW will never be able to close them down. In my opinion.
Oh wow, man, things are worse than I thought.
Hulksmash wrote: That's sad news about the LA Bunker. That store has been there for well over a decade.
Yeah, but honestly, they set up that store and The Block at Orange to siphon sales from Brookhurst Hobbies.
If you belive that I've got some ocean front property in Arizona to sell you.
I lived in SoCal till about 2 years ago. GW stores increase sales "if" the local store is smart and works with the store manager. Brookhurst is.....not a clean or organized place. Plenty of other stores have done just fine with GW stores locally.
GW opened the Block because it was at a highend outdoor mall that gave it tons of exposure to a clientelle who could afford to get into the game. This was done after the success of the Glendale Galleria store that had very similar circumstances (less the outdoor part). Can't speak to the Bunker but based on size, cost, metro area, and role that was probably an optimal location for them.
If you belive that I've got some ocean front property in Arizona to sell you.
I lived in SoCal till about 2 years ago. GW stores increase sales "if" the local store is smart and works with the store manager. Brookhurst is.....not a clean or organized place. Plenty of other stores have done just fine with GW stores locally.
GW opened the Block because it was at a highend outdoor mall that gave it tons of exposure to a clientelle who could afford to get into the game. This was done after the success of the Glendale Galleria store that had very similar circumstances (less the outdoor part). Can't speak to the Bunker but based on size, cost, metro area, and role that was probably an optimal location for them.
Then how come Brookhurst Hobbies is the only one to tell GW to take their policies and cram it, they discount at 20% off, all the time.
GWwill open a store next to you if you're successful enough.
Is everyone just magically forgetting that Mark Wells was just Tom Kirby's sock puppet? Tom Kirby has and always will be the main force behind GW's less than intelligent business decisions.
xraytango wrote: Is everyone just magically forgetting that Mark Wells was just Tom Kirby's sock puppet? Tom Kirby has and always will be the main force behind GW's less than intelligent business decisions.
NuggzTheNinja wrote: We should Kickstart DakkaDakka purchasing a sizeable chunk of GW. Just enough to fix the damn problems.
Considering fans blow $50 on a codex or a box of minis, expecting a $25-50 contribution from every fan...curious what that would net.
Won't work, people here and portent.com tended to want to complain about problems but won't put their money where their mouth is. I bought about 100 shares some 5 - 6 years ago for about $200 when the share price was just over $2. Now my investment is over $1000. It's done better than most of my other investments. If they can't afford the models, they can't afford to buy the stock. Unfortunately, you can't buy that at a discount unless you work for them and you invest in their ESOP then you may get a chance to buy it for a 10-20% discount.
The CEO stepping down and the chairmen taking over doesn't signal the end. Most Fortune 500 companies including the one I work at have both positions filled by the same person. GW is such a small company, I thought it was dumb they had the positions split. Kirby won't lose his job due to the fact he owns a substantial amount of GW. Hence the reason Bob from Bob's Plumbing won't lose his job. Unless the institutional investors vote to remove him, he will retire on his own time. It looked like there was some internal conflict between the CEO and the BOD. Hopefully this resolves and we can move past it. If all the commentary on this board was right, we'd only have PP to play because GW would have sunk years ago and we couldn't complain about them because GK wouldn't have been released, CH wouldn't have had a lawsuit because they wouldn't have ever made anything, deldar would still draw blood when you pick them up, and 4th edition would be the last version of the game.
Keep buying their stuff online, in store, or where ever because you indirectly support me and my dividends keep reinvesting so every year I get 1-3 more shares.
Keep buying their stuff online, in store, or where ever because you indirectly support me and my dividends keep reinvesting so every year I get 1-3 more shares.
Personally I buy all my GW stuff from ebay, most of which look like they were originally painted by on of the growing army of children who have almost certainly dropped GW altogether, and I don't buy anything new from online retailers or anywhere else. How does that help your dividends?
What you have seemingly failed to grasp is that a lot of people have put their money where their mouth is. The majority have moved away from GW altogether while a minority, like myself, use 3rd party miniatures or buy 2nd hand.
The level of complaints about GW, their price structure and their business practices is interesting. People only complain when they care. If they stop caring then they stop complaining and just move on.
So, is GW going away soon? Highly unlikely given the number of complainers out there.
It certainly true that there are thousands waiting to be GW's customers again. They're just waiting for a real reason to jump back in. I don't think GW will give them one though.
-Loki- wrote:Kirby is still on top. So it remains to be seen if it was in fact Wells making the bad desicions.
Kroothawk wrote:GW is now searching for a new strawman posing as a CEO under Tom Kirby
Sheck2 wrote:Hummm...what's the news here? We suspected Kirby never left and was always in control (status quo was maintained and will be maintained). And this confirmed it.
Senator Palpatine was behind Dooku...Dooku departs...who will become Anakin?
n0t_u wrote:One man company.
Harriticus wrote:Anyway there's a saying about changes in leadership on a national level. "Goodbye old boss, hello new boss, same as old boss". Sums up my opinion on this.
jonolikespie wrote:
xraytango wrote: Is everyone just magically forgetting that Mark Wells was just Tom Kirby's sock puppet? Tom Kirby has and always will be the main force behind GW's less than intelligent business decisions.
If you belive that I've got some ocean front property in Arizona to sell you.
I lived in SoCal till about 2 years ago. GW stores increase sales "if" the local store is smart and works with the store manager. Brookhurst is.....not a clean or organized place. Plenty of other stores have done just fine with GW stores locally.
GW opened the Block because it was at a highend outdoor mall that gave it tons of exposure to a clientelle who could afford to get into the game. This was done after the success of the Glendale Galleria store that had very similar circumstances (less the outdoor part). Can't speak to the Bunker but based on size, cost, metro area, and role that was probably an optimal location for them.
Then how come Brookhurst Hobbies is the only one to tell GW to take their policies and cram it, they discount at 20% off, all the time.
GWwill open a store next to you if you're successful enough.
And a ton of stores of sell GW at a standard 20% off. Online and offline. That's not tell GW to take their policies and cram it. That's competiing with online retailers which is a good thing to do if your volume makes up for the loss your taking on each individual product.
And as for opening next to you that doesn't happen to often. There wasn't major gaming store in Northridge when they opened that store. The "FLGS" in Ventura sold GW stuff but it wasn't a spectacular amount of it. I'm pretty sure there wasn't a FLGS locally in Ontario when they opened that store and we already discussed the reason for the Block at Orange opening. There wasn't a seller in Thousand Oaks when they put their new store in there and the same store that sold GW stuff in Ventura is still there and on the opposite side of town from the new GW 1-man they opened there.
Not sure about other Metros they had 10 years ago or more recently as I live in an area with no less than 6 and probably more FLGS that sell GW product and do pretty well with it. It also had one of the largest account holders in the country for several years before he decided to downgrade and move out of downtown. And shockingly, no store in all that time. They are talking about a 1-man store but it'll recruit and won't make a single dent in the local scene. It'll probably only help honestly.
Not sure if a GW store opened next to Mikhaila but he's certainly one of the largest accounts in the country for brick and mortar stores. I don't see him losing existing customers to a GW store.
If your a FLGS and you run a clean shop, give incentives, have gaming space, and are genuinely good at providing customer service a GW store can only benefit you. People don't move over to pay more and play with kids running around their feet if your running a proper business. If you're a whole in the wall that doesn't clean, refuses to take the long view, provide piss poor customer service, or your location is occupied by unchecked grognards then, yeah, a GW store might be a bad thing to have open next to you. And it's even sillier now as GW's are no longer providing gaming space so again, it's a win for local stores that a GW Manager can let people know there is a local store that provides tables to play at. But yeah, conspiracy theories and hating on GW are cool.
Keep buying their stuff online, in store, or where ever because you indirectly support me and my dividends keep reinvesting so every year I get 1-3 more shares.
Personally I buy all my GW stuff from ebay, most of which look like they were originally painted by on of the growing army of children who have almost certainly dropped GW altogether, and I don't buy anything new from online retailers or anywhere else. How does that help your dividends?
What you have seemingly failed to grasp is that a lot of people have put their money where their mouth is. The majority have moved away from GW altogether while a minority, like myself, use 3rd party miniatures or buy 2nd hand.
Thats fine - at one point in time it was purchased from GW. Personally, I don't care where you buy it as long as it isn't a recasting facility in China. If you go that route, I will just shake my finger at you.
Who is the majority you speak of? Is it the majority of Dakka Members? Are you looking at active members or is it the people that you talk to on a regular basis? Looking at their financial statements, it doesn't look like the majority of the players have moved on - it looks like there is some growth. Their financials show they are consistent. PWC signs off on them. That would indicate there isn't any funny accounting going on unless the Brits (who pretty much developed the double entry accounting system back in the day) don't have beefy policies about the issuing of financial statements. Heck its a hobby - if your hobby brings you that much angst and you feel the need to spout off about how much you dislike one of the larger players in the hobby, you may want to get another hobby. Its akin to me being a big time fan of UCF's football team and then going out and saying how much better my football team is compared to the New York Yankees baseball team because they are the devil and they buy their championships, have the biggest payroll, there is no cap, etc., etc., etc.(* Note I'm actually a Yankees fan when it comes to baseball for no reason other than it was the team I played on when I was in Little League some 20+ years ago since the Marlins didn't exist for most of my Little League career.) UCF Football has nothing to do with the game thats actually being played, has a completely different set of rules for recruitment (NCAA vs MLB), different balls, different number of players on the field, different tactics, etc. etc., etc. This is what I hear when I read these comments about PP vs GW or when people try to become investment analysts when GW puts out their annual statements or when there is a management change. Its not American 24 hour news channels that can repeat something and say its true because they get commentators on that agree with them. Until you've been an auditor or have undergone a financial audit by an international firm, you don't know how those statements are prepared and the level of detail the auditors kick around the different foot notes as well as the formatting for presenting and disclosing information. If you think profit is incremental because you just need to sell more of x to get profit then you absolutely have no idea how the real world works because its never that easy. Selling more its only the first half of the problem its dealing with the incremental costs and determining the most efficient way to do it. Pricing goods and services is very tough because you are trying to hit the sweet spot that maximizes your efforts. Thats what the car manufacturers thought in the 80s - if we automate we can reduce the cost of each unit substantially. Unfortunately, that didn't work. Same with making the stuff cheaper - you will only sell so many units to one person.
Done with my rant. Probably won't be back on here for a couple weeks since I've got CPE that needs to come first.
Keep buying their stuff online, in store, or where ever because you indirectly support me and my dividends keep reinvesting so every year I get 1-3 more shares.
Except they're not buying, prices have gone up while the customer base has dwindled and turnover has gone down. There's a point where GW won't have a usable customer base.
Same with me. I admit I bought Dark Angels, but I skipped out on buying both the Chaos andDA book, even though I was excited about both. Same with the models. I skipped out on buying a $50 dino-zord model and the prices of the new Deathwing Knights was just too much. I skipped out on buying The Hobbit altogether. Any further pruchases I make are going to be for D&D/d20
clively wrote: The level of complaints about GW, their price structure and their business practices is interesting. People only complain when they care. If they stop caring then they stop complaining and just move on.
So, is GW going away soon? Highly unlikely given the number of complainers out there.
People may stick around because they already have an army, but they may not buy a new one. That's something to be concerned about.
If you belive that I've got some ocean front property in Arizona to sell you.
I lived in SoCal till about 2 years ago. GW stores increase sales "if" the local store is smart and works with the store manager. Brookhurst is.....not a clean or organized place. Plenty of other stores have done just fine with GW stores locally.
GW opened the Block because it was at a highend outdoor mall that gave it tons of exposure to a clientelle who could afford to get into the game. This was done after the success of the Glendale Galleria store that had very similar circumstances (less the outdoor part). Can't speak to the Bunker but based on size, cost, metro area, and role that was probably an optimal location for them.
Then how come Brookhurst Hobbies is the only one to tell GW to take their policies and cram it, they discount at 20% off, all the time.
GWwill open a store next to you if you're successful enough.
And a ton of stores of sell GW at a standard 20% off. Online and offline. That's not tell GW to take their policies and cram it. That's competiing with online retailers which is a good thing to do if your volume makes up for the loss your taking on each individual product.
And as for opening next to you that doesn't happen to often. There wasn't major gaming store in Northridge when they opened that store. The "FLGS" in Ventura sold GW stuff but it wasn't a spectacular amount of it. I'm pretty sure there wasn't a FLGS locally in Ontario when they opened that store and we already discussed the reason for the Block at Orange opening. There wasn't a seller in Thousand Oaks when they put their new store in there and the same store that sold GW stuff in Ventura is still there and on the opposite side of town from the new GW 1-man they opened there.
Not sure about other Metros they had 10 years ago or more recently as I live in an area with no less than 6 and probably more FLGS that sell GW product and do pretty well with it. It also had one of the largest account holders in the country for several years before he decided to downgrade and move out of downtown. And shockingly, no store in all that time. They are talking about a 1-man store but it'll recruit and won't make a single dent in the local scene. It'll probably only help honestly.
Not sure if a GW store opened next to Mikhaila but he's certainly one of the largest accounts in the country for brick and mortar stores. I don't see him losing existing customers to a GW store.
If your a FLGS and you run a clean shop, give incentives, have gaming space, and are genuinely good at providing customer service a GW store can only benefit you. People don't move over to pay more and play with kids running around their feet if your running a proper business. If you're a whole in the wall that doesn't clean, refuses to take the long view, provide piss poor customer service, or your location is occupied by unchecked grognards then, yeah, a GW store might be a bad thing to have open next to you. And it's even sillier now as GW's are no longer providing gaming space so again, it's a win for local stores that a GW Manager can let people know there is a local store that provides tables to play at. But yeah, conspiracy theories and hating on GW are cool.
Well I guess we're not going to see eye to eye, but GW will open a store next to you if you're successful enough. They did it back in the day, don't know if they do it now.
There was a hobby shop in a local mall about 10-12 years back that used to sell GW at a discount.
A GW opened up directly across from them in the same mall probably 75' away and from what the hobby shop owner told me, GW cut him off from all GW products saying something to the effect that they don't support retailers within a certain distance of a GW store.
The place had been there long before I had even joined the hobby, but it wen out of business within a year or 2 of that.
Now I avoid GW stores and drive out of my way to buy at local non GW hobby shops.
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Keep buying their stuff online, in store, or where ever because you indirectly support me and my dividends keep reinvesting so every year I get 1-3 more shares.
Except they're not buying, prices have gone up while the customer base has dwindled and turnover has gone down. There's a point where GW won't have a usable customer base.
Same with me. I admit I bought Dark Angels, but I skipped out on buying both the Chaos andDA book, even though I was excited about both. Same with the models. I skipped out on buying a $50 dino-zord model and the prices of the new Deathwing Knights was just too much. I skipped out on buying The Hobbit altogether. Any further pruchases I make are going to be for D&D/d20
clively wrote: The level of complaints about GW, their price structure and their business practices is interesting. People only complain when they care. If they stop caring then they stop complaining and just move on.
So, is GW going away soon? Highly unlikely given the number of complainers out there.
People may stick around because they already have an army, but they may not buy a new one. That's something to be concerned about.
If you belive that I've got some ocean front property in Arizona to sell you.
I lived in SoCal till about 2 years ago. GW stores increase sales "if" the local store is smart and works with the store manager. Brookhurst is.....not a clean or organized place. Plenty of other stores have done just fine with GW stores locally.
GW opened the Block because it was at a highend outdoor mall that gave it tons of exposure to a clientelle who could afford to get into the game. This was done after the success of the Glendale Galleria store that had very similar circumstances (less the outdoor part). Can't speak to the Bunker but based on size, cost, metro area, and role that was probably an optimal location for them.
Then how come Brookhurst Hobbies is the only one to tell GW to take their policies and cram it, they discount at 20% off, all the time.
GWwill open a store next to you if you're successful enough.
And a ton of stores of sell GW at a standard 20% off. Online and offline. That's not tell GW to take their policies and cram it. That's competiing with online retailers which is a good thing to do if your volume makes up for the loss your taking on each individual product.
And as for opening next to you that doesn't happen to often. There wasn't major gaming store in Northridge when they opened that store. The "FLGS" in Ventura sold GW stuff but it wasn't a spectacular amount of it. I'm pretty sure there wasn't a FLGS locally in Ontario when they opened that store and we already discussed the reason for the Block at Orange opening. There wasn't a seller in Thousand Oaks when they put their new store in there and the same store that sold GW stuff in Ventura is still there and on the opposite side of town from the new GW 1-man they opened there.
Not sure about other Metros they had 10 years ago or more recently as I live in an area with no less than 6 and probably more FLGS that sell GW product and do pretty well with it. It also had one of the largest account holders in the country for several years before he decided to downgrade and move out of downtown. And shockingly, no store in all that time. They are talking about a 1-man store but it'll recruit and won't make a single dent in the local scene. It'll probably only help honestly.
Not sure if a GW store opened next to Mikhaila but he's certainly one of the largest accounts in the country for brick and mortar stores. I don't see him losing existing customers to a GW store.
If your a FLGS and you run a clean shop, give incentives, have gaming space, and are genuinely good at providing customer service a GW store can only benefit you. People don't move over to pay more and play with kids running around their feet if your running a proper business. If you're a whole in the wall that doesn't clean, refuses to take the long view, provide piss poor customer service, or your location is occupied by unchecked grognards then, yeah, a GW store might be a bad thing to have open next to you. And it's even sillier now as GW's are no longer providing gaming space so again, it's a win for local stores that a GW Manager can let people know there is a local store that provides tables to play at. But yeah, conspiracy theories and hating on GW are cool.
Well I guess we're not going to see eye to eye, but GW will open a store next to you if you're successful enough. They did it back in the day, don't know if they do it now.
They did that in Orlando. We have 5 FLGSs in the metro area. GW moved in to the only area there wasn't a nearby shop. Not sure how successful it is only because I don't want to drive over an hour to visit a store. If it was a bunker or sold FW, it would be different but its not. I have 3 shops to chose from and there are weekly tournies so whenever I have a free weekend, I can get 3 games and lunch in for $10. Which is great for the casual gamer. I've heard the GW shop doesn't attract the locals, only the out of towners so I guess its not really materially affecting anyone. I guess if they were to open up across the street or next door that would be a bigger issue but there should be an agreement in place when you buy wholesale that says they can't open a new location within x miles of your business. If you move or they have an existing location then you are SOL.
If you belive that I've got some ocean front property in Arizona to sell you.
I lived in SoCal till about 2 years ago. GW stores increase sales "if" the local store is smart and works with the store manager. Brookhurst is.....not a clean or organized place. Plenty of other stores have done just fine with GW stores locally.
GW opened the Block because it was at a highend outdoor mall that gave it tons of exposure to a clientelle who could afford to get into the game. This was done after the success of the Glendale Galleria store that had very similar circumstances (less the outdoor part). Can't speak to the Bunker but based on size, cost, metro area, and role that was probably an optimal location for them.
Then how come Brookhurst Hobbies is the only one to tell GW to take their policies and cram it, they discount at 20% off, all the time.
GWwill open a store next to you if you're successful enough.
And a ton of stores of sell GW at a standard 20% off. Online and offline. That's not tell GW to take their policies and cram it. That's competiing with online retailers which is a good thing to do if your volume makes up for the loss your taking on each individual product.
And as for opening next to you that doesn't happen to often. There wasn't major gaming store in Northridge when they opened that store. The "FLGS" in Ventura sold GW stuff but it wasn't a spectacular amount of it. I'm pretty sure there wasn't a FLGS locally in Ontario when they opened that store and we already discussed the reason for the Block at Orange opening. There wasn't a seller in Thousand Oaks when they put their new store in there and the same store that sold GW stuff in Ventura is still there and on the opposite side of town from the new GW 1-man they opened there.
Not sure about other Metros they had 10 years ago or more recently as I live in an area with no less than 6 and probably more FLGS that sell GW product and do pretty well with it. It also had one of the largest account holders in the country for several years before he decided to downgrade and move out of downtown. And shockingly, no store in all that time. They are talking about a 1-man store but it'll recruit and won't make a single dent in the local scene. It'll probably only help honestly.
Not sure if a GW store opened next to Mikhaila but he's certainly one of the largest accounts in the country for brick and mortar stores. I don't see him losing existing customers to a GW store.
If your a FLGS and you run a clean shop, give incentives, have gaming space, and are genuinely good at providing customer service a GW store can only benefit you. People don't move over to pay more and play with kids running around their feet if your running a proper business. If you're a whole in the wall that doesn't clean, refuses to take the long view, provide piss poor customer service, or your location is occupied by unchecked grognards then, yeah, a GW store might be a bad thing to have open next to you. And it's even sillier now as GW's are no longer providing gaming space so again, it's a win for local stores that a GW Manager can let people know there is a local store that provides tables to play at. But yeah, conspiracy theories and hating on GW are cool.
For me it was pretty obvious that GW opened the "Los Angeles" Battle Bunker in Westminster Orange County, and the Block in Orange to position themselves on either side of Brookhurst Hobbies. At that point in time Brookhurt was one of the largest sellers of GW on the West coast.
After I had been open for about 4 years, and had become a somewhat successful "GW partnership" store, I had heard rumors over and over again that GW was going to drop a store right next to me in Brea. I was reassured every time I asked my rep or someone else at GW that that wasn't the case. So ok they didn't put the store in Brea, Just a mile and half from me in Fullerton, right across the Brea border.
I feel I have a nice shop that I have always tried to improve. Large gaming tables, GW fully stocked, terrain for use. We run events and tournaments. And have a fairly mature and fun player base here. But GW has absolutely siphened business from us. I don't feel it form the vets or long time customers, But I think we lost the younger crowd. I have almost zero new young players strarting any GW system these days. Of course it's a tough sell to a new kids parent when you tell them they need a $75 rule book and a $50 army book to play the game before they've bought one model or pot of paint.
Who is the majority you speak of? Is it the majority of Dakka Members? Are you looking at active members or is it the people that you talk to on a regular basis? Looking at their financial statements, it doesn't look like the majority of the players have moved on - it looks like there is some growth. Their financials show they are consistent.
Actually, their financials show a cause for much concern. Especially to a longer term investor such as myself.
Let me explain:
With an average price increase of more than 20% last year coupled with a decrease in manufacturing costs, GW should have shown growth of around 20%-25% if things were flat volume wise, but they only had a 7% gain in revenue which represents a drop of about 15% in actual sales volume. (This is why companies like Apple report both revenue and unit sales so investors can see the forward growth momentum). Anyone who has been on the planet as many years as I have knows this is foreshadowing some serious trouble down the road and when it comes, it comes fast and hard. Also, considering the timing of the recent CEOs departure, I have a sneaking suspicion that the signs are already apparent in the company and this may be a closer event to realization than most realize. Better to get out at the top than wait for the ride down.
Secondly, GW hasn't done much new in the last five years. No new games, no trying to develop new properties, heck, no real new armies, etc. They are milking the cash cow just like Kodak milked the film camera cow while the digital camera age overtook them. To many people's point, GW is a long term investment for a gamer, which means new properties to keep them going - not rehashing the same old ones again and again.
Third, reading their statements is scary in that it is obvious management is completely oblivious to the growing competition out there. This, again, reminds me of Kodak during the waning years of film. All management kept telling the shareholders was that digital would be niche and film would continue to rule the world. In fact, Kodak said this all the way up to their entry into bankruptcy.
For those that have been into the hobby industry for a time like I have, there were similar discussions around TSR when they we the big boys on the block. Everyone said they wouldn't be gone tomorrow, their the kings of the hobby business (and they were at the time). Lo and behold, two years later there were gone. Gone over to WoTC, but gone none the less. Unfortunately, GW is in fact beginning to show the same early warning signs of impending trouble.
My question, Wayshuba is, isn't the big difference between GW and others, that most people involved in GW games for anything more than the 3 'christmas's or birthdays' already know, or at least, believe this?
Or is it a case of something the gamers know, but the investers aren't too interested in at the moment?
boyd wrote: Keep buying their stuff online, in store, or where ever because you indirectly support me and my dividends keep reinvesting so every year I get 1-3 more shares.
I'm surprised and pleased that a GW defender has the gall/honesty to say up front that he has a direct financial stake in their success.
It is always good to have objective opinions around here.
Ah, I'd prefer a white knight that's up-front with why (especially such a rational reason, no less!) over one who pretends to be subjective, you ask me.
Salacious Greed wrote: It sounds like standard media jargon, but the Chairman of the Board has absorbed the CEO position he vacated to bring in Wells 5 years ago. Interesting.
Salacious Greed wrote: It sounds like standard media jargon, but the Chairman of the Board has absorbed the CEO position he vacated to bring in Wells 5 years ago. Interesting.
Sooo.. aside from the snide remarks on Tom Kirby, what's his trackrecord like?
I mean, I see a lot of people here thinking they'd make better ceo's.
If it were me, i'd blame the senior and executive producers and not the pencilpushers.
Because, myself, being a CCP alumn, have a really hard time seeing the BOD twirl their poirot moustaches and getting their gimpy mittens involved in game development, aside from nagging about budgets and fields in an excelsheet.
xcasex wrote: Sooo.. aside from the snide remarks on Tom Kirby, what's his trackrecord like?
He was running GW until he brought in Wells, then went over to the US to help restructure and gave the CEO position to Wells. So basically, more of the same. I'd say Wells might have been even better since he led GW through the LotR bubbles which improved their plastic technology.
So anyone else getting out their conspiracy hats and wondering about the timing of Wells leaving/being kicked out and the frankly stupid pricing of the WoC release?
It kinda stinks of Kirby saying "We are rising prices significantly, if you don't like it your fired."
xcasex wrote: Sooo.. aside from the snide remarks on Tom Kirby, what's his trackrecord like?
He was running GW until he brought in Wells, then went over to the US to help restructure and gave the CEO position to Wells. So basically, more of the same. I'd say Wells might have been even better since he led GW through the LotR bubbles which improved their plastic technology.
I thought Wells came in after the LotR buble has finished? 2007/8 would be when he joined.
Nope, my 'conspiracy' scenario would be something like:
I'm guessing Wells still has whatever shares he has.
So it's more likely in my mind to be a sort of 'phased outage.'
Wells leaves now, prices keep going up.
Wells sells his shares in a years time.
Prices go up again. Kirby announces his impending retirement in a couple of years. Prices still go up. Kirby eventually retires, selling his shares, inflated due to the price rises shortly before his retirement.
Not long after that, the last price rise is shown to be truly unsustainable, GW collapses in some form (eg bought by disney/hasbro etc), Kirby can go to wherever he wants saying 'hey, I kept the company afloat, what happened afterwards, not my problem.'
This all chimes with all the 'short term gains' sense I've got from things. Even Rick Priestley has made some comments in talking about his new Beyond The Gates of Antares game that, while he can't argue that GW is making money, their prices aren't good for the long term growth of the hobby.
Compel wrote: This all chimes with all the 'short term gains' sense I've got from things. Even Rick Priestley has made some comments in talking about his new Beyond The Gates of Antares game that, while he can't argue that GW is making money, their prices aren't good for the long term growth of the hobby.
I think the current rapid price increase (something Kingsley thinks is a myth but anyone with eyes can see) is all to do with this. I described it to Kroothawk in another thread as going "Full Hobbit". Once the Hobbit reaches its peak, which will be determined by the success (or failure) of the next movie, that's when we'll see the rapid sale of shares and Kirby/Wells gliding away to greener pastures on their golden parachutes.
Who is the majority you speak of? Is it the majority of Dakka Members? Are you looking at active members or is it the people that you talk to on a regular basis? Looking at their financial statements, it doesn't look like the majority of the players have moved on - it looks like there is some growth. Their financials show they are consistent.
Actually, their financials show a cause for much concern. Especially to a longer term investor such as myself.
Let me explain:
With an average price increase of more than 20% last year coupled with a decrease in manufacturing costs, GW should have shown growth of around 20%-25% if things were flat volume wise, but they only had a 7% gain in revenue which represents a drop of about 15% in actual sales volume. (This is why companies like Apple report both revenue and unit sales so investors can see the forward growth momentum). Anyone who has been on the planet as many years as I have knows this is foreshadowing some serious trouble down the road and when it comes, it comes fast and hard. Also, considering the timing of the recent CEOs departure, I have a sneaking suspicion that the signs are already apparent in the company and this may be a closer event to realization than most realize. Better to get out at the top than wait for the ride down.
Secondly, GW hasn't done much new in the last five years. No new games, no trying to develop new properties, heck, no real new armies, etc. They are milking the cash cow just like Kodak milked the film camera cow while the digital camera age overtook them. To many people's point, GW is a long term investment for a gamer, which means new properties to keep them going - not rehashing the same old ones again and again.
Third, reading their statements is scary in that it is obvious management is completely oblivious to the growing competition out there. This, again, reminds me of Kodak during the waning years of film. All management kept telling the shareholders was that digital would be niche and film would continue to rule the world. In fact, Kodak said this all the way up to their entry into bankruptcy.
For those that have been into the hobby industry for a time like I have, there were similar discussions around TSR when they we the big boys on the block. Everyone said they wouldn't be gone tomorrow, their the kings of the hobby business (and they were at the time). Lo and behold, two years later there were gone. Gone over to WoTC, but gone none the less. Unfortunately, GW is in fact beginning to show the same early warning signs of impending trouble.
I agree with everything and I think the comparison to Kodak is a good one.
Well then hopefully unlike TSR the new owners will be more aware of the value of the long term customer base. While I do not want to see GW fail I find the current path is not going to lead to success
.
