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What do you put your faith in and why? Do you stick with the statistics or do you believe that anything can happen no matter what the odds?

Sometimes, even if the odds are against you, you just HAVE to make that play. You just have that feeling in your gut that although its unlikely, you have to try.

I believe you are mis-using the term Mathhammer...

Mathhammer usually concerns list builidng that includes theory and the % of possible outcomes.

Eg. Chaos Trolls... fun to have around, but will they spend 1/3 of the game wondering around due to Stupidity, even when your General is in range...

Whereas, no matter how well built a list is, the player and his opponent are the main factors to consider... along with chance in the roll of the die. Unless you use loaded dice and are a loser.

I put my faith in statistical averages. Obviously, one still must take risks and hope for the best, but it's always better to take risks when you actually have a reasonable chance of succeeding.

Also, I tend to roll well only when the odds are enormously in my favor anyway, so trusting in luck when "the chips are down" (so to speak) does not often pay off for me.

But that "1 unlikely roll" can help make a game to remember!

AvatarForm wrote:I believe you are mis-using the term Mathhammer...

Mathhammer usually concerns list builidng that includes theory and the % of possible outcomes.

Eg. Chaos Trolls... fun to have around, but will they spend 1/3 of the game wondering around due to Stupidity, even when your General is in range...

Whereas, no matter how well built a list is, the player and his opponent are the main factors to consider... along with chance in the roll of the die. Unless you use loaded dice and are a loser.

Even by your definition my question is not misusing the term. Using your own example a person can either trust the Mathhammer that says those Trolls will spend 1/3 of the game doing nothing and not take them just because the numbers say not to. Or a person can ignore what the numbers say and put their trust in the ever present chance that they will spend 2 or even 3/3rds of the game carving their way through the enemy and take the Trolls.

My question is simply which do you put your faith in. That isn't a mis-use of the term in any way.

Luck, she has abandoned me elsewhere, but she put in a good word with the dice gods, as fickle as they might be.

Well i know when i get in close combat with my warrior bugs.... those five attacks on the charge with the alpha warrior weapon skilll, buts duel talons Im rolling 45 dice, and on the first hit will score close too 30 to 35 hits, thats when the duel talons come in 1 and 2 are rerolled.... so im looking at close too 40 to all hits after that....
then wounding its the same story with toxin sac.... will wound about 30 to 35 then rerolls with the toxin... its all about math no luck with those squads.. but when i play othere armies of my own.... its lets see if daddy needs a new pair of shoes tonight.... its both for me.

I feel like the poll numbers aren't correct...

Why doesn't everybody say math-hammer???

People play games to win, and have fun, and most people have fun by winning.

Thus the goal is winning.
Your strategy is to then to maximize chances of winning.
Math-hammer maximizes your chances of winning.
Math-hammer relies on probability, but chance takes over in the end.
However, mathhammer, even if it relies on a chance, is the best way to go, because it maximizes victory chances.

Tactics and strategy intermingled with math hammer will create a winner.

Tactics and strategy couple with hoping for luck will on average work less of the time.

I feel like this should be re-worded to Mathhammer/Luck.

It's fairly impossible to play the game without "relying" on mathhammer. How do you know Genestealers are going to mow down that unit of Tau Firewarriors? Well, basic probability says the Tau are totally screwed, that's how. You don't send the Firewarriors into combat with the Genestealers hoping that both your opponent and you will roll very low probability rolls. Instead, you shoot them off the board because you have a much greater likelihood of doing so!

If I wanted to do math every single time I made a list and played the game...I would have committed my life to celibacy and became a TA for Statistics...

This thread is going the way of the dodo


Mathhammer comes in many forms. As kirbinator said, how can you rely on a unit to work well without it. Mathhammer is simply probability of something working. Every good tactician and strategist should use mathhammer. You won't use AP3 weaponry on a model with a 2+ save. Neither will you use a bunch of Str. 7 shots on an AV 14 model. Once again, neither will you ever get a unit that doesn't do anything and is horrible, like half of the Tau codex.

This is all Mathhammer. This is all calculating the best chances of victory.

Luck is the only other road, and it doesn't work the greater part of the time.

Thus, mathhammer should be getting the majority of votes!!!!

AAERRRGHH!!!

EDIT - Unholy_martyr, you make a list with consideration in mind though? You don't make a list randomly. Everything has a purpose. Anti tanks units for destroying tanks. Something that can pump out loads of shots to take out light infantry. This is a basic mathhammer. Pure numbers can be attained for those most eager to have exact calculations, but unless you make a list randomly, you are performing a type of mathhammer.

The question makes no damn sense. None.

You can't play without some level of mathhammer. You don't have to directly calculate the expected wounds and the standard deviation, but you do need to factor in to your decision making whether you're more likely to have an affect attacking the tank or the infantry. If you aren't doing that on some level then you're not actually playing the game, you're just randomly moving stuff around.

Similarly, you can't just run mathhammer and expect to win. There are game priorities beyond straight calculations of probability, even if something is unlikely to succeed you might have assessed the consequences of failure as very low, and advantage of success as very high.

Ok let me clear something up as there seems to be some confusion. It is obvious to everyone that the game requires a little bit of both math and luck. But just because both are present in the game does not mean that everyone chooses to rely on the same option.

This thread is asking what you choose to put their faith in the numbers or the luck. That dosen't mean that players don't use a little of both.

At the start I play conservative defence and go with statistical averages and by mid-game I make the plays where the odds are stacked, but it just has to be done to win the game. But I always have a plan B

Why does this have to be a contradiction? I doubt anyone exclusively relies on one or the other.

IMHO, if a person uses no math at all, their game has no strategy. The best they can hope to do is make their game decisions by how tough the models look on the table-top.

If a person uses no luck/chance at all, then their game has no soul. They took a game, something that people do to relax and have fun, and turned it into a math test. And the winner is not the person who was the best general, but the person who scored higher in AP statistics.

Anyone have any ideas on how I can make it as simple as possible for people to understand what this is about? I don't want to sound rude but points are being brought up that have no reason to be brought up because that isn't what this is about.

This is not a discussion based on if games only have luck or math or a mixture of both. This is a post where people can post what they personally put their faith in when playing a game. They may use both math and luck but some people choose to look to luck versus math and vice versa. That is what this is about.

Has that made it any clearer?

The choosing unit types based on what their specialty is not math hammer...if it is...then I quit...

Seriously though, my list considerations really fall upon the following 3 questions:

1) Do I have what I need to kill everything?

2) Does its killing potential also have the potential to make me laugh when I roll 30 1's?

3) Does the model look good?

Seriously, the only mathematical considerations I make are what points cost the units are...do I try and figure out my chances before going into combat? No, I'd rather roll some dice and hope for a happy ending. (However, I play Space Wolves so more often than not, if I'm assaulting something I'm doing it because I know I don't want it assaulting me next turn) Do I try and figure out what the best piece of wargear is statistically before modeling my unit? No, why? Because I have enough math in my profession to not care enough for it to carry over into my hobby.

Statistics are great and all; however, when you throw them into an environment where the probability of a positive outcome plummets the more dice you roll...you're setting your own math up for failure...Like everyone says...what looks good on paper is usually too good to be true...

"Oh well anything can happen" means you don't win a lot of games, because you just act on whims without considering what works together. Once you start considering 'hey, should I charge those guys', you're starting to look at probabilities. Some people handle probabilities intuitively or through experience instead of by calculation, but that doesn't mean they're not considering probabilities.

Lots of people are bad at applying math, so will make bad decisions. A common one is the 'odds are I'll win, therefore I am guaranteed to win' or 'odds are he can't kill me, so I'm safe'. Although these are really just bad applications of math, people who don't understand how to apply probability will say 'oh, I lost that fight I "should" have won, math is worthless'. For example, there was a discussion in YMDC about charging into a marine tac squad with an eldar banshees+farseer squad. One guy who advocated arranging the charge so that only 3 banshees engaged the marines sneered at the idea of a tac squad beating banshees - yet in actuality, 3 banshees vs 10 tac marines only win about 3/4 of the time - I'm sure every eldar player has seen 6 power weapon hits whiff against T4 before. He went on to explain that he was setting up an extremely reliable plan when he relied on getting a "decent" fleet roll (fails 1 time in 3), winning the aforementioned combat (fails 1 time in 4), and marines not escaping after the combat (get away 1 in 6), but that plan actually only has around a 60-40 shot of working - decent odds, but far from guaranteed. But I'm sure if the 60-40 shot failed, or the marines won that 1 time in 4 when 3 banshees charged them, he'd say 'bleh, mathhammer never works', not acknowledge that his fight was far from a sure thing.

I use to run statistics and caulculate percentiges in my head when I was really bored or couldn't sleep. And one thing I have learned is that those little plastic cubes we all enjoy rolling so much will never fall the way probability says they should.

I would like the debating about what factor is more reliable to stop as that isn't the point. If you are stating why you put more faith in one area and it includes arguments against the other then that is fine. But actually trying to persuade others to see your point of view isn't.

I created this because I want to see how many people put more stock in luck then math (as I am way more prone to trust in chance then numbers).

Part of knowing the math is expecting the dice to deviate from the expected value. Sure, 1/2 can be expected to hit on 4+, but it might be none and it might be all, and you need a plan for every outcome as well as its likelihood of coming to pass.

I voted Luck.
Mathhammer has its benefits, and logically speaking it makes the most sense. But you will always 100% fail with the dice you don't roll. Sure, you might have a 90% chance of NOT blowing up the Landraider, but you will never blow it up until you shoot at it.

Luck makes things more fun and interesting...

Not even mathhammer can tell you for sure if it is going to be a good roll or a bad roll until the die are cast. That 10% rate of success might be every roll you make today! And tomorrow you may roll the rest of the 90% failure.

That is where mathhammer falls apart in my opinion: Are we mathhammering the percentage of dice I roll for just this one game? Just this one handful of dice? Or are we talking about the odds and percentages of ALL the dice I am ever going to roll in my entire life time?

10% success of my entire life time equals a lot more blown up Landraiders than 10% of one game. So, can I practice rolling bad or rolling good? If I roll a whole bunch of random dice all day long just before the big game; will it whittle down that 90% of failure so that when I pick up the dice again I'm closer to the 10% of success?

Luck is a skill, practice getting lucky!

Mathhammer gives you an idea what you need to do to maximize the chances of luck. The better position you are in, the more dice are rolled with lower success requirements and minimizing enemy dice rolling, the more likely things are to go your way.

Luck however will always beat anything. I don't care if you are the best player in the world with the hardest army out there at the top of your game making every correct decision, if you roll nothing but 1's you will lose.

Aye yi yi. These polls scare me sometimes.

This premise is flawed, it's not one or the other, you have both. You can't choose to use one and neglect the other, that is silly to even suggest.

Math-hammer is a tool to allow you to predict what is most likely to happen in a given situation. You use it to make plans that are based on probability.

Chance is what actually happens. It can vary wildly in any given situation but you roll the dice enough times and they will mimic probability estimations.

Even people who say they don't use math hammer do, even if without thinking about it. In your mind you think, hmm, my genestealers will probably kill those Guardians is I assault them. Why do you think this? Because math hammer says, rolling even close to average, you will kill your target.

If you don't use math as a tool in a game that is based fundamentally in mathematics then you are shooting yourself in the foot. Math hammer makes you a better player. It is not a magic bullet or a crystal ball but a tool.

Some of these answers in this thread seriously are frightening. You are more prone to trust in chance than numbers?

Chance in this game is centered around numbers. Look at a probability curve of rolling two 6 sided dice, it is not complex at all, it is very easy to understand.

Well, to each their own. But saying the two are separate is a fundamentally flawed statement as they are not. One is a tool for predicting the other, they are intrinsically tied to each other and are not in fact two separate things.

But sometimes the most fun/risky stuff comes down to pure luck. Things like deep strike, the shokk attack gun, gift of chaos. Have a high statistical chance of failure. But does that stop us using them?

I use the dark arts of mathhammer when building lists. But when it is turn 5 and an lone enemy terminator is standing on your objective, you have to assault w/ the 5 man tac squad. Mathhammer says they shouldn't win, but sometimes you just gotta take that chance.

Warboss Imbad Ironskull wrote:Anyone have any ideas on how I can make it as simple as possible for people to understand what this is about? I don't want to sound rude but points are being brought up that have no reason to be brought up because that isn't what this is about.

This is not a discussion based on if games only have luck or math or a mixture of both. This is a post where people can post what they personally put their faith in when playing a game. They may use both math and luck but some people choose to look to luck versus math and vice versa. That is what this is about.

Has that made it any clearer?

We all understood you fine the first time. I personally disagree with your premise, but it's not because of a lack of clarity on your part. I don't believe most players "put their faith" in one or the other.

Warboss Imbad Ironskull wrote:Anyone have any ideas on how I can make it as simple as possible for people to understand what this is about? I don't want to sound rude but points are being brought up that have no reason to be brought up because that isn't what this is about.

This is not a discussion based on if games only have luck or math or a mixture of both. This is a post where people can post what they personally put their faith in when playing a game. They may use both math and luck but some people choose to look to luck versus math and vice versa. That is what this is about.

Has that made it any clearer?

It isn't that your point isn't clear, it's that your point makes no sense. You don't turn up and say 'today I will rely on the numbers'... it can't be done. At some point you need to roll the dice, and accept that probability will only tell you the probability of each possible outcome. And I've never met a player who just trusted in dice and paid no attention to likely outcomes, and if such a player existed it'd be debateable whether they were playing the game.

The Fox Lord wrote:I use to run statistics and caulculate percentiges in my head when I was really bored or couldn't sleep. And one thing I have learned is that those little plastic cubes we all enjoy rolling so much will never fall the way probability says they should.

Probability never says how dice will turn out. It tells you the probability of each result. And yes, roll enough dice and they will trend very closely to the outcomes given.

Psyker_9er wrote:10% success of my entire life time equals a lot more blown up Landraiders than 10% of one game. So, can I practice rolling bad or rolling good? If I roll a whole bunch of random dice all day long just before the big game; will it whittle down that 90% of failure so that when I pick up the dice again I'm closer to the 10% of success?

Luck is a skill, practice getting lucky!

What?

liam0404 wrote:But sometimes the most fun/risky stuff comes down to pure luck. Things like deep strike, the shokk attack gun, gift of chaos. Have a high statistical chance of failure. But does that stop us using them?

No part of mathhammer argues that you shouldn't do things that are unlikely, it just gives you the percentage and leaves it up to you to balance the relative benefits of each and then consider that compared to the probability of success. For instance, you have the option of shooting a lascannon at a space marine, or at a land raider - mathammer will tell you the probability of scoring a kill in each instance. But which is the best target is up to the player - in most circumstances the landraider will be the preferred target because even though it's a tougher target it represents a much greater threat. But in another game it might be the last turn with the landraider contesting one objective while the lone space marine holds another objective by himself - in this instance the higher probability is the decisive factor.


Automatically Appended Next Post:

Thaylen wrote:I use the dark arts of mathhammer when building lists. But when it is turn 5 and an lone enemy terminator is standing on your objective, you have to assault w/ the 5 man tac squad. Mathhammer says they shouldn't win, but sometimes you just gotta take that chance.

Again though, mathhammer just gives the probability of each outcome. It doesn't at any point say what decision needs to be made, that's up to the player - to balance probability against the benefits of success and the costs of failure.

Napoleon used to ask if his generals were lucky.

Math-hammer helps you figure out the most likely outcome it's a tool,
It says an IG infantry should be hitting half the time, luck can/will deviate this from all to none for any instance of the time, just when you need it most, but this is all part of the game.

Some might get the headology after one instance in a game,
"all hit, me and math hammer are unstoppable" but when they all miss "math-hammer is fail"