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So, I randomly clicked somewhere on dakka dakka and it led me to this thread where a gentlemen wrote a nice letter to Mark Wells and got a standard looking response which led me to ponder something.
Is this the last decade of Warhammer?
A few years ago when the CEO of CCP said that the table top industry was in freefall, I didn't take him seriously but I think he's got a point. For the stores that I've been to, I have not seen any growth of a customer base at all. They're usually stagnant or die out. New players are usually people who've moved to a new state/area and look for local gaming stores.
Most potential new 40k players I know can't afford or have incredible difficulty funding the army they want. Hell, even I'm having difficulty now with all these price increases; not that I'm rich, I'm just super cheap when it comes to everything else .... to help save up money for the things that I really enjoy.
Personally, I don't think GW is capable of reeling in more customers than they're losing. Also, I believe that a customer who has an endgame army and no longer makes a lot of purchases would count as a 'lost' customer.

So most importantly, is this the last decade of Warhammer? Do you guys see WHFB and 40k existing beyond 10 years from now as a TT game?

It will continue. Im new myself, got a friend into it too

10 years? yeah it would probably die out or get replaced. Unless the economy takes a turn around.

Toastedandy wrote:10 years? yeah it would probably die out or get replaced. Unless the economy takes a turn around.

Businesses living on escapist hobbies actually tend to be thriving countercyclical.

I couldn't see GW lasting 10 years if they continue making decisions like they have been!! Tabletop games are a small market and GW has ostracised its consumers!

That guy wasn't exactly right. The fan-base is still quite large, it's just that many are shifting to different systems.
Will GW as a company survive in its current form for the next 10 years? Not from my view. Will Warhammer survive? Of course. The IP is fairly valuable, and there's still dakkadakka and Lexicanum, and we'll still have out armies.

Well, many of us buy many things. Even boxes of €30,- for a book on a GK frame.. And much more things like that. I think they will survive.

HERESY! 7 people think it wont! HERESY!

indeed.

the problem is that GW wants the customer base, but they keep raising the prices to keep the same profit margin they've had for the past 5-6 years, in this economy to get people to buy more you need to sell more, the only way to sell more is to use every trading tip in the book, common im on a HND course in electrical and electronic engineering but even i know that to sell more you need to lower the price, sure you lose profit over the short run but over the long run you get a bigger customer base which encourages people to buy buy buy, plus doing the "11.99" thing helps as well with the mental image of "0.99 is less than 1.00" well technically it is but still, you know what i mean

also doing things like "buy 2 box of fire warriors and get 1 half price" or things like that o.o

Well, as an economist I think that... oh wait, I'm not an economist.

OK, having a masters in business studies allows me to deduce that... huh, no qualifications in business at all.

But as a retailer, I will say this: High Street retail is in trouble. The outlook is getting more and more bleak, and it would not be wise for GW to put all their eggs in the High Street basket.

Zweischneid wrote:

Toastedandy wrote:10 years? yeah it would probably die out or get replaced. Unless the economy takes a turn around.

Businesses living on escapist hobbies actually tend to be thriving countercyclical.

I never did economics so bare with me because I have no idea what any of that means, except thriving
But they are not thriving in this climate, they are losing business, closing stores, neglecting loyal customers and continue to increase prices. How is that thriving?

Toastedandy wrote:

Zweischneid wrote:

Toastedandy wrote:10 years? yeah it would probably die out or get replaced. Unless the economy takes a turn around.

Businesses living on escapist hobbies actually tend to be thriving countercyclical.

I never did economics so bare with me because I have no idea what any of that means, except thriving
But they are not thriving in this climate, they are losing business, closing stores, neglecting loyal customers and continue to increase prices. How is that thriving?

1.
Which they did before the crisis. And is not unique to GW. Book stores are closing too, business is moving online. Stores for trinkets and bric-a-brack are closing, business is moving online. Moreover, the entire table-top-wargaming is under serious competition from video-games, etc.. . There are structural changes in the market that are unrelated to the up- and down-swings of the economy. Those structural changes are hurting business with toy-soldiers quite obviously.

2.
With a view towards these structural changes, GW is pursuing a strategy that could make sense.. e.q. forget quantitiy and run your business as a premium-model with fewer customers overall and fewer/leaner distribution (getting rid of all those stores, revamping the range to take less shelf-space, print pricy, glossy, full-colour books, etc.. . ) but charging higher prices for a higher margin.

3.
Unrelated to either 1 or 2 are the cyclical fluctuations in any market based on the health of the economy. By and large, if you are in an economic upswing, business will sell more. If you are in a downturn, businesses will sell less. There are, however, businesses which are countercyclical. Fast-food for example, or discount wholesale businesses that gain business from people downgrading their expectations. Escapist entertainment, including most things related to Fantasy and Sci-Fi (Movies, Books, Games) generally are also countercyclical. With a bit of hyperbole, if the economy is good, people make holidays in the Caribbean. If times are bad, they stay home and fantasies about Elves and Space Marines and far away places untainted by office intrique and pink-slips.

I told you I never did economics so all that is over my head.

So do you think it (GW the business, not the IP) would be around in 10 years?

Toastedandy wrote:I told you I never did economics so all that is over my head.

So do you think it (GW the business, not the IP) would be around in 10 years?

I think if there is any table-top wargaming company around in 10 years at all, GW will be among them. Battletech, Confrontation, Ex Illis, AT-43... roleplaying game companies like White Wolf or TSR, whatever, you name it. None have shown even half as much stamina as GW in making their business work and stay profitable.

Zweischneid wrote:

Toastedandy wrote:I told you I never did economics so all that is over my head.

So do you think it (GW the business, not the IP) would be around in 10 years?

I think if there is any table-top wargaming company around in 10 years at all, GW will be among them. Battletech, Confrontation, Ex Illis, AT-43... roleplaying game companies like White Wolf or TSR, whatever, you name it. None have shown even half as much stamina as GW in making their business work and stay profitable.

I could believe that. It's never been the most resilient of industries, but if anyone's going to come out of it, GW are probably the safest bet. Unless, of course, they over extend themselves beyond their means.

They will stay. The others, however, depends on you guys.. (and me )

The great part about gaming is that the games we love very rarely die. D&D has survived several buyouts and edition changes, and despite all of that, I can find a dozen older edition games still running all about. I can still play the Highlander CCG despite it being out of print for years. Once you have the stuff, there's nothing to stop you playing. Even games that go out of print, their companies bought out, have a habit of being resurrected months or even years down the road. (Deadlands, SLA Industries, Call of Cthulu, and the list goes on...)

Games Workshop as a company? I don't know and I don't care. I personally think a lot of people like to take their negative view of the company and the hobby, then apply it to ALL members of the hobby. I don't see GW closing its doors by 2020. And even if it DOES, I certainy don't see the Warhammer franchise being shut down at the same time. With all the money its made over the years? No, no, someone will buy it, and we will continue to play. Some people will complain of course, but the games will continue.

Of course, that's just my opinion. I could be wrong.

After all the time, money, and effort I've put into 40k, I'm not dropping it any time soon. I'd like GW to stick around so I can still find games and what not, but I figure before things go into the red they'll figure something out to bail themselves out. Apparently they're showing very good profits these days so I think they'll be around.

NEVEEEEEEEER!

Toastedandy wrote:

Zweischneid wrote:

Toastedandy wrote:10 years? yeah it would probably die out or get replaced. Unless the economy takes a turn around.

Businesses living on escapist hobbies actually tend to be thriving countercyclical.

I never did economics so bare with me because I have no idea what any of that means, except thriving
But they are not thriving in this climate, they are losing business, closing stores, neglecting loyal customers and continue to increase prices. How is that thriving?

the way that works is this,


people are bummed the economy is in the tank and they need a way to forget about it. so they turn to escapist entertainment.


now it may not make sense at first but here is how,


Joe Blow makes good money as a Doctor but due to bad economy has taken a paycut.

now he can't really afford to eat porterhouse steak for dinner 3 times a week. so instead, he downgrades to Tri-tip.

instead of being a member of an exclusive golf club he decides to take up Warhammer. the thing with warhammer is, once you have the army you want you don't have to purchase anything else. its not like the miniatures expire or have to be replaced overtime(except for massive codex changes)

Interest is the issue.

The only way GW is spreading their brand is through their stores. Unfortunately, all their stores in places people of the right age/mindset can find them are closing (malls). So the only way this hobby expands is through word of mouth of the people playing it. Who routinely complain about the constant balance issues and constant price increases. Not to mention these same people are playing competing games because they often don't play at a GW store, but rather a LGS.

Even the "thriving" video gaming side of this isn't really helping much because the vast majority of people don't game on their PC's and the options for the consoles are quite limited. Hopefully Space Marine will help expand the audience a little and we'll see an influx of people.

If GW would just advertise like a legitimate company (hell, even just YouTube Ads like MTG did), or better yet, make a TV series/movie/toys they'd probably find more customers simply because the brand is more out there.

But they make next to no real use out of social media, their website is absolute trash, and they only advertise in a horrendously overpriced printed magazine that no outsider would bother buying.

So yea, 10 more years of this? I'd bet they'll be gone.

I dont see them crashing out i think they would drop some of the other tabletop games they make models for like lOTR.

Like some here, I have been playing 40k and Fantasy for a long time, myself, since 1997. I took a break for a few years, but came back and game was stronger than ever. Heck when I left the game back then, i wondered same thing, and well its still here and stronger than it was.

I think GW needs to market better, and yeah I think pricing is a bit off, but well pricing was off back in 97 also. Most niche hobbies tend to be a little overpriced. Till GW gets a main competitor that starts biting into their profits, I doubt it will change, and not even sure it would then.

Hopefully it won't, so then I can say that I play a game that's no longer supported

its definiitly advertizing.



that the only one of GWs business policies i can't justify with anything.


no advertising is extremely odd for a company their size and with their products.

the target audience is massive. it is mostly appealing to young boys, but the product also has great potential for adults as well. women seem to be left out, but, then again, most females arn't interested in playing with little plastic toy soldiers. there are those who do play so thats a potential audience at least.

and for every so many customers you get to actually buy stuff, a certain percentage will stay and play. building up more armies over the years and sticking with the hobby.


now, most companies try and get repeat customers and write the one time buyers off. GW seems to do it the other way around. they want timmy to come in, beg his mom for a box of marines and then never be heard from again.

they don't have sales to encourage large purchases, they don't do discounts.





In my mind, GW would become 100% better if they did a couple of simple things.

1: have sales. Army of the Month deals(like 5% off a certain armies models for that month and keep alternating) bring back the ability to buy certain bits or sprues for conversions.

2: advertise. there are plenty of gaming conventions and modeling magazines where they could advertise.



If they simply did these things they would boost sales. they could keep their little secretive ways of releases and their Totalarian grip on their IP if they did things smartly.

You can't predict from past performance because GW have gone through a number of phases in their 33 (?) year history. All have been about genuine growth except for the last five or six years since the end of the LoTR bubble.

In other words, the business model GW have now, WH/40K and LoTR, doesn't really seem to be working.

They will get a boost from The Hobbit films. They've done some useful rationalisation and efficiency improvements, which together with a weak GBP and rapidly increasing prices, have boosted revenue and profits in the past couple of years.

They've made some mistakes, such as the one man stores. Hopefully they have learnt from them.

The key question is what can be done to get back to genuine sales growth.

My view is that GW need to sell more games than just WH/40K. And they need to stop the price rises. It has got to the level where people are put off buying.

Kilkrazy wrote:
The key question is what can be done to get back to genuine sales growth.

My view is that GW need to sell more games than just WH/40K. And they need to stop the price rises. It has got to the level where people are put off buying.

I disagree.

In my view, seeing that the table-top miniature wargaming market will always be a cornered issue, going for Premium Pricing and a Superiour Good Status make sense. Sure you loose sales (and a fair number of customers, which you inevitably price out of your product range), but it's worth it if the higher margins keep you profitable in a business you can never, ever hope to compete on quantity (especially if, like GW, your still sitting in a Western Country by and large).

Never, because Warhammer hit movies and video games. And very little things can take it down from there...