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As most of us know, plastic is made from oil. We are projected to run out of oil in roughly 40 years.

However, what's more important is when we hit Peak Oil. This is when oil production hits a maximum, then begins to rapidly decline. Once this happens, prices will rise through the roof and it'll be very difficult for GW to buy plastic, let alone cheaply. I'm no scientist, but if we run out of oil in 40 years I'd expect to hit peak oil in roughly 20 years.

So, GW will obviously need an alternative to plastic, which a majority of their kits are made of. Metal wouldn't work for large kits and is expensive.

Does anyone else see Finecast as GW beginning to explore alternatives to plastic?

Finecast was probably a cheaper resin alternative to other options out there.

It essentially meant they did not have to reinvent the wheel in making miniatures; they just went from making metal to making resin and not changing too much from point A to point B in the production process aside from the material change.

It is probably a mutually exclusive thing that their miniatures switched from metal to resin because it saves them money now rather than years down the road when oil has an unsustainable price for a hobby to purchase and still be profitable.

I think when the oil crisis makes it so GW has to revamp their production techniques there will be much more important problems going on.

There are many other ways to make plastics besides out of oils. There are some people who are working on making plastic from mushrooms.
http://www.fastcoexist.com/1678540/an-alternative-to-plastic-grown-from-mushrooms

We will never have to worry about running out of model plastic, don't worry.

Douglaspocock wrote:I think when the oil crisis makes it so GW has to revamp their production techniques there will be much more important problems going on.

There are many other ways to make plastics besides out of oils. There are some people who are working on making plastic from mushrooms.
http://www.fastcoexist.com/1678540/an-alternative-to-plastic-grown-from-mushrooms

We will never have to worry about running out of model plastic, don't worry.

8 Posts, unrealistic out look on the oil crisis. Oil Company plant... I kid of course.

I agree, If the least of our worries in 20 years, and then 40, is a lack of plastic to make miniatures then I would say we got lucky and won't think twice about it.

Oh well back to metal.... better than finecast anyways.

As a geologist, I can safely say don't worry, we won't be running out of oil any time soon. We have much more than 40 years worth of supply with all the new unconventional techniques we are now using to extract it from sands, shales etc.

DarkCorsair wrote:As most of us know, plastic is made from oil. We are projected to run out of oil in roughly 40 years.

You do realise that that number hasn't changed in the past 20 years?

As new oil reserves are discovered and the technology advances to allow access to previously inaccessible ones, Peak Oil and oil reserves numbers increase as well.

Finecast was an attempt by GW to gouge even more profit out of their customer base, because 76% just isn't enough, and since both metal and oil prices are running an all time high due to the financial crisis, resin was the cheapest alternative available.

High Impact Polystyrene goes for about $.70 per pound. How many boxes of Land Raiders or Baneblades does it take to equal one pound of plastic?

The ONLY real costs of plastics is the molds. GW has most certainly already paid off their injection molding machines from the plastics sold over the last 20 something years. So the new molds for new kits, and the cost of design are the only real overhead specific to plastics.

IMO GW should switch everything they do to plastics. It's better for the customer, and IMO better for the company.

Nobody plans business 20 years ahead. For all we know, we may all be dead by then.

Also, when there will be not enough oil to make plastics (which takes FAR less than to make gas), everyone will be less concerned about getting little plastic meltaguns and more concerned about getting full-size metal ones, I guess.

Gnawer wrote:Nobody plans business 20 years ahead. For all we know, we may all be dead by then.

Also, when there will be not enough oil to make plastics (which takes FAR less than to make gas), everyone will be less concerned about getting little plastic meltaguns and more concerned about getting full-size metal ones, I guess.

That reminds me, I need to corner the market on meltaguns and flamers before the apocalypse.

Aerethan wrote:

Gnawer wrote:Nobody plans business 20 years ahead. For all we know, we may all be dead by then.

Also, when there will be not enough oil to make plastics (which takes FAR less than to make gas), everyone will be less concerned about getting little plastic meltaguns and more concerned about getting full-size metal ones, I guess.

That reminds me, I need to corner the market on meltaguns and flamers before the apocalypse.

Real ones?

My theory on the driving force behind using a new resin/plastic hybrid was that GW was trying to cut down on how easy it is to strip models, to try and shut down the ebay second hand market. Metals are very easy to strip, Finecast is most definitely not. As character models hold the most value, this forces people to buy them new rather than on ebay.

DarthOvious wrote:

Real ones?

Well the flamers are pretty easy. Meltas might take some time, and a major world power's military R&D.

Aerethan wrote:

DarthOvious wrote:

Real ones?

Well the flamers are pretty easy. Meltas might take some time, and a major world power's military R&D.

Well, if the apocalypse comes because of oil shortages, those flamers will be kind of useless...

I think if the black stuff does start to run dry, finding cheap models for our miniature war gaming will probably be the least of our problems...

On the other hand, I would be all for a return to all metal armies !

I strongly believe we will develop a synthetic oil substitute prior to all oil running out, Modern life relies on it too much AND the oil company's are not just going to run out of stock and fold. When their hand is forced they will throw money in R&D to develop a alternative.

Personally I think GW have made the move to finecast to try and stand out from the crowd and to appear to the cutting edge of model design. PP & Infinity use metal I think GW wanted to appear to be ahead in R&D.

Did it work, NO. The detail is great I must admit, the problems, the miscasts, the bending, the melting etc.. Terrible.

Finecast was introduced to move from a price volatile material to one that was less so - resin.

Resin is cheaper but suffers from two disadvantages over metal - it's more labour intensive than metal (labour is by far the biggest cost in miniature manufacture once its designed) and it is not recyclable. a small problem but one worth noting.

The material cost for the end user is miniscule but for a large company dealing in hundreds of thousands (?) of casts it becomes a bigger issue. If they spent £500,000 on white metal alloy +10% becomes a big deal. If you know that resin remains pretty static then it’s a simple business case to change rather than bare than risk.

Anecdotally I buy allot of steel for construction and have had situations where the price for structural steel has risen by 25% in 6 months, on £250,00 of steel that is a big problem, so we move to concrete wherever practicable.

Not quite the scam that some would portray.

deejaybainbridge wrote:I strongly believe we will develop a synthetic oil substitute prior to all oil running out, Modern life relies on it too much AND the oil company's are not just going to run out of stock and fold. When their hand is forced they will throw money in R&D to develop a alternative.

Personally I think GW have made the move to finecast to try and stand out from the crowd and to appear to the cutting edge of model design. PP & Infinity use metal I think GW wanted to appear to be ahead in R&D.

Did it work, NO. The detail is great I must admit, the problems, the miscasts, the bending, the melting etc.. Terrible.

I was under the impression that it was the oil companies who owned the patents on the electric car and also the water car. SO they are already ahead of the game. If necessary GW will go to wooden models if they have to

DarthOvious wrote:

deejaybainbridge wrote:I strongly believe we will develop a synthetic oil substitute prior to all oil running out, Modern life relies on it too much AND the oil company's are not just going to run out of stock and fold. When their hand is forced they will throw money in R&D to develop a alternative.

Personally I think GW have made the move to finecast to try and stand out from the crowd and to appear to the cutting edge of model design. PP & Infinity use metal I think GW wanted to appear to be ahead in R&D.

Did it work, NO. The detail is great I must admit, the problems, the miscasts, the bending, the melting etc.. Terrible.

I was under the impression that it was the oil companies who owned the patents on the electric car and also the water car. SO they are already ahead of the game. If necessary GW will go to wooden models if they have to

Hu! That's news to me. I had assumed that it was the car manufactures that were pushing those technology's as the cost of running cars is putting owners off (I for one can no longer afford the however many grand a year it costs) and gaining green credits with carbon reduction targets and appealing to customers who have in recent years become environmentally aware.

But as I said that's my assumption and I in no way know any facts on the issue. I may go away and do some reading now.

deejaybainbridge wrote:

DarthOvious wrote:

deejaybainbridge wrote:I strongly believe we will develop a synthetic oil substitute prior to all oil running out, Modern life relies on it too much AND the oil company's are not just going to run out of stock and fold. When their hand is forced they will throw money in R&D to develop a alternative.

Personally I think GW have made the move to finecast to try and stand out from the crowd and to appear to the cutting edge of model design. PP & Infinity use metal I think GW wanted to appear to be ahead in R&D.

Did it work, NO. The detail is great I must admit, the problems, the miscasts, the bending, the melting etc.. Terrible.

I was under the impression that it was the oil companies who owned the patents on the electric car and also the water car. SO they are already ahead of the game. If necessary GW will go to wooden models if they have to

Hu! That's news to me. I had assumed that it was the car manufactures that were pushing those technology's as the cost of running cars is putting owners off (I for one can no longer afford the however many grand a year it costs) and gaining green credits with carbon reduction targets and appealing to customers who have in recent years become environmentally aware.

But as I said that's my assumption and I in no way know any facts on the issue. I may go away and do some reading now.

It was just an impression I got, it's not something I know as factual. A quick look and I can see that apparently Texaco bought a patent for a type of battery that could be used in cars, not the Electric car itself.

DarkCorsair wrote:As most of us know, plastic is made from oil. We are projected to run out of oil in roughly 40 years.

However, what's more important is when we hit Peak Oil. This is when oil production hits a maximum, then begins to rapidly decline. Once this happens, prices will rise through the roof and it'll be very difficult for GW to buy plastic, let alone cheaply. I'm no scientist, but if we run out of oil in 40 years I'd expect to hit peak oil in roughly 20 years.

So, GW will obviously need an alternative to plastic, which a majority of their kits are made of. Metal wouldn't work for large kits and is expensive.

Does anyone else see Finecast as GW beginning to explore alternatives to plastic?

Crack, being the most popular.


You won't run out of oil. Plastic is as well, reuseable.


Bottom line, the minis are expensive, because people buy them. THATS the irony here.

The Arab states are to blame for Finecast.

It all makes sense now.

I was born in 1972.

Based upon what I was taught in the late 1970's and early 1980's about the world wide petroleum reserves, we should have run out already.

I used to cast my own miniatures in "white metal". The Cost of low melting point metal that are suitable for casting has skyrocketed. It's more cost effective for them to cast in resin.

Also, the molds for metal models wear out and need to be remade periiodically. Steel molds for plastic figured are much more durable and last decades without any significant wear. Coupled with the fac they can import models in plastic faster and cheaper than casting them in metal.

Even if oil isn't in the plastic its still factors into the cost of the miniatures. Transportation people. In fact shipping costs can sometimes account for more than production costs.

20 years ago: Peak oil in 20 years!

10 years ago: Peak oil in 20 years!

Today: Peak oil in 20 years!

I'll go back to driving my hummer while the lawn mower runs on idle and I turn on all of my sinks on hot....

I mentioned this to a gamer buddy of mine and he mentioned good ol' MJ can be used to make plastics of equal or better quality for a cheaper price...sounds dang near nuts to me, but I guess it brings a new meaning to smoke em' if you got em'.

redbristles wrote:As a geologist, I can safely say don't worry, we won't be running out of oil any time soon. We have much more than 40 years worth of supply with all the new unconventional techniques we are now using to extract it from sands, shales etc.

Hey glad to see another geologist here!

kronk wrote:20 years ago: Peak oil in 20 years!

10 years ago: Peak oil in 20 years!

Today: Peak oil in 20 years!

I'll go back to driving my hummer while the lawn mower runs on idle and I turn on all of my sinks on hot....

Thats not the point. The point is that Oil prices are going UP NOW. It doesn't matter when we reach "peak oil". What matters is the price of oil just now.

DarthOvious wrote:

kronk wrote:20 years ago: Peak oil in 20 years!

10 years ago: Peak oil in 20 years!

Today: Peak oil in 20 years!

I'll go back to driving my hummer while the lawn mower runs on idle and I turn on all of my sinks on hot....

Thats not the point. The point is that Oil prices are going UP NOW. It doesn't matter when we reach "peak oil". What matters is the price of oil just now.

in 2005, right after Hurricane Katrina, price of gasoline in the USA went up $.40 per gallon in a week, when the price per barrel only went up $.12, which works out to a total of $.0029 per gallon. I'm pretty sure that the price of Crude oil(which plastics are made from, not refined gasoline) hasn't really gone up all that much compared to a few short years ago. Oil was up to like $130 a barrel, and gasoline here in CA was about $4.50 per gallon. The price of oil is now $86.68 per barrel, putting it at $2 per gallon before refining, and right now the LOWEST cost locally is $3.99(and that one station sells it at cost on principles alone). I refuse to believe that the price of doing business means that Shell needs to charge 100% markup to stay in business.

So what we need to know, is how much High Impact Polystyrene can be made with a single barrel of crude in order to know what the actual materials cost behind plastic kits is.

Also, GW prices were much lower even back when oil was almost twice the price it is now. So saying that more expensive oil= more expensive models doesn't make sense.