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 Torga_DW wrote:
Again, who exactly is going to buy gw?

I dunno. Wizards of the Coast? They're all about fluff, minis, tabletop, and competitive games with broken rules.

Though I guess technically that'd be Hasbro now.

It's a good question. Wizards of the coast already have a game of their own, and it's doing considerably better than 40k is. Why would they want to pick it up, when they could just concentrate on their own better-performing game? I ask this as a hypothetical investor not a gamer, because honestly.... why?

I think the 40k IP isn't as sellable as some would think. The list of buyers is very small.

Hasbro. Disney.

Yep, its a very small list.

SJ

warhammer 40k: the warp awakens.

 jeffersonian000 wrote:
Hasbro. Disney.

Yep, its a very small list.

SJ

Have those companies indicated they'd be wanting to buy?

I think the 40k IP isn't worth very much. It's not worth nothing, but the total sum of active 40k players isn't significant enough to, say, make a movie and expect it not to flop even if every 40k player went to watch it.

 Torga_DW wrote:
It's a good question. Wizards of the coast already have a game of their own, and it's doing considerably better than 40k is. Why would they want to pick it up, when they could just concentrate on their own better-performing game? I ask this as a hypothetical investor not a gamer, because honestly.... why?

\
To kill the game that takes up part of market. Wouldn't be first time that a company was bought, and then closed short time later.

I'd have said GW's IPs were valuable and people would want it, but looking at AoS and recent 40k codexes, not to mention what BL has become, I can't help but think it might be too late on that.

The Space Wolf codex was the last time I stopped and had a good look at getting back into 40k. I bought a few space wolves and was in the process of building them. Then the new codex came out of nowhere with murderfang murdering people with his murderclaws because of his murderlust on planet homicide. Plus the sleigh thing.

GW seems intent on running their own IP into the ground before anyone else can get a hold of it.

 jonolikespie wrote:
I'd have said GW's IPs were valuable and people would want it, but looking at AoS and recent 40k codexes, not to mention what BL has become, I can't help but think it might be too late on that.

The Space Wolf codex was the last time I stopped and had a good look at getting back into 40k. I bought a few space wolves and was in the process of building them. Then the new codex came out of nowhere with murderfang murdering people with his murderclaws because of his murderlust on planet homicide. Plus the sleigh thing.

GW seems intent on running their own IP into the ground before anyone else can get a hold of it.

Until I looked at GW I never thought someone would willingly kamikaze their IP just for an extra fiver this month. Shame really.

AllSeeingSkink wrote:
I think the 40k IP isn't worth very much. It's not worth nothing, but the total sum of active 40k players isn't significant enough to, say, make a movie and expect it not to flop even if every 40k player went to watch it.

Halo was doing it and they're not exactly in the hundreds of millions either. Any attempt at a movie would be marketed to draw in new crowds, not appease the fans (who let's face it will see it as a lore-breaking travesty with six million inaccuracies anyway). Fans read the book then say it was better than the movie.

The IP is still worth a bit I think. There are five video games this year alone and another four being made for next year, including the MMO published by Square Enix.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Games_Workshop_video_games

The biggest issue isn't even with the rules. It's with the fluff. The entire Warhammer universe is not exactly "kid friendly" and relies on adults. Working adults with well-paying jobs and enough lack of a life to paint.

GW have taken over £1,200,000,000 of revenue in the past 10 years, most of it from 40K and WHFB. There's no way there isn't value in the IP. While sales have been declining for several years, that reflects problems with the rules and pricing structure, not the fundamental popularity of the game universe.

For sure, it's never going to rival Star Wars, but there's no reason to think it can't be a profitable line for someone.

[MOD EDIT - RULE #1 - ALPHARIUS]

 Kilkrazy wrote:
GW have taken over £1,200,000,000 of revenue in the past 10 years, most of it from 40K and WHFB. There's no way there isn't value in the IP.

I think the GW IP has value in the wargaming context... at least for now (the more they destroy it the less value it has). But in the wider context, I don't think there's more than 100-200k followers of 40k. I can't remember the number I calculated previously, but there was an reasonably large poll on how much people spend on 40k (in the last 6-12 months) and I remember the amount spent per person was quite high, meaning the number of people responsible for GW's revenue wasn't all that large in the grand scheme of things (compared to stuff like AAA video game sales figures or movie sales figures).

Basically GW's revenue is largely a small number of people spending a large amount of money, which is why I don't think the IP has a great value outside of wargaming and its wargaming value diminishes with each year that GW flog it for all it's worth.

 Kilkrazy wrote:
GW have taken over £1,200,000,000 of revenue in the past 10 years, most of it from 40K and WHFB. There's no way there isn't value in the IP. While sales have been declining for several years, that reflects problems with the rules and pricing structure, not the fundamental popularity of the game universe.

For sure, it's never going to rival Star Wars, but there's no reason to think it can't be a profitable line for someone.

The thing is though, any buyer is going to look at the declining sales figures, as well as how many customers GW has annoyed, alienated and/or pushed away (you know, the actual market research GW never does).

The question is whether a potential buyer will be willing to put in the effort required to get 40k back into the limelight. Moreover, they might well be wondering whether all those customers who left will ever come back. Even if they do make all these changes, many customers might have already moved on and found other systems they're happy with.

To put it another way, potential buyers might well feel that, whilst 40k was once a good IP, GW have simply done too much damage to it (and their customer base) to make it a good investment.

AllSeeingSkink wrote:

 Kilkrazy wrote:
GW have taken over £1,200,000,000 of revenue in the past 10 years, most of it from 40K and WHFB. There's no way there isn't value in the IP.

I think the GW IP has value in the wargaming context... at least for now (the more they destroy it the less value it has). But in the wider context, I don't think there's more than 100-200k followers of 40k. I can't remember the number I calculated previously, but there was an reasonably large poll on how much people spend on 40k (in the last 6-12 months) and I remember the amount spent per person was quite high, meaning the number of people responsible for GW's revenue wasn't all that large in the grand scheme of things (compared to stuff like AAA video game sales figures or movie sales figures).

Basically GW's revenue is largely a small number of people spending a large amount of money, which is why I don't think the IP has a great value outside of wargaming and its wargaming value diminishes with each year that GW flog it for all it's worth.

This is basically what I think. There's not nearly enough main stream appeal for a company like Disney to buy.

AllSeeingSkink wrote:

 jeffersonian000 wrote:
Hasbro. Disney.

Yep, its a very small list.

SJ

Have those companies indicated they'd be wanting to buy?

I think the 40k IP isn't worth very much. It's not worth nothing, but the total sum of active 40k players isn't significant enough to, say, make a movie and expect it not to flop even if every 40k player went to watch it.

Its not so much that those two have shown interest, its that GW's change in business model last year appeared to be in line with an potential buy out by an unnamed toy company, of which Hasbro was the modt likely candidate. The only other toy company with Hasbro's buying power that is also in the acquisition game is Disney. That pretty much cover "all" the posible players, seeing as Lego (#1 toy producer) has shown no interest in the Warhammer brand to date.

SJ

AllSeeingSkink wrote:

 jeffersonian000 wrote:
Hasbro. Disney.

Yep, its a very small list.

SJ

Have those companies indicated they'd be wanting to buy?

I think the 40k IP isn't worth very much. It's not worth nothing, but the total sum of active 40k players isn't significant enough to, say, make a movie and expect it not to flop even if every 40k player went to watch it.

I agree. Wargames are too niche to warrant attention from the big boys. X-Wing exists because Star Wars sells. D&D minis existed because D&D exists. Warhammer... has nothing really big backing it up. I don't see nor Hasbro or Disney even interested in buying GW.

 jeffersonian000 wrote:

AllSeeingSkink wrote:

 jeffersonian000 wrote:
Hasbro. Disney.

Yep, its a very small list.

SJ

Have those companies indicated they'd be wanting to buy?

I think the 40k IP isn't worth very much. It's not worth nothing, but the total sum of active 40k players isn't significant enough to, say, make a movie and expect it not to flop even if every 40k player went to watch it.

Its not so much that those two have shown interest, its that GW's change in business model last year appeared to be in line with an potential buy out by an unnamed toy company, of which Hasbro was the modt likely candidate. The only other toy company with Hasbro's buying power that is also in the acquisition game is Disney. That pretty much cover "all" the posible players, seeing as Lego (#1 toy producer) has shown no interest in the Warhammer brand to date.

SJ

So... basically you have no fething idea and thought it'd just be cool to throw out names like Disney and Hasbro

AllSeeingSkink wrote:

 Kilkrazy wrote:
GW have taken over £1,200,000,000 of revenue in the past 10 years, most of it from 40K and WHFB. There's no way there isn't value in the IP.

I think the GW IP has value in the wargaming context... at least for now (the more they destroy it the less value it has). But in the wider context, I don't think there's more than 100-200k followers of 40k. I can't remember the number I calculated previously, but there was an reasonably large poll on how much people spend on 40k (in the last 6-12 months) and I remember the amount spent per person was quite high, meaning the number of people responsible for GW's revenue wasn't all that large in the grand scheme of things (compared to stuff like AAA video game sales figures or movie sales figures).

Basically GW's revenue is largely a small number of people spending a large amount of money, which is why I don't think the IP has a great value outside of wargaming and its wargaming value diminishes with each year that GW flog it for all it's worth.

I agree. I don't it has any value outside wargaming. However within wargaming, I think there is a lot of goodwill and heritage that GW have wasted, which could very easily and quickly be brought back, and sell a lot of product.

For example, one of my biggest gripes with 6th/7th edition, is the inclusion of Forts, Apocalypse, Flyers, Allies, Formations, Etc, in the main rules. These could easily be put into optional rules, and then I would be happy and so would the people who like FAFAFE would also be happy. Everyone would be happy together, and sales would go up rather than down. GW could do this themselves, actually.

 Kilkrazy wrote:
For example, one of my biggest gripes with 6th/7th edition, is the inclusion of Forts, Apocalypse, Flyers, Allies, Formations, Etc, in the main rules. These could easily be put into optional rules, and then I would be happy and so would the people who like FAFAFE would also be happy. Everyone would be happy together, and sales would go up rather than down. GW could do this themselves, actually.

Sadly the whole point of 7th edition was to include things as Super-heavies in the main rules just to encourage players to buy them more. I don't know to how extent it has driven up sales though, as even WAAC hardcore tournament players have to contend with the house rules most tournaments implement, which typically aim to put limits on the use of such things.

Yes, GW clearly thought it would force people to buy more models, but actually it forced a lot of people to stop buying any models or books at all.

It has driven up sales by minus 25%, roughly speaking.

And remember, rules are cheap. Manufacturing is expensive and GW already has that covered. So you have an IP that's already profitable despite poor management, and the things that need to be fixed are some of the easiest and cheapest parts of running a business. That's a textbook case of making a modest investment in a purchase and seeing easy almost-guaranteed returns. Even if the almost-guaranteed profit isn't huge it's still easy money.


Automatically Appended Next Post:

 Kilkrazy wrote:
For example, one of my biggest gripes with 6th/7th edition, is the inclusion of Forts, Apocalypse, Flyers, Allies, Formations, Etc, in the main rules. These could easily be put into optional rules, and then I would be happy and so would the people who like FAFAFE would also be happy. Everyone would be happy together, and sales would go up rather than down. GW could do this themselves, actually.

Honestly, I think that was one of the few good things about 7th. Get rid of the splits in the community and all the arguments about what should or shouldn't be legal, and have everyone play the same game. The problem was the shamefully bad execution of a good idea. If those new unit types hadn't been introduced with utterly broken rules then I think we would have seen a lot fewer complaints.

AllSeeingSkink wrote:

 jeffersonian000 wrote:
Hasbro. Disney.

Yep, its a very small list.

SJ

Have those companies indicated they'd be wanting to buy?

I think the 40k IP isn't worth very much. It's not worth nothing, but the total sum of active 40k players isn't significant enough to, say, make a movie and expect it not to flop even if every 40k player went to watch it.

The 40K IP is by far the most valuable thing GW owns, way above and beyond any physical infrastructure or anything else, and is probably what constitutes the majority of their value. It's worth a lot. Anyone with even limited introduction to "geek culture" has some familiarity with 40k even if they've never played the tabletop game (much like most people could see a Gundam or a Zaku and recognize them for what they are even if they've never seen a Gundam show), it's a highly recognizable IP, and aside from the tabletop game, it's got hundreds of novels & comics, dozens of videogames, and large numbers of 3rd party products.

It might not be Star Wars vluable, but it's a valuable IP nonetheless that lots of different places would pick up in a heartbeat if it were up for sale.

If GW did go under, I wouldn't be totally surprised to see the tabletop game disappear or be relegated to an insignificant backburner, but the IP live on, much like Battletech/mechwarrior,

 Vaktathi wrote:

AllSeeingSkink wrote:

 jeffersonian000 wrote:
Hasbro. Disney.

Yep, its a very small list.

SJ

Have those companies indicated they'd be wanting to buy?

I think the 40k IP isn't worth very much. It's not worth nothing, but the total sum of active 40k players isn't significant enough to, say, make a movie and expect it not to flop even if every 40k player went to watch it.

The 40K IP is by far the most valuable thing GW owns, way above and beyond any physical infrastructure or anything else, and is probably what constitutes the majority of their value. It's worth a lot. Anyone with even limited introduction to "geek culture" has some familiarity with 40k even if they've never played the tabletop game (much like most people could see a Gundam or a Zaku and recognize them for what they are even if they've never seen a Gundam show), it's a highly recognizable IP, and aside from the tabletop game, it's got hundreds of novels & comics, dozens of videogames, and large numbers of 3rd party products.

It might not be Star Wars vluable, but it's a valuable IP nonetheless that lots of different places would pick up in a heartbeat if it were up for sale.

I think we'll have to agree to disagree. I think a large company like Disney or Hasbro would sooner create their own IP and pay for the advertising to make it more recognisable than 40k ever is. The average advertising campaign for a movie generates more mainstream knowledge of an IP. Such an advertising campaign is expensive and out of the realm of most wargaming companies, but I think big companies would rather just pay to market an IP than buy any of GW's IPs.

The 40k IP is more of a wet dream for smaller companies than large ones IMO.

If GW did go under, I wouldn't be totally surprised to see the tabletop game disappear or be relegated to an insignificant backburner, but the IP live on, much like Battletech/mechwarrior,

I think that entirely depends how much GW run it in to the ground before they go under. In a couple of years the WHFB IP is likely going to be worth a fraction of what it was a few years ago thanks to AoS, I wouldn't discount GW doing something to ruin the value of the 40k IP as well.

Doesn't Hasbro only go after successful companies it can pick up, change very little about, and reap the rewards?


Automatically Appended Next Post:

AllSeeingSkink wrote:
I think that entirely depends how much GW run it in to the ground before they go under. In a couple of years the WHFB IP is likely going to be worth a fraction of what it was a few years ago thanks to AoS, I wouldn't discount GW doing something to ruin the value of the 40k IP as well.

I'd already say the Fantasy IP is worth basically nothing and that if 40k gets a similar reboot it's value will disappear too. The reason to buy Fantasy as an IP was for the 30 years of history behind it, AoS just launched and it's only value is in the names of a few special characters at this point. It would be way easier and cheaper to make your own mildly original high fantasy setting than buy AoS.

AllSeeingSkink wrote:
I think we'll have to agree to disagree. I think a large company like Disney or Hasbro would sooner create their own IP and pay for the advertising to make it more recognisable than 40k ever is. The average advertising campaign for a movie generates more mainstream knowledge of an IP. Such an advertising campaign is expensive and out of the realm of most wargaming companies, but I think big companies would rather just pay to market an IP than buy any of GW's IPs.

But "recognizable" and "popular" are two very different things. Disney could dump tons of money into a marketing campaign and make everyone aware of their new IP, but there's no guarantee that people would like it. History is filled with failed IPs that never went anywhere after the initial marketing budget ran out. With 40k, on the other hand, Disney/Hasbro/whoever would a popular IP with an existing fan base. There's no worrying about whether the financial investment in marketing is going to pay off because even if they can't add any new customers at all the existing fan base is sufficient for the IP to make a profit. And that kind of guarantee is worth something.


Automatically Appended Next Post:

 jonolikespie wrote:
Doesn't Hasbro only go after successful companies it can pick up, change very little about, and reap the rewards?

Which is what makes 40k appealing. There's really very little that needs to be done: a new edition of the rules (easy), advertising and market research (something any decent company already knows how to do), and new management (guaranteed if you buy the IP from GW). It's a strong IP with a lot of potential that is being held back by spectacularly bad management, get rid of GW and it should turn around very easily. And remember, even with GW's current failures they're still making a profit.

I'd already say the Fantasy IP is worth basically nothing and that if 40k gets a similar reboot it's value will disappear too. The reason to buy Fantasy as an IP was for the 30 years of history behind it, AoS just launched and it's only value is in the names of a few special characters at this point. It would be way easier and cheaper to make your own mildly original high fantasy setting than buy AoS.

I don't think the two IPs have that much in common. WHFB faced tons of competition because the market is saturated with generic fantasy miniatures and there usually isn't much difference between brands. So if you take away the community's loyalty to WHFB (by making AoS, for example) there's really no reason for a new customer to pick it over KoW or whatever. But with 40k there's no competition. Nobody has a full line of models with the same aesthetic, and nobody makes a large-scale 28mm game with tanks/aircraft/etc. So with 40k you're taking over a monopoly instead of just one brand among many.

 Peregrine wrote:

AllSeeingSkink wrote:
I think we'll have to agree to disagree. I think a large company like Disney or Hasbro would sooner create their own IP and pay for the advertising to make it more recognisable than 40k ever is. The average advertising campaign for a movie generates more mainstream knowledge of an IP. Such an advertising campaign is expensive and out of the realm of most wargaming companies, but I think big companies would rather just pay to market an IP than buy any of GW's IPs.

But "recognizable" and "popular" are two very different things. Disney could dump tons of money into a marketing campaign and make everyone aware of their new IP, but there's no guarantee that people would like it. History is filled with failed IPs that never went anywhere after the initial marketing budget ran out. With 40k, on the other hand, Disney/Hasbro/whoever would a popular IP with an existing fan base. There's no worrying about whether the financial investment in marketing is going to pay off because even if they can't add any new customers at all the existing fan base is sufficient for the IP to make a profit. And that kind of guarantee is worth something.

I don't think 40k is actually that popular. It's popular for a wargame, but I reckon it's still only about 100-200k customers world wide.

That's fine as a wargame.... but in the context of a big company like Disney the audience is still small enough that they'd have to see the grim darkness having a wider appeal and frankly I don't think it does have a very wide appeal.

I'm not saying I think the 40k IP is worth nothing... I'm saying I don't think the IP in and of itself is worth a whole lot outside of wargaming and even there the appeal is contingent on GW not fething it up like they are doing with WHFB and AoS.

Hasbro bought Wizards of the Coast not too long after Wizards bought TSR. That puts D&D and GI Joe under the same company. Disney bought Marvel, including all of Marvel's toy and game licensing. If GW was interested in a finacial backer, and acquisition by Hasbro makes sense. Disney's acquisition of Lucas Films and Marvel show an trend of diversifying into mature content, something Warhammer falls into.

Just saying. Was simply answering the question of which companies could purchase GW if it was an option. If GW wants a blockbuster "Space Marine the Movie", Disney has a pretty good track record.

SJ

i feel hat they are trying to make things to serious, think back to 2nd 4th and even 4th edition where they used to give you diy terrain tutorials, i never used them but they were fun.

 jonolikespie wrote:
Doesn't Hasbro only go after successful companies it can pick up, change very little about, and reap the rewards?

...

GW fits that bill. It's making good profits, has a legion of loyal fans, and could do a lot better if action were taken to reverse its recent decline in sales, by recruiting back the lapsed fans.

The WHFB IP isn't worthless or there wouldn't be a computer game about to launch (Total War:Hammer.) GW certainly ballsed up by canning the tabletop version of WHFB before the digital version could start to recruit new players.

That is the kind of error Hasbro could reverse after buying GW. All the artwork, moulds, text and everything you would need to reprint WHFB exists in GW's store rooms. I doubt it would take more than six months to make a 9th edition.

40K certainly has more than 200K customers, or DakkaDakka would not have 90K users, and GW would not have £110,000 K sales.