Forum adverts like this one are shown to any user who is not logged in. Join us by filling out a tiny 3 field form and you will get your own, free, dakka user account which gives a good range of benefits to you: No adverts like this in the forums anymore. Times and dates in your local timezone. Full tracking of what you have read so you can skip to your first unread post, easily see what has changed since you last logged in, and easily see what is new at a glance. Email notifications for threads you want to watch closely. Being a part of the oldest wargaming community on the net. If you are already a member then feel free to login now.

yeenoghu wrote:I am just bringing one guys opinion based on what I have seen in the news. Like it or dislike it, I doubt if I am the only one who feels this way and has only the facts I see presented. Maybe I'm the voice of ignorant american point of view, but if I am drawing these conclusions from the footage I get to see and the things I've been shown to read, maybe I can be the whipping boy for American ignorance I don't mind. It's only been a week since half of this country could even find egypt on a map for all I know.

Don't say the 'o' word, it only gets them angrier.

yeenoghu wrote:I heard the U.S. provides approximately 1/3 of the military budget there. I wonder who we can bill for that when people start talking about why the national debt is so high.

Well, US aid to Egypt is roughly half their total military budget, though it is uncertain to what degree our aid actually goes to the military.

More to the point, Egypt's military budget is only 3.6 billion dollars; meaning that our contribution is financially irrelevant to the US.

yeenoghu wrote:
That didn't work very well for the U.S.S.R. when it fell apart either.

Democracy rarely works. Most nations have been democratic at least once in their history, but most nations quickly fail to sustain such practices.

yeenoghu wrote:
Change is great, but they kind of just thrust this on the rest of the world at a time of their chosing with a 'damn the consequences' attitude. No country that big and crucially located can ignore that the world is watching. A stable and predictable government there, no matter how bad, is better than an unstable rule of anarchy.

For us, maybe, but maybe not for them. They have no reason, at the moment, to give a damn about anything that the West wants.

yeenoghu wrote:
If they don't have someone ready to step in, the Military would seem to be the defacto interim power. That's such a move foreward!

In Indonesia and Brazil, it was.

They'll be given a reason to give a damn what the west wants if the suez canal becomes an issue won't they?

yeenoghu wrote:They'll be given a reason to give a damn what the west wants if the suez canal becomes an issue won't they?

Maybe, maybe not.

Do you want to pay for the invasion?

Anyway, tracers, meaning military, currently being fired in Cairo.

Time to cancel my summer semester at AUC.

Yeah, this is going to hell in a handbasket. Attacking our reporters and now this, I wonder when we move in to get US citizens out if we have any left.

Does anyone in the U.S. get to make that decision? I didn't want to pay for Iraq or Afghanistan either but I am.

I'm not saying it's likely but what if the gameshow winner new guy decides to be "progressive" and all pro-Egypt and starts messing with the way things were to make a bigger buck off of it for his country? That canal is pretty crucial, if not the most crucial reason to care what Egypt ends up like after this, at least as far as international trade and economy is concerned.

All the holy war shiite are an issue of fighting over that just should have stopped about the same time the earth started revolving around the sun, but they are a worry to more sensible people who don't want to die in a firestorm because of other people's delusions.

Economics and shipping concerns everybody though, no matter what stories you believe or how you pronounce "god". Of course if you're an archaeologist or something you might care about the fate of Egyptian politics allowing people to see the sites or not, but mostly it's that canal that puts Egypt on the map of "places to worry about the fate of" from what I can tell.

halonachos wrote:Yeah, this is going to hell in a handbasket. Attacking our reporters and now this, I wonder when we move in to get US citizens out if we have any left.

State Department just put out the emergency call for embassy flights.

The US state department just advised all americans in Egypt to leave the country immediately.

Ninja'd I guess.

Geeze, this is pretty bad. Hopefully they can keep the extremists out of the power vacuum.

yeenoghu wrote:
I'm not saying it's likely but what if the gameshow winner new guy decides to be "progressive" and all pro-Egypt and starts messing with the way things were to make a bigger buck off of it for his country? That canal is pretty crucial, if not the most crucial reason to care what Egypt ends up like after this, at least as far as international trade and economy is concerned.

Still probably cheaper and more politically popular than war.

dogma wrote:

yeenoghu wrote:
I'm not saying it's likely but what if the gameshow winner new guy decides to be "progressive" and all pro-Egypt and starts messing with the way things were to make a bigger buck off of it for his country? That canal is pretty crucial, if not the most crucial reason to care what Egypt ends up like after this, at least as far as international trade and economy is concerned.

Still probably cheaper and more politically popular than war.

If that happens they'll kick more than just America in the nuts. They can block off the canal, but if the entire world is placing political pressure on them that attitude won't last long.

Military has still been reported as neutral. I hope they stay neutral during this. The US, although this has been said before, is now backing the push for a new government. But with the reports of tracer fire, how long before we really get this civil war going?

yeenoghu wrote:Does anyone in the U.S. get to make that decision? I didn't want to pay for Iraq or Afghanistan either but I am.

Of course they do! They're called the President and Congress.

I'm not saying it's likely but what if the gameshow winner new guy decides to be "progressive" and all pro-Egypt and starts messing with the way things were to make a bigger buck off of it for his country? That canal is pretty crucial, if not the most crucial reason to care what Egypt ends up like after this, at least as far as international trade and economy is concerned.

I'll grant that the Suez Canal is incredibly important to international trade, but if someone starts messing with that too badly Egypt is going to find themselves in a world of hurt. It probably won't end up with military intervention like in the 50's, but due to Egypt's lack of natural resources and weak economy nations could cut support or use economic pressure to convince them it's not a good idea.

All the holy war shiite are an issue of fighting over that just should have stopped about the same time the earth started revolving around the sun, but they are a worry to more sensible people who don't want to die in a firestorm because of other people's delusions.

Wait, what? Egypt is primarily a Sunni country, and according to their census there are only a few thousand Shi'a Muslims there. I fail to see the relevance.

Economics and shipping concerns everybody though, no matter what stories you believe or how you pronounce "god". Of course if you're an archaeologist or something you might care about the fate of Egyptian politics allowing people to see the sites or not, but mostly it's that canal that puts Egypt on the map of "places to worry about the fate of" from what I can tell.

You know, that and the fact that Egypt has been friendly to the West and played a leading role in Arab politics for years. They tend to be trendsetters, and have cooperated extensively with the Israeli government to safeguard the current pseudo peace.

halonachos wrote:
If that happens they'll kick more than just America in the nuts. They can block off the canal, but if the entire world is placing political pressure on them that attitude won't last long.

Who said anything about blocking it?

If I were running Egypt I would charge 5-6 times more than they currently do for usage.

Extort those Western pricks!

dogma wrote:

halonachos wrote:
If that happens they'll kick more than just America in the nuts. They can block off the canal, but if the entire world is placing political pressure on them that attitude won't last long.

Who said anything about blocking it?

If I were running Egypt I would charge 5-6 times more than they currently do for usage.

Extort those Western pricks!

Even if they just raise prices I'm pretty sure the world can out muscle Egypt politically. Sure the world will suffer momentarily due to increased shipping time but in the end Egypt would most likely give in when their economy hits the fan.

Nobody would want to pay that charge. May as well block it, you'll get the same reaction.

This "all Americans get out now" is pretty fresh huh? Last news of any length I saw was this morning since all the basic cable stations are going on and on about issnow in the midwest, with an occasional snippett about egypt.

Just got to ask myself, what kind of gak hears a whole room full of people screaming "hey gak, we hate you! leave our party" and wants to go get another beer from the keg?

AS far as where the gak goes for his afterparty, who cares? there's a solution for that pretty quick and final if it really becomes an issue.

Ammended the evacuation order, telling americans to wait for the curfew to end now.

And we'll have no choice but to pay it! Yay! Now my shipments from China will cost more. But hey, remember the last time they tried to nationalize/close off the canal? Suez Crisis ring a bell?

But in any case, yeah this is oging to hell....it could simply be that the military is neutral, but some civillians have gotten their hands on military weaponry of some kind. Probably not all that hard...the only problem is that this could escalate enough that the military HAS to force a crack down on the country to prevent a civil war, and given the crucial position Egypt has in both the Middle East and the world at large? The last thing we want is a civil war...military crackdown is bad, but not as bad as it could be. As dogma pointed out, sometimes the military taking power isn't a bad thing. It's a bad thing from the Western pov, but alot of things are 'bad' from the Western pov.

Edit: The only problem is that increasing prices ISN'T the same as closing it. People WILL pay it. It's either pay it, or sail around Africa, and unless you're driving a nuclear powered container ship, the fuel costs alone would make it worth paying the toll to go through the canal. Even IF you're nuclear powered, the time delay for sailing around Africa would probably make paying the new increased toll preferable.

The Suez Canal is not a bridge where if it's too expensive you go and find a nother one. It's much more important than that.

halonachos wrote:
Even if they just raise prices I'm pretty sure the world can out muscle Egypt politically. Sure the world will suffer momentarily due to increased shipping time but in the end Egypt would most likely give in when their economy hits the fan.

Most of their economy is derived from internal consumption, and trade with the Arab world.

They can, and should, raise prices for canal use.

I'm all for states refusing to allow Western extortion.

The news seems to be hinting that the US is preparing to let the military do its thing. Civilians may have gotten military hardware. This needs to end before friday, or it goes to hell in a handbasket real fast.

Why? charging for the fact of their location on the map? The nations they would be effecting can pretty well blow them off the map if they really want to get possessive about it. I wonder if declaring the canal as International Waters for the greater posterity of the whole world could be an option on the table.

Happygrunt wrote:The news seems to be hinting that the US is preparing to let the military do its thing. Civilians may have gotten military hardware. This needs to end before friday, or it goes to hell in a handbasket real fast.

So is the tracer fire military or civilians with military hardware

Happygrunt wrote:The news seems to be hinting that the US is preparing to let the military do its thing. Civilians may have gotten military hardware. This needs to end before friday, or it goes to hell in a handbasket real fast.

Nah, the military is probably siding with Mubarak. This is an old Mugabe trick. The military "stands by" while plain clothes soldiers do the kicking.

The US Department of State is, apparently, trying to sway the military by threatening the removal of aid. We're very clearly siding with the protesters now.


Automatically Appended Next Post:

yeenoghu wrote:Why? charging for the fact of their location on the map? The nations they would be effecting can pretty well blow them off the map if they really want to get possessive about it. I wonder if declaring the canal as International Waters for the greater posterity of the whole world could be an option on the table.

Sure, just like subjecting US soldiers to the ICC is on the table.

If only Mubaraks current location could mysteriously explode while an F22 mysteriously loses fuel. It would be so much easier if we could kill tyrants who war on their own people.

I wouldn't be surprised at all if he doesn't see saturday. It sure would simplify the thing, and he hasn't gone into a cave or anything yet.

I don't claim to know the minds of Egyptian soldiers, but from what I have seen, it really seems that they want no part of it, which means to me that they are with the people, but have to maintain their honor of their uniform by being 'ready' as is their duty, instead of just violently putting down the civil unrest. Doing nothing looks to me like sympathy.

Uh, the violence has been from the pro-Mubarak crowd, and the soldiers are letting it happen.

That basically means state endorsement.

yeenoghu wrote:Why? charging for the fact of their location on the map? The nations they would be effecting can pretty well blow them off the map if they really want to get possessive about it. I wonder if declaring the canal as International Waters for the greater posterity of the whole world could be an option on the table.

Because they CAN. States have never been the most....altruistic of actors, and tend to act for whats in their best interests. Additionally....what purpose would blowing up Egypt serve? Not only will it make the world hate whichever country did it, but they'll likely damage the canal as well destroying any benefits the most.

And yeah, like dogma said it's POSSIBLE in the sense that it is POSSIBLE that this world is just a game of Sims 500000000000000 running on some guys computer a few hundred years in the future. It's extremely unlikely, what benefit would they get? ....Nothing. What do they lose? Money! Guess which way they're likely to go, no matter who's in charge?

Edit:

dogma wrote:Uh, the violence has been from the pro-Mubarak crowd, and the soldiers are letting it happen.

That basically means state endorsement.

Or it could mean, extremely unlikely though, given the nature of the Egyptian Military, that the military has its own problems right now.

From what CNN is saying the plain clothes officers are indeed beating the hell out of protestors for the low price of some viagra, not sure about the viagra thing though.

Now they're throwing molotovs and the news is saying that they're actually tearing up the roads for throwing material.

I do believe this qualifies as 'hell in a handbasket'. I'd almost welcome a military crack down now....

I have seen plainclothes in a riot before, specifically doing stuff when a camera is rolling and cops are nearby, to give police a good excuse and news a good way of rationalizing them. That's here in the United States too. I wouldn't be a bit surprised. All it takes is one guy to make the rest of them look dangerous.

ChrisWWII wrote:I do believe this qualifies as 'hell in a handbasket'. I'd almost welcome a military crack down now....

Yeah, when you start using infrastructure as a weapon you've hit...rock bottom.