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I am working on something but it will not be ready for a while. Compooters.
Why not say this. 1/3 in chance of a direct hit. Depending on the size of the enemy unit, you will start losing models hit depending on how far it scatters. After that you have to start getting picky. But you can make an approximation. I would say it would be ... 15% accurate.
So say you have 10 Space Marines, 1.5" apart in 5x2 formation.
If it scatters 1" you probably have a 50% chance of getting 3 and a 50% chance of getting 2. 3 if it goes left to right, 2 if it goes up and down.
If it scatters 2" you have a 50% chance of getting 3 and 50% chance of getting 1.
If it scatters 3", the formation is 11" wide so you are still getting hits left to right but not up and down and you are probably losing the diagonals, too.
etc etc.
Either that or you can just say it does d3 hits. d3+1 for BS4.
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