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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2009/06/26 00:32:08
Subject: Phoenix Lords and Wraithguard
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Guardsman with Flashlight
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Looking at the Eldar Codex, I suddenly had an idea of how to make an unusual and perhaps effective unit. What would happen if you combined a Phoenix Lord with a unit of Wraithguard?
Seems to me that Wraithguard, while extremely tough and exquipped with devestating weapons, suffer from short range, slow speed, and mediocre CC ability.
Well, adding a Phoenix Lord in the mix might change that up a bit. Here are my ideas:
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1) 10 Wraithguard + SpiritSeer with Conceal + Maugan Ra (591 pts) --- Highly expensive, but is a tough troops choice that can pump out 5 S6 shots at 36" range while it relentlessly advances, plus it has a minimum 5+ cover save and an average T of 6. If it gets into CC, Maugan Ra will strike at I7 with 4 WS 7, S6 power weapon attacks, almost certainly blunting the force of almost any charging unit. If anyone, infantry or vehicle, is foolish enough to end up within 12" then they will quickly be sent to their doom with 10 Wraithcannons.
2) 5 Wraithguard + SpiritSeer with Destructor + Jain Zar + Wave Serpent (496pts) --- Pop out of the WS, light up an enemy vehicle or unit of elite infantry (Jain Zar's special Triskle helps with Termies), then still able to recieve a countercharge, since good old Jain Zar has multiple S6 PW attacks and will almost always strike first.
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Anyhow, just some off-beat ideas about making Wraithguard more effective and surprising your opponent.
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2009/06/26 03:54:18
Subject: Re:Phoenix Lords and Wraithguard
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Swift Swooping Hawk
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There was a thread in YMTC recently that may have some bearing on this topic.
It was pretty strongly laid out that an IC with stealth adds that to any unit that he joins. If you dont like that idea, go argue with Gwar in YMTC.
So going with that idea, add Karandas to a wratihguard unit that has a warlock with conceal. The unit will always get either its 3+ armor save or else a 4+ cover save. And Karandas has 6 str8 attacks in cc (7 on the charge) to help make sure that you win those brawls.
The absolute icing on this cake would be to have eldrad in the army as well, in some nice safe serpent somewhere. Because then eldrad can reposition this unit at the start of the game, and then hit it with fortune the first turn. Eldrad then goes off to join the other eldar forces while the wraithguard uses run to move 7-12" towards the target ... either an objective or a juicy section of kill points. While having rerolled 3+ or 4+ cover saves the first turn.
After the recent thread I have tried this out once, exactly as described in a 2000 point game. Placed the wraithguard unit in front of the corner where my objective/ base was located, put eldrad inside a serpent with a DA squad across from my SM opponents objective. Placed virtually the rest of my army around my objective as well. Then used eldrad to redeploy the wraithguard and a serpent of firedragons before the first turn, fortuned the wraithguard and dragon's serpent and ran eldrad's serpent back towards my home objective. Was an amazing slaughter, partially because it completely caught the SM player off guard. My "castle" unit turned into my threat unit and he just couldnt adjust to that.
It is a huge point sink, but it is an amazingly tough unit.
Sliggoth
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Why does my eldar army run three fire prisms? Because the rules wont let me use four in (regular 40k). |
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2009/06/26 13:03:14
Subject: Phoenix Lords and Wraithguard
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Guardsman with Flashlight
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Another possibility is pairing up a Phoenix Lord with Harlequins.... their veil of Tears helps keep a foot-slogging Phoenix Lord protected and the PL adds both more CC ability and, in most case, some strong shooting ability to make up for the Harlequins' lack of firepower. Also, the entire unit can fleet, so that works well together (as opposed to a PL with Wraithguard) and the whole unit strikes at very high Initiative.
I think the best PL for Harlequins might either be Fuegan (his Fire Pike pairs well with the Fusion Pistols to give the squad some anti-tank ability) or Karandras (his S8 Scorpions Claw give the Squad a PF).
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2009/06/26 14:06:04
Subject: Re:Phoenix Lords and Wraithguard
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Proud Phantom Titan
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Sliggoth wrote:There was a thread in YMTC recently that may have some bearing on this topic. It was pretty strongly laid out that an IC with stealth adds that to any unit that he joins. If you dont like that idea, go argue with Gwar in YMTC. I mustn't shouted loudly enough as the one to bring it up  ... any way another good choice is surprisingly Fuegan; in the back of a wave serpent with a unit of wrath guard he survives allot longer then if he was with Fire dragons. He improves their chances of killing vehicles (dreadnoughts especially). FNP's also a nice bonus so i find my self allocating to him first happy in the knowledge that chances of him taking a wound are only 1/12.
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This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2009/06/26 14:06:17
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2009/06/26 15:39:18
Subject: Re:Phoenix Lords and Wraithguard
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Towering Hierophant Bio-Titan
UK
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I do not want to sell you deathsticks....
I shall rethink my postings....
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This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2009/06/26 16:48:14
H.B.M.C. wrote:Friend of mine just sent me this:
"The Tyranid Codex, where I learned the truth about despair, as will you. There's a reason why this codex is the worst hell on earth... Hope. ." Too be fair.. it's all worked out quite well!
Heh. |
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2009/06/26 15:44:00
Subject: Phoenix Lords and Wraithguard
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Proud Phantom Titan
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Not here Razerous ... this isn't YMTC ... (and you lost that argument)
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This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2009/06/26 15:47:00
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2009/06/26 15:52:50
Subject: Phoenix Lords and Wraithguard
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5th God of Chaos! (Yea'rly!)
The Great State of Texas
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Modquisition on:
Agreed, lets keep the YMTC aspects in YMTC the call and tactics in tactics boys.
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-"Wait a minute.....who is that Frazz is talking to in the gallery? Hmmm something is going on here.....Oh.... it seems there is some dispute over video taping of some sort......Frazz is really upset now..........wait a minute......whats he go there.......is it? Can it be?....Frazz has just unleashed his hidden weiner dog from his mini bag, while quoting shakespeares "Let slip the dogs the war!!" GG
-"Don't mind Frazzled. He's just Dakka's crazy old dude locked in the attic. He's harmless. Mostly."
-TBone the Magnificent 1999-2014, Long Live the King!
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2009/06/26 21:25:12
Subject: Phoenix Lords and Wraithguard
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Long-Range Ultramarine Land Speeder Pilot
Dallas, TX
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Yeah, I'm going to have to review my wife's Eldar codex now. I'm no world-class rules lawyer, but my understanding was that a Phoenix Lord can only really be taken with his Disciples.
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Ultramarines Second Company - ~4000 points
Dark Eldar WIP - ~800 points
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2009/06/26 22:11:46
Subject: Re:Phoenix Lords and Wraithguard
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Towering Hierophant Bio-Titan
UK
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I know this isnt the YMDC section but its only aspect troops which cant be mixed in choosing. You cannot group Jain Zar (Howling Banshees) with Fire dragons.
If the unit is not an aspect warrior unit (i.e doesnt have an exarch upgrade possible) then it is not strickly an aspect warrior unit.
A good example of this is the ability to stick somone like Morgan Ra with some Harlequins. It is also a touch fluffy as Mr.Ra and the harlequins have worked together in the past (methinks, going on memory). Wraithguard, likewise wont have any restrictions to groupings.
In terms of effectiveness - There is no doubt.
In terms of cost-effectiveness, this is where you have to ask the question - is it worth it. In a transport, a wave serpent is only so strong, is it worth investing this many points into that one group. Not even a wave-serpent could withstand 500pts of anti-tank fire directed at it; so then you need to ask, is it worth having this many points tied up in a unit that may have to potentially foot-slog it?
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H.B.M.C. wrote:Friend of mine just sent me this:
"The Tyranid Codex, where I learned the truth about despair, as will you. There's a reason why this codex is the worst hell on earth... Hope. ." Too be fair.. it's all worked out quite well!
Heh. |
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2009/06/26 23:30:43
Subject: Re:Phoenix Lords and Wraithguard
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Proud Phantom Titan
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Razerous wrote:I know this isnt the YMDC section but its only aspect troops which cant be mixed in choosing. You cannot group Jain Zar (Howling Banshees) with Fire dragons. If the unit is not an aspect warrior unit (i.e doesnt have an exarch upgrade possible) then it is not strickly an aspect warrior unit. A good example of this is the ability to stick somone like Morgan Ra with some Harlequins. It is also a touch fluffy as Mr.Ra and the harlequins have worked together in the past (methinks, going on memory). Wraithguard, likewise wont have any restrictions to groupings. In terms of effectiveness - There is no doubt. In terms of cost-effectiveness, this is where you have to ask the question - is it worth it. In a transport, a wave serpent is only so strong, is it worth investing this many points into that one group. Not even a wave-serpent could withstand 500pts of anti-tank fire directed at it; so then you need to ask, is it worth having this many points tied up in a unit that may have to potentially foot-slog it? since I often actually walked a 5 man wrath guard unit across the board this holds no fear (go on shoot them ignore my more fragile units)
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This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2009/06/26 23:32:55
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2009/06/27 01:19:07
Subject: Re:Phoenix Lords and Wraithguard
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Swift Swooping Hawk
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Pointwise it probably isnt worth it. But the way to do it is full bore, take 10 wraithguard so that its a scoring unit. Maybe run it as part of an elfzilla list as a castle formation. The idea is that yes its slow moving but it can handle anything in the game. Wraithguard mega-unit plus 3 wraithlords tries to overwhelm an opponents heavy shooting capacity. Its not such a great list against hordes but then again, we arent seeing many horde lists now.
@Tri I mentioned Gwar instead of you because hes a better boogie man character
Sliggoth
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Why does my eldar army run three fire prisms? Because the rules wont let me use four in (regular 40k). |
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2009/06/27 03:02:03
Subject: Re:Phoenix Lords and Wraithguard
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Towering Hierophant Bio-Titan
UK
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Tri wrote:Razerous wrote:I know this isnt the YMDC section but its only aspect troops which cant be mixed in choosing. You cannot group Jain Zar (Howling Banshees) with Fire dragons.
If the unit is not an aspect warrior unit (i.e doesnt have an exarch upgrade possible) then it is not strickly an aspect warrior unit.
A good example of this is the ability to stick somone like Morgan Ra with some Harlequins. It is also a touch fluffy as Mr.Ra and the harlequins have worked together in the past (methinks, going on memory). Wraithguard, likewise wont have any restrictions to groupings.
In terms of effectiveness - There is no doubt.
In terms of cost-effectiveness, this is where you have to ask the question - is it worth it. In a transport, a wave serpent is only so strong, is it worth investing this many points into that one group. Not even a wave-serpent could withstand 500pts of anti-tank fire directed at it; so then you need to ask, is it worth having this many points tied up in a unit that may have to potentially foot-slog it?
since I often actually walked a 5 man wrath guard unit across the board this holds no fear (go on shoot them ignore my more fragile units)
A single str 9+ ap 3+ blast will either annhilate or severly injure the squad & then a few lascannon rounds to plink off the lone phoenix lord. Without an invunerable save I think they are too vunerable to attack without a large ablative wound shield (big squad) or/and a transport.
For 365-400pts worth of army, its a prime target few a few key strong hits. Those kinda weapons are fielded in most armies & would be wasted on anyway whilst the heavy bolter equivelents are used here.
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H.B.M.C. wrote:Friend of mine just sent me this:
"The Tyranid Codex, where I learned the truth about despair, as will you. There's a reason why this codex is the worst hell on earth... Hope. ." Too be fair.. it's all worked out quite well!
Heh. |
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2009/06/27 04:07:49
Subject: Re:Phoenix Lords and Wraithguard
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Junior Officer with Laspistol
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Razerous wrote:Tri wrote:Razerous wrote:I know this isnt the YMDC section but its only aspect troops which cant be mixed in choosing. You cannot group Jain Zar (Howling Banshees) with Fire dragons.
If the unit is not an aspect warrior unit (i.e doesnt have an exarch upgrade possible) then it is not strickly an aspect warrior unit.
A good example of this is the ability to stick somone like Morgan Ra with some Harlequins. It is also a touch fluffy as Mr.Ra and the harlequins have worked together in the past (methinks, going on memory). Wraithguard, likewise wont have any restrictions to groupings.
In terms of effectiveness - There is no doubt.
In terms of cost-effectiveness, this is where you have to ask the question - is it worth it. In a transport, a wave serpent is only so strong, is it worth investing this many points into that one group. Not even a wave-serpent could withstand 500pts of anti-tank fire directed at it; so then you need to ask, is it worth having this many points tied up in a unit that may have to potentially foot-slog it?
Don't forget that Phoenix Lords all have Eternal Warrior. I will very often run Maugan Ra all by his lonesome (preferably in cover) simply because he takes at least three lascannons to take out (with perfect rolls for my enemy) where those three lascannons can kill three wave serpents with a lot of luck (though not unheard of by any means).
since I often actually walked a 5 man wrath guard unit across the board this holds no fear (go on shoot them ignore my more fragile units)
A single str 9+ ap 3+ blast will either annhilate or severly injure the squad & then a few lascannon rounds to plink off the lone phoenix lord. Without an invunerable save I think they are too vunerable to attack without a large ablative wound shield (big squad) or/and a transport.
For 365-400pts worth of army, its a prime target few a few key strong hits. Those kinda weapons are fielded in most armies & would be wasted on anyway whilst the heavy bolter equivelents are used here.
Don't forget that Phoenix Lords all have Eternal Warrior. I will very often run Maugan Ra all by his lonesome (preferably in cover) simply because he takes at least three lascannons to take out (with perfect rolls for my enemy) where those three lascannons can kill three wave serpents with a lot of luck (though not unheard of by any means).
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This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2009/06/27 04:08:30
Why did the berzerker cross the road?
Gwar! wrote:Willydstyle has it correct
Gwar! wrote:Yup you're absolutely right
New to the game and can't win? Read this.
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2009/06/27 13:04:16
Subject: Re:Phoenix Lords and Wraithguard
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Swift Swooping Hawk
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And a good counter to the str9 ap3 blast is to be running with a conceal warlock and karandas. A blast marker hits 2-3 models, one save goes onto karandas' 2+ save and the other 1-2 onto the 4+ cover save. If a farseer is in the area then its a rerolled save as well.
Its not a cheap unit by any stretch, but it is indeed a very tough unit. The main problem an elfzilla army usually has is the lack of good cc, the phoenix lord is an answer (albeit an expensive answer) to that problem.
If its a kill points mission then the elfzilla list is in good shape, it gives up KP very slowly. If its a mission with two objectives then its VERY difficult to get anything close to the eldar base, so it comes down to whether the other objective is contested or not on the last turn. Its in a general objective mission that the elfzilla list really has problems since its not easily going to go after 3-5 objectives.
Its certainly not going to be an easy list to play but it is not going to be a list that gets rolled up fast.
Sliggoth
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Why does my eldar army run three fire prisms? Because the rules wont let me use four in (regular 40k). |
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2009/06/27 13:17:55
Subject: Re:Phoenix Lords and Wraithguard
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Proud Phantom Titan
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Razerous wrote:Tri wrote:Razerous wrote:I know this isnt the YMDC section but its only aspect troops which cant be mixed in choosing. You cannot group Jain Zar (Howling Banshees) with Fire dragons. If the unit is not an aspect warrior unit (i.e doesnt have an exarch upgrade possible) then it is not strickly an aspect warrior unit. A good example of this is the ability to stick somone like Morgan Ra with some Harlequins. It is also a touch fluffy as Mr.Ra and the harlequins have worked together in the past (methinks, going on memory). Wraithguard, likewise wont have any restrictions to groupings. In terms of effectiveness - There is no doubt. In terms of cost-effectiveness, this is where you have to ask the question - is it worth it. In a transport, a wave serpent is only so strong, is it worth investing this many points into that one group. Not even a wave-serpent could withstand 500pts of anti-tank fire directed at it; so then you need to ask, is it worth having this many points tied up in a unit that may have to potentially foot-slog it? since I often actually walked a 5 man wrath guard unit across the board this holds no fear (go on shoot them ignore my more fragile units) A single str 9+ ap 3+ blast will either annhilate or severly injure the squad & then a few lascannon rounds to plink off the lone phoenix lord. Without an invunerable save I think they are too vunerable to attack without a large ablative wound shield (big squad) or/and a transport. For 365-400pts worth of army, its a prime target few a few key strong hits. Those kinda weapons are fielded in most armies & would be wasted on anyway whilst the heavy bolter equivelents are used here. In cover with fortune no. Inside a Wave serpent they have to first kill said serpent then have enough anti tank to kill the WG. Str8-10 (all counts as 8 thank to the energy field rule) AP1 shooting with BS 5 at a Flat out Wave serpent is 150/1296, 0.116 ,or 11.6% so 8.6 shots to kill it. Str8-10 (all counts as 8 thank to the energy field rule) AP2 shooting with BS 5 at a Flat out Wave serpent is 105/1296, 0.081 ,or 8.1% so 12.3 shots to kill it. Str8-10 (all counts as 8 thank to the energy field rule) AP1 shooting with BS 4 at a Flat out Wave serpent is 120/1296, 0.093 ,or 9.3% so 10.8 shots to kill it. Str8-10 (all counts as 8 thank to the energy field rule) AP2 shooting with BS 4 at a Flat out Wave serpent is 84/1296, 0.065 ,or 6.5% so 15.4 shots to kill it. Str8-10 (all counts as 8 thank to the energy field rule) AP1 shooting with BS 3 at a Flat out Wave serpent is 90/1296, 0.069 ,or 6.9% so 14.4 shots to kill it. Str8-10 (all counts as 8 thank to the energy field rule) AP2 shooting with BS 3 at a Flat out Wave serpent is 63/1296, 0.049 ,or 4.9% so 20.6 shots to kill it. I'll take my chances (note these odds get even lower if you fortune the WS)
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This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2009/06/27 13:19:30
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2009/06/27 18:15:22
Subject: Re:Phoenix Lords and Wraithguard
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Towering Hierophant Bio-Titan
UK
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Tri - Now were talking about both HQ slots, 210pts of wraithguard & another 300pts worth of HQ plus a wave serpent? (I thought they were apose to be walking across the board). Sure its hard but its so many points that can be stopped with a bit of effort. Like I said, they need the transport so im not sure why your trying to convince me that they need transports., your the one whom mentioned walking them across the board? Against an actual flat-out moving wave-serpent, you need about 50 str 4 attacks to put one glance on it. Thats either 25 standard charging troops or about 13 assault troops.
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This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2009/06/27 18:16:22
H.B.M.C. wrote:Friend of mine just sent me this:
"The Tyranid Codex, where I learned the truth about despair, as will you. There's a reason why this codex is the worst hell on earth... Hope. ." Too be fair.. it's all worked out quite well!
Heh. |
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2009/06/27 18:33:19
Subject: Phoenix Lords and Wraithguard
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Proud Phantom Titan
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No your combining my statements into one.
I said I have walked 5 wraithguard across the board (keep them in cover is easy enough)
I said If fortuned they don't die
I said a WS + 5 wrathguard + Warlock + Fuegan worked well
And I've said WS are hard to kill
Also one glance in CC doesn't give you a downed WS. Odds to kill a WS with Str4 in CC is 1/216. (1/6 to hit 1/6 to glance 1/6 to immobilise)
edit ... Ok you might also get Weapon destroyed results .... odds still 1/216 and you'd need 3 weapons destroyed results so 1/10077696 odds of doing it that way.
so in total you'd Still need 215.999 attacks to guarantee a kill
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This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2009/06/27 18:51:25
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2009/06/27 19:33:16
Subject: Phoenix Lords and Wraithguard
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Longtime Dakkanaut
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So what, 2 units of orks
Jack
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The rules:
1) Style over Substance.
2) Attitude is Everything.
3) Always take it to the Edge.
4) Break the Rules. |
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2009/06/27 19:51:54
Subject: Phoenix Lords and Wraithguard
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Proud Phantom Titan
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2unitsx30BoyxA4 ... 240 Yep if i was in charge range of 60 boys without P.Klaws then indeed I'd likely lose a WS.
(note P.Klaws only take about 16.6 attacks (13/216) so two nobs stand a 50% of doing it by them selves) (always avoid charge range of P.Fists)
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2009/06/27 19:53:56
Subject: Phoenix Lords and Wraithguard
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Moustache-twirling Princeps
About to eat your Avatar...
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I am pretty sure you cant get more than 20 of any small based infantry into cc as you actually need to be in base to base contact with the tank to attack, as far as I know.
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2009/06/27 20:01:43
Subject: Phoenix Lords and Wraithguard
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Junior Officer with Laspistol
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Wrexasaur wrote:I am pretty sure you cant get more than 20 of any small based infantry into cc as you actually need to be in base to base contact with the tank to attack, as far as I know.
You are incorrect. You can attack a vehicle in CC if you are within the normal distance of a b2b friendly to be "engaged."
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Why did the berzerker cross the road?
Gwar! wrote:Willydstyle has it correct
Gwar! wrote:Yup you're absolutely right
New to the game and can't win? Read this.
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2009/06/27 20:15:52
Subject: Phoenix Lords and Wraithguard
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Proud Phantom Titan
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WS is roughly A D8" Circle Pie R Square Abbra cadabra magic .... 50 in first circle we all know if you can place them in \//\\/ formation so easily 200 could be within 2" ... getting them all into place well good luck but 250 could be within 2" or in BtB contact
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2009/06/28 04:06:20
Subject: Re:Phoenix Lords and Wraithguard
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Swift Swooping Hawk
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As long there are that many points sunk into the WS and the unit inside then why wouldnt the WS have vectored engines? That would mean that an immobilized result is just that, an immobilized WS.
Of course, you are still going to be stuck inside the transport surrounded by 60 boyz but thats another turn's problem
Sliggoth
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Why does my eldar army run three fire prisms? Because the rules wont let me use four in (regular 40k). |
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2009/06/28 12:01:14
Subject: Re:Phoenix Lords and Wraithguard
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Proud Phantom Titan
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Sliggoth wrote:As long there are that many points sunk into the WS and the unit inside then why wouldnt the WS have vectored engines? That would mean that an immobilized result is just that, an immobilized WS.
Of course, you are still going to be stuck inside the transport surrounded by 60 boyz but thats another turn's problem
Sliggoth
I'd rather take a Str4 hit each and deal with the orks. At least that way i get one round of shooting and the charge ... Str3 orks are alot less scarry when your T6 with a 3+ save (1/36 with fortune 1/54 ... if i get lucky and kill the nob's might be a chance of win combat ... fugans screwed though since he's going to make his attacks and then be set upon by all the orks that can reach him)
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2009/06/28 18:33:17
Subject: Re:Phoenix Lords and Wraithguard
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Junior Officer with Laspistol
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Tri wrote:Sliggoth wrote:As long there are that many points sunk into the WS and the unit inside then why wouldnt the WS have vectored engines? That would mean that an immobilized result is just that, an immobilized WS.
Of course, you are still going to be stuck inside the transport surrounded by 60 boyz but thats another turn's problem
Sliggoth
I'd rather take a Str4 hit each and deal with the orks. At least that way i get one round of shooting and the charge ... Str3 orks are alot less scarry when your T6 with a 3+ save (1/36 with fortune 1/54 ... if i get lucky and kill the nob's might be a chance of win combat ... fugans screwed though since he's going to make his attacks and then be set upon by all the orks that can reach him)
Transported models don't take a str 4 hit from a destroyed-wrecked result.
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Why did the berzerker cross the road?
Gwar! wrote:Willydstyle has it correct
Gwar! wrote:Yup you're absolutely right
New to the game and can't win? Read this.
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2009/06/28 19:55:30
Subject: Re:Phoenix Lords and Wraithguard
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Bush? No, Eldar Ranger
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Tri wrote:
Str8-10 (all counts as 8 thank to the energy field rule) AP1 shooting with BS 5 at a Flat out Wave serpent is 150/1296, 0.116 ,or 11.6%
so 8.6 shots to kill it.
I believe this is not the most helpful way to interpret the probability.
Consider the example I quoted.
I agree that there is a 11.6% chance to kill the Wave Serpent.
So --->
1 shot = 11.6% chance to kill a WS - so around 1 in 10 times that you put the WS in this position it will die
2 shots = 21.7% chance to kill a WS - so around 1 in 5 times that you put the WS in this position it will die
3 shots = 30.8% chance to kill a WS - so around 1 in 3 times that you put the WS in this position it will die
5 shots = 45.8% chance to kill a WS - so around 1 in 2 times that you put the WS in this position it will die
Automatically Appended Next Post: Once it becomes around 1 in 3 I don't like to risk the WS without good reason.
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This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2009/06/28 19:58:29
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2009/06/28 20:24:39
Subject: Phoenix Lords and Wraithguard
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Proud Phantom Titan
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Correct note that those value are only good for individuals shooting at a WS and the odds are higher for a single unit with lots of anti tank (4man devastator team for example). No from a game stand point where are you getting that much BS5 Anit tank from? Tau are the only ones i can think of and kill of and they would be one of my top priority to kill (yes i note they come with TL so if they did use a mark lights they could remove the covers save and shoot at me with BS5 with a reroll) moving down the list your much more likely to get one or 2 weapons in each squad (as mention devastators and heavy weapons squads are they exception) Which means that allot of my enemy's army will be aiming solely at one unit of my army. Not a bad things such as fire prisms, hiding at the back, can dodge the worst of 2-3 rounds of shooting.
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This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2009/06/28 20:26:46
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2009/06/29 00:09:00
Subject: Phoenix Lords and Wraithguard
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Bush? No, Eldar Ranger
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Tri wrote:Correct note that those value are only good for individuals shooting at a WS and the odds are higher for a single unit with lots of anti tank (4man devastator team for example).
No from a game stand point where are you getting that much BS5 Anit tank from? Tau are the only ones i can think of and kill of and they would be one of my top priority to kill (yes i note they come with TL so if they did use a mark lights they could remove the covers save and shoot at me with BS5 with a reroll)
Str8-10 (all counts as 8 thank to the energy field rule) AP1 shooting with BS 5 at a Flat out Wave serpent is 150/1296, 0.116 ,or 11.6%
so 8.6 shots to kill it.
I'm not sure what you mean. You suggested that it would take 8.6 BS 5 shots to kill it (note: 8 shots has a 63% chance of killing it). Surely that means you were talking about multiple shots? If none of the shots have happened yet it doesn't matter if they come from a single unit or multiple units.
I used BS 5 because you did, not because it had any bearing on a particular unit.
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This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2009/06/29 00:12:32
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2009/06/29 01:21:59
Subject: Phoenix Lords and Wraithguard
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Proud Phantom Titan
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Manimal wrote:
I'm not sure what you mean. You suggested that it would take 8.6 BS 5 shots to kill it (note: 8 shots has a 63% chance of killing it). Surely that means you were talking about multiple shots? If none of the shots have happened yet it doesn't matter if they come from a single unit or multiple units.
I used BS 5 because you did, not because it had any bearing on a particular unit.
no look if you want me to explain the exact difference between say 5 fire dragons and five units firing a single melta i will be happy to. Lets just leave it at a single large unit firing anti tank weapons has a better chance then the same number of guns firing singularly.
I used a range of common BS 3,4,5 with and without AP1 ... I mention the number of shots, "(note: 8 shots has a 63% chance of killing it)" because even shooting 25 times there's only 95% chance you kill it. There is never a 100% guaranteed kill because odd always get smaller. Personaly I think over 50% is a realistic goal quick and dirty way to get it is to take the odd and (1/X) it
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2009/06/29 01:50:35
Subject: Phoenix Lords and Wraithguard
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Bush? No, Eldar Ranger
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Right that's what I was pointing out. I saw no quick and dirty caveat.
5 single vs 5 in a unit given that none have shot.
Here I'll do it for you. Here is the calculation for 5 individual shots that have a 1/27 chance of some event.
N[1/27]
0.037037
In[7]:= (1 - .962963)
Out[7]= 0.037037
In[9]:= (1 -
0.03703699999999999)*0.03703699999999999 + 0.03703699999999999`
This is the chance for the 2nd one to have the result given that the first did not. This must be added to the chance that the first try had the result in order to get the total chance.
Out[9]= 0.0727023
In[10]:= (1 -
0.07270226063099997)*0.037037037037037035 + 0.07270226063099997`
repeated for 3rd
Out[10]= 0.107047
In[11]:= (1 -
0.10704662134837034)*0.03703699999999999 + 0.10704662134837034
In[12]:= (1 -
0.14011893563349073)*0.037037037037037035` + 0.14011893563349073`
Final result:
0.17196638246187995
Here is the calculation for 5 at once
In[13]:= N[1 - Binomial[5, 0]*(1/27)^0*(1 - 1/27)^(5 - 0)]
Out[13]= 0.171966
It is the same.
[ Automatically Appended Next Post: If you think about it, it has to work out this way. Otherwise rolling for your unit of 5 fire dragons one at a time would be different than rolling for them at the same time.
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This message was edited 9 times. Last update was at 2009/06/29 02:43:15
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