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With movies being available from your cable box, TV being watched on your computer full games on your console.
Do you think that we will see the death of physical media like DVDs and game discs any time soon?

Within the next 3.5 years at the latest

Why? I'm not sure, just sounded reasonable to me.

I'll start by saying that physical media can take the form of an endless amount of things, the overpriced food is at least a part of the cinematic experience that is the movie theater, seriously though how do they sell that stuff? I wonder this about stuff like DVD's some times, although the market is obviously there, I think the industry keeps it full of hot-air so they can keep on doing what they always have, which is basically take advantage of you through advertising.

At the point that advertising advertises advertising, you know you can let your brain explode in a fantastic shower of jargon and sparks.

This is pretty interesting and relevant to what I am referring to with the brain-bender: http://jargonism.wordpress.com/2007/07/16/you-have-to-tell-me-something-to-sell-me-anything/

I give our current distribution and manufacturing plan for most media about 2-5 years to drastically change.

The change will not be sudden mind you, we can already see this through very widely accepted use of torrents for all types of "illegal" media, and this can become a pretty complicated subject. Most younger people have at least thought of downloading "illegal" media, but some still wont, and they have the right to do that.

I think IP laws will have to be changed (In the U.S. at least) to some degree to keep most of Hollywood afloat quite frankly.

Another thing that will change is how we experience the movie theater, and yet again we can already see quite drastic changes in it's basic format. Everything from seating to air-conditioning, like your own lay-z-boy at some joints. I-MAX seems popular enough in my book (granted I skip most because it is nothing special to me) to become a standard format for all theater presentations.

Something important to not is how this will all effect the classic arts like stage plays, and concerts. We could be looking at a very strange cultural revolution of sorts where the lines between value and the sincere commitment to bring excellence (we need some real star wars prequels? I would apologize as George Lucas and just bite the bullet and re-do them).

I am the type of guy that would like to see the same movie made multiple times by different directors, but this is next to lunacy for most. I just find it interesting, after all many classic stories and fables have been adapted countless times by different directors (and actors and stuff too!) so I hardly see the difference.

"Note"
The depth of this discussion is infinite to me, so bring on the black hole people! Lets talk about this a bit.

"Sub-note"
My business theory is very simple, point A.)creation and B.)sale, on top of this I know that there is "good" business that strives towards a long-term and actually noble goal in some senses, and then there is "bad" business that doesn't strive to do anything, it just takes until it can't even run away from it's "crime".

If I were a shark I would eat all the fishies in the sea, but between you and me I prefer to just eat the bigger sharks by working in a pack, it is just more fun for everyone.

I don't think it will. People LIKE having physical things; They withstand the ravages of time better (HD's crash or get corrupted), and they can be transported for use easier (yes you can transport your laptop or game system, but then you have to hook it up to your friend's AV system, [which may or may not work correctly, Lan parties are always fraught with software/hardware conflicts] MUCH easier to just bring the disc and slot it in), and you can lend and borrow them (something the Media companies hate with all their hearts).
Yes all this could probably be available 'electronically' in the near future, but seriously do you really want the media companies to know exactly what you watch, when you watch, where you watch, how you watch, and with who you watch? If all media goes "E", then you won't have a choice about sending this information to the copywright holders, unless you hack the program... criminal.

My main argument as a consumer myself is in all honesty I want a tiny hard-drive over a massive collection of DVD's.

I actually dislike the fact that all collections of any kind have a tendency of taking up WAY too much space. If I owned all the movies I wanted on DVD, I would have a literal wall thousands of feet long, and dozens of feet high, not to mention the cost of the gnomes that would have to maintain my collection because I sure as hell wont.

I'll get pictures in a minute, it is really super-duper WOWZORZ what you can do with a chip nowadays, you only ate them before.

You can fit this...



Into this (4gb)...



Mind you, the rate that this technology is advancing you could have something on a pinhead in a matter of years if we are lucky.

I should also mention that the state of DVD cases is practically offensive to me, no forethought, just cheap as humanly possible most of the time.

This is a efficient, if not entirely obvious idea. But in no way any kind of real solution to the problem with DVD's.


There is some weird unwritten pact between the media, gaming/computer industry to make you think that you should not be using JUST computers, it really astounds me sometimes. Most people I know have a laptop or at least a relatively nice tower or two laying around to work with. This is what we need, not bunches of discs that have no inherent value besides keeping a niche industry alive. I could care less if businesses shut down, progress needs to be made so the economy can be restored.

Seriously though this whole Xbox 360, over PS2 thing is a big joke to me, extremely futile efforts being made to preserve a rift that is already becoming an obvious economical pitfall. We need to focus on what is important, and that boils down to efficiency. Promote efficiency through good and moral business that is moderated by the law just as much as there customers in the U.S. and we have a seriously strong economy in our future. The impacts of this could be extremely confusing at first, but the outcome is very clear and quite obvious IMHO.

"Note"

Lordhat wrote:...but then you have to hook it up to your friend's AV system...

AND? This is a huge misconception when it comes to technology, chances are your friends TV is going to be old.

The answer is not to get a new TV, but to let the TV just die, seriously go away TV you are no longer needed here.

I want affordable flat screens, and guess what, they are here and now, and totally capable of being part of a massive home entertainment system that is... a computer.

Call it what you want, a bit of know how and you will have a seriously hot system set-up in no time. Thinking that this is out of your means is pretty sheepish, just a idea that people like to spread around... not one that was engineered by an industry... no, not at all. And no the computer industry is not the TV industry, although both are technology the TV is a primitive toy in an age of rocket propelled alligator zebras.

First we have to figure our way around how we handle DRM. In its current form, it makes
ethereal media too volatile (see: Kindle)

malfred wrote:First we have to figure our way around how we handle DRM. In its current form, it makes
ethereal media too volatile (see: Kindle)

That's one good point. One way forwards is to move away from the concept of owning your individual copy, and go to subscription based access to content libraries.

Another point is that in many areas network speed is too slow to allow distribution of big content such as large games and movies.

While network speed is being improved, the demand for bandwidth keeps rising.

Kilkrazy wrote:...and go to subscription based access to content libraries.

NETFLIX.

Although I stopped getting Netflix for a lot of reasons, I was most surprised that they were not being extremely aggressive with their online film library.

If you take a look through it, most of it is utter and imperative crap that they use to beef up their libraries.

I know that they need special stuff to happen between them and other companies to gain rights to show these films. The problem I have with this is that I think it would be the IP laws if anything that would restrict the ease of this change. If I can buy a copy and burn it for personal use, why isn't there a part to the laws that includes rights for companies along those lines too. If you really want to sell your stuff you are going to have to learn to share the wealth, instead of letting it stagnate in the corners of the economy.

So what I think could be done, is a price hike for companies like Netflix to be able to screen the movie online. This might include royalties of some kind, it might not, this will just be something that the companies deal with as a part of running a business and being wise with how you distribute your product. You break it you buy it, on no uncertain terms, and these problems are only caused by companies convincing consumers to be frivolous with their money to make sure the economy stays stagnant.

"Note"
Advertising is a tricky business, but in the end it is about lying as thinly as possible to cover up any inherent flaws a product may have. Drinking this soda will make you see beautiful women in spandex dancing and singing a song... what is in this drink BTW?

I think, to totally generalize things, it's the younger folks who are more into downloading things. Us older folks like having rows of CDs and DVDs on our shelves. I think it will still be a long while before we see downloaded stuff take over. 10+ years. It'll happen one day though.

I prefer having box sets of games and movies or TV series. Same with books really, the one thing I lament about games coming in DVD boxes these days. You can't fit in a proper manual any more!

BrookM wrote:I prefer having box sets of games and movies or TV series. Same with books really, the one thing I lament about games coming in DVD boxes these days. You can't fit in a proper manual any more!

I'm going to guess that that's intentional.

It will take half a generation to find out whether the propensity of young folks to like downloading things is a cultural change or just a youthful behaviour pattern like cassette taping was when I was a young folk.

I dont know if it is, at 14 i must be on the younger side of these forums and i would hate to see dvds and cds disappering (new formats however are ok)

With the whole Green... thing, in "full" swing there is really no option but getting rid of unnecessary industry. Just as the record has become a collectors item so will DVD's... maybe.

I could care less about any of these new formats, they are all unnecessarily fancy, and the DVD has managed to anger me almost every time I watch one with those stupid MANDATORY ads... think about this for a second people.

Look I know that blablablablabla... I bought the DVD though, and I do not care about HAVING to watch ads. I would have absolutely no problem with having ads in the menu for people that actually manage to care about watching the same ads every time, and having to push a button, every time... dammit...

Kilkrazy wrote:It will take half a generation to find out whether the propensity of young folks to like downloading things is a cultural change or just a youthful behaviour pattern like cassette taping was when I was a young folk.

Yep... and Willy Wonka and the chocolate factory should simply not have been re-made... seriously though, an utter travesty. It is not a youthful pattern by any means, it is a world-wide phenomena that has taken the media on the left flank by storm. About time if you ask me, they are starting to look mighty BIGMAN like to me.

Pop the balloons, we need some serious transportation here folks.

Until you can deliver HD quality movies down a pipe, with instant access and no interuptions then there will always be a need for physical media. As to all in one media centres, nice if you plan to not move your stuff to another location. It is really scary that even in this day and age you still can't really "plug n play". How many times have you been given an avi file by a mate and then you have to then go off and find a suitable player or codec because you don't have it?

Picture handling is another nightmare. Every camera you buy comes with some piece of picture editoring software, the same with a scanner, some mobile phones as well, plus Windows wants to take control and on top of that you have programs like Photoshop, Lightbox and Elements. You then add into that CD / DVD editing software and they cross over in to the creating photo albums as well.

I dislike the way your eyes feel after staring at a computer screen for an extended period. I think I read somewhere that it's because computer screens give out a different kind of ray to a television one. Anyone know anymore about that?

Here is some info, I will find some more. I feel like people seriously underestimate the rate at which this kind of technology is advancing, most problems are logistical at best.

http://www.hitequest.com/Kiss/TV.htm

http://bmannconsulting.com/node/1430

As far as I know most new TV's are just "fancy" computer monitors designed to be viewed at a distance. That seems to be the main difference, if your eyes have a hard time with a computer monitor just take a 10 minute break every hour or so. I am quite sure that some businesses require their employees to do regular exercises to counter computer related disorders. The list is quite preposterous but their are actually a lot of real problems (yes restless leg is real, although medication is hardly the remedy for it...) with sitting and staring at a monitor in general.

Some times I have a movie running on my second monitor so I force myself to look away and adjust my eyes at least every few minutes. Learning to remember then type when in chats and forums can make for some interesting movie watching. Perhaps that is why Wrex has so many edits ?

The next step is a pair of extra bionic arms, maybe some Dr. Octopus backpack invention, who knows? That would be an awesome project though, tell you what. There is a lot of technology out there that could be used, like they have in the... no more rant just watch da clip mon.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C_f7X83JRuk&feature=fvw