Forum adverts like this one are shown to any user who is not logged in. Join us by filling out a tiny 3 field form and you will get your own, free, dakka user account which gives a good range of benefits to you: No adverts like this in the forums anymore. Times and dates in your local timezone. Full tracking of what you have read so you can skip to your first unread post, easily see what has changed since you last logged in, and easily see what is new at a glance. Email notifications for threads you want to watch closely. Being a part of the oldest wargaming community on the net. If you are already a member then feel free to login now.

I wantt o work out the chance of a Genestealer beating a Marine in H2H.

I have done the probability bit, calculating the chance of throwing at least a particular number on 3D6 or 2D6.

Now I want to compare these results to see difference between fighting a Genie vs a Sergeant ans a Genie vs Thunderhammer.

At the moment my thinking is to plot the dice probabilities on a graph and do integral equations to find the area below for each troop type.

For any pair of troop types, I can compare the area like this: area A + area B = 100. Chance of A winning = area A/100.

Does that make sense?

Please only answer if you know something worthwhile about maths.

Yes, it seems to make sense, although how can you be certain that Area A + Area B = 100?

Kilkrazy wrote:I wantt o work out the chance of a Genestealer beating a Marine in H2H.

I have done the probability bit, calculating the chance of throwing at least a particular number on 3D6 or 2D6.

Now I want to compare these results to see difference between fighting a Genie vs a Sergeant ans a Genie vs Thunderhammer.

At the moment my thinking is to plot the dice probabilities on a graph and do integral equations to find the area below for each troop type.

For any pair of troop types, I can compare the area like this: area A + area B = 100. Chance of A winning = area A/100.

Does that make sense?

Please only answer if you know something worthwhile about maths.

Ugh, curse you. Now I'm going to be thinking about this all night. A masters in stats theory doesn't get used a whole ton running game stores for 22 years. Time to stretch some muscles and see if I can remember how to do this without strongarming it.
With D6's there's an obvious finite amount of outcomes, but with parries it gets a bit trickier. Especially if I do it with a pencil and not a computer.)

Huh, interesting, I'll give you my take on it.

Chance of Space Marine rolling a 6: 36/216
Chance of Space Marine rolling a 5: 36/216
...
Chance of Space Marine rolling a 1: 36/216

Chance of Genestealer rolling a 6: 91/216
Chance of Genestealer rolling a 5: 61/216
Chance of Genestealer rolling a 4: 37/216
Chance of Genestealer rolling a 3: 19/216
Chance of Genestealer rolling a 2: 7/216
Chance of Genestealer rolling a 1: 1/216

Ok, the odds of the Terminator winning are the odds that the Stealer doesn't win, and doesn't tie.

So if the Terminator rolls a 1, He has a 0/216 chance of winning, 1/216 chance of tying, 215/216 chance of losing.
So if the Terminator rolls a 2, He has a 1/216 chance of winning, 7/216 chance of tying, 208/216 chance of losing.
So if the Terminator rolls a 3, He has a 8/216 chance of winning, 19/216 chance of tying, 189/216 chance of losing.
So if the Terminator rolls a 4, He has a 27/216 chance of winning, 37/216 chance of tying, 152/216 chance of losing.
So if the Terminator rolls a 5, He has a 64/216 chance of winning, 61/216 chance of tying, 91/216 chance of losing.
So if the Terminator rolls a 6, he has a 125/216 chance of winning, 91/216 chance of tying, 0/216 chance of losing.

So now we've got the total # of possible results, we can figure out the total wins, losses, and ties.

The Terminator has a 225/1296 chance of winning.
The Terminator has a 216/1296 chance of tying.
The Terminator has a 855/1296 chance of losing.

That seems about right.

That's all I've got for now. It seems like it wouldn't be hard to work out Sergeant bonus (+1) and hammer bonus, but that working out guard, and the blade/shield could become extremely difficult. I may come back to this.

Goliath wrote:Yes, it seems to make sense, although how can you be certain that Area A + Area B = 100?

In probability, the sum of the chances of all possible outcomes is 100.

Three outcomes possible: Win/Draw/Lose

It doesn't matter what the actual areas add up to if you are comparing only two individual opponents, which you always are, because the game doesn't allow 2-on-1 attacks. Therefore the ratio gives a reasonable guide to the comparative strength of the two opponents.

That's my take.

I haven't figured out the integrals yet, because I have to do a lot of revision before I can understand them. I thought of a different way of doing it but the results seem a bit screwy so I don't know if I can trust them.