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So I saw some interest in space hulk math, and decided that I'd fiddle with the numbers...and I quickly figured out it was rather awkward, so I ran simulators instead..if anyone is interested. I've worked out all the terminator vs genestealer combats without guard duty...if theres any interest in the topic I can change the code pretty quickly, or numbers for brood lords...all examples use 100,000 trials to get the numbers:

3 outcomes: genestealer wins, tie combaty, or terminator wins....

GeneWin - TieCombt - TermWin
66.040% - 16.590% - 17.370% - Genestealer vs Terminator w/ power fist
27.651% - 19.092% - 53.257% - Genestealer vs Terminator w/ lightning claws
27.037% - 14.903% - 53.257% - Genestealer vs Terminator w/ thunder hammer and storm shield
27.310% - 28.036% - 44.654% - Genestealer vs Terminator w/ power sword, not parrying on ties
28.342% - 14.703% - 56.955% - Genestealer vs Terminator w/ power sword, parrying on ties
10.835% - 11.374% - 77.791% - Genestealer vs Terminator Sergeant w/ thunder hammer and storm shield
11.590% - 27.019% - 61.391% - Genestealer vs Terminator Sergeant w/ power sword, not parrying on ties
12.243% - 10.994% - 76.763% - Genestealer vs Terminator Sergeant w/ power sword, parrying on ties

Decisions for parrying or not parrying on a tie largely depend on what the other dice are, but as far as raw #s go there is a 12:1 win:loss ratio for terminators that parry on a tie, compared to the 44:27 win:loss ratio of the actual combat, parried blows are 7 times more efficient than "another round of combat"

For sergeants, the win:loss for parried blows becomes 25:1, when compared to the normal win:loss of 61:12, sergeants parried blows are 5 times more efficient than "another round of combat"

In short: the dice on the table determine the decision to parry or not, but as a rule you should almost always parry

edit: added probabilities for sergeant, more parry mathhammer

Some interesting numbers there. Is this including bonuses for Sergeants?

Thanks

thanks for this.

On ties though, don't forget you can step back on your turn and shoot the bugger. So if the GS is out of action points it might make sense to accept the tie.