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2010/01/20 13:47:20
Subject: ODDs of rolling doubles with 3 dice, Tervigon related...


Regular Dakkanaut

There are 36 unique possible combination, and 6 of them are doubles, so that's 6/36 chances (and since 6 goes into 36, 6 times, this reduces to 1/6) or about 17%.
Tervigon says on a roll of any double (w/ 3 dice) it will exhaust his ability to produce termagaunts. Im really tired and I dont want to figure out the math. Curious if anyone already knows it and could answer my question, Its almost 9 am.. and i need to go to bed .
Thx.

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2010/01/20 13:48:19




2010/01/20 15:48:25
Subject: Re:ODDs of rolling doubles with 3 dice, Tervigon related...


Regular Dakkanaut

44.4444...% chance or to roll doubles on 3 dice or 4/9 chance per roll.
Numbers of particular concern;
18 and 3 obviously have a 100% chance of rolling doubles. (I sincerely hope that no one in the gaming comunity attempts to argue that rolling tripps is not rolling doubles)
17 and 4 also have a 100% chance of rolling doubles.
15 and 6 have a 60% chance of rolling doubles
Your "safest" numbers are 12 and 9 at 28% chance to yield doubles.
I think it's wise to make sure your beast is in position before he starts giving birth because there's a good chance he won't have another opportunity.




2010/01/20 23:07:41
Subject: Re:ODDs of rolling doubles with 3 dice, Tervigon related...


Regular Dakkanaut

I figured it was close to 50% but wasnt sure. Guess I wont be using him. Taking up an HQ slot and with that high problability makes it not worth it. Also, I dont want to buy or paint termaguants... I rather get gargs.
Thx man!




2010/01/20 23:33:18
Subject: Re:ODDs of rolling doubles with 3 dice, Tervigon related...


Morphing Obliterator

You can make the tervigon a troop choice by taking termagaunts. However, I will not be using it either.

Chaos Space Marines
Tyranids
Vampire Counts 



2010/01/21 04:11:50
Subject: Re:ODDs of rolling doubles with 3 dice, Tervigon related...


Speedy Swiftclaw Biker
Phoenix, AZ

Its a scoring MC, with regeneration and casts catalyst on whatever you need it. Onslaught if you are using hive guard.
The Tervigon is a force multiplier. Its not a bugfarm.
Crapping out a free scoring unit or two is cute, but is not it's primary purpose.





2010/01/21 04:33:04
Subject: Re:ODDs of rolling doubles with 3 dice, Tervigon related...


Agile Revenant Titan
Alabama

incarna wrote:44.4444...% chance or to roll doubles on 3 dice or 4/9 chance per roll.
Numbers of particular concern;
18 and 3 obviously have a 100% chance of rolling doubles. (I sincerely hope that no one in the gaming comunity attempts to argue that rolling tripps is not rolling doubles)
17 and 4 also have a 100% chance of rolling doubles.
15 and 6 have a 60% chance of rolling doubles
Your "safest" numbers are 12 and 9 at 28% chance to yield doubles.
I think it's wise to make sure your beast is in position before he starts giving birth because there's a good chance he won't have another opportunity.
There are 216 outcomes on 3 dice.
36 on two dice. There are 6 possible combinations of doubles on two dice. That would be a 17% chance that doubles are rolled. On three dice, there's 18 ways to roll doubles. That would make doubles come up at around 8% (lowered because of the increased number of outcomes). Add triples in and there are only 24 possible combinations of doubles and triples. 24 out of 216 possible combinations. That's 11% chance to roll doubles or triples. Or, if you want to break it down further, 8% to roll doubles and 3% to roll triples.

This message was edited 2 times. Last update was at 2010/01/21 04:38:00
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2010/01/21 04:53:06
Subject: ODDs of rolling doubles with 3 dice, Tervigon related...


Executing Exarch

I don't care what the % are. I played vs 1 of those bastards this week and he got out 22 gaunts before rolling the "dreaded" doubles. I can only imagine what the armies that are taking 3 or 4 of them can manage to put out. All scoring. All the time. Crazy. And for those thinking "but their KP"  go away because tabling your opponent is a win every time.

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2010/01/21 04:54:41
No madam, 40,000 is the year that this game is set in. Not how much it costs. Though you may have a point.  GW Fulchester
The Gatling Guns have flamethrowers on them because this is 40k  DOW III




2010/01/21 04:57:58
Subject: Re:ODDs of rolling doubles with 3 dice, Tervigon related...


Agile Revenant Titan
Alabama

incarna wrote:
Your "safest" numbers are 12 and 9 at 28% chance to yield doubles.
Please explain this to me. Across 3 dice, there are 3 ways to roll double sixes. That's 3/216. That's a little over 1%. In fact, any combination of 3 numbers (for doubles) is going to be 3/216. Triples is 6/216, across all dice. Triples is also 3/216 of any particular number.

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2010/01/21 05:53:05
Subject: Re:ODDs of rolling doubles with 3 dice, Tervigon related...


Morphing Obliterator

puma713 wrote:incarna wrote:
Your "safest" numbers are 12 and 9 at 28% chance to yield doubles.
Please explain this to me. Across 3 dice, there are 3 ways to roll double sixes. That's 3/216. That's a little over 1%. In fact, any combination of 3 numbers (for doubles) is going to be 3/216. Triples is 6/216, across all dice. Triples is also 3/216 of any particular number.
Your math is wrong because it's not taking into account that for each roll of doubles, there is a third die. For example, these are all separate rolls:
661
662
663
664
665
616
626
636
646
656
166
266
366
466
566
666
So there is actually 16 different combinations for each double (5 x 3 different positions + 1 for triples).
16 x 6 = 96.
96/216 = 0.44
44%. He was right.
Your math doesnt even make sense logically. There was a 16% chance to roll doubles before on 2 dice, and now all youve done is add the third die, which would only increase the odds.

This message was edited 2 times. Last update was at 2010/01/21 05:55:46
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2010/01/21 06:29:25
Subject: Re:ODDs of rolling doubles with 3 dice, Tervigon related...


Agile Revenant Titan
Alabama

Night Lords wrote:puma713 wrote:incarna wrote:
Your "safest" numbers are 12 and 9 at 28% chance to yield doubles.
Please explain this to me. Across 3 dice, there are 3 ways to roll double sixes. That's 3/216. That's a little over 1%. In fact, any combination of 3 numbers (for doubles) is going to be 3/216. Triples is 6/216, across all dice. Triples is also 3/216 of any particular number.
Your math is wrong because it's not taking into account that for each roll of doubles, there is a third die. For example, these are all separate rolls:
661
662
663
664
665
616
626
636
646
656
166
266
366
466
566
666
So there is actually 16 different combinations for each double (5 x 3 different positions + 1 for triples).
16 x 6 = 96.
96/216 = 0.44
44%. He was right.
Your math doesnt even make sense logically. There was a 16% chance to roll doubles before on 2 dice, and now all youve done is add the third die, which would only increase the odds.
You're right. My math is wrong. 96/216 outcomes include doubles. Apologies, incarna.

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2010/01/21 06:29:52
WH40K
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Weeping Legion 2000 pts.
Sigmar
Maggotkin of Nurgle 1000 pts.
DT:70+S++G+MBIPw40K90D++A++/eWD?R++T(D)DM+
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