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ok as long as we all agree its guess work.

GloryToThe16th wrote:ok as long as we all agree its guess work.

Well hell thats all probability is right? An educated guess.

To the OP's point, I would assume that a player who used experience and math-hammering would probably end up winning more games then a player who relied only on one of those (all other things being equal).

For me, thats enough to make it worthwhile.

It's kind of reductionist to call it guesswork. It rather distracts us from the fact that we are working from facts, such as the number of attacks, the relative strenth and toughness values, and so on.

Take the problem of four combat squads on two full Tactical Squads. I would have gone with the two combat squads with Heavy Bolters first. They have the potential to wipe out the first Tactical squad, allowing the subsequent squads to either mop up the survivors, and being more likely to apply AP2 wounds to specialists, or to direct their firepower to other units.

ok nurglitch I'll concede this: math hammer is good for telling you things you should already know. that the plasmaguns will kill more marines than the heavy bolters, for instance.

GloryToThe16th:

Actually no, the statistics, if we take mathhammer to be purely about statistics, will only tell us what is more likely to happen if we assume perfect dice and average results.

Would someone like to calculate the odds of a combat squad with a Plasma Gun (Bolters otherwise) killing two Space Marines out of ten with AP2 wounds?

you have no idea what you're talking about. admit it.

minigun762 wrote:My point was that for most people, this is enough "math-hammering" to make an informed decision on the tabletop.

QFT

Of course people know that you CAN kill 0-9 marines with 9 bolter shots, but as minigun says, with some light math, you know that you are most likely will kill 1 marine

GloryToThe16th wrote:mini each bolter shot has a 1 in 12 chance of killing the marine... but that does *not* mean you're going to kill 1 marine for every 12 bolters you fire. remember?

Stop being condescending, he is not a moron, and neither are most other people on these boards.

GloryToThe16th wrote:flavius everyone agrees math is better than going by experience. but experience is better than going by bad math... and thats what math hammer generally is. you cant model the game with arithematic. you need probability and statistics.

Yes, I agree that mathhammer can have a couple of problems in application. For example, players who are too fixated on it can sometimes lose their heads when the dice drift too far from the averages. And players with less experience (or less math knowledge) often don't account for, not sure what it's called in math, the distribution? The way the amount of variation in the possible outcomes of particular die rolls reflects the reliability of certain risks in the short-term? I'm not really a math person; this phenomenon is something I picked up from experience.

But I think the way mathhammer is used on message boards is both legitimate and useful as long as players understand the application.

I'm new to the game and I don't know much about the probabilities and what-not, but for player like me who enjoy a little bit of imagination and realism in their games, Mathhammer tends to strip that fantasy away. In real combat, generals don't pull out calculators and determine the probability of their snipers taking out an infantry unit. I know that real-life combat is different from miniature combat, but I stand by my point. If you can do it in your head, all the power to you. However, using calculators, in my mind, is the same as pre-measuring your shots.

I use it before games, to round out my army list (if I know what I am fighting). It's a tool to get an idea of what would happen. However, you can't factor in random chance, such as rolling 5 1's at once. It's a useful tool, but its significance should not be overestimated.

It isnt exact but say you have a squad of 6 Dire Avengers plus exarch with powerblade and bladestorm.

so three shots for six dire avengers agains a tac squad will on average do

18x2/3=12x1/2=6x1/3=2 kills on average

this is not exact and there are chances that it will stray but what if you have multiple squads of Dire Avengers, mathammer helps you to determine how many squads to focus on the tacs.

because you could focus five squads on the marines and on average kill the whole squad or you could focus two which would have a 7/36 chance of them routing.

The whole "mathhammer" idea is most useful outside of any particular game. Its most helpful when trying to determine which type of unit is better at a particular job; Ive seen it used very often in the debate over which is the better cc squad, eldar scorpions or banshees. If one wants to spend several years playing with both banshees and scorpions one can get a general idea which is better in each sort of cc situation. Or one can simply sit down and do calculations for a bit to save several years of work.

As with any tool, it just needs to be applied properly, and to proper problems. Digging out a calculator during the middle of battle to try and figure out which squad to shoot at that termagant squad first isnt a good idea. Between games taking a few moments to figure out what type of heavy weapon to take when you expect to face swarms of termagants IS a good idea.

And where did the notion that probability/ statisticics isnt involved in mathhammer? Simple math gives you simple mathhammer, more complicated math gives you better quality mathhammer. Experience is great, mathhammer is great, using both will tend to beat either alone. And yes, tend is the core of mathhammer, its ALL about probability. Its just a good idea to know enough about a situation to be able to tell that an event has a 97.5 likelyhood rather than a 60% likelyhood.


Sliggoth

Using math for pre-battle calculations is fine. I don't object to it. It's the in-game math that I have a problem with.

jimbob123432:

If you have a problem with people pulling a calculator out of their pocket, keep an abacus handy.

I don't have problem with the calculator itself per se, it's just that a) it gives a slight advantage to those people who can do Mathhammer, and 2) It can eat up a lot of time that can be used for, I don't know, gaming!

I can't think of any situation I've had in a 40k game where pulling a calculator would really help. In most cases, any necessary calculations can be performed mentally.

Slow playing, whatever its purpose, shouldn't be encouraged regardless of the form it takes. However mathhammer really shouldn't take long enough to slow a game down significantly. I often do the numbers in the midst of many of my matches just to figure out the optimal choice between a few possible selections.

Having an understanding of probability and statistics within the very predictably random structure of 40k has definitely helped me to become a better player overall. It's also helped me to coach a newer player or two on where their list can improve.

I kinda think that if you need to pull a calculator during a game you're either
A) Doing to much maths for what the game entails
or B) A moron who can't do fractions
Bit harsh I know but all the game needs is a slight pre-knowledge of what is likely to happen and if you get too wrapped up in the maths you leak most of the fun out of the game and cause breaks in play.

Basically try to keep it in your head and speedily.

Advanced mathhammer and actual gaming is like icecream and mustard, it's great one at a time, but horrible together.

Mellon wrote:Advanced mathhammer and actual gaming is like icecream and mustard, it's great one at a time, but horrible together.

Haha awesome. I think I might just sig that.

I think most people already done their math hammer when they are deciding what to place in their army list.

Mathhammering on the spot doesnt usually end well (when you need calculator that is )

I never take my math hammer as law. It is nice to have a frame of reference though. Semi-informed choices are better then shooting in the dark. Even the potential has enormous power.

I just have to ask, since it's the way the conversation has drifted a few times, some of you have actually played games where an opponent literally pulls out a calculator and punches in some computations in order to make a decision?

I've never seen that happen.

Nope never seen that happen. But tbh I wouldn't trust such complex calculations in the battle. I would much rather play it as I see it. =]

Oshova

I've seen opponents count on their fingers... that's sort of a bilogical abacus/calculator. But no, no calculators seen around here. My experience is that the serious mathgeeks are the only ones that would find it enjoyable to do math in the middle of a game, and they can handle these calculations in their head.

I would however consider bringing a table like the Gtt16th table above to a game, but mostly to test it out and see how reliable it is. Sort of like a math lab :-)

I have watched games where one opponent pulls out a calculator during a match. He took 5 minutes to decide his turn whilst his opponent only took about 2. Calc-man eventually loses the match.

That's because you can never rely on the law of averages. Also you've got to have sound tactical planning not just doing what the maths tells you to.

Oshova

I don't get all the hostility toward math hammer during a game (unless it's causing slow play, which I've never seen personally).

I often run the numbers in my head while my opponent is counting up his to-hit dice on a big roll and call out my prediction for the number of wounds. It gives me something to do while my brain is idle and it's fun for everybody to see how close the average comes to the actual result. (Also if my opponent is making a bad tactical decision, it helps to control his expectations for how many of my guys that huge handful of dice is actually going to take out.)

It's a tool like any other. I don't see any sense in making value judgments about it or taking a moral position on the idea that mathhammerers deserve to lose because of their focus on math.

I think the problem is when you solely rely on mathhammer, and forget about all other tactical decisions . . . admittedly you could do mathhammer with all of that built in, but to factor in all variables etc it would take a very long time to make a decision. Even longer than those slow horde players . . . lol

Oshova

To quote Mark Twain "There's three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and then there's statistics."