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Well.... the point was:

1. Opponent is hot on rolling dice.
2. Subtract his rolling dice.
3. ...
4. Profit!

In tourney's you can bring two lists...so you can have your main...then have somethign for those matchups you need to tailor (ie, much tough/cryx/etc).

Else, I had thought this was a thought experiment with set parameters (being that tough was good).

Mastershake wrote:Snacking doesn't negate Tough. Some instances of RFP will i.e. Crit Consume or Take Down, but alot of them still require the model fail a Tough check before they RFP them because Tough triggers first and keeps the model from dying and triggering the RFP effect.

Snacking:

Snacking - When this model boxes a living model with a melee attack, this model can heal d3 damage points. If this model heals
the boxed model is removed from play.

When the model is "Disabled" which occurs first, it gets a Tough check, should it pass, the process stops and the resolution process ends, so the model will never be considered "Boxed" as long as it passes Tough.

CRAP... I've been screwed outa sooooo many tough checks >.< oh well. I never get to eat anything with tough soooo... well. The more I know ... *sigh*

*edit* yeah, pg 237 in primal... *sigh*... thought it was weird, but I just accepted it being a new troll player.

Gr3y wrote:Sanctjud:
They'll have a 1/3 chance of making their first roll, 1/9 for the second 1/27 for the third and so on.

That is not accurate. Each tough roll is independent so the result of the first has no bearing on the second roll or any following roll. He has the same chance to live every time. If tough were taken on two dice or three dice or having to take multiple tough rolls with the dice rolled at the same time, then this would be correct. Since one tough roll is only taken at a time, then he's always got that 33% chance to live.

12thRonin wrote:

Gr3y wrote:Sanctjud:
They'll have a 1/3 chance of making their first roll, 1/9 for the second 1/27 for the third and so on.

That is not accurate. Each tough roll is independent so the result of the first has no bearing on the second roll or any following roll. He has the same chance to live every time. If tough were taken on two dice or three dice or having to take multiple tough rolls with the dice rolled at the same time, then this would be correct. Since one tough roll is only taken at a time, then he's always got that 33% chance to live.

Each roll has a 1/3 chance of making the save, yes. However you need to evaluate the probability of making them sequentially. When forcing multiple tough rolls on a single model (say on an assassination run) he needs to make each tough roll. So if you're forcing 3 tough rolls it's a 1/3*1/3*1/3 chance of surviving which comes out to a little under 4%.

There is no carry over in this situation from what your last roll was. The dice don't care what you rolled the last time and they don't remember. Any roll has a 33% chance since it is an individual, discrete events. What you are holding is true if you had to make all three tough rolls at once (40k armor/Invuln saves for instance).

You're ignoring that you have to evaluate the aggregate probability for making all the rolls for a model.

Yes, the dice have a 1/3 chance of coming up 5+ each time. But that doesn't mean a Tough model will survive an assassination run 1/3 of the time.

The other night I had a game against Borka. My Driller boosted his first attack to guarantee the hit and splattered him. My opponent had a 1/3 chance to make his first tough roll. He failed it, but even if he succeed my next attack would have forced another one. Again he would have had a 1/3 chance to make that one, but a 1/9 chance to make both of them in a row. If he made that one I had one more focus to buy the next attack. Again 1/3 to make that particular tough roll but only a 1/27 to have made all three of them.

I'm not ignoring it. I am saying it does not matter since there is nothing to aggregate as these are all discrete events. Subsequent rolls do not matter and are not influenced by the original event. You have an equal probability of rolling a 5+ on the second or third opportunity as you do the first.

Yes, the dice have a 1/3 chance of coming up 5+ each time. But that doesn't mean a Tough model will survive an assassination run 1/3 of the time.

I agree 100% here. Seems like warlocks make it alot more than 1/3 of the time.

And the green grass grows all around, all around, and the green grass grows all around.