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schadenfreude wrote:2012 election analysis can be broken down into a single sentence: Obama getting a second term depends entirely upon support from independent and moderate voters, and that support is going to entirely depend on who wins the Republican primary.

Not necessarily. I'm independent, and the last candidate that the Republicans put forward who was at all attractive to me was the 2000 McCain.

If it was a real Lord of Change,I'd vote for him,despite not even being American.




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Mannahnin wrote:

schadenfreude wrote:2012 election analysis can be broken down into a single sentence: Obama getting a second term depends entirely upon support from independent and moderate voters, and that support is going to entirely depend on who wins the Republican primary.

Not necessarily. I'm independent, and the last candidate that the Republicans put forward who was at all attractive to me was the 2000 McCain.

That's pretty much my point. If the Republicans can put forth a candidate Independents like then they can win votes like yours, but if the base of the Republican party elect a far right candidate Obama will probably win. The right wing base is already as energized as they can possibly be, so the answer to winning in 2012 is not "Energize the base" Right now the problem the Republican party is going to have is their base is already too energized for their own good which resulted in them losing several senate seats because several of their candidates were so far right they were unelectable. That might happen again in 2012. It's going to be an interesting race because the GOP can win if they don't cut their own throat, and that's a big if.

schadenfreude wrote:

Mannahnin wrote:

schadenfreude wrote:2012 election analysis can be broken down into a single sentence: Obama getting a second term depends entirely upon support from independent and moderate voters, and that support is going to entirely depend on who wins the Republican primary.

Not necessarily. I'm independent, and the last candidate that the Republicans put forward who was at all attractive to me was the 2000 McCain.

That's pretty much my point. If the Republicans can put forth a candidate Independents like then they can win votes like yours, but if the base of the Republican party elect a far right candidate Obama will probably win. The right wing base is already as energized as they can possibly be, so the answer to winning in 2012 is not "Energize the base" Right now the problem the Republican party is going to have is their base is already too energized for their own good which resulted in them losing several senate seats because several of their candidates were so far right they were unelectable. That might happen again in 2012. It's going to be an interesting race because the GOP can win if they don't cut their own throat, and that's a big if.

Alot of the Senators up in 2012 are Democrats in Red states. Including one of mine.

schadenfreude wrote: Right now the problem the Republican party is going to have is their base is already too energized for their own good which resulted in them losing several senate seats because several of their candidates were so far right they were unelectable. That might happen again in 2012. It's going to be an interesting race because the GOP can win if they don't cut their own throat, and that's a big if.

The biggest problem that the GOP has is that primaries are almost always won by the candidate who can most effectively appeal to the extreme elements of his party. This is made even more problematic for them given that they don't have super-delegates to partially counteract the problem. As such, they're going to have to try really hard to get more moderate supporters out for the primaries.

Either way its a tough fight. Obama certainly isn't setting records for high approval rates, but he isn't setting them for low ones either (49 approve 43 disapprove), and his numbers have been trending up in 2011.

schadenfreude wrote:2012 election analysis can be broken down into a single sentence: Obama getting a second term depends entirely upon support from independent and moderate voters, and that support is going to entirely depend on who wins the Republican primary.

On a more serious subject.

I fear no wiener dogs, for they are delicious.



I'm higher on the food chain than you, get in my belly.

Hah! One weiner dog is vulture food. A ten millions yapping biting weiner dogs is a (slow moving) tide of unstoppable Badness! We are wienies! We are Legion!

"I'm going to take some short dogs for a long a walk. I' going o be awhile."
-Frazzled.

a black man president, does it have to be from a dark power?

kevlar'o wrote:a black man president, does it have to be from a dark power?

Don't play the race card,

On a even more decilcate topic:

Weine Dogs!