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2012/05/23 18:06:50
Subject: Re:This election is turning more and more into a nail biter
sirlynchmob wrote:there is a chance he could push for a constitution amendment to ensure marriage equality for everyone and nullifying all those states that changed their constitutions against it.
Don't Hold your breath.
Avatar 720 wrote: You see, to Auston, everyone is a Death Star; there's only one way you can take it and that's through a small gap at the back.
Powder Burns wrote:what they need to make is a fullsize leatherman, like 14" long folded, with a bone saw, notches for bowstring, signaling flare, electrical hand crank generator, bolt cutters..
2012/05/23 18:10:18
Subject: This election is turning more and more into a nail biter
d-usa wrote:If 4 years after the fact you are still insisting that picking Sarah Palin as the Republican VP candidate was a good idea, then I have to truly applaud you for your dedication towards justifying everything the GOP has done.
Name one VP candidate that McCain could have picked that would've given him an edge over Obama with any voters and was acceptable to the Republican right. McCain would have lost a number of Republicans who would've stayed at home rather than vote for him. Even with Palin, Republican turnout was low.
I can't because I think Bush so poisoned the Republican brand there was nothing McCain could have done to win. The cycle just really wasn't working for him; the only chance he had would have been Democrats picking a very weak nominee (which they did not). So I agree with you that Sarah Palin didn't "cost him the election" as has been a popular meme elsewhere. However, I don't think she was a net positive either - her unfavorables had been increasing pretty steadily up to the election.
The whole Sarah Palin thing is fascinating because I think had she played her cards right, she would be a totally serious contender for president right now - she made so many missteps in the last 4 years.
lord_blackfang wrote: Respect to the guy who subscribed just to post a massive ASCII dong in the chat and immediately get banned.
Flinty wrote: The benefit of slate is that its.actually a.rock with rock like properties. The downside is that it's a rock
2012/05/23 18:17:13
Subject: Re:This election is turning more and more into a nail biter
sirlynchmob wrote:there is a chance he could push for a constitution amendment to ensure marriage equality for everyone and nullifying all those states that changed their constitutions against it.
Don't Hold your breath.
i just realized, he's barely doing any non campaign related work since what 2010, if re-elected would he even bother showing up any more? What will he do with himself?
-"Wait a minute.....who is that Frazz is talking to in the gallery? Hmmm something is going on here.....Oh.... it seems there is some dispute over video taping of some sort......Frazz is really upset now..........wait a minute......whats he go there.......is it? Can it be?....Frazz has just unleashed his hidden weiner dog from his mini bag, while quoting shakespeares "Let slip the dogs the war!!" GG
-"Don't mind Frazzled. He's just Dakka's crazy old dude locked in the attic. He's harmless. Mostly."
-TBone the Magnificent 1999-2014, Long Live the King!
2012/05/23 19:37:12
Subject: Re:This election is turning more and more into a nail biter
sirlynchmob wrote:there is a chance he could push for a constitution amendment to ensure marriage equality for everyone and nullifying all those states that changed their constitutions against it.
Don't Hold your breath.
i just realized, he's barely doing any non campaign related work since what 2010, if re-elected would he even bother showing up any more? What will he do with himself?
Start on a library I suppose.
Avatar 720 wrote: You see, to Auston, everyone is a Death Star; there's only one way you can take it and that's through a small gap at the back.
Powder Burns wrote:what they need to make is a fullsize leatherman, like 14" long folded, with a bone saw, notches for bowstring, signaling flare, electrical hand crank generator, bolt cutters..
2012/05/23 19:48:35
Subject: Re:This election is turning more and more into a nail biter
-"Wait a minute.....who is that Frazz is talking to in the gallery? Hmmm something is going on here.....Oh.... it seems there is some dispute over video taping of some sort......Frazz is really upset now..........wait a minute......whats he go there.......is it? Can it be?....Frazz has just unleashed his hidden weiner dog from his mini bag, while quoting shakespeares "Let slip the dogs the war!!" GG
-"Don't mind Frazzled. He's just Dakka's crazy old dude locked in the attic. He's harmless. Mostly."
-TBone the Magnificent 1999-2014, Long Live the King!
2012/05/23 20:06:08
Subject: Re:This election is turning more and more into a nail biter
It's going to come down to whether or not the young vote comes out and helps out Obama in key states. Don't think they are motivated by Obama, but could be motivated enough (or should I say disgusted by?) Mitt Romney where they go out and give Obama the votes he needs.
Most states are Given, California, New York, Mass. (etc) to Obama.
Texas, Georgia, Miss, Oklahoma to Romney.
I can see Romney winning the popular vote but losing the election.
Obama has a lot of territory he can lose and still win. Obama can lose part of Nebraska, Florida, Iowa, Indiana, North Carolina, and Virginia and still win the election.
I don't think Obama can win all 3 of what people call the "New South" North Carolina, Virginia and Florida.
Obama can win Florida. Virginia is iffy, but unlikely. Perhaps if the Northern Democratic migration voters get out along with the growing African American vote, maybe Obama can steal it.
Romney needs to steal Ohio or Pennsylvania. Ohio is more likely to go red than PA. I don't see Nevada voting for Mitt with the Hispanic vote in play. Colorado seems to be a light shade of blue, New Mexico only voted Republican once in the past 5 elections.
I'm not seeing enough states for Romney to take back and win.
FLorida is starting to shift for Romney in latest polling.
-"Wait a minute.....who is that Frazz is talking to in the gallery? Hmmm something is going on here.....Oh.... it seems there is some dispute over video taping of some sort......Frazz is really upset now..........wait a minute......whats he go there.......is it? Can it be?....Frazz has just unleashed his hidden weiner dog from his mini bag, while quoting shakespeares "Let slip the dogs the war!!" GG
-"Don't mind Frazzled. He's just Dakka's crazy old dude locked in the attic. He's harmless. Mostly."
-TBone the Magnificent 1999-2014, Long Live the King!
2012/05/23 20:40:01
Subject: Re:This election is turning more and more into a nail biter
I can pretty much guarantee that Michigan will go Democrat. This state has almost always voted Dem for EVERYTHING since I started voting, and as far back as I can remember before that. I wonder how we have such good gun laws
2012/05/23 20:49:30
Subject: Re:This election is turning more and more into a nail biter
KingCracker wrote:I can pretty much guarantee that Michigan will go Democrat. This state has almost always voted Dem for EVERYTHING since I started voting, and as far back as I can remember before that. I wonder how we have such good gun laws
Except, apparently, Governor in 2010.
text removed by Moderation team.
2012/05/23 20:50:51
Subject: Re:This election is turning more and more into a nail biter
KingCracker wrote:I can pretty much guarantee that Michigan will go Democrat. This state has almost always voted Dem for EVERYTHING since I started voting, and as far back as I can remember before that. I wonder how we have such good gun laws
Cough,
Republican Governor
Cough
Republican Senate
Cough
Republican House
Cough.
Jeez something must be stuck in my throat.
Avatar 720 wrote: You see, to Auston, everyone is a Death Star; there's only one way you can take it and that's through a small gap at the back.
Powder Burns wrote:what they need to make is a fullsize leatherman, like 14" long folded, with a bone saw, notches for bowstring, signaling flare, electrical hand crank generator, bolt cutters..
2012/05/23 21:08:10
Subject: Re:This election is turning more and more into a nail biter
KingCracker wrote:I can pretty much guarantee that Michigan will go Democrat. This state has almost always voted Dem for EVERYTHING since I started voting, and as far back as I can remember before that. I wonder how we have such good gun laws
Cough,
Republican Governor
Cough
Republican Senate
Cough
Republican House
Cough.
Jeez something must be stuck in my throat.
Maybe everything was bit of a strong word, although we have been mostly Dem for years. I should of said that, in regards to Presidential voting.
2012/05/23 21:48:32
Subject: Re:This election is turning more and more into a nail biter
KingCracker wrote:I can pretty much guarantee that Michigan will go Democrat. This state has almost always voted Dem for EVERYTHING since I started voting, and as far back as I can remember before that. I wonder how we have such good gun laws
Cough,
Republican Governor
Cough
Republican Senate
Cough
Republican House
Cough.
Jeez something must be stuck in my throat.
Maybe everything was bit of a strong word, although we have been mostly Dem for years. I should of said that, in regards to Presidential voting.
You would have saved me an asthma attack.
But I helped you solve your gun rights question. Be thankful you don't live in Iowa.
Avatar 720 wrote: You see, to Auston, everyone is a Death Star; there's only one way you can take it and that's through a small gap at the back.
Powder Burns wrote:what they need to make is a fullsize leatherman, like 14" long folded, with a bone saw, notches for bowstring, signaling flare, electrical hand crank generator, bolt cutters..
2012/05/23 21:52:35
Subject: Re:This election is turning more and more into a nail biter
Powder Burns wrote:what they need to make is a fullsize leatherman, like 14" long folded, with a bone saw, notches for bowstring, signaling flare, electrical hand crank generator, bolt cutters..
2012/05/23 22:20:57
Subject: Re:This election is turning more and more into a nail biter
Powder Burns wrote:what they need to make is a fullsize leatherman, like 14" long folded, with a bone saw, notches for bowstring, signaling flare, electrical hand crank generator, bolt cutters..
2012/05/23 22:26:29
Subject: Re:This election is turning more and more into a nail biter
Joey wrote:I thought Obama was consistantly ahead in the polls?
He's got a reasonable lead in straight up polls, but once you factor in likely voters (the Republican candidate is typically stronger among demographics that are much more likely to vote, and Romney is no exception) then it comes back to being neck and neck.
What people are failing to account for is that Obama is a strong campaigner with an excellent on the ground infrastructure. Romney could have built such a thing during his primary battle, but instead ended up spending most of his cash on attack ads on his rivals. Romney has also made some incredible goofs, despite so far only speaking in fairly friendly environments.
I suspect this campaign is largely shaping up like 2004. Tepid support for the president opens the door for the rival candidate, with the win ultimately going to the incumbent because he's got a much better political campaign.
“We may observe that the government in a civilized country is much more expensive than in a barbarous one; and when we say that one government is more expensive than another, it is the same as if we said that that one country is farther advanced in improvement than another. To say that the government is expensive and the people not oppressed is to say that the people are rich.”
Adam Smith, who must have been some kind of leftie or something.
2012/05/24 02:37:00
Subject: This election is turning more and more into a nail biter
Grakmar wrote:Romney has almost no chance at winning the Latino vote, which is where the Republicans need to go to stay competitive. The electoral college could be a total landslide.
I suspect, though I could be wrong, that in highly partisan climate the US is in right now, landslides won't happen. I mean, the Republicans could run an apple for their candidate and the Democrats still wouldn't claim Texas.
“We may observe that the government in a civilized country is much more expensive than in a barbarous one; and when we say that one government is more expensive than another, it is the same as if we said that that one country is farther advanced in improvement than another. To say that the government is expensive and the people not oppressed is to say that the people are rich.”
Adam Smith, who must have been some kind of leftie or something.
2012/05/24 02:38:24
Subject: Re:This election is turning more and more into a nail biter
If Romney is polling this high after all the rhetoric he spewed (sp?) to get the nomination it's likely his numbers are actually still low since he'll be swinging back to the middle as we get closer to November.
Outside of poltical junkies and that minority of Republicans who show up to vote in primaries, most people don't pay much attention to politics before the actual election starts. Even then it takes a while to actually get people engaged*, so what you're seeing now is a vague idea of how people in general see the candidate. All the hardline stuff Romney claimed during the primary will only matter if Obama can get him to re-commit to that position (if it's generally unpopular), get him to say the opposite and so appear like a guy who'll say anything to get elected.
*It's why there's been so many nonsense attacks by both sides lately. A story released right now about the opposition candidate has virtually no impact on the final figures, so basically candidates are throwing gak at the wall to see what sticks, to get an idea of what attacks will work when it really matters.
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Lynata wrote:
Grakmar wrote:He's coming off of a big win and months and months of campaigning, whereas Obama's campaign hasn't really kicked into full gear yet. So, the numbers are skewed in his favor, as compared to where they will be in November.
That is if Romney is slowing down now... Thanks to the Super PACs he has gakloads of money to waste on manipulating the general populace.
Does anyone know what happens to Super PAC funds of candidates who are out of the race? Are they dissolved or would they be pooling their money? If it's the latter, Romney could kick off another wave just about now, couldn't he?
I don't speak German, but from what I can see of the numbers, that looks like monthly spending amounts during the primaries. Given Romney's media blitz in Florida I'm guessing maybe that?
Anyhow, the amount Romney had to spend on tv ads during the primary, especially on attack ads on other Republican candidates, doesn't speak to the strength of his warchest or his campaign as a whole. Rather, having to spend so much on negative ads at that stage, and not on a ground campaign that would serve him well in the presidential election, is a significant weakness.
And Obama has a much, much bigger warchest that Romney. Sitting presidents always do, but even by those standards Obama is miles ahead of the game.
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biccat wrote:If you think Palin hurt McCain in the general election then you weren't paying attention in 2008.
I suppose people are looking for a reason to excuse their vote for Obama ("I would've voted for McCain but for Palin..."), but without picking Palin, McCain would've lost in a landslide.
It sured up McCain's numbers among the religious right and social conservatives, and getting them out to vote is a key for any Republican victory, but it killed his support among the middle. From what I've seen of how few genuine swing voters actually get out and vote, compared to how much participation from key demographics matters, but you're simply mistaken in claiming it's as cut and dry as you think above.
Plenty of people who study this for a living believe it did Palin more harm than good. There's a reason there was a huge fallout about Palin after the election.
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juraigamer wrote:Polls don't mean a damn thing.
75% of americans agree, from recent polling.
The blog fivethirtyeight, just from a study of polls, not only picked the winner in 2008, they picked which way every single state would fall. Polls are very powerful, if you're smart enough to not just take them at face value, and look behind the numbers.
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Grakmar wrote:The gay vote and the woman vote has been pretty strongly Democrat for quite a while now. They're not really in play this election.
The issue is never about getting a demographic on side, but always about ensuring they turn out to vote.
For example, black people vote overwhelming for the Democratic candidate, every single election, and have done since Nixon sured up the South with race baiting. But they're rarely much of a factor because participation is poor. In 2008 black people voted for Obama in more or less the same numbers as they voted for Clinton, about 95% Democratic, but what changed is that they actually got out and voted in large numbers. Large enough that Southern states with strong conservative evangelical groups (who always turn out and vote in large numbers) actually went Democratic.
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Ouze wrote:The whole Sarah Palin thing is fascinating because I think had she played her cards right, she would be a totally serious contender for president right now - she made so many missteps in the last 4 years.
I'm not sure Palin ever wanted the presidency. You don't walk away from governing Alaska because the pressure is too much, and then figure the presidency is the next logical step.
What Palin wants is to be a Republican media darling. Speaking at all those fundraisers, popping in to do softball media bits every so often, and giving your support to some candidate or another - that stuff pays brilliantly and it's really, really easy. Palin's challenge was always to look like she wanted to run for office, without accidentally getting voted in to anything.
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Frazzled wrote:So a four year road trip? Partay!
I dearly, dearly love how exactly this mirrors people talking about Bush in the run up to 2004.
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AustonT wrote:Cough,
Republican Governor
Cough
Republican Senate
Cough
Republican House
Cough.
Jeez something must be stuck in my throat.
Yeah, but ultimately Obama fought to save the car industry, and Romney opposed those efforts. That's a big deal in Michigan.
Colorado is the state that put Obama past 270 votes. While he picked up Ohio, Florida and North Carolina, he didn't need any of those states to carry the election. Assuming the relative order of the states remains constant and Obama doesn't drop any state he carried by 9% or more in 2008, then he can actually miss all of the above and still win.
This message was edited 8 times. Last update was at 2012/05/24 03:15:32
“We may observe that the government in a civilized country is much more expensive than in a barbarous one; and when we say that one government is more expensive than another, it is the same as if we said that that one country is farther advanced in improvement than another. To say that the government is expensive and the people not oppressed is to say that the people are rich.”
Adam Smith, who must have been some kind of leftie or something.
2012/05/24 16:55:24
Subject: Re:This election is turning more and more into a nail biter
