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 Totalwar1402 wrote:


If you are eager to defend AFFC and ADWD then why don't you ...

I'm not defending them. Is this remark meant for someone else?

I was simply commenting on how I don't think GRRM has had his series planned out very well, and has instead broadly made it up as he went along. Hes far too easily distracted, with far too many ongoing projects competing for his time to the detriment of ASOIAF. Along with the Winds of Winter, he's also working on a 4th for his Dunk and Egg series, the Wild Card series and is contributing to the HBO show.

He's juggling a lot of things all at once, dropping and smashing things, then picking up the pieces and continuing to juggle.

Jons parentage is meant to be a central mystery of the series. If everyone has already guessed this two books (or even less) into the series and the author keeps making cryptic references to this without making it part of the plot then you aren't getting it right. .... Why not make this a part of his story rather than maintaining the "mystery"? Mystery is supposed to be mysterious. Not "oh blue rose in a wall of ice. Like the ones Lyanna wore. Oh Jon is Rhaegar and Lyannas son. Duh".Such a mystery.

GRRM has remarked on the various theories floating about the internet and how people are guessing at the secrets and mysteries of his story. His remarks were along the lines of ...

"What do you do when people come up with theories about your characters, and they actually guess pretty close to what you (the author) is planning, or their idea was actually better than yours? Do you stick with your story and persevere, with the cat out of the bag, or do you change your story? I just choose to ignore them and try not to let it affect my writing".

I think its pretty clear that GRRM is writing the story that he wants to write, regardless of criticism of its poor pacing and plodding narrative. He seems to view any criticism as a nuisance, especially criticism of how slow he writes. He gets quite personally offended over that.

 Mr Morden wrote:
Australia was not founded through violence, I will grant you that.

Not sure the Aborignees would agree with that? Same as the native Americans and the US? South America etc etc

Referring to the US being founded as a country as a direct result of their revolution from their British betters. Nothing to do with the colonialism days.

We had a vote to determine whether we became a country. Not a ballot by bullet.

ALL "native" peoples have been displaced by "invaders" to some degree or other. Going back to the Cro-magnon/Neanderthal days. This isn't to excuse such behaviours, but it does illustrate that it is an intrinsic part of homo sap and denying that is more wrong.

Even the Aboriginals are blow-ins - but they moved in on a vacant land.

I really don't know how much GRM is making it up as he goes along.....

There was alot of talk about how the last few books were already written but were too big to fit in one volume then they took ages to come out and were half filled with IMO stupid new characters and dull / inane plots.....

I suspect we'll end up with Walder Frey sitting on the Iron Throne or something.

Same goes for Littlefinger.

 thenoobbomb wrote:
I suspect we'll end up with Walder Frey sitting on the Iron Throne or something.

Same goes for Littlefinger.

Walder Frey on a partially melted Iron Throne in a burnt out Red Keep with snow falling, and a horde of wights outside the walls.

Gitzbitah wrote:
[quote=
Violence is not the solution to many individual problems, but if you'd like to take over a country or throne, it is the best way.

The Nazis were not compromised or negotiated into ceasing their imperialism or genocide, either. It took the proper application of violence by the Allies. On a national level, violence is often the only way to stop another nation or ruler that has contradictory goals. The Koreas and Vietnams amply demonstrate the inefficiency of compromising nations today.

I'm sorry I should have been more clear. Yes, I meant the Sons of the Harpy and her slave lords. She has a huge problem committing to suppressing insurgency. At the time of her list burning, those slavers were her subjects. We agree they should have suffered mightily- I thought she should have started feeding them to the dragons. If they are to weapons of war, they must become accustomed to devouring enemies foreign and domestic,

But Dany isn't trying to conquer Essos in ADWD. She is trying to secure her rule in Meereen. So this is a question of either giving the olive branch to the Ghiscari or deciding to wipe out the Ghiscari population (the easy option here because they are the tiny minority and have no army)..

Indeed I think the book massively overstates the threat which could be posed by the insurrection. As I said before the ratio of slaves to freemen is 4:1. When you add to that the hundred thousand Yunkish freed slaves Dany brought and that when she took the city many Ghiscari were slaughtered by the slaves (indeed the entire Ghiscari population could fit into a central square). Even if Meereen has a population of half a million, we're still only talking 10% of the population being Ghiscari or 50,000. So 90% of the population are those same people who are calling Dany Mysha and are 100% devoted to her. Of those, we are told that roughly half of them, including several noble houses are shavepates and actually support Danys regime for their own advancement. Now, they have nothing to protect them. Remember, during ASOS, before Dany intervened, the slaves were described as having blood stained hands when they cried Mysha and were in the process a massacring the slaver population. With their army gone there is nothing save a handful of retainers and knife wielding thugs protecting them (whose only accomplishment is to murder a dozen or so people, more people would die from disease, poverty and starvation in a city that big. What GRRM argues is that 5% of the population, surrounded by an armed majority fanatically devoted to Dany and predisposed to despise them are able to pose a threat. What do you think would happen if the 5% minority in any country tried to form an armed resistance in such circumstances without the means to defend themselves? The worst they could do is open the gates for the slaver army. Frankly, if the slavers are dumb enough to think that the same people who were massacring them before and who call Dany Mysha aren't going to do anything then they're being pretty stupid. Danys mercy is the only thing stopping that population going Rwandan Genocide on them. I just find the whole premise silly and a few murders shakes Danys regime to its foundations? More people die from disease and the pale mare. So really, Dany should have these people by the balls, her mercy and Unsullied are the only thing stopping the Ghiscari population being beheaded and dismembered by the mob in the streets. Now, lets be blunt. In Baghdad and Afghanistan, you do not have a situation where 90% of the population think of the Americans as their mother and want them to be there. At best there is apathy. The idea of an insurgency working where 90% of the population support the regime is nonsense. .Do you really think there would be an insurgency in Afghanistan if 90% of Afghans wanted the Americans there and absolutely supported them? GRRM is trying to make a parallel between modern day insurgency and the problems Dany faces without considering this. Instead he totally ignores the existence of 90% of the population as if the machinations of the "nobility" are whats important ( who are really just people Dany allows in her presence; she could just ignore them or kill them at her leisure if she wanted). But no, GRRM wanted his cheap reference to modern day insurgencies and guerrilla wars.

We have an accord, Totalwar!

Dany could have ended the insurrection with a timely application of violence.

From what I understand of insurrections they usually involve a very small percentage of the population.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irish_Republican_Army
c. 100,000 enrolled by 1918, c. 15,000 effectives (maximum strength including front-line and support personnel) of whom 3,000 served as fighters at any one time

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irish_population_analysis
2.97 million in 1926.

Unless I'm mistaken, 3,000 of 3,000,000 is less than 1/10% of the population.

Even the entire IRA on roster was a mere 3% of the population.

Asymmetrical warfare never works on paper, but it often does in practice. It isn't a game of numbers, but who is willing to get dirtier, and tolerate more atrocities. GRRM seems to have his numbers for the insurgency correct, to my layman's eyes.

Gitzbitah wrote:
We have an accord, Totalwar!

Dany could have ended the insurrection with a timely application of violence.

From what I understand of insurrections they usually involve a very small percentage of the population.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irish_Republican_Army
c. 100,000 enrolled by 1918, c. 15,000 effectives (maximum strength including front-line and support personnel) of whom 3,000 served as fighters at any one time

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irish_population_analysis
2.97 million in 1926.

Unless I'm mistaken, 3,000 of 3,000,000 is less than 1/10% of the population.

Even the entire IRA on roster was a mere 3% of the population.

Asymmetrical warfare never works on paper, but it often does in practice. It isn't a game of numbers, but who is willing to get dirtier, and tolerate more atrocities. GRRM seems to have his numbers for the insurgency correct, to my layman's eyes.

No, 1/10th of the population of Meereen are Ghiscari. That figure includes mostly non combatants, women, children, old men and a fair number will also be apathetic. Never mind the Shavepates who are actually loyal to Dany and form part of her support in the city. So really, if you apply the 1/10th rule as per number of combatants and we assume that the 10% Ghiscari amounts to 50,000 people then that would mean 5000 people are in the resistance. If we take your lower figure for combatants then thats only 500 people. Dany has more than 10,000 soldiers in a confined area. This should not be a problem when the resistances chief weapon is a knife. You've also got to consider a few other things.

These were 3000 people in a largely apathetic and supportive population which favored independence from British rule. They would hide them, not go to the British authorities with information and they had the advantage of modern weapons and explosives that allowed them to kill at a distance with minimal risk. In Meereen, 90% of the population or more are freed slaves and should have a very real stake in making sure the slavers do not succeed in (as shown by Astapor) exterminating them. Not only that, but these are people are devoted to Daenerys, call her Myhsa and want her to succeed in ruling the city so she can protect them. For GRRM to assert that this simply does not matter and would not hinder the guerilla movements activities is absurd. The IRA could not have functioned as a body if it had faced such animosity from the overwhelming majority of the population. People would go to the authorities, they wouldn't shelter them, wouldn't hide weapons for them and never mind the potential for the majority to turn on the minority group. Why is information never gained from informants and no Sons of the Harpy taken prisoner if this is the case? Even the British could capture and interrogate IRA members for information. If you look at the Rwandan Genocide, when a minority Tutsi ethnic group tried to takeover the country it provoked the civilian Hutu majority to launch an act of genocide against their Tutsi neighbours. This is because they genuinely believed that they would themselves be wiped out. But GRRM insists that the slaves who are being murdered by the Sons of the Harpy are just going to accept this and not just form angry mobs and machete all of the Ghiscari minority. Finally, these attacks are just a couple of people with knives in back allies committed by slaver lords (those effete guys in the tokars) or hired thugs. They have no actual weapons and no trained soldiers. Without access to rifles and explosives this means a guerilla war like the IRA shouldn't be able to exist. You're really saying that none of the attackers are injured, killed or better still captured by any of Dany much better trained and equipped soldiers? So to GRRM, a bunch of nobles with knives constitutes this immense threat to Danys rule, its members do not reveal their secrets, its terrorist members cannot be captured and the 90% of the population which supports Dany does not exist. Really, he makes it out as if everybody in the city is a former Ghiscari slaver and hates Daenerys. Which is stupid. These people should be a minority given what GRRM has said. Basically this should not be a problem. Basically guerilla warfare does not work in a medieval setting, especially not when the vast majority of the population supports the regime and hates you. The whole situation is ridiculous.

I once even read a theory that suggested that the Sons of the Harpy doesn't exist and is just being conducted by Shakaz to make Dany liquidate the nobles who oppose his ascension. Not fully convinced by that but it would explain how they're able to go undetected and why Shakaz always wants her and Barristan to put down his rivals who he always makes out to be Danys enemies. Plus it fits the character description of the powerless nobles inside Meereen who have nothing to stop the mob of freed slaves taking machetes to them save for Danys protection. Its in there interests to not do anything to provoke Dany until the slaver army takes back the city at least.

Another thing is that GRRM never tries to give a sense of scale to this conflict or make it seem interesting. What he tells us is that a few slave cities are at war with Dany. When you look at some of the maps, you actually realize that these cities amount to almost half of Essos; but its never conveyed in this way. He also completely undermines the threat by making the slave soldiers out to be a joke through Tyrion and Quentyns POV. The Yunkish troops are a joke with troops on stilts, a pretend Daenerys wannabee, chained up pikemen and leaders who are the definition of incompetent. Even the sellswords are portrayed as stupid idiots who are just lining up for a fail and some like the Windblown are so appalled by how bad their side is that they start planning to change sides. Why not try to make this interesting rather than talking about how gak one side of this war is?

But probably the biggest and most simple reason that the conflict feels so underwhelming and boring is that he doesn't even bother to put a number to how many troops are on each side. Literally, not once does he do this and its in stark (get it ) contrast to all of the Westerosi battles. He tells us that Stannis had 30,000 men at the Blackwater and 2000 at the wall. That Robs host of 18000 was joined by 4000 Freys. Does he tell you how many Yunkish, New Ghiscari and all these cohorts amount to? Not once. He spends so much time describing what they look like that he never conveys how important this fight is or what the stakes are. You have to do a lot of guess work to come to any sort of figure about how many slavers there are. Oh he wastes time talking about the different types of sellsword companies, types of slave soldiers from Yunkai, New Ghis, Qaarth, Tolos and Elyria. Numbers help. Just how much of a threat are we talking about here. By how much do they outnumber Daenerys? Are these a few hundred guys pitching tents, or is there a 100,000 men out there? The exact same goes for Danys army. We are never, not once, given a figure as to how considerable or meagre her army is. We are told that there are three Free Companies formed from former slaves and a whole new city guard added called the Brazen Beasts. But once again GRRM never bothers to provide a number. It almost feels like he is being deliberately ambiguous and vague.


The only indication of how many soldiers the slavers have comes from a Winds of Winter preview chapter where Barristan remarks that there are 6000 soldiers in a New Ghiscari legion. At least four of these are supposed to be at Meereen from what I know. So we can assume that since New Ghis is a small island and that the army is commanded by the Yunkish that these only form a minority of the total slaver force. Thats it. I honestly don't understand his ambiguity here. Theres going to be a a battle and I would like a sense of scale and the stakes involved.

Considering that this war is going to last at least three books and be such a big part of Danys arc he could at least have treat this war with the same level of detail and interest that he does the Westerosi wars. If you as a writer clearly don't care enough to even say how many troops are in each army then you obviously aren't interested in the outcome. Unless some genius can come up with a reason for his deliberate ambiguity. GRRM always given these numbers in every major battle in Westeros.