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Without Horus turning, Pertuarbo would never have turned and may have thought he could be forgiven for destroying his homeworld. Russ wouldn't have had his 'destroy' orders sent by Horus so the Magnus and his sons would still be loyal (although Magnus may never have sent the message to the Emperor in the first place).
Alpha legion would have seen the Cabals predictions as false so wouldn't have turned either.
Cruze turned after going crazy and destroying his homeworld so I believe he would have still rebelled.
The Deamon would still have corrupted Fulgrim.
Mortarion seems to really dislike the Emperor and many of the loyalist generals so I imagine he would have been easy for Lorgar to recruit, especially if Nurgle had released his plague on the Death Guard still.
Whilst Angrons grudge against his farther coupled with his anger from the butchers nails would have helped push him over the edge if he saw 4 other legions rebelling.
So Word Bearers, Night Lords, Emperors Childern, Death Guard and possibly the World Eaters would have all rebelled.
Mars would not have been as corrupted without the influence of the Warmaster.
With only 5 legions, less than half the Titan legions would have turned.
Istavans would never have happened.
Alpha legion would not have sabotaged the 'make marines in fast forward mode' that the emperor gave Corax. This would have then been extended to all the loyalist legions, thus meaning tens of milllions of Space marines for the next 10k years.
A huge difference would have been if Magnus never sent his message. He would now be in the Golden Throne. Mankind would have access to the webway and the Emperor would be leading Mankind alongside upto 13 of his Primarchs.
With the Emperor in charge, SM at the number of 20x + what the currently are, strategic access to the webway, upto 13 supergenerals, no ridiculous religious fervour holding back technological progress, no scrapcode and martian war destroying much of the imperiums advanced knowledge, then the Imperium would have thrived. Also note that if a single inquisitor could find out the purpose of the necron pylons on Cadia, then a more advanced, forward thinking, non religious society probably could as well, therefore the pylons would have been activated, thus no more Eye of Terror (or at least a much smaller one).
Also far less resources dedicated to battling chaos.
The vastly more powerful and united Imperium in the last 10, 000 years would have been able to keep the ork population in check, combat the piecemeal awakening of Necron tomb worlds, and be in an excellent position to resist the coming of the Tyranid invasion.
...............
...Or the Dornian Heresy happens.
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