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 VarianceHammer wrote:
Forgive raising this thread from the grave once more, but it feels more appropriate to occasionally bump it than to start this anew...

I've done the number crunching for 2017's LVO. There's been some *significant* shakeups: http://variancehammer.com/2017/02/19/lvo-2017-analysis-doom-of-the-eldar/

I'll be honest I don't really understand your model for calculating army advantage.

I agree with the logic though.

1. Eldar are seen as the best faction (proof - its the most popular army at LVO 2017 and most tournaments). This assumes people are aiming to win and have a choice of what they bring. While this isn't going to be universally true (respect to the solitary MT player) it is probably sufficient.
2. Knowing Eldar are the most popular army players need to be able to deal with Eldar if they want to win.
3. This probably makes Eldar less successful than you would expect because armies are geared with them in mind.

This is probably also true with your standard Gladius SM list and Tau.

Beyond that though the key thing for a tournament army is consistency. For instance I think Genestealers are too dependent on cult ambush to prevail over a tournament. When it works you can be massively ahead by the end of your turn 2. When it doesn't however you are probably screwed and in a tournament where you need to win every game I feel the dice will abandon you at some point. Everyone can have a bad shooting phase but this is more critical.

The other thing is how its played - with a focus on objectives unless you table.

This is why I feel Necrons dominate casual tables which often ignore objectives (the line up your stuff, run it at each other for 4-5 turns, just look at who has the most stuff left because kill points never died school of play) but do badly at ITC. They are quite slow and inflexible with not great Ob Sec options. Dark Eldar by contrast are pretty terrible in that situation but if you can avoid being shot off the table they are arguably better at getting maelstrom points and objectives.

People seem to vastly underestimate CSM... they're far stronger than Orks or DE or Harlequins.

That one guy managed to win through full MSU in a very specific mission package doesn't make the DE good in any way.

They give up all manner of kill points for maelstrom or straight KP and they suck at any kind of real combat.

morgoth wrote:
People seem to vastly underestimate CSM... they're far stronger than Orks or DE or Harlequins.

That one guy managed to win through full MSU in a very specific mission package doesn't make the DE good in any way.

They give up all manner of kill points for maelstrom or straight KP and they suck at any kind of real combat.

CSM weren't underestimated at all. With TL out though we need some more tournaments to see what's cracking.

morgoth wrote:
People seem to vastly underestimate CSM... they're far stronger than Orks or DE or Harlequins.

That one guy managed to win through full MSU in a very specific mission package doesn't make the DE good in any way.

They give up all manner of kill points for maelstrom or straight KP and they suck at any kind of real combat.

I'd say people seems to underestimate orks and DE, I've never had any problems with my orks and DE agiainst CSM, and I always considered them the worst army in entire 40k with sisters and AM, before the latest releases. Now they can be mid tier, but the most competitive orks and DE lists are not worse. No one is going to win tournaments with them because they're very difficult to play and quite expensive, I've barely seen a couple of times the typical competitive orks or DE lists in tournament, usually they're full of fluff. CSM instead are way more common, that's the only reason about having more victories in tournaments.

How many times you faced orks lists with 20+ troop bikes and the bullyboyz? what about reavers spam and the corpsethief claw? Problem with armies like these is that many players like fluffy units so people have a wrong perception about them. It mostly depends on the players' experience really, all these armies are not among top tiers but if well played can be above average for sure.

Okay, I'm starting to feel a little worried that my brand new still-to-be-played deathwatch army isnt even considered in all of thede tier lists or the discussion as a whole... Even Genestealers and Harlies get their place, why no love for deathwatch? Are they that bad?

Morkphoiz wrote:
Okay, I'm starting to feel a little worried that my brand new still-to-be-played deathwatch army isnt even considered in all of thede tier lists or the discussion as a whole... Even Genestealers and Harlies get their place, why no love for deathwatch? Are they that bad?

They're just really new so there isn't a long history of feeling for them.

Deathwatch is believed to be stronger than Harlequins and Dark Eldar from what I've seen.

Genestealer Cult is actually really strong.

Death watch is the 100000th imperium army, that's why it's not that popular yet, gen cult is very new too but they're quite different compared to other armies, that's why you see several of their lists in tournaments.

with itc in mind this is my list:
read left to right, strongest-weakest

Tier 1: Eldar, Daemons, Renegades, DA
Tier 2: Necrons, CSM, Space marines
Tier 3: Dark Eldar, Orks, Blood Angels, space wolves, grey knights, KDK, Knights
Tier 4: SoS, Harlies, Deathwatch, Tyranids, whatever else?

 -v10mega wrote:
with itc in mind this is my list:
read left to right, strongest-weakest

Tier 1: Eldar, Daemons, Renegades, DA
Tier 2: Necrons, CSM, Space marines
Tier 3: Dark Eldar, Orks, Blood Angels, space wolves, grey knights, KDK, Knights
Tier 4: SoS, Harlies, Deathwatch, Tyranids, whatever else?

SM should probably be in Tier 1, you forgot Tau (probably Tier 2 in ITC), and if TWC and Wulfen are involved, Space Wolves could easily be Tier 2. Other than that, probably about right.

 EnTyme wrote:

 -v10mega wrote:
with itc in mind this is my list:
read left to right, strongest-weakest

Tier 1: Eldar, Daemons, Renegades, DA
Tier 2: Necrons, CSM, Space marines
Tier 3: Dark Eldar, Orks, Blood Angels, space wolves, grey knights, KDK, Knights
Tier 4: SoS, Harlies, Deathwatch, Tyranids, whatever else?

SM should probably be in Tier 1, you forgot Tau (probably Tier 2 in ITC), and if TWC and Wulfen are involved, Space Wolves could easily be Tier 2. Other than that, probably about right.

Is SM still tier 1 without electro-displacement (ITC)?
Is that with Gladius or Skyhammer stuff?

Shouldn't Imperial Knights be better off than the rest of tier 3?

Also, Renegades and Dark Angels... what?
Is it the ForgeWorld Renegades?

How come DA are so high, is it because of the mission package of the ITC which is so skewed towards (what exactly)?

SM definitely tier 1, SW and DA tier 2, renegades surely not tier 1. Tau can be tier 1 or 2, probably 1. I'd also add gen cult tier 2 and ad mech/skitarii tier 2 or 3, probably 3.

We can debate tier 3/4 but there's really no reason I think. I don't think BA are really better than Nids.

You people who've tau in top tier but not demons/magnus make me laugh

The article linked on the LVO shows how strong Daemons really are.

The data also doesn't support what people are quoting to be the tiers here in this thread.

Tau, Space Marines, Chaos Space Marines, Dark Eldar, and Tyranids all performed fairly similar, when adjusted for player skill, at the LVO, which was barely better than average. So if your "middling" tier is tier3, all of these armies (at the LVO) would belong there.

The LVO is not really standard 40K either.

These days mission packs make tournaments very different from the game itself and general rankings.

How are people doing poorly with IG?

Bring platoons with heavy weapon teams in the infantry squads, bring mass wyvers, veterans and CCS in chimeras with plasma and melta guns, bring forgeworld manticores/medusas, and ignore cover!

... HWTs in infantry squads? That's a bit of a waste tbh.

Also that list you described just doesn't have the staying power and firepower needed for a modern top tier list.

 Melissia wrote:
... HWTs in infantry squads? That's a bit of a waste tbh.

Also that list you described just doesn't have the staying power and firepower needed for a modern top tier list.

Yup that way the guardsman are ablative wounds for the heavy weapon teams, as well as objective holders, and support the fight against MC's. With 120+ bodies on the table, conscripts, artillery, heavy teams, and comissars, there's plenty of staying power!

 Dalymiddleboro wrote:

 Melissia wrote:
... HWTs in infantry squads? That's a bit of a waste tbh.

Also that list you described just doesn't have the staying power and firepower needed for a modern top tier list.

Yup that way the guardsman are ablative wounds for the heavy weapon teams, as well as objective holders, and support the fight against MC's. With 120+ bodies on the table, conscripts, artillery, heavy teams, and comissars, there's plenty of staying power!

you just wasted ~190ish pt to get one heavy weapon iirc. Not to mention there's no mobility to take objectives, or staying power once you're there. 50 bodies might seem like a lot, but T3 5+ can only take you so far.

 -v10mega wrote:
with itc in mind this is my list:
read left to right, strongest-weakest

Tier 1: Eldar, Daemons, Renegades, DA
Tier 2: Necrons, CSM, Space marines
Tier 3: Dark Eldar, Orks, Blood Angels, space wolves, grey knights, KDK, Knights
Tier 4: SoS, Harlies, Deathwatch, Tyranids, whatever else?

It'd still not agree with this.

I'd rate Space Wolves and Knights above CSM and Space Marines above CSM as well.

CSM are one of those armies that is wholly dependant on a jigsaw puzzle of dataslates and supplements - and ironically their 'best' supplement, Traitor Legions has also crippled them someone by making the staple choices somewhat less desirable (KDK compared to World Eaters) or by adding extra tax to units that didn't have Tax before (Be'lakor now requires a seperate CAD or ally detachment) - this is turn, with ITC rules hurts even more - they have a 3 detachment rule so by forcing something you could originally have stuck into a single Force Org or detachment into another you actually start cutting off other options.


That in mind - CSM literally hover between mid T3 (even then their performance will depend against their match ups - Death Guard and World Eaters will do amazing if they don't come across Triptide or Grav spam Convocations, otherwise they'd do terribly) and mid T4 (You cannot seriously tell me Word Bearers have any sort of promise from Traitor Legions....)

 Wolfblade wrote:

 Dalymiddleboro wrote:

 Melissia wrote:
... HWTs in infantry squads? That's a bit of a waste tbh.

Also that list you described just doesn't have the staying power and firepower needed for a modern top tier list.

Yup that way the guardsman are ablative wounds for the heavy weapon teams, as well as objective holders, and support the fight against MC's. With 120+ bodies on the table, conscripts, artillery, heavy teams, and comissars, there's plenty of staying power!

you just wasted ~190ish pt to get one heavy weapon iirc. Not to mention there's no mobility to take objectives, or staying power once you're there. 50 bodies might seem like a lot, but T3 5+ can only take you so far.

That's why you have conscripts with run run run, chimera vets to compliment them. Also, for a last cannon this way it's 70 points, and that comes with 8 bodies with each las cannon in the platoon, 10 total wounds. That's not a waste at all, considering they can be verasitle on what they fire at, and are difficult to remove with a commissar in a platoon blob!

I have an 1850 list that off of the top of my head looks like this:

HQ:


Company Command Squad A:
Company Commander
3 Plasma veterans
Vox Caster Veteran
In a Chimera with multi laser, and heavy bolter with dozer blades

Company Command Squad B:
Company Commander
3 Plasma veterans
Vox Caster veteran
In a Chimera with multi laser, and heavy bolter with dozer blades


Troops:

Company Platoon:

Platoon Command squad

Commissar
Infantry Squad, lascannon team
Infantry Squad, lascannon team
Infantry Squad, lascannon team
Infantry Squad, lascannon team
Infantry Squad, lascannon team

Commissar with 50 conscripts


Veteran Squad:
3 Melta gun veterans
7 normal veterans
In a Chimera with multi laser, and heavy bolter with dozer blades

Veteran Squad:
3 Melta gun veterans
7 normal veterans
In a Chimera with multi laser, and heavy bolter with dozer blades



Heavy Support:

3 Wyvern, with heavy flamer

Medusa Artillery carriage
Medusa Artillery Carriage

Forgeworld Manticore(str 9 ap2 massive blast one)
Forgeworld Manticore(str 9 ap2 massive blast one)


Aegis Defense Line

I personally feel that Grey Knights are in the middle. We can be competitive but we have exactly 1 competitive build, Terminator+Dreadknight+Psyker spam, and the other 3/4 of the codex is garbage. So we just need an internal balance overhaul.

What GKs would need is IMO,

1) Add Drop Pods. I think we're literally the only loyalist marines who don't have them. We use them in the fluff, so we should at least have access.

2) Change Psycannons back to just being Assault so that PAGKs can actually use them.

3) Give us back psybolts for 20 points per squad. Our only access to melta is on relatively poor vehicle choices, least you can do is make all those stormbolters a little more useful. And give us a reason to run vehicles for psybolt buffed autocannons and bolters.

That would fix the internal balance and give a little more anti-tank.

You can have psybolts, but not as +1 str. That never made any sense. They need to be anti-psyker rounds and anti-daemon rounds.

Martel732 wrote:
You can have psybolts, but not as +1 str. That never made any sense. They need to be anti-psyker rounds and anti-daemon rounds.

+1 str actually makes sense. fluffwise, they should be both +1 str AND ignore invulns. For balance, it can just be +1 str.

+1str also already exists as precedent. Psycannons are assault cannons with psybolts and suspensors. Psybolts give +1str, and suspensors let it move and fire.

 Grey Templar wrote:

Martel732 wrote:
You can have psybolts, but not as +1 str. That never made any sense. They need to be anti-psyker rounds and anti-daemon rounds.

+1 str actually makes sense. fluffwise, they should be both +1 str AND ignore invulns. For balance, it can just be +1 str.

+1str also already exists as precedent. Psycannons are assault cannons with psybolts and suspensors. Psybolts give +1str, and suspensors let it move and fire.

Well, I disagree. I don't care what they are the fluff. +1 str is too much. GK are anti-daemon, not anti-everything.

"+1str also already exists as precedent. "

A really terrible one that still causes me to laugh when bad things happen to GK on the tabletop.

So you think GKs should suck vs everything except Daemons?

Having to pay extra points for Str5 Stormbolters seems fair when you have no melta or lascannon access outside vehicles nobody wants to take(aside the Stormraven).

 Grey Templar wrote:
So you think GKs should suck vs everything except Daemons?

Having to pay extra points for Str5 Stormbolters seems fair when you have no melta or lascannon access outside vehicles nobody wants to take(aside the Stormraven).

Depends. Do you think you've paid off the karma from 5th yet? GK made that edition miserable as soon as they came out.

You act like melta and lascannons are desirable or relevant. How cute. Melta is sometimes, vs SHW or SHV. But lascannons are pure garbage in 7th. Your own Dreadknight demonstrates why.

So problems with that:
The guardsmen squads are ~8 wounds on T3 5+, or more with the defense line, but that then requires an order for them to not fire snap shots. Not to mention it's 81pt for one lascannon shot (70 if you don't count the PCS as a tax for it).
Conscripts are still T3 5+, and no save outside of whatever cover they can grab/GTG. They might stick around until the last man, but that won't take long.
Vets are decent, but with so few vehicles they'll be without a transport pretty quickly, which makes it hard to get those melta guns in range.
Wyverns/arty are good obviously, but with side AV10, they'll go down to mid strength shots pretty quick.
The manticore also has a minimum range of 36", so firing with them can be pretty hard depending on who goes first, and how fast they are.

 Wolfblade wrote:

Spoiler:

 Dalymiddleboro wrote:

 Wolfblade wrote:

 Dalymiddleboro wrote:

 Melissia wrote:
... HWTs in infantry squads? That's a bit of a waste tbh.

Also that list you described just doesn't have the staying power and firepower needed for a modern top tier list.

Yup that way the guardsman are ablative wounds for the heavy weapon teams, as well as objective holders, and support the fight against MC's. With 120+ bodies on the table, conscripts, artillery, heavy teams, and comissars, there's plenty of staying power!

you just wasted ~190ish pt to get one heavy weapon iirc. Not to mention there's no mobility to take objectives, or staying power once you're there. 50 bodies might seem like a lot, but T3 5+ can only take you so far.

That's why you have conscripts with run run run, chimera vets to compliment them. Also, for a last cannon this way it's 70 points, and that comes with 8 bodies with each las cannon in the platoon, 10 total wounds. That's not a waste at all, considering they can be verasitle on what they fire at, and are difficult to remove with a commissar in a platoon blob!

I have an 1850 list that off of the top of my head looks like this:

HQ:


Company Command Squad A:
Company Commander
3 Plasma veterans
Vox Caster Veteran
In a Chimera with multi laser, and heavy bolter with dozer blades

Company Command Squad B:
Company Commander
3 Plasma veterans
Vox Caster veteran
In a Chimera with multi laser, and heavy bolter with dozer blades


Troops:

Company Platoon:

Platoon Command squad

Commissar
Infantry Squad, lascannon team
Infantry Squad, lascannon team
Infantry Squad, lascannon team
Infantry Squad, lascannon team
Infantry Squad, lascannon team

Commissar with 50 conscripts


Veteran Squad:
3 Melta gun veterans
7 normal veterans
In a Chimera with multi laser, and heavy bolter with dozer blades

Veteran Squad:
3 Melta gun veterans
7 normal veterans
In a Chimera with multi laser, and heavy bolter with dozer blades



Heavy Support:

3 Wyvern, with heavy flamer

Medusa Artillery carriage
Medusa Artillery Carriage

Forgeworld Manticore(str 9 ap2 massive blast one)
Forgeworld Manticore(str 9 ap2 massive blast one)


Aegis Defense Line

So problems with that:
The guardsmen squads are ~8 wounds on T3 5+, or more with the defense line, but that then requires an order for them to not fire snap shots. Not to mention it's 81pt for one lascannon shot (70 if you don't count the PCS as a tax for it).
Conscripts are still T3 5+, and no save outside of whatever cover they can grab/GTG. They might stick around until the last man, but that won't take long.
Vets are decent, but with so few vehicles they'll be without a transport pretty quickly, which makes it hard to get those melta guns in range.
Wyverns/arty are good obviously, but with side AV10, they'll go down to mid strength shots pretty quick.
The manticore also has a minimum range of 36", so firing with them can be pretty hard depending on who goes first, and how fast they are.

Guard wise, it's about as good of a list I could throw together.

What would you bring at 1850?

 Dalymiddleboro wrote:

 Wolfblade wrote:

Spoiler:

 Dalymiddleboro wrote:

 Wolfblade wrote:

 Dalymiddleboro wrote:

 Melissia wrote:
... HWTs in infantry squads? That's a bit of a waste tbh.

Also that list you described just doesn't have the staying power and firepower needed for a modern top tier list.

Yup that way the guardsman are ablative wounds for the heavy weapon teams, as well as objective holders, and support the fight against MC's. With 120+ bodies on the table, conscripts, artillery, heavy teams, and comissars, there's plenty of staying power!

you just wasted ~190ish pt to get one heavy weapon iirc. Not to mention there's no mobility to take objectives, or staying power once you're there. 50 bodies might seem like a lot, but T3 5+ can only take you so far.

That's why you have conscripts with run run run, chimera vets to compliment them. Also, for a last cannon this way it's 70 points, and that comes with 8 bodies with each las cannon in the platoon, 10 total wounds. That's not a waste at all, considering they can be verasitle on what they fire at, and are difficult to remove with a commissar in a platoon blob!

I have an 1850 list that off of the top of my head looks like this:

HQ:


Company Command Squad A:
Company Commander
3 Plasma veterans
Vox Caster Veteran
In a Chimera with multi laser, and heavy bolter with dozer blades

Company Command Squad B:
Company Commander
3 Plasma veterans
Vox Caster veteran
In a Chimera with multi laser, and heavy bolter with dozer blades


Troops:

Company Platoon:

Platoon Command squad

Commissar
Infantry Squad, lascannon team
Infantry Squad, lascannon team
Infantry Squad, lascannon team
Infantry Squad, lascannon team
Infantry Squad, lascannon team

Commissar with 50 conscripts


Veteran Squad:
3 Melta gun veterans
7 normal veterans
In a Chimera with multi laser, and heavy bolter with dozer blades

Veteran Squad:
3 Melta gun veterans
7 normal veterans
In a Chimera with multi laser, and heavy bolter with dozer blades



Heavy Support:

3 Wyvern, with heavy flamer

Medusa Artillery carriage
Medusa Artillery Carriage

Forgeworld Manticore(str 9 ap2 massive blast one)
Forgeworld Manticore(str 9 ap2 massive blast one)


Aegis Defense Line

So problems with that:
The guardsmen squads are ~8 wounds on T3 5+, or more with the defense line, but that then requires an order for them to not fire snap shots. Not to mention it's 81pt for one lascannon shot (70 if you don't count the PCS as a tax for it).
Conscripts are still T3 5+, and no save outside of whatever cover they can grab/GTG. They might stick around until the last man, but that won't take long.
Vets are decent, but with so few vehicles they'll be without a transport pretty quickly, which makes it hard to get those melta guns in range.
Wyverns/arty are good obviously, but with side AV10, they'll go down to mid strength shots pretty quick.
The manticore also has a minimum range of 36", so firing with them can be pretty hard depending on who goes first, and how fast they are.

Guard wise, it's about as good of a list I could throw together.

What would you bring at 1850?

Something similar, but probably with more auto cannons instead of lascannons, and valks for the vets.