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I actually like Applebees. Their ribs are very good.

Some of consumer confidence is basically guesswork because you cannot know the future. However some of it reflects real effects on consumers of wage stagnation, job insecurity, price inflation and social security.

 Easy E wrote:
Thanks Sebs.

So, a lot of this is just a big Confidence Game base on consumer reactions?

There is certainly an effect where positive sentiment leads to improved demand and investment, which in turn leads to more positive sentiment, or vice versa for negative sentiment, But that's probably overstated compared to the effect that real economic fundamentals. Most recessions happen because growth has outstripped productivity, or because some kind of system shock has messed up the economy, or because demand has collapsed. Consumer confidence reflects that, more than it drives it.