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I was watching a battle report on youtube, a guy charged his knights errant (had about 9-12 of them) into an almost full unit of chosen (about 18-20 chaos chosen, didn't say which mark but probably khorne) He mentioned before that "No way knights errant can beat chosen on their own" guess what, the chosen lose combat and run away, they reform, get charged again, and run again.

My question though echo's the Bretonnian player's, what are the odds of this happening? I don't play fantasy, but I have heard that Knights are not what they once were as a combat unit, and chosen never stopped being super-choppy, so what ARE the odds of a full unit of knights errant beating a full unit of chaos chosen? (Assuming the knights can charge that is)

Small...its very small. I don't have time to crunch the numbers, I'm sure somebody will though.

Well, I rolled some dice a bit ago based on my limited knowledge. The thing was, he had those cav in 3 by 4, 4 ranks deep, so he had an advantage in rez on the 2 rank chosen unit. I'm not sure what else he had, but in my rolling, the knights won by 1 wound, but had more ranks and some other bonuses, so it is possible to 'win' but the thing is the chosen have to break, and that's not normally easy.

(Edit: I don't remember if they were errants or realm knights, here's the vid http://il.youtube.com/watch?v=7akCk3EQJT8 at about 9:00 he charges in, at the very end he mentions that the Knights of the Realm managed to win)

Not knowing Brettonian stats completely i will give this a go with the new rules. Brett players feel free to correct me.

20 Chosen in 4x5 with Halbards, Shields and MoK.

12 Knights of the Realm in Lance formation 3x4.

Knights charge.

Chosen swing first(I5 vs I3) with 21 attacks(10 first rank, 5 second rank +1 for champion +5 for frenzy)

WS6 vs WS4. 3+ to hit

14 hits

Str5 vs T3. 2+ to wound

11.6 wounds. -2 to armor save

2+ save becomes 4+ save.

5.8 knights die. we will round up to 6.

6 Knights swing back. 6 attacks(3 first rank, 2 from Lance +1 for Champion) and 3 attacks from Steeds

WS4 vs WS6, 4+ to hit.

3 hit. 1.5 hits from steeds.

Str5(from lances) vs T4, 3+ to wound. Str3(steeds) vs T4 5+ to wound

2 wounds. +.5 from steeds.

2 wounds at -2 to armor. 3+ becomes 5+.

1.4 unsaved wounds total from both steeds and knights. rounding to 1 dead chosen

Chosen have 6 combat res. knights have 2(+1 for charge).

Knights lose combat by 4 and must take a Ld test at Ld4(5 if general is nearby)


not good odds for knights vs Chosen

Dont forget chosen also get a free bonus too. They may have a +4 ward and stubborn on a lucky roll!

it's 50%/50%

Either they break, or they don't.

kenshin620 wrote:Dont forget chosen also get a free bonus too. They may have a +4 ward and stubborn on a lucky roll!

yeah

Didn't factor that in because how can you factor something that random in?



simply put, knights of the Realm(and any other brett knight unit for that matter) shouldn't charge Chosen and certaintly not from the front.


Automatically Appended Next Post:

Ragnar4 wrote:it's 50%/50%

Either they break, or they don't.

it isn't exactly 50/50 for anyone to break.

on average the knights will lose by 4. this means testing on ld4. even if we are generous and assume the BSB is nearby, the knights will be running.

so it takes 6 Knights to kill 1 Chosen and the Knights will likely run.

From what im guessing they would be tzeentch most want to combine that with the rolls on the eye of the gods for a real nice ward save.

So its more like 16 attacks so 11 hit , 9 wound.
Then against strength 5 hits they get a 4+ and then 5+ward from praying which i would imagine any good bret player would against chaos.

So 4.5 fail normal save round up to 5 then after ward save only 3 should die.

So yeah they can win but its still rare.

In the video if they kill 3 +1 rank +1 standard =5
Brets have +1 standard+2ranks if only 3 die +1 charging so only need to kill 1 chosen to hang around, If you combine the fact that most brets have war banners and virtues as they rely on having great static res.

Well, the OP wanted to know what khorn Chosen do.

Tzeench chosen would have a 6+ ward in addition to the EotG roll, but i had to ignore that because there is simply too many possabilities to account for.


for certain all chosen will be more dangerous because they will have an EotG ability

If tz with halbards and shields you should kill 3.

Then they have say 9 left. Call it 9 attacks (champ), 3 from the horses). Causes 2.286 wounds assuming 6+ armor save and 6+ ward with t4.

That is the base case scenario. So depending on the random upgrade they get changes the scenario, +1 s adds a kill. +1 t means 1.67 wounds back. 4+ (goes to 3+) ward means .916 wounds.

Now that is not probability of it happening, but the expected value. You would have to look at the variance and assume a normal distribution.

Grey Templar wrote:


Automatically Appended Next Post:

Ragnar4 wrote:it's 50%/50%

Either they break, or they don't.

it isn't exactly 50/50 for anyone to break.

on average the knights will lose by 4. this means testing on ld4. even if we are generous and assume the BSB is nearby, the knights will be running.

so it takes 6 Knights to kill 1 Chosen and the Knights will likely run.

You have 2 choices
Run or Don't run
100% devided by 2 = 50%

All the math you'll ever need.

50/50.

You either will run, or you won't.

Ragnar4 wrote:

Grey Templar wrote:


Automatically Appended Next Post:

Ragnar4 wrote:it's 50%/50%

Either they break, or they don't.

it isn't exactly 50/50 for anyone to break.

on average the knights will lose by 4. this means testing on ld4. even if we are generous and assume the BSB is nearby, the knights will be running.

so it takes 6 Knights to kill 1 Chosen and the Knights will likely run.

You have 2 choices
Run or Don't run
100% devided by 2 = 50%

All the math you'll ever need.

50/50.

You either will run, or you won't.

There need to be Coinhammer

Everything is quick and dirty with dice replaced by coins

Ragnar4 wrote:

Grey Templar wrote:


Automatically Appended Next Post:

Ragnar4 wrote:it's 50%/50%

Either they break, or they don't.

it isn't exactly 50/50 for anyone to break.

on average the knights will lose by 4. this means testing on ld4. even if we are generous and assume the BSB is nearby, the knights will be running.

so it takes 6 Knights to kill 1 Chosen and the Knights will likely run.

You have 2 choices
Run or Don't run
100% devided by 2 = 50%

All the math you'll ever need.

50/50.

You either will run, or you won't.

I reccomend going back to math class

youbedead wrote:

I reccomend going back to math class

heh.

Grey Templar wrote:Not knowing Brettonian stats completely i will give this a go with the new rules. Brett players feel free to correct me.

20 Chosen in 4x5 with Halbards, Shields and MoK.

12 Knights of the Realm in Lance formation 3x4.

Knights charge.

Chosen swing first(I5 vs I3) with 21 attacks(10 first rank, 5 second rank +1 for champion +5 for frenzy)

WS6 vs WS4. 3+ to hit

14 hits

Str5 vs T3. 2+ to wound

11.6 wounds. -2 to armor save

2+ save becomes 4+ save.

5.8 knights die. we will round up to 6.

6 Knights swing back. 6 attacks(3 first rank, 2 from Lance +1 for Champion) and 3 attacks from Steeds

WS4 vs WS6, 4+ to hit.

3 hit. 1.5 hits from steeds.

Str5(from lances) vs T4, 3+ to wound. Str3(steeds) vs T4 5+ to wound

2 wounds. +.5 from steeds.

2 wounds at -2 to armor. 3+ becomes 5+.

1.4 unsaved wounds total from both steeds and knights. rounding to 1 dead chosen

Chosen have 6 combat res. knights have 2(+1 for charge).

Knights lose combat by 4 and must take a Ld test at Ld4(5 if general is nearby)


not good odds for knights vs Chosen

12 KotR in a lance have 11 attacks, not 6

EmilCrane wrote:

Grey Templar wrote:Not knowing Brettonian stats completely i will give this a go with the new rules. Brett players feel free to correct me.

20 Chosen in 4x5 with Halbards, Shields and MoK.

12 Knights of the Realm in Lance formation 3x4.

Knights charge.

Chosen swing first(I5 vs I3) with 21 attacks(10 first rank, 5 second rank +1 for champion +5 for frenzy)

WS6 vs WS4. 3+ to hit

14 hits

Str5 vs T3. 2+ to wound

11.6 wounds. -2 to armor save

2+ save becomes 4+ save.

5.8 knights die. we will round up to 6.

6 Knights swing back. 6 attacks(3 first rank, 2 from Lance +1 for Champion) and 3 attacks from Steeds

WS4 vs WS6, 4+ to hit.

3 hit. 1.5 hits from steeds.

Str5(from lances) vs T4, 3+ to wound. Str3(steeds) vs T4 5+ to wound

2 wounds. +.5 from steeds.

2 wounds at -2 to armor. 3+ becomes 5+.

1.4 unsaved wounds total from both steeds and knights. rounding to 1 dead chosen

Chosen have 6 combat res. knights have 2(+1 for charge).

Knights lose combat by 4 and must take a Ld test at Ld4(5 if general is nearby)


not good odds for knights vs Chosen

12 KotR in a lance have 11 attacks, not 6

There arent 12 knights anymore. There are 6

kenshin620 wrote:

There arent 12 knights anymore. There are 6

Oops... missed that, used to my knights striking first

Well there should be 9 left after we applied the blessing of the lady etc. Its hard to work out when we dont know what marks/eye of gods roll the chosen have or what banner the errant have.