ok ok ok
I say this a lot, but
NEVER EVER run fire dragons in falcons.
That said I recognize that it is very easy to be fooled by the carrying capacity. However the Falcon grav tank plays an extremely different role than Fire Dragons.
The role of fire dragons, is to fly into the heart of the enemy early on, and nuke a centerpiece of his army, this includes a land raider carrying
TH/
SS termies, etc, or a battle wagon full of nobs, etc. Often times this leaves the dragons and their tank in the middle of kill range for your opponent.
The role of a Falcon is to make use of its 3 heavy weapons, and transport ability to take a min squad of Dire Avengers, then sit on an objective, and provide long range fire support. This is emphasized by its 3 heavy weapons.
Consider this, if you move a Falcon 12 inches, it can only fire a single gun, at bs3. If you move a wave serpent 12 inches, it can fire its single turret
tl at full effectiveness. This is infinately better. Further a wave serpent with a
tl shuri cannon costs only 100 points. You feel much worse about losing it than an expensive 180 point falcon.
Further a Wave Serpent's special rules are actually tailored for carrying fire dragons into the fray. the energy field rule protects it against close range anti tank- such as melta guns and rending weapons. On the other hand, the Falcon is no better at taking close range fire power than it is at taking long range fire power.
these units are an awful mix, and create huge point inefficiencies in your list.
I don't think the exarch's are necessary, a single heavy flamer doesn't make them that multi purpose, and even against foot lists you can still generally find something that doesn't like melta guns- such as meganobs or tyranid warriors or
MCs. I'd just take 5 plain dragons so that you can keep the costs down and buy more guns for your list.
Your jetbike squads look good. I'd give each of your warlock's a singing spear. They have the mobility to deliver it, and having those extra s9 hits is useful, especially considering their knack for finding side and rear armor.
I wouldn't use shining spears- they are very expensive, absolutely rubbish if you don't get the charge and as durable (not) as a tactical space marine combat squad to small arms fire. Stick to the warlock council, the Autarch's power weapon attacks there can be a huge boon to their killing power, and he benefits from fortune. I'd toss a fusion gun onto him for some extra
AT ability.
if you have any spare points, try to fit on 2 fire prisms. Otherwise Vypers will do just fine for filling gaps. Either go
EML + underslung cannon, only scatter laser, or 2 cannons.
other than that it looks like a solid saim han list