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Shoota vs Slugga vs Stick boyz
Ok first Stick boyz…. Right. Let’s move on.
So here are the parameters. Unit of 30 boyz, no Nob or anything else. Just boyz.
Oh and my math is terrible so it could be way off. And I’m no good with Statistics so help me out.
Boyz initiating an assault
Shoota boyz
Assault 2+ 2 CC attacks+ Assault = 5 Attacks
Chance to hit
BS of 2 so a third of the unit will hit 1/3 of the time so they will hit (roughly) 20 times with Assault 2 Shoota.
Once in assault with a WS of 4 they will hit 2/3 of the time against an opponent with ws 4 so = 60 hits.
So in assault they will hit 80 times
Wound on a 4 against opponent with T 4. This is including +1 S for Furious Assault. So 2/3 of their hits will wound = 60
Slugga Boyz
Assault 1 + 3 CC + Assault = 5 Attacks
Chance to hit
BS 2 with Slugga = 10
CC = 80
Initiating Assault = 90 hits
With 67 wounds.
Now in the rare circumstance that the boyz are assaulted then the difference is clear in my opinion.
Fallowing the same rough math.
Shoota
Hits = 40
W = 13
Slugga
Hits = 60
W = 20
So what have we learned? Slugga boyz are better in my opinion. Orks should always initiate assault. With a few caveats, Shoota boyz will most likely get off a shot a turn before this assault happens due to range on the shoota. This could balance things out. Making them virtually the same. This is also not taking into account that Boyz initiative is pretty low in comparison and you’ll probably lose a few boyz in the assault before you get to attack. And I hope this is the appropriate forum for this. Wasn't sure if it should go in Tactics.
Opinions? Is my math way off or am I missing something?

The Choice of Shoota Boyz and Slugga Boyz is largely dependant on the theme of the army, not which one's more effective. It also depends on the type of enemies you'll be facing. If you're gonna face some Daemonettes, Shootas are superior since you wont get your face torn off in Close combat (given that both units lack a decent save, but only Shoota Boyz actually has a ranged attack, it's better to stay the hell out of their superior initative range and keep them within your sights). Slugga boyz will get one shot off at most against Daemonettes, before they close the distance and start tearing your face off. Their superior initiative and high amount of attacks will ensure that only a small fraction of your boyz remain in CC, and most likely force a terrible Morale Check for you due to the amount of casualties you'll suffer.

There are too many variables to do a direct comparison.

Shoota boys have assault 2 guns - shots that they won't lose to boyz dying on the assault before getting to make their attacks.

On the flip side, you could very potentially shoot yourself out of assault range.

On the flip side of that, those shoota boyz can get in a turn or two of fire before the assault.

On the flip side of that....

It goes round and round. Comes down to the kind of army you're running and which fits better.

Dash is flippin' right on the money