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Hey all,

So it's been a long time since I've worked with probabilities and this one is really starting to hurt my head. So if anyone feels like taking it on, and maybe even explaining it to me, then I'd really appreciate it.

A friend of mine and I had a little 500 pt battle last night, and my Furioso Dreadnought went 4 rounds with a 5 man squad of Grey Knight Terminators with Brotherhood Champion, and it only took 2 stunned results once in a single round. Otherwise his single Daemon Hammer missed or failed to glance/pen.

So I'm wondering what is the probability of killing a Furioso Dread with a 5 man Squad of GK Termies with a single Daemon Hammer and a Brotherhood Banner? We'll ignore the Brotherhood Champion for the moment, as he could change HQ's in larger battles.

Any help would be appreciated!

I can't be bothered to do the actual math, but let's just say that dread was VERY lucky not to get smashed.

Yes, I agree.

My friend feels that what happened is a reasonable outcome though, so I wanted to actually give him a number that said, "Here, you actually have a XX% chance of killing it in a single round of CC" :p

Especially since we've seen this happen before, except the shoe was on the other foot. I had a Chaos Dread CC his Eldar Farseer in a 1500 pt game and the Dreadnought did zero wounds to the Farseer and eventually got exploded.

And for the record, yes we're both terrible dice rollers.

Depends on who charged who, if you got talons or fists- a str 8 hammer glances on a 5, so there's about a 16.7% chance of a pen per hit, with 33% that the pen will stop the dread. The dread on the other hand will likely kill 2 to 3 if he has blood fists on the charge, and probably wipe the squad if he has talons on the charge.
That 13 front on furiosos is a lot hardier than people think, especially in cc

Slick wrote:Depends on who charged who, if you got talons or fists- a str 8 hammer glances on a 5, so there's about a 16.7% chance of a pen per hit, with 33% that the pen will stop the dread. The dread on the other hand will likely kill 2 to 3 if he has blood fists on the charge, and probably wipe the squad if he has talons on the charge.
That 13 front on furiosos is a lot hardier than people think, especially in cc

Str 10 Hammer. Grey Knights have Hammerhand.

I'm assuming he charged me, because last night he did. He also forgot hammerhand, but we both forgot that he needed it to get the Str 10. So he attacked at Str 10.

And yes, AV 13 was even tougher than I expected. It took 8 shots from psycannons before he charged (2 separte units fired their cannons) and the dread suffered no glances or pens.

So as far as I'm concerned, I got extra-special lucky.