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I always think it's interesting to look at the ads on Dakka's Swap Shop and Bartertown to get an idea of the trends in the gaming world, particularly in 40k and Fantasy. You can get an idea pretty easily of what armies are popular (what are folks looking to trade for or buy), what armies folks think have been nerfed (the armies folks are trying to dump), and what units people think are keys to building their armies (what are common models people are looking for in their ads - SM Missile Launchers? Chimeras?). So, I thought it'd be interesting to look and see if GW's recent shakeup is actually translating to folks changing their spending/trading habits.

I'm not speaking for either the Swap Shop mods here, or for any of Bartertown's admins - this is just an observation I made today after looking through the ads on both of these sites. While there's a lot of venom directed at GW for their various recent activities, and quite a few people talking about boycotting GW or switching games, in looking at the ads in the Swap Shop and on Bartertown, I'm not seeing much evidence that people are that willing to let go and try something new. Granted, mainly I was looking specifically for ads in which people were looking to trade their GW models for Privateer Press games, so maybe I overlooked the flood of folks wanting to play FOW or Malifaux or Infinity. But frankly, the vast majority of the ads on the Swap Shop are folks still looking for GW models. I didn't see a particular increase in the number of folks looking to get out of GW and into PP. Similarly, looking on Bartertown, I didn't see a significant increase in the number of posts in the PP section looking to trade their GW for PP models. I mean, yes, people are putting up those ads, but not in any greater numbers than I'm used to seeing.

Is it that rather than trying to trade their GW minis that they're just trying to sell them and get out of gaming? (Or use the money to buy new PP/Infinity/Malifaux/FOW minis?) Or am I missing something here?

GW minis are still valuable. You can still play 40k with them. From what I can tell, the general consensus is that there are a sizable number of people who are not going to be buying anymore (or only a very limited amount) of minis from GW anymore.

They may love 40k, but hate GW. My last purchase from Gw was well over a year ago, and I've only spent about 100 dollars from 2004 to now. I still play 40k though, and you're not going to see me trading off the minis I worked hard on converting and painting.

Yeah, I'm stopping buying, not stopping playing!

I think most people are the same. We've got armies to play, so why not play. It's the buying that's expensive!

I personally am going to try to start some other games, it's all just a matter of where I can find players. There are a lot of Warmachine players in my area, so I'm thinking I'll go with that.

Only the the other day I spent £200 on GW stuff. Ok, that was my annual amount spent in one go, but there was a steady stream of people in the store happily buying away. Some people think they will struggle in the long term, but as sure as I have a hole in my ass, GW will not go under. They will survive and thrive. You can quote me on this.

Just very careful targetted spending. I haven't bought anything from the last three releases (DE, GK and TK). Bought a couple of scneery pieces - which seem to remain good value. All I am doing is bulking up my Dark Elf army troops for 8th (Don't need any more Ogres).

I know longer play 40k but Dark Eldar was going to be my way back in but I just couldn;t justify it. Considering I am a "double income no kids" customers with a high disposable income this should be worrying GW.

Normally I pick up a model or two without thinking from each release, even if I don't play them, just too paint. Now, I look at them, look at the price and try to justify it. So I am lost unit sales.

I'd almost finished my ork army and was looking at starting a blood angles army.. Instead I bought a Battle of Olympus warband from Crocodile Games for less than what I would have spent on the vehicles for a BA army. Guess I'm sticking with orks for the time being!

Personally I am just waiting on the Necron codex. When I see how that codex turns out, I will pick one army and update/maintain it and everything else is getting sold.

Yeah I'm not trading out. I did drop fantasy due to price and (mostly) time factor, but still plan on playing 40K, Mordhieim, Blood Bowl.

However I have no plans to add to my 40K armies for the rest of the year at least unless via the Swap Shop. Going to take time to paint what I have.
I may purchase some Necrons for my eldest Son, but that will be a big part of his Christmas stuff this year and I'd have got those anyways.

I have just jumped into Infinity though, £150 to get me into the game. Going on the fact I have already put my fourteen figs together, based and begun painting them in around 24hrs, a record for me.
I seem pretty hyped on Infinity and could be for most of the year and beyond.

I already have spotted models I will be adding to my Nomad forces asap.

Hmmm... I disagree. I typically browse Bartertown every day, and there's a pretty noticeable trend of people looking to get rid of GW stuff for other game systems.

About 99% of Dakka is geared towards GW enthusiasts, so it's not surprising that most of the Ads are for GW systems.

Its almost as if people talk big on the internet....and then don't follow through with it?

Nah, crazy talk. Ignore this.

Death By Monkeys wrote:I always think it's interesting to look at the ads on Dakka's Swap Shop and Bartertown to get an idea of the trends in the gaming world, particularly in 40k and Fantasy. You can get an idea pretty easily of what armies are popular (what are folks looking to trade for or buy), what armies folks think have been nerfed (the armies folks are trying to dump), and what units people think are keys to building their armies (what are common models people are looking for in their ads - SM Missile Launchers? Chimeras?). So, I thought it'd be interesting to look and see if GW's recent shakeup is actually translating to folks changing their spending/trading habits.

I'm not speaking for either the Swap Shop mods here, or for any of Bartertown's admins - this is just an observation I made today after looking through the ads on both of these sites. While there's a lot of venom directed at GW for their various recent activities, and quite a few people talking about boycotting GW or switching games, in looking at the ads in the Swap Shop and on Bartertown, I'm not seeing much evidence that people are that willing to let go and try something new. Granted, mainly I was looking specifically for ads in which people were looking to trade their GW models for Privateer Press games, so maybe I overlooked the flood of folks wanting to play FOW or Malifaux or Infinity. But frankly, the vast majority of the ads on the Swap Shop are folks still looking for GW models. I didn't see a particular increase in the number of folks looking to get out of GW and into PP. Similarly, looking on Bartertown, I didn't see a significant increase in the number of posts in the PP section looking to trade their GW for PP models. I mean, yes, people are putting up those ads, but not in any greater numbers than I'm used to seeing.

Is it that rather than trying to trade their GW minis that they're just trying to sell them and get out of gaming? (Or use the money to buy new PP/Infinity/Malifaux/FOW minis?) Or am I missing something here?

You are completely in your right to think what you want to, but your missing the point.

Fact- They have, in the past had a regulated, and steady sale of models to new and incoming players, with the change in price and material, that increase will come to a halt.

Fact- People will continue gaming. They will either vote with thier feet, change what game they play, branch out, or suck the impact of the increase up and hold what they have. There is no change in income, if I had 100.00 to spend on gaming last month, it doesn't somewhere along the line change to that I have 150.00.

Fact- I still have the same amount of money, now it pushes me away from GW to try new systems that have cheaper models. One of the big pluses about GW is that they have a past that they fall back on continually to propogate the idea that they are untouchable. The history isn't as bright eyed, and the idea of untouchable is false.

People are going to either branch out, or they play with smaller armies, or they increase in a slower rate. PROBLEM area comes in introducing new players, and continuing the influx of new gamers. This is the point of contention.70.00- 80.00- 100.00- 115.00-120.00...... the point of departure is going to be different for everyone, but eventually, after geting shafted enough, people are going to leave. ESPECIALLY after the crap that GW pulled over the last two weeks.

As to judging that by the sales of second hand? You really can't because people are still in WTF mode and trying to come to grips with Big Brother telling you to OBEY. CONSUME. SUBMIT. LOVE BIG BROTHER...

As to the Vet gamers? They already have thier minds made up. You arn't going to pee on thier heads and tell them it's raining. Mind you that most of us vets have been around since RT, Second Edition, and the glory days, so we really honestly do not need to buy more, can drop a squad, army, or system on the market, and turn around and put cash made on any other system, so you really can't use second hand sales to gauge current and future development.

Death By Monkeys wrote:Is it that rather than trying to trade their GW minis that they're just trying to sell them and get out of gaming? (Or use the money to buy new PP/Infinity/Malifaux/FOW minis?) Or am I missing something here?

I think what you're missing is that as price continues to increase, the secondary market is going to see more activity, not less, as hopefuls try to flesh out their collections with used/unwanted bits from other collectors, probably acquired at a substantial discount to the retail price. This is probably a shorter-term phenomena, as eventually the people with inventory will run out and those searching will either grow impatient and buy new retail or give up and find some substitution.

Just because people aren't cashing out doesn't mean that they are going to continue to shovel money towards GW. My last purchase of anything GW at retail was a Baal Predator when they first came out. Since then, no new codexes, no new models, heck, I haven't even needed to buy any paints yet either.

Normally, I would pick up the new codex, and at least some models from the release and possibly start a small army of them. I haven't had any 'impulse' buys since the BA came out. The hobby is just getting too expensive to buy impulsively. (and this is from the guy that dropped probably close to $4000 on Apocalypse related stuff, including buying the Deathwing deal that they had at the time)

Been looking at dipping my toe into a new system or two, leaning towards Firestorm Armada, but may be swayed by watching some other games at my FLGS into buying into a few more.

The price changes have made me reconsider getting a GK Henchmen army. I'm putting that project on hold in favor of fleshing out my IG a bit more. For the rest of the year, I will still stick with 40K but only to add models to my wife and daughter's armies (Tau and Necrons) so that we can all play decent 2000 point lists. WHFB is dead to me since 8th edition, even with the dandy new Orc and Goblins army book. I'll just play Mordheim for my sword and sorcery fix.

I agree with SourClams about the trade sites likely seeing an increase in activity. I know that I'll continue to use trading/second hand purchases to acquire as many of the models I need.

I'm also moving so I won't have FLGS to support in my new location. Ebay and Maelstrom will likely be my main source for models I can't get from BarterTown or the Swap Shop.

GW will only get purchases from me for direct only merchandise.

Yeah, there's no increase of ads really, because the vast majority of the people that cry fowl and want the internets to know that they're upsetted and gonna quit buying, actually never quit and in fact keep on shelling out more and more.. we're all addicted to army men.

I have noticed more models available cheaper. B-town is the only way I buy GW products anymore. I can get them for a reasonable price and it seems thiers more availability every time GW does a price increase. I would never play thier games if I had to pay full retail these days. I then can afford to pay full retail for PP games this way also. Still need 2 chaos Rhino's and 4 oblits on the cheap if anyone is looking to dump some PM me.

why would you sell your army before it sees a scheduled price increase..... stock brokers would kill for a trading tip like this. the people who are selling now are probably need cash, or are idiots who havent thought ahead. i wouldnt be surprised if the number of people selling armies decreased.

It's actually smart to sell before a new release because more than half the time the old models become obsolete because of new designes. Just look at the Necron rumors.

if i were inclined to sell my miniatures, the only models i would sell without hesitation right now are the metal characters i own, as they are practically guaranteed to get released as finecast, in which case no one would buy metal unless they were free. as far as selling a necron/wh/tau/whatever army before it gets replaced, i would do that after next week when the models are more expensive.

I'm keeping my orks. They're bags on fun to play, even if they have a hard time beating the latest crop of power armour in boxes..

My Necrons... I'm going to get the new codex, read it thoroughly (as much without bias towards the author as possible) and try a few games, proxying as necessary. If i don't like the new playstyle/rules they're on the auction block

My dark eldar are up in the air right now, depending on how well i like the coven stuff and how much money i can get together.

WUWU wrote:About 99% of Dakka is geared towards GW enthusiasts, so it's not surprising that most of the Ads are for GW systems.

I don't know, WUWU - I wouldn't say that 99% of Dakka is geared towards GW (although if LegoBurner wants to step in with some numbers on post volume, I wouldn't argue), but I would also say that Bartertown is also substantially geared towards GW - maybe not quite as much as Dakka, but I'd say it's not far behind. Have you really seen that much more activity for other games? I don't monitor Bartertown as closely as I used to, so maybe I'm wrong on this, though.

Morathi's Darkest Sin wrote:I have just jumped into Infinity though, £150 to get me into the game. Going on the fact I have already put my fourteen figs together, based and begun painting them in around 24hrs, a record for me.

Out of curiosity, did that £150 include the cost of the rulebook? I'm hoping so - because the math on that for 14 models makes GW's prices look good. I'm not trying to argue a point - but it does get me wondering about the actual comparability of cost for entry into different games...that's a subject for a different post, though.

Grot 6 wrote:You are completely in your right to think what you want to, but your missing the point.

Fact- They have, in the past had a regulated, and steady sale of models to new and incoming players, with the change in price and material, that increase will come to a halt.

Fact- People will continue gaming. They will either vote with thier feet, change what game they play, branch out, or suck the impact of the increase up and hold what they have. There is no change in income, if I had 100.00 to spend on gaming last month, it doesn't somewhere along the line change to that I have 150.00.

Fact- I still have the same amount of money, now it pushes me away from GW to try new systems that have cheaper models. One of the big pluses about GW is that they have a past that they fall back on continually to propogate the idea that they are untouchable. The history isn't as bright eyed, and the idea of untouchable is false.

Actually, I don't think I'm missing the point at all. What you're saying is that people will keep gaming and it's just a matter of how people are allocating their resources. Different people will allocate their resources differently.

You and Sourclams have hit on what I'm trying get at, though - although you both seem to have different takes on the issue. You're saying that the effects of GW's actions won't hit the secondary market for awhile because people are trying to come to grips with what's happening. I'll address Sourclams' take on it separately below. In general, I agree with you on the points about veteran gamers having enough resources to do what they want with what game systems they want. But by what you appear to be saying, it sounds like that you don't believe that you can look at the secondary markets to find trends among gamers. IMO, the secondary markets on places like Dakka and Bartertown are very reactionary to rumors about the game. Folks hear that GKs are coming out in 6 months and you start seeing more ads from people wanting GKs, and consequently, you see people offering GKs placing greater value on them. Similar with Necrons - rumors of a Necron release mean more ads for Necrons on the secondary market. That generally keeps up until the Codex is released and the blogosphere renders judgment on whether the codex is crap or not. If it is, then you see more folks dumping their armies. It's not that different from the stock market. I do agree that this will continue to have repercussions farther down the line in the secondary markets, but I think that, in general, the secondary markets are pretty sensitive to what gets said on the blogs and forums.

sourclams wrote:I think what you're missing is that as price continues to increase, the secondary market is going to see more activity, not less, as hopefuls try to flesh out their collections with used/unwanted bits from other collectors, probably acquired at a substantial discount to the retail price. This is probably a shorter-term phenomena, as eventually the people with inventory will run out and those searching will either grow impatient and buy new retail or give up and find some substitution.

See, now that's an interesting point. I don't necessarily think that it will be short-term, though, as the people who buy new retail (may) eventually put that model on the secondary market. So the inventory just keeps getting refreshed from people buying retail and then putting it onto the secondary market (either as a used model or still NIB).

I personally traded out all my daemon stuff so I could both focus on my CSM and on playing 40k exclusively.

GW won't see any money directly from me for a long while.

Well, about 3 days ago I put up some Warhammer Dwarfs, Vampire Counts and all of my Man O' War minis. I don't plan on getting out of Warhammer (yet), and still have 4 suitable forces for it. The same goes for 40K, considering selling off Eldar, but not there yet. I'll still play Blood Bowl, but my Necromunda gangs may get sold off. As for what I want with them: cash to put into other gaming systems.

Much like a lot of other people, when I say I am done with Games Workshop, I mean to say I am done supporting them with my cash. I know of no rule that says I have to quit playing the games if I'm no longer buying minis/paints/army books, so I'll continue to get in the odd game or two. In the meantime, I'm a Henchman for Malifaux, and my sort of local store is picking up on that, Infinity, Dystopian Wars, and I still may have a serious look at Warmachine/Hordes. So really, the Swap Shop and Bartertown could be alive with people wanting to trade to bolster their forces rather than having to spend money on any more GW product...

-Vilegrimm

Dshrike wrote:GW minis are still valuable. You can still play 40k with them. From what I can tell, the general consensus is that there are a sizable number of people who are not going to be buying anymore (or only a very limited amount) of minis from GW anymore.

They may love 40k, but hate GW. My last purchase from Gw was well over a year ago, and I've only spent about 100 dollars from 2004 to now. I still play 40k though, and you're not going to see me trading off the minis I worked hard on converting and painting.

Exactly. If anything the swap and ebay market for GW stuff should go up as people stop buying new from GW and look to used or old stock from retailers.

If you want to see how good GW plc are at loosing customers and alienating people, just look at thier financial reports...

Prices up, sales volumes down, for the 6th year running.

Death By Monkeys wrote:
Out of curiosity, did that £150 include the cost of the rulebook? I'm hoping so - because the math on that for 14 models makes GW's prices look good. I'm not trying to argue a point - but it does get me wondering about the actual comparability of cost for entry into different games...that's a subject for a different post, though.

That was the main rulebook and twenty eight models, 14 Nomads for me, and 14 Haqqislam for Aurelia.

I think we should all be buying, I think I could make a nice profit on some LRs I bought a couple of months ago

who knows in another year they may go up another 20% pretty good ROI

Morathi's Darkest Sin wrote:That was the main rulebook and twenty eight models, 14 Nomads for me, and 14 Haqqislam for Aurelia.

Okay - pretty solid deal, then!

People will still have 40k and such no doubt. If you look at the swap shop area or on bartertown - maybe instead of looking at the 'type' of dealings that are aoccuring but more rather on the volume.

with the price increases people will still WANT to play 40k no doubt, but the amount of trades could potentially have increased making these trade venues rather more popular as people want to buy stuff for cheaper or trade just to maintain the game?