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Hello,

these days I wondered how to use the Eldar Farseer's Guide and Doom best and did a little mathhammer to back up my thoughts. So I calculated the probability for the single rools, then the probability if you get a reroll and then the improvement the reroll gives you. This is the table:

Roll for - Single roll - with reroll - Improvement in p.p. - Improvement in percent
6+ - 16,67% - 30,56% - 13,89 p.p. - 83,32%
5+ - 33,33% - 55,56% - 22,22 p.p. - 66,70%
4+ - 50,00% - 75,00% - 25,00 p.p. - 50,00%
3+ - 66,67% - 88,89% - 22,22 p.p. - 33,33%
2+ - 83,33% - 97,22% - 13,89 p.p. - 16,67%

So what we see is that you get the best out of your single doom or guide cast if you cast it on a unit with BS 3 or on a unit which has weapons that will wound the target at 4+. Of course in some situations you will still want to guide or doom a unit where the improvement is not the decisive factor... like when you really really want that single character model to hit with its evul mega power force weapon.

So what do you guys think about this, how do you decide what to target with Guide or Doom?

Btw, the same table goes for Fortune as well since your saving throws just work the same.

Regards
Murenius

Murenius wrote:Roll for - Single roll - with reroll - Improvement
6+ - 16,67% - 30,56% - 13,89 p.p.
5+ - 33,33% - 55,56% - 22,22 p.p.
4+ - 50,00% - 75,00% - 25,00 p.p.
3+ - 66,67% - 88,89% - 22,22 p.p.
2+ - 83,33% - 97,22% - 13,89 p.p.

Instead of showing the percentage point improvment, showing the percentage of improvment over the base chance is more useful.

For example, when shooting at T4, a weapon is 50% more effective when the target is domed. When shooting at a T6 target, the weapon is ~80% more effective. That's really where its you see the improvement. From the chart above, it almost looks like doom as is useful when shooting at T2 as T6, which is far from the truth.

labmouse42 wrote:Instead of showing the percentage point improvment, showing the percentage of improvment over the base chance is more useful.

For example, when shooting at T4, a weapon is 50% more effective when the target is domed. When shooting at a T6 target, the weapon is ~80% more effective. That's really where its you see the improvement. From the chart above, it almost looks like doom as is useful when shooting at T2 as T6, which is far from the truth.

Of course you are right. I edited to table to include the improvement in percent. This way it allows you better to judge what trade off is the best for your situation. Of course the percental increase with a 6+ roll is a whopping 83%, but you will still miss in 7 out of 10 shots, so I wouldn't do that except in really special situations.

guide warwalkers for lots of pewpewpew

I agree with doomthumbs, though I think his statement could be construed as excessively succinct.

The point is not necessarily to put doom/guide/fortune where it improves individual rolls the most, but where it improves the most individual rolls.

That is why doom is considered so valuable when used in conjunction with Banshees, why guiding warwalkers is so much fun, and why fortune is best used on avatars and jetseers.

Doom targets that will recieve many hits.

Guide units that get many shots.

Fortune units that will recieve many hits and will still get their save versus those hits.



Barring that? Guide your Pathfinders. Rerolling a hit to turn it into an AP 1 hit is just funny.

Could the table could have another column, listing the improvement Fortune gives?
For 6+, the improvement is nearly twice the chance to succeed.
For 2+, it's hardly worth the effort.

Skinnereal wrote:Could the table could have another column, listing the improvement Fortune gives?
For 6+, the improvement is nearly twice the chance to succeed.
For 2+, it's hardly worth the effort.

For Fortune it's exactly the same, the table only shows how a reroll influences probabilities for hitting 2+ to 6+. Or did I misunderstand the question?

Nope, the Improvement in % is what I was after.
It clearly shows that Fortune used on a 6+ unit is far more useful then on a unit with 2+.
Using Fortune is always handy, but the benefit to some units are more pronounced.

Sure, your fortuned 6+ saving throw unit will have an improvement of 83,32%. But still it will just die with a 70% chance, which could mean that fortune was wasted. As always it's a trade off.