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I was just running some numbers for successful Zagstruk Deep Strike Assault given average 7" drift, and I calculated a non-intuitive mathematical peculiarity. The hard part was deciding the limits, so I went with regular triangle formulas. With 16 models, including Zagstruck, I can place the first model at 2" away from the target, create one whole 1" ring of bases around the first, and a partial ring on the opposite side, giving me a 2" limit of 'closeness'. The 'farthest' limit is the 6" Assault range, 1 whole and 1 partial 1" model rings around the first (to geometrically 'stretch' the Stormboyz towards the target), for 8", plus D6 for running. The D6 was a little funny, but discreet, so I included the automatic successful roll of 1" with the original 8". I then multiplied each value by the probability of attaining that value, 5 of 6 chances to get 2", 4 of 3 to get 3", etc., added the results, and divided by 5, the number of tests performed, for an average of 1.83". This gives the second limit of the average successful 'farthest' drift from the target to be 10.83". Then I calculated the angles for successful and unsuccessful drift, subtracting the unsuccessful 'closeness' angle from the successful 'farthest' angle, and dividing the result by 180*. Then I added the chance of a Successful Assault if there is no drift. The surprising result of this was not the peak at 6" initial placement, but another, HIGHER peak at 3".

Once I thought about this, it does make sense that the successful drift area increases the closer the origin gets to the target. Imagine one whole circle (Drift range) overlapping another circle (Assault Range), while subtracting the forbidden Mishap incurring pie slice out of the Drift Circle. Apparently there are two peaks of overlap, or my measurement of "success", when the origins of the Drift circle and the Assault circle are 3" and 6" apart, with the 3" being an astounding 76% chance to successfully make an assault. Of course the chance to Misphap increases, but I am sure that the survival rate of Deep Striking Stormboyz that do not get to assault when they arrive is much worse.

This is by no means a complete analysis of the situation, but i do believe that further models will follow this pattern.

2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Initial Placement from Target
73.4 64.62 55.15 44.42 15 16 13 0 0 0 0 Angle of Unsuccessful 7 " Drift
180 180 160 130 110 102 92 84 77 70 63 Angle of Successful 7 " Drift

39% 43% 39% 32% 35% 32% 29% 31% 29% 26% 23% Chance of Successful Assault Given 7" Drift
33% 33% 33% 33% 33% 33% 33% 28% 22% 17% 11% Chance of Successful Assault Given No Drift
73% 76% 72% 65% 69% 65% 63% 59% 51% 43% 34% Total Chance of Successful Assault


EDIT: Here is a link to the picture I used. I calculated the 'farthest' angle B for length Y 10.83", minus the 'closest' angle A for length Z=2", for discreet X values {2,3,...,11,12}.

http://flic.kr/p/aU3vHV

So, what you think?

You may wish to make a diagram. I understood what you posted, but it was somewhat difficult to follow at first.
What shape did you use for the target unit?

If any one is interested, the calculations for Deep Striking and Assaulting without using the Waaagh!, peaks out at 6 and 56%.

2 3 4 5 6 7 8
110 98 89 82 76 70 64
73 65 55 44 15 16 13

14% 12% 13% 14% 23% 20% 19%
33% 33% 33% 33% 33% 33% 33%
47% 46% 46% 47% 56% 53% 52%

stormboyz don't benefit from Waaagh!

AAAAAHHHHHRRRRRRRGGGGGHHHHHH! MY WHOLE AFTERNOON WASTED ON A FALSE PREMISE!

I think i love this thread...

Nice try Ghengis...so what is the ideal target DS position from an enemy unit to get into assault without being able to Fleet?

Ghenghis Jon wrote:If any one is interested, the calculations for Deep Striking and Assaulting without using the Waaagh!, peaks out at 6 and 56%.

2 3 4 5 6 7 8
110 98 89 82 76 70 64
73 65 55 44 15 16 13

14% 12% 13% 14% 23% 20% 19%
33% 33% 33% 33% 33% 33% 33%
47% 46% 46% 47% 56% 53% 52%

Ah, I missed that. Well thanks for getting a probability done for it, appreciate it.

That's actually one for the book of Mork&Gorks wisdom: While 6" being the optimal distance isn't that surprising, a 56% chance isn't as bad as I assumed. I guess it's time to look for a metal Zagstrukk on ebay now.