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See my thread title. I feel if GW keeps updating the named Chapters, then there will be less and less players playing just the good ol' Codex: Space Marines, and everyone will start playing their army "count-as" style.

They may aswell just scrap the Vanilla Marine codex already.

No more so than they have already. In other words, no, the codex will still be pretty popular. It's never been a super popular tournament army, but it will always have a strong presence.

Only to the extend that SW, BA and GK have already done.

Meaning its tournament presence will be limited, but a lot of people will still be playing them in the real world.