Presidential race poll thread

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**Relapse**

I thought it might be interesting for latest polls on who is ahead for the presidency. Figures for what groups favor a candidate would also be interesting to have up here.

According to this group, Romney's ahead by a few points:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

Gallup has Obama up by a point:

http://www.gallup.com/poll/election.aspx

Here are some polls from multiple news services. According to all, it's a tight race this year.

http://www.politico.com/p/2012-election/polls/president

**Melissia**

Rasmussen has a rather poor record. Perhaps something else as the second example?

**Frazzled**

Here's an excellent link:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html

**Jihadin**

Gallup under fire to from the DoJ on their polling technique

**AustonT**

DoJ under fire for thier investigation techniques.

I put absolutely no faith in polls.

**daedalus-templarius**

Not to be mean or anything, but why would I look at this thread when I could go to http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/ ?

Far more accurate with a prodigious amount more data, enough data to cancel out the noise of individual polls.

**Relapse**

daedalus-templarius wrote:
Not to be mean or anything, but why would I look at this thread when I could go to http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/ ?

Far more accurate with a prodigious amount more data, enough data to cancel out the noise of individual polls.

For the discussion. By the way, thanks for the link. The more the merrier.

**Frazzled**

Sorry I wouldn't trust Pravda, er the NY Times, to tell me the sky is blue.

**daedalus-templarius**

Frazzled wrote:
Sorry I wouldn't trust Pravda, er the NY Times, to tell me the sky is blue.

The guy who runs it used to weight data for baseball.

But I wouldn't expect you to trust anything in the first place, first hand experience for trolls or bust.

**Relapse**

Melissia wrote:
Rasmussen has a rather poor record. Perhaps something else as the second example?

Any links we can get in that all or at least most agree to are welcome. I just thought it would be good to get the ball rolling. I just added a new poll to the OP.

**Frazzled**

daedalus-templarius wrote:
Frazzled wrote:
Sorry I wouldn't trust Pravda, er the NY Times, to tell me the sky is blue.

The guy who runs it used to weight data for baseball.

.

SO?

The RCP compilation has a nice sampling of most major polling.

**aosol**

Current gambling odds have it:

2/5 Obama
7/4 Romney

http://sports.coral.co.uk/sport/en/drilldown/type/1634/2012-Presidential-Election

**whembly**

Or Intrade:
http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=743474
Currently at 58.9% for reelected Obama...

**Easy E**

Frazzled wrote:
Sorry I wouldn't trust Pravda, er the NY Times, to tell me the sky is blue.

Maybe I wouldn't trust Pravda, but I would trust 538. He has a track record of success and amalgamates poll numbers instead of just using one source.

**Frazzled**

Easy E wrote:
Frazzled wrote:
Sorry I wouldn't trust Pravda, er the NY Times, to tell me the sky is blue.

Maybe I wouldn't trust Pravda, but I would trust 538. He has a track record of success and amalgamates poll numbers instead of just using one source.

You may be right. Thats beginning to sound more like RCP than I had realized.

**Mannahnin**

Fivethirtyeight is my favored site. They had really good analysis last time around too, and IIRC predicted very close to the final result.

**Easy E**

I would say that the Presidential race is already over barring some big course changing event like an attack, natural disaster, Euro collapse, etc.

The interesting thing will be the Senate races. 8 seats are in play at least, and a swing in those eight seats will determine who controls the legislative agenda.

**Ouze**

I prefer Nate Silver/538 and the RCP average, myself. I tend to avoid Rasmussen & PPP individually as both have shown bias (in different directions) to the point their results are seriously untrustworthy.

My personal feeling is that, all things being equal and barring some unexpected event, some unknown unknown, Obama will be re-elected but it's going to be super, super close, only a few points at best. Still too early to really call it though.

**whembly**

Sorta on topic:
http://washingtonexaminer.com/york-romneys-message-to-obama-voters-he-let-you-down/article/2507252#.UEoffrKPV2A
to wit:

The situation facing Romney is hard for some Republicans to comprehend. They didn’t buy Obama’s bill of goods in the first place and find it hard to sympathize with anyone who did. But there are millions of people who voted for Obama who are not only disappointed in him but have come to the conclusion that he does not deserve to be re-elected. The problem for Romney is they might still be persuaded to vote for the president. Making them comfortable with the idea of leaving Obama is Romney’s job.

Romney campaign advisers are very familiar with the type. They do polling, they do focus groups and they see the phenomenon everywhere. Says campaign pollster Neil Newhouse: “These voters are my mother-in-law. She’s a soft Republican and voted with pride for Barack Obama in terms of what it meant for the country. And now, every time she talks to me, she’s more than disappointed. She’s frustrated. She’s upset. She thought she was voting for a transformational leader and feels like we got just another politician.” You can bet Newhouse and the Romney campaign are not basing their strategy on one mother-in-law. They’re undoubtedly seeing the same thing all the time in their research.

**Shadowseer_Kim**

I think I would put more stock in the bookies odds, than the "polls" calling up a 1000 idio.., er I mean people who may or may nopt even vote in the elections.

**Easy E**

Ouze wrote:
I prefer Nate Silver/538 and the RCP average, myself. I tend to avoid Rasmussen & PPP individually as both have shown bias (in different directions) to the point their results are seriously untrustworthy.

My personal feeling is that, all things being equal and barring some unexpected event, some unknown unknown, Obama will be re-elected but it's going to be super, super close, only a few points at best. Still too early to really call it though.

I think the popular vote will be close, but hte electoral college will be a large difference in Obama's favor. That is the nature of it.