Tough Tyrant Guard
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First off, not a chaos players, so take any suggestions with a grain of salt.
So, I tried playing against your list (proxy) Had to make a couple of assumptions to round out the points total and such. Put the three squads in rhinos, had 30 cultists with no marks, three flamers, and I think that was it.
My army is a spore army, only three units out first turn, and the mawloc burrows my first turn. Five monstrous creatures, doom, and a bunch of zoats come in turn two.
Set them up pretty similar to the way you suggested, sent the melta and plasma squad, also sent the other plasma squad as my tyranids have a number of monstrous creatures to overcome. First turn had a whole lot of nothing going on, night fighting gave my mawloc a 2+ invul save behind his ruins. Turn one for me was a lot of shuffling and, spawned termagants were able to glance a rhino to death due to adrenal glands from the tervignon.
Knowing that you had deep striking terminators and spawn, I had my set up back towards a corner, with minimal space for them to land. The spawn in an attempt to make an anvil and be a viable threat, scattered into another unit and were placed in as far away a corner as I could muster. The terminators scattered just outside of template and melta range of anything, so they ended up firing a whole lot of bolters at a tervignon. Forge fiends I had march up near mid board with their backs to an impassable building. Obliterators landed in a good spot, also focusing on the tervignon. One plasma squad was out, so the meltas joined in to fire at the tervignon, as did the second plasma squad from within their rhino. (Heldrake didn't come in.)
End result was three wounds got placed on the tervignon, (he was in ruins cover, and both meltas rolled a one to hit.) forge fiends were very underwhelming. bs 3 with 8 shots, ends up often fewer hits then twin linked 4. (eldar war walker experience.) strength told me they were best used against the big creatures, but only ap4 meant I got full armor saves. (They couldn't see the biovores, or I would have shot at them. One plasma marine squad shot pistols and then assaulted the 12 gaunts and wiped them out.
Tyranid turn two when all the reinforcements arrived, Mawloc scattered very little, so hit all the terminators, and ate three. Devil gaunts and a spore killed one more and put a wound on the sorcerer. Dakkafex and flyrant killed a forge fiend, zoats and doom ate all but two regular marines in the melta squad. One plasma and two regular guys in the exposed plasma squad. My outflanking tervignon came out next to the cultists and killed a couple with spines and such. Doom's str ten ap1 blast hit the obliterators and ID'd them all.
So my first take is that the marines and their rhinos are really squishy. The low leadership value they have made them prime targets for the doom of malantai, and the vehicles broke apart so quickly they were exposed by his shooting phase. Terminators are great and all, but the deep strike bunching just screams for an ap2 blast, and there are plenty out there. Forgefiends are so expensive for a couple of hits per turn. It was four hits the first turn, three the second, and they only caused one wound. Perhaps much more effective against vehicles. (All plasma maybe? Then you have blasts instead of solid shot right?)
Turn Three: Chaos shifted around, fired a lot of ammo even with the depleted units, wounded the doom of malantai three times, couldn't get an Id on him. Terminators shot and charged him. Challenge requirement took the powerfist who had survived out of the combat. Sorcerer force sword could kill him, but he couldn't get a shot through. Heldrake came in and vector strike whacked the carnifex in once, then shot at the doom, but only hit once, and didn't get through the invul. (I think the bale flammer works better for them.) Spawn move crazy fast! However it is key to keep them in cover since they have no save. Might be worth it to deep strike them into cover on purpose if you keep them. Cultists shot and charged the tervignon. That's a lot of shots, and a lot of hand to hand hits, better then the zombies. (They had pistols.) Caused three wounds on the tervignon. My small squad of zoats was wiped by the guys small squad with one plasma gun left. Two remaining guys in the middle shot the flyrant and managed to ground him, causing a wound. Empty rhino that survived rammed a spore killing it.
Tyranids ate the remaining chaos marines in troop form. One ran away on the left, two in the middle ran, all the others dead. Tyranids just had too much fire power. Mawloc joined in the combat with the terminators, squashed the power fist guy. Doom and sorcerer do nothing to each other. Last fiend is shot to death. Flyrant takes out two spawn, and outflanking tervignon now with termagant support, breaks the cultists.
Called it since there were no troops alive left on the board in an objective game.
Final thoughts. Heldrake with it's vector strike, and I imagine the baleflammer is great for the cost. I shot it with the dakkafex, only to have it recover two of the three hull points I had taken off. Forgefiends still couldn't manage anything. With so few units in the army, it really effected the ability to take on all the units and creatures the tyranids dropped in. I feel like any many unit army you came up against would really challenge this army. Some good quality, but just not enough quantity. I feel like the defiler might have managed more damage then the two forgefiends, and that would have even used less points. Cultists seem great, although they might have needed a touch more support. It felt tough to put less effort on that side of the table though with how few units there were going to the far side. Not sure how the points would work out, but dropping the forgefiends for obliterators/a defiler, and maybe another heldrake if you can squeeze it in? The sorcerer helped make his terminator squad near immune to psychic attacks, I couldn't fire any of my zoats or the doom at them because of their 4+ deny the witch. Perhaps they would have been better running out of deep strike instead of firing bolters.
Best of luck with your fun new codex.
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500 PTS
1850 PTS