USA to become worlds biggest oil producer

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**d-usa**

http://money.cnn.com/2012/11/12/news/economy/us-oil-production-energy/index.html

LONDON (CNNMoney) -- The United States will overtake Saudi Arabia to become the world's biggest oil producer before 2020, and will be energy independent 10 years later, according to a new forecast by the International Energy Agency.
.....
From 2008 to 2011, U.S. crude oil production jumped 14% -- going from 5.1 million barrels per day at the start of 2008 to nearly 5.8 million barrels per day, according to the Energy Information Administration. Natural gas is up by about 10% over the same period.

And here I remember hearing that Obama has been killing the Oil and Gas industry...

**Seaward**

d-usa wrote:
And here I remember hearing that Obama has been killing the Oil and Gas industry...

I hadn't heard that one.

I have heard that he's throwing a lot of good taxpayer money after bad over in the solar sector, though.

**d-usa**

Romney argued in the 2nd debate that oil production is down if I recall correctly. And folks in Oklahoma claim that be is killing natural gas, even though our rig counts are up.

**Relapse**

There is this:

http://intelligencepress.com/features/bakerhughes/

**d-usa**

Yet production is up, so don't let that distract from your argument. Good example of the picture people have been trying to paint:

http://m.yahoo.com/w/legobpengine/news/presidential-debate-101-oil-drilling-spat-did-obama-235930810.html?orig_host_hdr=news.yahoo.com&.intl=US&.lang=en-US

**Relapse**

A lot just depends on supply and demand also. I've worked in an industry related business for almost 20 years and have seen a lot of ups and downs. The two scariest times were around 1998 and a couple of years ago in 2009.

**Huffy**

By 2020 the game will have completely changed as well in terms of who's producing as well as what new techs have come out that could increase our oil production or reduce consumption.

I dont really trust long term forecasts

**Relapse**

Huffy wrote:
By 2020 the game will have completely changed as well in terms of who's producing as well as what new techs have come out that could increase our oil production or reduce consumption.

I dont really trust long term forecasts

One thing I've learned in 20 years is that even year to year forcasts when it comes to the oil industry are dicey.

**TheHammer**

This is getting hilarious, you guys! Hilarious!

Remember during the election when polls were coming out predicting a huge Obama win and those on the right would point to other things that weren't polls to show that Obama was doomed? Their whole argument was that if we ignored all these pesky polls and instead looked at party identification or voter turn out or something that we could then get to the reality of the situation.

We're now experiencing that here. People point to how oil and gas production as increased over the last few years and that we're set to have even greater increases in the future, but now those on the right are pointing to these other things to prove that these objective numbers might be wrong. Or something. Something bad for Obama and totally dealing in reality. Or something.

**KalashnikovMarine**

Blocking the Canadian pipeline is a bit of a black mark imho at least it was last I've heard that it was still blocked, any one know if that's changed?

**d-usa**

They are building the portion that connects the huge infrastructure in Oklahoma to the refineries and ports in Texas.

The portion connecting Canada to Oklahoma is thankfully still blocked.

**KalashnikovMarine**

d-usa wrote:
They are building the portion that connects the huge infrastructure in Oklahoma to the refineries and ports in Texas.

The portion connecting Canada to Oklahoma is thankfully still blocked.

You and I clearly have different definitions of things to be thankful for chief.

On a side note, what the US really should do is hop on Thorium reactors. That's the real ticket going forward.

**d-usa**

KalashnikovMarine wrote:
d-usa wrote:
They are building the portion that connects the huge infrastructure in Oklahoma to the refineries and ports in Texas.

The portion connecting Canada to Oklahoma is thankfully still blocked.

You and I clearly have different definitions of things to be thankful for chief.

We do, but that would be a whole different thread.

**Huffy**

TheHammer wrote:
This is getting hilarious, you guys! Hilarious!

Remember during the election when polls were coming out predicting a huge Obama win and those on the right would point to other things that weren't polls to show that Obama was doomed? Their whole argument was that if we ignored all these pesky polls and instead looked at party identification or voter turn out or something that we could then get to the reality of the situation.

We're now experiencing that here. People point to how oil and gas production as increased over the last few years and that we're set to have even greater increases in the future, but now those on the right are pointing to these other things to prove that these objective numbers might be wrong. Or something. Something bad for Obama and totally dealing in reality. Or something.

I'm fairly left wing and I voted for obama, I just know that making industry predictions for 8 years down the line is really stupid; even more so in an industry based on a natural resource.

**d-usa**

Well. my main interest in this story was this:

From 2008 to 2011, U.S. crude oil production jumped 14% -- going from 5.1 million barrels per day at the start of 2008 to nearly 5.8 million barrels per day, according to the Energy Information Administration. Natural gas is up by about 10% over the same period.

Considering the claims that he has done nothing but hold the energy industry back and caused production to drop.

**whembly**

d-usa wrote:
Well. my main interest in this story was this:

From 2008 to 2011, U.S. crude oil production jumped 14% -- going from 5.1 million barrels per day at the start of 2008 to nearly 5.8 million barrels per day, according to the Energy Information Administration. Natural gas is up by about 10% over the same period.

Considering the claims that he has done nothing but hold the energy industry back and caused production to drop.

The issue isn't "hey, we're leading the world in production".

The issue is that we're not taking advantage of the resources on public land as we should. (most of those increases came from private lands)

But, it's much more complicated than that (not the simplistic argument that Romney was advocating) that factors into the cost of fuel here.

One easy way to make gas cheaper, is to mandate 3 or 4 formula in the US, instead of letting the states determine the blend, which the refineries has to account for on state-by-state basis. Caveat... I don't know if even then that would drive down the cost. *shrugs*

But, then... I'd be accused of a Statist...

**Mannahnin**

But SHOULD we really be making more use of public lands? Do we really need to, when with the increases on private land, we're already ramping production way up?

**whembly**

Mannahnin wrote:
But SHOULD we really be making more use of public lands? Do we really need to, when with the increases on private land, we're already ramping production way up?

That's a debate we should be having... right?

Right now, supply really isn't the issue... right?

But... what happens if it does? Look at the gas prices right now... it wouldn't take much to spike it up.

It's call hedging your bet.

But, then again, I'm not in the oil business so, I'm shooting from my hips here...

**Mannahnin**

I rather doubt that increasing production would substantially reduce prices; other countries have a lot of demand as well, and "our" oil companies haven't been inclined to reduce prices in general, despite record profits in recent years.

Our best bet (IMO) is to invest in alternative energy sources, and require higher gas mileage on new vehicles. Just use less of the damn oil.

**Relapse**

whembly wrote:
Mannahnin wrote:
But SHOULD we really be making more use of public lands? Do we really need to, when with the increases on private land, we're already ramping production way up?

That's a debate we should be having... right?

Right now, supply really isn't the issue... right?

But... what happens if it does? Look at the gas prices right now... it wouldn't take much to spike it up.

It's call hedging your bet.

But, then again, I'm not in the oil business so, I'm shooting from my hips here...

A lot of wells get drilled then capped for later use when needed. The Saudi fields might be proving in the next ten years that they don't have as much oil left as people think. If that is the case, Russia and China could be stepping in unless the U.S. Has something in place by then, although SA is looking like it can churn out at a good rate.
A lot depends on the world political landscape and what a country wants. I've seen the price of Titanium double overnight because of China. They could do the same with oil if they controlled it

**Huffy**

Relapse wrote:
whembly wrote:
Mannahnin wrote:
But SHOULD we really be making more use of public lands? Do we really need to, when with the increases on private land, we're already ramping production way up?

That's a debate we should be having... right?

Right now, supply really isn't the issue... right?

But... what happens if it does? Look at the gas prices right now... it wouldn't take much to spike it up.

It's call hedging your bet.

But, then again, I'm not in the oil business so, I'm shooting from my hips here...

A lot of wells get drilled then capped for later use when needed. The Saudi fields might be proving in the next ten years that they don't have as much oil left as people think. If that is the case, Russia and China could be stepping in unless the U.S. Has something in place by then, although SA is looking like it can churn out at a good rate.
A lot depends on the world political landscape and what a country wants. I've seen the price of Titanium double overnight because of China. They could do the same with oil if they controlled it

I know Russia has huge oil reserves, I wasn't aware that China possessed oil in significant quantities?

**Relapse**

Huffy wrote:
Relapse wrote:
whembly wrote:
Mannahnin wrote:
But SHOULD we really be making more use of public lands? Do we really need to, when with the increases on private land, we're already ramping production way up?

That's a debate we should be having... right?

Right now, supply really isn't the issue... right?

But... what happens if it does? Look at the gas prices right now... it wouldn't take much to spike it up.

It's call hedging your bet.

But, then again, I'm not in the oil business so, I'm shooting from my hips here...

A lot of wells get drilled then capped for later use when needed. The Saudi fields might be proving in the next ten years that they don't have as much oil left as people think. If that is the case, Russia and China could be stepping in unless the U.S. Has something in place by then, although SA is looking like it can churn out at a good rate.
A lot depends on the world political landscape and what a country wants. I've seen the price of Titanium double overnight because of China. They could do the same with oil if they controlled it

I know Russia has huge oil reserves, I wasn't aware that China possessed oil in significant quantities?

Depens on what happens here:

http://www.businessinsider.com/china-aims-to-develop-massive-reserves-in-disputed-parts-of-the-south-china-sea-2012-8

I can tell you they are working like big dogs to perfect their drilling techniques.

There is a possibility they could control a large part of that region in one way or the other in the next ten years.

**azazel the cat**

KalashnikovMarine wrote:Blocking the Canadian pipeline is a bit of a black mark imho at least it was last I've heard that it was still blocked, any one know if that's changed?

Blocked? No. Redirected West to boats to China? Yes., unfortunately. (less than 25% approval rating in BC regarding the Northern Gateway Pipeline Project)

Everyone except China wants that pipe pointing South, rather than East. (technically, West, but ya know what I mean.)

**whembly**

azazel the cat wrote:
KalashnikovMarine wrote:Blocking the Canadian pipeline is a bit of a black mark imho at least it was last I've heard that it was still blocked, any one know if that's changed?

Blocked? No. Redirected West to boats to China? Yes., unfortunately. (less than 25% approval rating in BC regarding the Northern Gateway Pipeline Project)

Everyone except China wants that pipe pointing South, rather than East. (technically, West, but ya know what I mean.)

Well... oil industry is looking for workers... how does the worker's permit work in Canada?
http://www.ktuu.com/news/la-fi-canada-recruit-20121111,0,4310208.story
excerpt:

U.S. workers, Canada wants you.

Here in the western province of Alberta, energy companies are racing to tap the region’s vast deposits of oil sands. Canada is looking to double production by the end of the decade. To do so it will have to lure more workers — tens of thousands of them — to this cold and sparsely populated place. The weak U.S. recovery is giving them a big assist.

Canadian employers are swarming U.S. job fairs, advertising on radio and YouTube and using headhunters to lure out-of-work Americans north. California, with its 10.2% unemployment rate, has become a prime target. Canadian recruiters are headed to a job fair in the Coachella Valley next month to woo construction workers idled by the housing meltdown.

The Great White North might seem a tough sell with winter coming on. But the Canadians have honed their sales pitch: free universal healthcare, good pay, quality schools, retention bonuses and steady work.

“California has a lot of workers and we hope they come up,” said Mike Wo, executive director of the Edmonton Economic Development Corp.

The U.S. isn’t the only place Canada is looking for labor. In Alberta, which is expecting a shortage of 114,000 skilled workers by 2021, provincial officials have been courting English-speaking tradespeople from Ireland, Scotland and other European nations. Immigrants from the Philippines, India and Africa have found work in services. But some employers prefer Americans because they adapt quickly, come from a similar culture and can visit their homes more easily.

**Relapse**

@Wembly,

We have a saying that goes, "Times may get bad, but the world always wakes up and drinks a cup of oil."

In the 20 years I've been in the industry, I've only seen a couple of patches that really had me worried.

**Ensis Ferrae**

Mannahnin wrote:
Just use less of the damn oil.

But then we couldn't drive out V-20 duallie pickup trucks that are lifted, with oversized muddin' tires hauling an empty horse trailer....

(for the record, I personally drive a Jetta TDI, and it's awesome, was being sarcastic in relation to all the idiots out there who needlessly drive oversized vehicles)

**InquisitorVaron**

If this was the case Dave wouldn't be chumming up with saudi.

**KalashnikovMarine**

I've been considering getting into oil work in one of the Dakotas or Canada, but I want my trademan's degree first. Then worst case I can set up a home shop as a gunsmith and work the fields during the week, do my trade on the weekend to keep my skills sharp and earn some extra scratch.

**labmouse42**

whembly wrote:
That's a debate we should be having... right?

Right now, supply really isn't the issue... right?

Don't forget, that the US is exporting that extra oil that were producing to other countries.

We are locked in contracts with Canada to continue to buy oil at a set price for Y years. Any excess oil production means we can just sell our excess off to other countries like China.

Odd as it may sound, we are buying oil from Canada and selling it to China.