Cannon shots these days are purely mechanical things, and the only judgement that's needed now we have pre-measuring is weighing the chance of sniping a character against the benefit of maximising casualties to rank and file troops. And yet people post a hell of a lot of personal opinion that directly contradicts the maths.
Anyway, here's everything you need to know about cannons;
Where you shoot depends on what you're shooting at. Firing at monsters is the easiest thing to do (and also the ideal target for cannons) - to guarantee a hit you want to put the shot 10" from the farthest corner of the of the enemy base. This means you straight up hit on 8 or 10, while rolls of 2, 4 and 6 have 3/6, 4/6 and 5/6 chances of reaching the target eventually, giving you and overall chance of hitting of 24 rolls out of the total possible of 36.
If you're shooting at a whole unit, then the issue is not just about hitting, but hitting as many ranks as possible. This means that what you're really trying to do is maximise the amount of the cannon's hit zone (the area between where the cannon shell lands and where it stops) that passes through the target unit. This means that any shells that land short of the front rank and travel into the unit have wasted those inches between the landing and reaching the front rank, and it means that shells that land in the midst of the enemy unit and then pass through it and travel out the back have wasted some of their effectiveness. So what you need to achieve is a location that maximises the number of hits inflicted overall by giving the least amount of undershoot and overshoot.
I can plot out the maths if you want (a list of the odds of the shot passing through a particular distance from the point you placed the shot, which is kind of whacky as the numbers are similar to a bell curve but not even, they rise and fall a little on the first half of the chart) but it all amounts to a basic rule - place the 10" from the centre of the enemy unit, if the enemy unit has an even number of ranks, then place it on the closer of the two centre ranks (ie if the enemy has 6 ranks, place it on the third rank, not the fourth).
The only other thing to consider is the value of sniping an enemy character, hoping he'll fail his
LoS roll. What you're doing there is weighing up the value of ensuring you hit the front rank against the value of maximising your total kills. This really depends on the threat an enemy character might have against the unit he is in. A classic example would be a massive bus of Skeletons with a Vampire at the front - aiming at the middle of that formation would mean you'll likely overshoot the Vampire, and while he'll probably make his
LoS the chance of failing is worth a lot more than ensuring you kill a couple more skeletons. In you judge the character a lot more important than the unit, aim either 10" from the front of the enemy (to give yourself the greatest chance of killing the enemy character) or 8" from the front (to increase you chance of killing the character will still giving you a decent number of expected kills).
By your system, the chance of rolling a overshooting by rolling a 10 will be 1/6, or 6 of the total 36 possible options, which are all hits when you put the shot 10" from the farthest corner. Whereas the only results that result in hits by your system but misses by putting the shot 10" from the back corner are rolls of 2 then 4, 4 then 2, or 6 then Misfire, which is 3 of the 36 possible options. Giving up 6 rolls that would have hit to gain 3 rolls that wouldn't have hit is a bad thing. It's why by your system you only score hits on 21 of the total 36 possible results, while the system of putting the shot 10" from the farthest corner you hit with 24 of the 36 possible outcomes.
Seriously, spend a couple of minutes to plot out the maths. It shouldn't take long, there's only 36 possible dice rolls. You'll see I'm right.
riverhawks32 wrote:I myself like 6 inches off of the front edge of the base, and I almost never miss.
6" from the front is mathmatically the same thing as 8" from the back, as the base (once you allow for angle to the rear corner of the target) is >2" deep. And 6" from the front (or 8" from the back) is the inferior option for all the reasons I outlined to Gray Templar above.