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I know about the many what about after the IOM-threads that I have frequently hated, but how close is the IOM to duck under from all threats? I mean they have been on the verge of doom for like forever. But how close is it to collapse?

I sort of regard the IOM the Confederacy anno 1864 or the Germans anno 1917. Close to collapse but not there yet.

Thousands of years pending massive Necrons/Tyranid shennanigans.

Yeah I wouldn't be surprised if we 50 years from now is playing Warhammer 50.000 and still see no direction of anything.

To me, it will be the fall of the Roman Empire. One day, the High Lords of terra will look out to the stars and realize that their once unified nation has fractured into independent sectors and unions.

The Imperium's death will not be a cataclysmic immolation, but a fracturing along cultural boundaries stretching out for hundreds of years.

Once the Astronomican fades away, it will be over.

If the Astronomican were to collapse it'd fall immediately and suddenly. Otherwise it's going to be a long, grueling, millennium-long process.

Cue the Ranadandra and it goes up in a ball of chaos fueled smoke; along with the Tau and Eldar.

Pretty close, the only way they survived the 13th black crusade was scraping their frontiers of all ships leaving them open to tyranid and ork invasions. Their like the germans in world war two where they could mount offensives but only by scrapping other fronts of needed troops and equipment.

As far/close as whatever the current book/model they are publishing needs it to be for "cinematic" effect.

Depends on the author of the fluff

Been on the verge of collapse since 2nd ed imho.
Its the whole grimdark, no hope thing again.

Its just food for thouhgt for fans and keeps people talking rather than any hard facts that GW have ever released.
In short: not anytime soon.

I know that tyranids lack warp travel capabilities and their most powerful engines are unable to operate "near" others objects who have strong gravitational force. Because of that, tyranids are unable to Nom Nom Imperium quickly even if there would be no opposition for them. Second, I doubt that in the future Imperium will take bulk of the beating. Tyranids more and more are being tied down by orks, necrons may begin prioritising tyranids forces. Even forces of chaos might use their 14'th black crusade on tyranids instead of Imperium. Tau and others minor races seems to be first to fall to tyranids serving as a meat shield for the Imperium. Future might in fact be not so grim for the Imperium.
Also, I'm not even sure if Imperium have grown or shrinked in M41. Solar Macharius alone have bringed more than thousands planets under the Imperium rule without any significant looses. There are no telling how many more planets was reconquered and joined Imperium, so without any solid number of how many planets Imperium have lost, we can even assume that it have grown...

The latest rulebook suggests it's still expanding as of the "present." Page 136:

"Yet by weight of its own immensity, the Imperium continues to expand, its momentum carrying it forwards, even while vast segments within its boundaries are cut off, isolated, or remain to this day wholly unexplored."

Whether that means it's going to overreach itself and fall apart, or if they're trying to dial back the hopelessness, I can't tell.

Sounds like one of the possible futures of the Universe. There the big rip meant everything just goes black.

Thousands of years away. Her borders havn't had much net shrinkage since the Heresy.

A highly decentralised Empire of a million worlds will take a very long time to collapse. At the end of the day even the loss of Terra and Mars wouldn't necessarily mean the end, at least not in the short term ( warp travel without the Astronomican is certainly possible, although much more dangerous).

i suppose you should compare the IOM more to the Roman or the on it's height than to the CS or the Kaiserreich in their respective late war years. The IOM is nowhere short on supplies or man power. It is stretched out, communication is difficult, the political structures are obsolete and drowned in bureaucracy, enemies are gnawing on every border, and within there are dissidents (chaos) as well as power hungry bearers of an official mandate.
If you draw those parallels any longer, then the IOM will last for quite a while still - until there is an occasion where the IOM shows weakness and has to give in to that weakness. In case of Rome, it was the point when the borders were so far stretched that they could not hold them any longer. The retreat from Britain was the point when they got accustomed to the thought of giving up areas of power to concentrate forces elsewhere. If the Tau expansion cannot be stopped, that could be this initial weakness for IOM. Once the IOM has to accept it cannot stop it without making other areas vulnerable, the downfall will start.

That is, if the Golden Throne lasts for a while still. Should the astronomican start to dwindle, it would be the immediate end.

edit: ninjaed by KingDeath!

Theoretically, and logically speaking, the IoM is extremely vast and powerful. It is so vast that even with enemies pressing in and advancing on them, for every one warrior that dies, he/she can be replaced by 100, and for every world lost, they can easily conquer or give birth to another 5. That is how vast the Imperium is, millions of worlds inhabited by millions of people, giving birth to another billion each and every day. Man power is inexhaustible, and that alone is probably 80% of all you need to keep the empire going. If such an IoM is ever possible, judging by WH40k's situation, they are nowhere near collapse and have a pretty good chance of rebuilding and rebirthing from its corruption and stagnation. Of course doing so will require some drastic change that no one has the capability to stop though.

The Imperium has already collapsed or fallen into civil war more than once before and recovered.

I think a big part of the Imperium's problem is the Imperium itself. The Imperium would be better off scrapping alot of it's orginisations and removing all the pointless dogma. The Imperium as it exists may one day fo but it may be replaced with a new empire based on the old but better.

Ernestas wrote:
I know that tyranids lack warp travel capabilities and their most powerful engines are unable to operate "near" others objects who have strong gravitational force. .

Tyranid drives do work near other objects with powerful gravity, they don't have engines as the term is commonly known. However the exact Tyranid power source for their ships has never been properly identified. This is due to it being very unusual and eating itself with the death of the ship which prevents post battle investigation. Tyranid FTL is a form of gravity-drive. Slower (not too much slower though) than warp travel but far more reliable, as in warp monsters don't keep trying to get in, no unpredictable warp currents, time distortions etc.

 Leech wrote:
I think a big part of the Imperium's problem is the Imperium itself. The Imperium would be better off scrapping alot of it's orginisations and removing all the pointless dogma. The Imperium as it exists may one day fo but it may be replaced with a new empire based on the old but better.

I'm not a fan of that attitude to the IOM in any degree. It paints the IOM as pointlessly stupid, where only a few reforms could change it from an incompetent and bumbling empire to gaining the offensive at every turn and corner. No sir, in my mind the IOM needs the differencing things just to provide checks and balance, if one thingy gains too much power, disaster inevitably follows.

I agree with Beeviz. The many different institutions and their structures can compensate for each other's failure. Principle of redundance. Structrures centered around few central elements have weak spots.

In my opinion, the Imperium will prevail until they suffer a catastrophic defeat (outright losing a black crusade, losing the next war for Armageddon, Battle for Maccrage vs Kraken. ect)
This would likely cause runaway losses and provide their enemies substantial momentum to claim whole sectors while they recover from their defeat.

Of course, the more the Imperium expands, the more they have to defend, and the less they will likely be able to repel the next big assault.

In my opinion, the IoM is in a weakened state due to the Tyranid invasions. In the fluff The Tyranids signaled the begging of the End Times. The IoM was on the offensive and performing many crusades to retake its lost wealth, and then the Tyranids came, the 13th Black Crusade, The Tau Incursions, and the Necron awaking and numerous Ork Waaghs. It was too mjuch and put the IoM on the defensive. But The IoM is slowly pushing back at the Necrons, Tyrinads and the Orks, especially in the Ultramar sector. So I think in 1 to 2 millenia we should see the IoM becoming more powerful than ever before, unless Fail-baddon (Abbadon) is getting the traitor primarchs and their legions to help him.

Many millennial giving that borders are changing daily, some worlds are lost and some are claimed, colonized, joined.
Giving how much military power Imperium has ( VAST, we are talking about the fact that only 0.5% of their entire population is in the military ) it can go on indefinitely unless some grater threat arise to overpower it ( that can be only one of the of other races triumph card ).

I don't think it's really close. I mean, earlier in the 41st, the Macharian Crusade happened! Took nearly a thousand worlds in only 7 years! As long as the imperium has it's heroes, the end will always be a distance away. I mean sure, after the crusades all those planets turned into a big warlord territory fight until the Spess marines got things in hand...after 70 years. But still, it goes to show that the IOM is still kickin'.

basically once the necrons begin spamming their titans (remember the small one that krumped a ton before an emporor finally shot it down) or when the emprah dies which shouldnt be too long since his throne is rumoured to be cracking

 Leech wrote:

Tyranid drives do work near other objects with powerful gravity, they don't have engines as the term is commonly known. However the exact Tyranid power source for their ships has never been properly identified. This is due to it being very unusual and eating itself with the death of the ship which prevents post battle investigation. Tyranid FTL is a form of gravity-drive. Slower (not too much slower though) than warp travel but far more reliable, as in warp monsters don't keep trying to get in, no unpredictable warp currents, time distortions etc.

This is a very interesting fluff. Could you give me a source to it?

The Imperium won't, and can't last forever. It just has to last long enough for humanity to become fully psychic.

That's the tiny glimmer of light in the Grimdark.

Graphite wrote:
The Imperium won't, and can't last forever. It just has to last long enough for humanity to become fully psychic.

That's the tiny glimmer of light in the Grimdark.

*SMASH* Aw shut it, da humies isn't gonna deus-ex-Morkina 'emselvez inta salvation by some zoggin' awful magik trick like da darn BRB sorta hintz might 'appen. Ya izn't da eldar gitz. Yoo Imperium 'Uv Humie only lastz as long as da boyz is still lazy. When we all goes onna warpath, den yer 'Perium Uv Whatever is gonna come a-krashing down like a dakkajet wot lost itz wingz. WAAAAAGH!!!

 Arcsquad12 wrote:
To me, it will be the fall of the Roman Empire. One day, the High Lords of terra will look out to the stars and realize that their once unified nation has fractured into independent sectors and unions.
.

This is the most realistic scenario.

Graphite wrote:
The Imperium won't, and can't last forever. It just has to last long enough for humanity to become fully psychic.

That's the tiny glimmer of light in the Grimdark.

That or a fully intact STC is found.

The situation the Imperium is in now is one of decline, but its an indefinite rate of decline. We can't say "the Imperium is 50% closer to collapse than it was at the time of the Heresy", its just closer.