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Which value is the best upgrade. I kind of think this will not be much of a contest as 4-3 is huge in terms of effectiveness. Although 2-1 is good for Anti-Armour

AP 6-5
5-4
4-3
3-2
2-1

I don't think this is really a rules question. More of a Tactics question then anything else.

Moving over where you might get more bites...

As youve already said, Ap 4 -> 3 and 2 -> 1 are the big game changers. Being able to kill 7 marines rather than 3, or being able to explode a land raider rather than destroy the lascannon is huge.

I think it has to be AP3 to AP2.

With that change, you're able to punch through any and all armor saves and you've doubled your chances of destroying a vehicle.

3 does seem to be the magic number. Above 3 everything else you are bypassing fails at least half the time anyway so it isn't a big deal. 3 is where the number of models removed by a weapon significantly changes based solely on its AP.

2 is important too, since at that point you're removing the save from models that are almost impossible to kill and there is an added effect on vehicles, but for the sheer number of targets that suddenly can't stand the heat anymore, AP 3 is the one.

It'd probably be 4<3<2<1. Anything above 4 might as well not even bother most of the time.

I'd say 3 to 2 got the biggest buff in 6th due to the power weapon AP changes and the vehicle damage chart. At AP2, you now belong in a small class of weapons that can bypass any armor. Without it, TEQ and MC laugh at 5/6 of the attacks you throw at them. You also get a bonus against vehicles (as was said earlier, you double your chance to make a tank explode).

I'd agree with everyone saying the switch from 4 to 3 is results in the largest increase in power all other things being equal.

6+ and '-' are a disadvantage, typically models with this armor save cost 'less' than they normally would.
5+ is basically free, doesn't really seem to factor into the cost of a model much at all.
4+ costs any given model somewhere between 2-5 points (by my estimation).
3+ on the other hand costs any given model in the neighbourhood of 10+ just by itself.
2+ is worth about 20-30 points per model.

Being able to negate 3+ and up in broad swaths gives a player a fairly large virtual point advantage in dealing with those type of units, who go from being worth 15+ points to being (virtually) 'worth' maybe 5 or so.

I'd take is as given that the most common (given the number of marines and their varients with it, as well as more heavily armored xeno models) save is 3+, so you get the most bang for your buck with that leap.

That really depends on what you are playing against.
Maybe I misunderstood your question, but I did some math for you.

Let's say you shoot and land 40 wounds at AP3
Against Armour 2 that would result into 5 unsaved wounds.
If they were AP2, you'd have 40 unsaved wounds.
So one little increase in AP gives you 8 times as many wounds.

Now take 40 wounds at AP4 against 3+ Marines: 14 unsaved wounds.
If those shots were AP3, you'd have 40 wounds.
That's only 2.9 times as much wounds.

Therefore the jump from AP3 => AP2 is the strongest, it gives you 8 times as many wounds compared to 3 times as much with AP4 => AP3.

But that is if we ignore all context like other saves, point-costs and additional rules.
And we all know that you can't do that in Warhammer

Some interesting posts and info here.

@Neorealist and Kangodo
What would the point value of AP 2 >1 be in regards to vehicle insta-kills?

AP3 is important due to sphess marine saturation but AP2 is the most important as it kills guards and MCs alike!

The difference between AP-2 and AP-1 is much less pronounced, they both do a fine job of annihiliating vehicles. (with a sole difference of just 16% on the penetration roll)

I do not argue that AP-2 is not more 'powerful' than AP-3, just less 'points efficient'. Typically you pay a premium for weapons with ap-2 in the neighbourhood of 15-25 points, and they generally have a single shot and/or some other drawback. Not as much with AP-3 weapons (they typically cost 5-10 points max) so it's generally cheaper and just as good vs a majority of (non-vehicle) targets one is likely to aim it at.

 Neorealist wrote:
The difference between AP-2 and AP-1 is much less pronounced, they both do a fine job of annihiliating vehicles. (with a sole difference of just 16% on the penetration roll)

I do not argue that AP-2 is not more 'powerful' than AP-3, just less 'points efficient'. Typically you pay a premium for weapons with ap-2 in the neighbourhood of 15-25 points, and they generally have a single shot and/or some other drawback. Not as much with AP-3 weapons (they typically cost 5-10 points max) so it's generally cheaper and just as good vs a majority of (non-vehicle) targets one is likely to aim it at.

Agreed in regards to the draw backs from ap2 to 1 weapons, following the example of Kangodo 40 unsaved wounds at ap2, now that is a weapon i;d like! but there isnt any ap2 weapon that could give you that many wounds, even a ten man squad of plasma weaponed sternguard could never kick that many wounds out. ap3 I think it the magic number really, even more so when it ignores cover saves (yes helldrake I am looking at you!!), For dealing with 2 plus saves, weight of fire is king really.

For 4 plus saves and above, cover saves come into play more then armour saves

The points efficiency associated with the various AP values is going to be codex dependent. I play Tau and avoid AP3 weapons like the plague because my codex charges me at least 20 points per shot (often at BS3) for AP3 guns. I find it more economical just to use weight of fire than resort to these weapons because they are so expensive.

Its also worth pointing out that cover, even 5+ cover, greatly diminishes the effect of AP3 weapons. In cover, two high AP shots will be just as lethal as a single AP3 shot. And typically you can field high AP weapons at a ratio equal to or greater than 2:1 relative to AP3 guns for the same points.

The major exception seems to be if you can acquire AP3 weapons in large blast or template form, where you can both inflict massive wounds and ignore armor (it also helps that these weapons will also often be high strength). But I have never been impressed by AP3 weapons that don't use some kind of template.

Something that also needs to be thought about is the volume of targets you'll be facing at each AP level. Usually there will be more 4+Sv models on a table then 3 or 2.

Is it better to ignore a moderate save value against lots of targets or a large save value against a moderate number of targets. I get there is no "true" answer for this question as it relates to the eternal debate over specialist vs generalist.

However, while being concious of the difference in volume of available targets does that change anyones POV? Or is it sufficient that having AP3-2 is just as effective against 4+Sv?

AP3 is the most important AP to have because of the number of marines there are. As a whole I have to say the armor save and AP system is really poorly conceived. Armor 5 and 6 are pretty much worthless because almost every infantry gun (pulse rifle, bolter, splinter rifle etc) has AP5. The difference between armor 5 and 4 is HUGE! its not just 1/6 it's do I get a save or not 9 out of 10 times. Armor 3 is also a lot better than the 1/6 dice roll indicates. AP 3 is where guns start costing a premium to have and the number of shots is very low. This lets marines go out of ruins with little fear of being smacked around. The lack of ap3 and lower and the abundance of 3+ saves really makes AP3 the most important AP to have. Unites with 2+ saves are pretty rare, many lists don't have any 2+ saves, so the need for AP is low. It is nice to have but the premium you pay for it is not always worth its points in return as they do low number of shots, usually have pretty short range and only fire once.

I really wish 40k had the same rules of fantasy of a negative modifier to armor as strength goes up. Maybe something like at s5 you get a -1 modifier and s6 you get a -2 modifier etc. Because it is ridiculous that my s8 krak missile can vaporize a marine but a terminator gets the same save he would get as if I shot him with a s3 lasgun.

I guess this would be a good spot to have a question answered.

I'm running Vanilla SM and trying to decide between spamming Meltas or Plasmas. I have 5 squads of 10 so it leaves me with about 5-10 Melta/Plasma options. Currently I have all meltas. I think 5 Meltas and 7 MM's on the list.

Is it worth the AP1 versus the AP2 (with double the shots)??

Excellent points made here especially by MarkMark and Phanixis. The only point I have to add is that as an Ork player, is that so far the conversation has been mostly about shooting, which for Orks is all about volume. The only place Orks shine is in CC when it comes to low AP with the not-so-humble PK. We either shoot things with AP 6 with Boyz, AP 5 with Bikes, AP 4 with Lootas, and much less than before, AP 3 with Rokkits. The number of shots per point directly decreases along with declining AP to the point where the AP 2 weapon of choice is the PK hands down.

This is where some of the Marine codicies fail both in offense and defense. Thankfully the reign of TH/SS is over thanks to 6th Edition.

It's obviously 3->2. No question. No other Ap switch takes a unit that gets to save 5/6ths of the time and makes it save never.

Of course, it does get more complicated once invul and cover saves get into the mix. Furthermore, you generally have to pay a premium for better Ap (especially on multi-shot weapons), so there's efficiency to consider, I suppose.

In any case, I've gotten to the point, personally, where I try to limit my exposure to weapons that aren't AP1/2...

Its a trade off between being able to effectively handle multiple types of units and specializing. The biggest problem I have with low AP weaponry is that a handful of bad rolls can completely ruin a shooting phase as they typically have a low rate of fire. On the other hand good, or decent rolls, can completely decimate a unit that would otherwise bounce AP3 or worse shooting.

I don't think AP1 is worth the price increase over AP2 at all.