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Got a quick question for the number crunchers. I never did well in statistics.

I'm fielding a Imp Guard gun line vs a Death Guard.

My question is, statistically, are Heavy Bolters or Auto Cannons better? Based strictly on hitting, wounding, failing both armor saves, and feel no pain.

BS 3 Guardsmen. 3 shots vs 2, and STR 5 vs 7, AP irrelevant vs T5, 3+ armor save, 5+ feel no pain.

Do you mean autocannons? Because there's no way for the Guardsmen to get assault cannons without space marine allies.

Neither are very good for the job

Heavy Bolter – 0.16666666(Recurring) Dead PM

Autocannon -- 0.185(Recurring) Dead PM

Heavy Bolter -
3 shots, 1.5 hits, .75 wounds, ~.25 wounds suffered, ~.16 post FNP.
Autocannon -
2 shots, 1 hit, 1 wound, ~.33 wounds suffered. ~.22 post FNP.

At that point you're not hoping for averages, you're hoping for poor rolls. Spam shots, take Heavy Bolters.

Take autocannons.
Extra range so you can shoot earlier.
Extra S so you can threaten transports or support vehicles.
Same price tag as heavy bolters.

Don't take either. Both are terrible at what you need them for. It's like using a paint brush to redecorate an entire room.

Sure it'll work, but you're going to be there forever, and there are much better ways of doing it.

Out of the two, I would go for autocannon, as being more versatile.

However I would say get lascannon. They are much more effective if you can find the points for them.

Yeah, Autocannons and Heavy bolters are two terrible weapons for the job.
Since it is a gunline, take earthshakers or colossi or something, blow up a squad in one shot. Take three and all his troops are gone in one or two turns.

EDIT: My bad, I forgot to answer the question!
Okay, so by the looks of it..
It is a toss up. The heavybolters can spam like there is no tomorrow, but the autocannons can threaten transports. Depends. Do you feel more threat from Mech armies or infantry in your games?

In the end, I choose autocannons for their versatility.