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How do you see the game of Warhammer 40k develop as time goes on? Do you think the interest will continue to grow as we all hope it does? Or do you think it will begin to lose interest?

It really depends on GW's marketing and pricing against whatever the economic backdrop will be, I think. But if things totaly don't go south financially and someone doesn't come out with something totaly revolutionary and cool, I see GW doing well.
They are currently coming out with some killer minis and I like the current crop of codexes.
I know some people hate it, but bringing back allies was a master stroke in that it allows people to get into that new army they were wanting to get but couldn't afford a bit at a time.
If you look at games going on, most involved allies anyway if what I saw since being in this game since 1990 is any indicator.
Most people going into thier FLGS would be in games involving multiple players to a side in all manner of bizarre, non fluffy alliances.

I think that GW will just continue the stagnation of the storyline. They've already gone back an changed the 13th Black Crusade so that its just starting (it was one of the earliest lage scale campaigns with Internet reporting that GW did, and had some definite outcomes that they've also retconned).

I think we'll all just be Groundhog Day'ed in an eternal year M41.9999.

GW at some point will run into a pricing problem where they lose the casual pick up purchaser that is the backbone of the business. The Mom who buys little Timmy a starter box of space marines and never comes again. It will be too expensive for that.

At which point, they will experience a crash. very low sales which higher prices cannot make up for. They will be forced to lower their prices or go out of business. They'll opt for the former.

The problem will only be intensified by other competing game systems like Warmachine. GW will fall in line, it may take another 10-15 years but it will happen.

And if GW does go under, the IP will probably get snapped up by another company and continue on.


40k and Fantasy will live on, GW may or may not.

Currently GW is making a decent profit by cutting costs and pumping out content to keep their customers interested. Over the next 5 years I see GW continuing to axe poor selling products (as was done with specialist games) and closing stores that perform poorly.

GW clearly doesn't want to jump to any conclusions and take big risks with innovation. It would be terrible decision for example to suddenly discount all items by 25%. Sales would rise a little while their overall revenue would plummet.

In a few years GW will most likely hit a point where they are making either little profit or non at all (not necessarily losing though). At this equilibrium point, we will see the company go through a major overhaul and implement major hobby changes.

I'm excited to see what happens in the near future, but I feel bad for those gamers who live in low population areas as they will most likely lose their stores (if they haven't already) unless there is a very dedicated consumer base in the area.

GW is a large enough company that we won't see them disappear, but in 20 years the hobby may be completely different.

Either the predictions of a crash or other financial ruin for GW as it currently stands are correct, or they aren't.

If they are not correct, you can expect to see business as usual from GW. I think history shows they will continue as is until it can't be done anymore.

If the predictions are correct, even if GW starts to see financial problems, I would expect GW to be sold. There are too many people who have invested too much time (I'm talking players) for a would-be buyer to decline taking over the IP, manufacturing, etc, of the product. With proper management, it would do just fine.

I kind of like this prospect. It would bring uncertainty, but can you imagine a GW that is modernized? That wants to retain customers and entice them to purchase? Loyalty rewards programs, actual bundle deals, real rules management? Tournaments?

There is too much potential profit locked up in GW for it to go belly up and vanish in the next few years. However, if it is continually mismanaged for a long time, I'd be it loses market share to other companies and that could spell its demise.

Well, with ongoing price rises they will reach the break-even-point quite naturally. Then they have to make some adjustments to their business model.

Was the thread about the future of 40K or the future of GW? Bit lost by the replies..........

40k - ever bigger games, more minis on the table, bigger models, ever more new units and vehicles that "have always existed" in the game.

GW - not really bothered what happens to them.

It might be 10 to 15 years down the road, but I hope the model companies are looking at what 3d printing is going to do to this hobby as it becomes more and more available to people. Gonna be live Eve Online with them selling us limited number production run blueprints for different models

I am sure GW just plans to start charging $20 for an ounce of paint.

I'm hoping for more players IF the 40k MMO is released (I pray it does). Non-fans will probably give it a try and if they enjoy the GRIMDARK they will probably give the miniature game a try or at least plant a seed for the future.

More gigantic minis will be released, new sculps for very old models will be created, SoB will finally be casted in Plastic and they will go through a "Dark Eldar" sales boom.

I'm hoping for a bigger online presence and Gwyidion hits the spot with the "I kind of like this prospect. It would bring uncertainty, but can you imagine a GW that is modernized? That wants to retain customers and entice them to purchase? Loyalty rewards programs, actual bundle deals, real rules management? Tournaments? " -> That would improve both the game and GW.

Been down this road a few times...

I suspect GW will continue to lose relevancy steadily.

They try to get new young players but they are not "main stream" enough to be a brand to flock to that competes with so many other great brands. The starter kit pricing is high compared to other brands of tabletop miniatures which tends to get overruled by the parents that have the money.

The "old" players that have a vested interest is not the target of their sales so feel disgruntled and remember "the good old days" so loyalty is not all that compelling.

They could easily claim large market share, all they have to do is all those old extra things that involved the people and made an immersive community.

Until then, I can wait and only buy odds and ends as I feel the need and say no to the flavor of the month.

 Dannyevilguy wrote:
It might be 10 to 15 years down the road, but I hope the model companies are looking at what 3d printing is going to do to this hobby as it becomes more and more available to people. Gonna be live Eve Online with them selling us limited number production run blueprints for different models

I am sure GW just plans to start charging $20 for an ounce of paint.

Why do people keep saying this?

3-D printers currently have nowhere near the level of detail as traditionally sculpted and cast models. And probably won't for a long time yet.

Its going to be at least a decade, probably longer, before 3-d printing comes even close to what traditional sculpting can do. And then you still have to see if it can do the volume, a multi-thousand dollar machine that can only make one model at a time is not going to be commercially viable.

GW will slowly move to a Marvel style business model, where the real money comes from anything but the core product, if not GW then whomever pries Warhammer from it's corpse.

Njtrent59 wrote:
How do you see the game of Warhammer 40k develop as time goes on? Do you think the interest will continue to grow as we all hope it does? Or do you think it will begin to lose interest?

Sadly in my corner of gaming land, thanks to the continued price increases the interest is already dropping. My FLGS doesn't even see any GW games played in house anymore. People used to play 40k on Saturdays by that stopped a couple years ago. Now it is all Flames of War, Malifaux and Warmachine/Hordes. The only time GW minis are seen in the store now are people using the WFB minis to play Mantics new fantasy game instead. :( I don't know if the market is really going to shrink overall, but expect the fan base will shrink some, but generally flatline on the growth scale as those who already are fully invested in the game keep playing while fewer new players start up due to the prices. Just my view on the whole thing.

Skriker

Basically, at this point, I have everything I will ever need from GW, for the style of gamer that I am. I have the setting, I have the books of fluff that I need, I have books that provide some unit "stats" but, more importantly, tell me how their wargear works.

For the RPGs that I write and run? That's all I need. I can make up everything else to fill in the blanks. If GW went out of business tomorrow, it would not significantly impact my gaming hobby.

Would I like to see a new SoB line and Codex? Sure, but I can get female space-knights from other companies. Would I like to see more and varied Chaos Marine and Chaos Daemon sculpts? Yes, but I can get these from other companies.

I've been a customer of GW for 20 years now, and though I do not regret spending the money that I have on GW products, and I fully enjoy the setting for its flexibility, it is obvious that I am not the core market they're looking to sell product to.

And that's fine, because GW is no longer the company that I'm looking to buy product from, as they're no longer the only, or best, game in town.

I will buck the trend here and say that I think GW have made moves to address a lot of the issues which have perplexed players in recent years.

They are getting out codeces fast and regularly with decent but not bank-breaking waves of new figures and leaving the core model ranges largely alone so as not to immediately invalidate people's collections.

They seem to have abandoned largescale price rises which were the main source of anger. They seem to be cleverly building this into the releases, so you get a buff (new codex plus figures) to sweeten the rise.

Codex supplements are a nice way to broaden the game out and allow a much wider range of possibilities.

It is clear IMHO that they have heard much of the complaint and at least taken some steps to address it. If they are sensible and continue to change their practices they will cement their position more I think.

Their competition is mostly either highly derivative (if not a straight copy in effect, with some slightly different trimmings) or on a very small scale. For large futuristic tabletop mini battles 40K is still the only game in town. I for one have no interest in playing small scale skirmish games.

I think they need to be more sensible about their sales approach, they need to adopt more sales, bulk discounts, etc. That will give them more chance. Recently they have done this to a small extent. They need to widen this and adopt it. Maybe an army of the month discount or something.

I can't see anything better than 40K out there. Most other systems I have seen are not dissimilar and have far inferior product lines and most critically background. 40K has the option to spin off films, books, computer games, etc. Who else does?

I agree with Isengard, GW is addressing alot of the common complaints (other than pricing). FAQs are new, and the rapid codex release schedule is, quite frankly, awesome. I think that 40K will continue pretty much as is for the foreseeable future. As for GW, they'll hang around as long they can hook 12 year-olds and turn them in 24 year-old Apoc players.

 Psienesis wrote:
Basically, at this point, I have everything I will ever need from GW, for the style of gamer that I am. I have the setting, I have the books of fluff that I need, I have books that provide some unit "stats" but, more importantly, tell me how their wargear works.

For the RPGs that I write and run? That's all I need. I can make up everything else to fill in the blanks. If GW went out of business tomorrow, it would not significantly impact my gaming hobby.

Would I like to see a new SoB line and Codex? Sure, but I can get female space-knights from other companies. Would I like to see more and varied Chaos Marine and Chaos Daemon sculpts? Yes, but I can get these from other companies.

I've been a customer of GW for 20 years now, and though I do not regret spending the money that I have on GW products, and I fully enjoy the setting for its flexibility, it is obvious that I am not the core market they're looking to sell product to.

And that's fine, because GW is no longer the company that I'm looking to buy product from, as they're no longer the only, or best, game in town.

Couldn't have said it better myself. I guess as long as people buy into the idea of GW recycling its rules every few years so people can 'keep up' and continue to buy essentially different versions of the same things GW will continue to prosper unabated, but I'm afraid my 30,000 points of multiple armies will only grow by the scores of points, not thousands. We will still play and refine our own version of the game, but I'm afraid GW as it stands is in my rear-view mirror.