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At its essence the game is a dice game. The math always wins. If every move you make puts you at a mathematical advantage you will win more than you lose. Experience is what gives you the intuition to know the moves that put you at a mathematical advantage, even without doing the math.

It also helps to play a list that already has the best mathematical chance of winning.

 Formosa wrote:
My experience is mathhammer doesn't work, the real world will always throw a wrench in the closed environment of mathhammer, it's a good indicator, but not something to be.relied on

If you let your experiences cloud what the math tells you will be disappointed over time. Yes the real world does throw a wrench into "the closed environment of mathhammer". It is those events that stick in our minds, (and make the game fun actually) but should not cloud your judgement. Does making a charge over 10" make for an awesome, potentially game breaking moment? Yes of course it does, but the math tells us typically this is NOT a good idea and should probably not be attempted most times.