Your army seems comprised entirely of anti-armour/elite shooting. That is a problem. Try to throw some anti-infantry in there to slim down his troops choices. If he can't grab objectives, he can't win.
Dropping 3 avengers is a good idea since their entire goal should be objective grabbing, you don't need anything more than 5.
Putting Scatters on the serpent would definitely be a better idea. Fire dragons, Wraithguard, and a lance on the Guardians is more than enough anti armour/elite fire.
I'd suggest dropping either the guard, fire dragons, or crimson hunter entirely and getting some warp spiders. virtually every unit in the tau codex has low initiative, so Strength 7 shots will go a LONG way for you.
The Farseer needs some bodyguard. I find giving him a jetbike and sticking him in a 3-man jetbike squad (cannon optional) is a great way to not only give him some additional wounds, but also gives you another scoring unit for last minute objective grabs/contests.
If you want to steer away from wraithknights as a mind game tactic, then I'd suggest taking warwalkers instead. They perform amazingly versus Tau, mainly due to the fact that they don't rely on cover saves.
I'll leave the list editing up to you, as it is important to find your own mixes, I hope these suggestions help.
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