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So my friend started up a nurgle-based CSM army a while back. The core of the list (almost always at 2000 pts) is pretty solid - it always includes:

Nurgle Lord on a Bike with the Black Mace + other goodies
6-7 Nurgle Bikers with melta
2 Units of 8 Plague Marines with Plasma in Rhinos
2 units of 3 Nurgle Obliterators

From there, he usually expands with more Obliterators, more Plague Marines or Cultists, a Daemon Prince or Daemon allies, Forgefiends, etc. He doesn't own or want to purchase a Heldrake.

He is extremely knowledgeable of the rules, he's been playing the game for a long time, and he's definitely not a bad player. The problem is...his win record with this army is pretty bad. The only major weakness on paper is a lack of anti-air (no one in our group brings lots of flyers) and few scoring units (he has lots of distracting threats and his troops are super durable). Why is he having so much difficulty?

His main troublesome opponents are Tyranids and Tau, with occasional Grey Knights, Eldar, and IG. Are there any strategies he should be using? Any changes to his list that would help?

The units look solid enough so I would assume what you are seeing is a result of how the army is handled on the tabletop or the environment you play in.

Have you made any observations about why he/she looses?

For example there are only two vehicles and they are both AV11. Considering that a TAC list would need to have tools to deal with IG tank armies the two Rhinos are likely to be gone in a blink and the plague marines are stranded. If this happens the bikers will be alone on the attack and the army could be taken apart piecemeal.

How dense are your gaming tables? An low-firepower elite army like this will suffer if there is too little LOS blocking terrain around.

Also, if you are in a very competitive environment note that the CSM codex is considered kind of weak at the moment.

Thanks for the reply!

Usually one or both Rhinos are dead by the end of turn 2 (occasionally, they'll live longer). In our games, he'll always go first and drive the Rhinos up to the middle of the board. The Plague Marines are rarely "stranded".

Our table is somewhat terrain dense. Not a ton of LOS blocking terrain, but it is there. Lots of ruins to hide behind...most have windows.

Our environment isn't casual, but it's not ultra-competitive either. It hardly seems to make a difference. (ex: His last game that didn't go well, I brought a bunch of Tyranid Warriors, Genestealers, Old One-Eye, Deathleaper, no psychic powers, etc.)

Bad rolls?

I do really like the Black Mace on paper, but whenever I tried it, it failed miserably.

Whenever you really need those extra attacks from the Daemon Weapon USR I always roll 1 or 2. If the opponent knows of the 2" rule he will try to spread out his unit, not to mention the fact that the opponent seems to never fail his already few toughness tests.

I think it works well with IG and armies like that, but in a TAC list.. there were so many times I said: "God, I wish I had a PF+LC".

And in the CSM Codex, from my limited experience, the performance of your HQ is vital. When your HQs don't perform well, the whole army will suffer.

I'd also suggest trying a 5 Chaos Spawn with MoN to escort the Nurgle Lord (on a Bike) instead of the Bikers.
Less damage output, no Melta guns, but 15 T6 wounds with 5+ invulnerable save can be really really hard to remove.

Finally, I'd cut the PM down to two units 7 men strong, 2 plasma guns without Rhino. With the spare points I'd try adding a second HQ choice. A Lv3 sorcerer with spell familiar and a mob of cultists is a cheap but effective option.

Also a MoK Lord on a Juggernaut with the Axe of Blind Fury can be scary. Even Huron and Abaddon are competitive choices.
Also consider allying with the Black Legion to unlock that extra 3rd HQ slot.

CSM has some wonderful options in the HQ, Fast and Heavy slot, so in a 2k points game unlocking one more slot could really make the difference

Unmarked ML3 Sorcerors on bikes hiding in Nurgle Spawn units are fantastic. Without the mark they don't need to take one of the crappy CSM powers, so they can go all out on Biomancy and/or Telepathy.

Why does he lose? Does he lose his scoring units or does he fail to shift the enemy's scoring units?

Yeah I'd like to know HOW he loses. Does he get tabled? Wander away from objectives?

Against tyranids I'd say the problem is cc. A hive tyrant will make a mess of even T6 bikers.

I've seen a lot of success with two level 3 telepathy nurgle sorcerers. Likely to get invisibility, and invisibility on T6 bikers that then get into hth rocks!

I like taking Daemon allies and focusing on CC, the cult troops are the only good ones in the book, and cultitsts are a choice, but expect them to die or flee if anything turns their guns on them. if you play chaos it is difficult to be a "shooty" army because there are many armies that will outshoot us. dont take a DP if he has nobody to go up front with. Another strategy i used was taking 4 5man plague squads with plasma and walk them up the center of the field with oblits. forgfiends suck, id rather take auto/las preds for 115 pts or auto havocs for those juicy autocannons

The fast-dead rhinos are due to low armor. Unless he/she can avoid being seen with them expect them to pop turn 1 (turn 2 at best) because almost every list has some kind of big gun, especially at 2k, that will waste them in a flash.

The list looks good, it might be either a) poor tactics, improved with time or b) the opponent was the rock to this scissors-based list (or both, never know).

Personally i think the Black Mace is wasted if its not on a prince, since Smash makes it AP2 with all the other goodies. But thats just me.

Your friend sounds like he has a very aggressive play style. Rhinos up the middle with a death star of bike... I bet he Deep Strikes his Obliterators a lot! What he is running into is that he still has a 5th Ed mentality concerning troops. he isn't winning a lot because if it is an objective game he only has two troop choices. He is then losing on points because his opponents are probably getting First Blood and a kill point by blowing up a Rhino and he has such a small army that they are just either shooting him off of the board or doing things like getting line breaker.

I can see it now...
Because he is a short range shooty list, he moves up and is at extreme range for a single shot plasma and a long range melta gun shot (if he goes first). He has to move up to get into range round 2 for a charge or plasma double tap while his opponent sits behind LoS blocking cover or gets cover saves. They come out at the end of turn 1 and now /he/ is the one in double tap range or the extra d6 melta range. Now he is behind the 8-ball from the get go points wise. His bikers take a ton of plasma double-tap fire with only jink saves and no FNP. His rhinos are blown away and now he has to make rolls to see how far he actually moves to get out of the crater, slowing him down. meanwhile his opponent has a unit or two move up the flanks to capture objectives or get linebreaker. Two or three Oblits in one squad DS in (probably late) or are sitting by themselves in the back and didn't get any vehicle kills with their turn 1 lascannon shots. So they are now sitting there for a round having to use something like a plasma cannon with the scatter dice to hit.

So, how close am I to getting this right?

Lets look over what you gave us for his list.

HQ
I agree that the Black mace is not great on a Lord. Go PF+LC and pack a melta bomb just incase (only 5pts). If you guys play 1500pts to 1850pts, I suggest a Unmarked sorc at mastery lvl 3 riding a bike with a melta bomb. MoN to make him T6 and then 2 rolls on Biomancy is a player's option, both work, but I really like Endurance on bikers where there is practically no fear of instant death strength attacks. Also if he has the points, spell familure. Every HQ should have Sigil of Corruption to give them a 4++ save. If you have extra points, Gifts of Mutation can be a cheap 10pt boost (specially if you want to shoot for +1 Wound, Strength, or Toughness), and remember that you can not spawn or DP at the start of the game (you only get those chances after winning a challenge). Abby can never spawn or DP, but that is his special rule.

Troops
He also needs more troops. If your going to rush forward with Rhinos, you need more than 2. At that point, he should run smaller squads in more rhinos. He should shoot for 4 Rhinos with 5-7 Plague Marines in each. Give the Champ a Power Fist or leave him naked, but always pack a melta bomb. I like to throw a combi-melta on the Rhinos themselves to give you some anti-tanks options. This way, even if he loses 1-2, he still has troops advancing. If he wants a camper unit, put a Havoc Launcher on a Rhino instead of a combi-melta.
5 Plague Marines with 2x Plasma guns and a Melta bomb on the Champ with a Rhino with a Combi-Melta is 200pts on the nose.

Fast
Cut down the bikes to a squad of 4 or 5. He can still have 2 meltas, though I prefer Plasmas to make use of the Relentless SR of the bikes. Remember they have a 5+ Jink save, so use it. Give the Champ melta bombs and a LC.

Heavy
Tell him that if he has his Obliterators in squads bigger than 1 guy to also put Vets of the Long War on them to give them a bonus +1 Leadership to increase it to a 9. I think if he has the points, a Predator or two just with Lascannon sposons (115pts each) would give him AV 13, no moral issues (so never runs) and two Str 7 Ap 4 shots and two Str 9 AP 2 shots a turn (if it doesn't move and just sits back giving him cover). Run two Preds and a squad of 2-3 Obliterators to supplement the Pred's AT capabilities and use their versatility to handle most situations/opponents and he should be fine on the long range fire power front.

Elites
If he runs any, you do not have them listed. MoN Terminators with 3 Combi-Meltas and a Chain Fist are the only thing I would consider at this point, but that could also be more troops or bikes. He probably can not afford them.

Fortifications
If he is really hurting for AA, and ADL with a Quad gun or Icarus LC is a good option. If he does a camping unit option to sit on a home objective, the Plague marine squad can man the gun. Otherwise he is probably looking at his Obliterators (they can shoot normally with their own weapons and use the Intercept of the gun) or even Cultists. Worse comes to worse, you shoot it every round you can with someone that doesn't have a long range attack just to make use of the gun. Lower BS units need the Quad gun.

I think the tactics would fit in to what he is doing right now, he just needs more troops, or at least more than 2 squads of troops. I think he just has way to many bikers and is sinking to many points into the unit. I think the single addition of a Sorc with Biomancy (Endurance, Endurance, Endurance) would help this unit so much, as well as giving the Lord FNP. That Lord /really/ need s power fist, since the Black mace is not AP 2. The Invuln save from Sigil will help keep him alive to swing away at init 1, and if he isn't fighting something that needs a Power Fist, he can switch over to the LC (and can then use Shread). Both weapons are specialist weapons so would also give the Lord +1 attack.

Have him send me a PM (or you can for him) if he wants further help.