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So I'm interested in seeing how badly 40k Psykers got nerfed with this new Psychic phase. I know that they did take a pretty big hit, because I can do enough stats to see the general trend. However, anything after 3D6 is beyond my abilities. So some help would be appreciated.

A bit of explanation for how casting powers works:
Each power has a cost assigned to it, Warp Charge. For every point of WC the spell costs, you need to roll a 4+ on a D6. A WC1 spell requires one 4+, a WC2 spell requires two 4+s, and etc.
For two or more results of 6s on your D6, bad things happen!
In the tree of Daemonology, for any doubles at all, bad things happen!

I'd like to know the chances of passing when rolling loads of dice at WC1, WC2, and WC3 spells, as well as their chance of Bad Things.

Here's what I've calculated so far:
WC1, 1d6: 50%.
WC1, 2d6: 75%.
WC1, 3d6: 87.5%.
WC1, 4d6: 93.75%.
WC1, 5d6: 96.88%

WC2, 2d6: 25%.
WC2, 3d6: 50%.

2d6 Bad Things: 1/36. Daemonology: 16.7%
3d6 Bad Things: 8.8%. Daemonlogy: 52.8%
4d6 Bad Things: 12.81%

Here's the stuff I'd like to know:
A formula for figuring all this out!
Whether I'm wrong about anything so far.
Chances to pass WC2 on 4d6 to 10d6
Chances to pass WC3 on 3d6 to 12d6.
Bad Things (two or more sixes) on 5d6 to 12d6.
Daemonlogy (two or more of any number) on 4d6 to 12d6.

You can use binomdist function in excel to work it out.

Off hand if I remember, binomdist calculates for X number of tries, knowing the chance each time, what is the chance of achieving a certain number of successes. So roll 20 dice, how many 3+ will you get etc.

If you are interested, can pm me. I'll have to check my formulas.


Automatically Appended Next Post:
Chances to pass WC2 on 4d6 to 10d6
4-0.69
5-0.81
6-0.89
7-0.94
8-0.96
9-0.98
10-0.99

Chances to pass WC3 on 3d6 to 12d6.
3-0.13
4-0.31
5-0.50
6-0.66
7-0.77
8-0.86
9-0.91
10-0.95
11-0.97
12-0.98

Bad Things (two or more sixes) on 5d6 to 12d6.
5-0.20
6-0.26
7-0.33
8-0.40
9-0.46
10-0.52
11-0.57
12-0.62

Daemonlogy (two or more of any number) on 4d6 to 12d6
At 7D6 you will have 100% chance of perils.

I'm typing all this on an ipad so pardon the poor formatting. Also, if anyone spots mistakes, please feel free to correct.

Alright, here's my results, in a handy reference table.
As you can see, Daemonology is pretty dangerous, and Perils all around are far more likely to occur than in previous editions of 40k. Additionally, powers in general have become more difficult to cast, since you are limited not by the PMLs of your casters (as in 6e), but by the WC of the powers.