In order to present a proof of balance within either game, you're likely going to need a huge load of playtesting, using players of similar skill and experience, playing out millions of games from a sampling of thousands of lists, with multiple table styles and, as both games are more organic, allowing, in practice, an infinite number of board positions for any given model on the table. you need to do things such as assigning a qualitative value to a player's skill level (not rank), which would be nigh-impossible to do, as you are attempting to quantify the intangible, as well as accounting for the odd turn in luck inherant to the outcome of many games. Trying to break down the value of the codexes based soley on their ranking in a tournament, or a series of tournaments, takes only a view of what, in the day and age of the internet, tend to be list builds that run remarkably similar to eachother.
While the meta can dictate the "most effective" list builds at the time, the meta is constantly and rapidly shifting, even in the days leading up to the official releasee of a new codex. Case in point, the PBS from the IG codex. People not only had lists up for what could have been an amazing unit, but the meta had already chewed it up, spit it out, and knocked this unit into the dirt before the codex officially hit shelves. Even in a static environment, you're going to see an unstable metagame as it responds to the changes in players and the evolution of how the games are played. Lash Spam? Old news, Mech ate it. Biker Nobz? Old news, died within months of it's inception in favor of a higher body count style list. The meta will change, even in the face of a stagnant selection. The successful players go "Rock", and by the time the mainstream goes "Rock", the successful players have moved on to "Paper".
This game is much more cerebral then chess, and infinitely more organic. Do I think that GW will ever achieve true codex balance? no, not really, as the player will always change to fix the issues that the meta is presenting at any given time.
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