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ruminator wrote:They made less profit, but they still made profit.

Look at gross margin - 76%, this is essentially the sale price/cost of production. So a £10 box only costs them £2.40 to produce. This will though ignore any central/admin costs, office rental etc but still a pretty decent lump.

If they get the planned codex launches, second wave of BA and DEldar etc out on time, then no real problems for 2011 ...

Also remember that just because the product has a MSRP does not mean that they will sell for this price. Remember, GW is a distributor, that means they sell to FLGS's at a discounted price. If you buy directly from them, than yes you would have the 400% mark up but if you don't then you may have a mark up of 300%. Remember that all of their other costs must be covered somehow. So that means, rent, factory overhead, payroll, shipping, marketing, game development, and events.

Flashman wrote:I wonder if part of their problem is that its too easy to pick up GW goods second hand. I mentioned in another thread that I scooped a sealed box of Thunderers (RRP - £18.50) for less than £6.00 on ebay the other day.

My personal circumstances (wage cuts, mortgage and baby) mean that I very rarely buy new these days if I can find it somewhere else for much cheaper.

I think that could be true, and the availability of secondhand stuff is a reflection of their strategy of ignoring veterans and churning n00bs.

Churned n00bs make a lot of first hand buys every year, followed by second hand sales a couple of years down the line, when the n00bs get out of Warhammer and into girls. This allows the vets to pick up stuff cheap. I got half my Tyranid army off eBay, for about half the price of new.

Veterans tend to hang on to their armies. I still have plenty of Rouge Trader era Beakies and Spulk terminators.

Hmmmm.

Lotta scare mongering fellers, please don't upset the kids . GW are not going bankrupt nor would it appear that they will for many years yet according to these and previous figures. I would suggest that this time next year will be a good indicator of what GW are currently trying to accomplish. Personally I have hopes that while the GW of the 20 year past will not return they may align themselves in this direction more.

Re price increases over the longer term the 40/50% increase that Kroothawk highlight tracks inflation in the UK over a 10-15 year period as well so not quite the gouging that is complained about. That doesn't take away from the fact that the individual models can seem quite steep, certainly the plastics prices are the exception here. Indeed with GWs bias towards oil, metals, property and labour [broad I know] I would expect inflation to be more that the general rate for that period.

Re Killkrazy's £500 prce tag for entry to 40K, I never quite see where this type of example orginiates from.

The basic set and a paint set are all that is required, so not even £100. Building up to the 2000 point army that seems to the starting point for some examples [who actually does this?] is an extreme example that I would more often associate with someone pushing the advantages of Warmahordes i.e. small forces, convieniently forgetting that 40k is just a good game below 1000pts as it is above [make of that what you will ]. I started with the basic set up, a copy of RT and 30 marines, and probably didn't have a force that we would recognise today for quite some years. All saved for from pocket money.

Anyway the City seems to like it curently trading is up 2.14% (7.5pps) on the opening price.

Kilkrazy wrote:

Frazzled wrote:

Kilkrazy wrote:I know many of us including me have often said that GW stuff is price inelastic, meaning that people go on buying it despite the price increases.

But when revenues drop 4% in a year, which GW themselves don't both to explain, only talking about how the economy doesn't affect a niche market, you have to wonder.

So for a laugh, I price up what a youngster or their father might need to spend to get into the HHHobby.

AoBR £55
IG Army Book £17.50
Eight tanks and vehicles at average £20 = £200
10 boxes of infantry £155.50
Some special models, like characters £30
Paints, tools and stuff £40

Total = £498

You should get a pretty reasonable army out of that, however compare it with the cost of a PS3 and a bunch of games, or a holiday in Italy, and so on.

Maybe they really have priced themselves too high.

Are the figures they are using currency adjusted?

The figures presented in the financial statements are currency adjusted.

My figures aren't as I am just doing a rough calc based on the British market, for purposes of illustration.

The financial statements are translated back to the functional currency in which the parent operates in. To get this you would take the subsidiaries financial statements and for the balance sheet convert to the functional currency at year end (or reporting period) and for the income statement you would use the average conversion rate for the year (or reporting period). All gains or losses related to translation would be noted below the line but before taxes and would be run through other comprehensive income. If you're comparing items on a specific day, you would look at the spot rate for currency translation. If you're comparing a period of activity, you're going to use the average rate for that period.

KOS wrote:what if they are going to close everything ? Could they really go bankrupt ?

Not yet. They could end up in trouble but there's a long way they could decline yet. They won't disappear all together though, what could happen is that they end up in a really bad way and get bought out by another company like Hasbro.

Oddly enough I looked up the wikipedia entry on TSR as they went this way and were the biggest RPG company in the world. Here's a few choice bits from that entry...

After its initial success faded, the company turned to legal defenses of what it regarded as its intellectual property. In addition, there were several legal cases brought regarding who had invented what within the company and the division of royalties, including several lawsuits against Gygax.[16] These actions reached their nadir when the company threatened to sue individuals supplying game material on Internet sites. In the mid-1990s, this led to frequent use of the nickname "T$R" in discussions on RPG-related Internet mailing lists and Usenet, as the company was widely perceived as attacking its customers. Increasing product proliferation did not help matters; many of the product lines overlapped and were separated by what seemed like minor points (even the classic troika of Greyhawk, the Forgotten Realms and Dragonlance suffered in this regard).

...

Ryan Dancey, Vice President of Wizards of the Coast, believed that TSR failed because of "...a near total inability to listen to its customers, hear what they were saying, and make changes to make those customers happy."

There's something awfully familiar about some of this...

notprop wrote:The basic set and a paint set are all that is required, so not even £100. Building up to the 2000 point army that seems to the starting point for some examples [who actually does this?] is an extreme example that I would more often associate with someone pushing the advantages of Warmahordes i.e. small forces, convieniently forgetting that 40k is just a good game below 1000pts as it is above [make of that what you will ].

every 40k player i've ever gotten to be friends with has done that (planned to build up to 2000pts or so from the get go). i've never met anyone that got the starter and said, "yup, that's all i want or need to continue playing the game." the basic set isn't required, just the rulebook and a combat squad... but that doesn't mean you'll frequently see people doing that outside of store demos. i've never had anyone offer me a game at 1000pts or under unless they were severely time constrained ("i've got an hour before i need to go... feel like playing 750pts?") or unless it was dictated by an escalation league rule where you didn't have a choice. playing 40k at 1500-2000pts is the standard everywhere i've played (multiple stores, multiple states in the US). in order to play the game at smaller levels, you NEED to adopt house rules (like the old kill team rules in previous editions or the combat team rules from adepticon) as the game rules are optimal at higher points. pricing a 1500-2000pt army is a very valid example.

notprop wrote:The basic set and a paint set are all that is required, so not even £100. Building up to the 2000 point army that seems to the starting point for some examples [who actually does this?] is an extreme example that I would more often associate with someone pushing the advantages of Warmahordes i.e. small forces, convieniently forgetting that 40k is just a good game below 1000pts as it is above [make of that what you will ].

Everybody at my gaming store plays between 1500 and 2000 as "normal". 2500 is often an upper range, but never 1,000 or fewer unless it's an escalation-type league culminating in 2k or 2.5k points.

40k really is not a good game below 1,000 points. Oftentimes it's not feasible to take a special or named character (Ghaz for example is considered near-mandatory at 2k, but you'll never see him at 750) and your options are pretty cramped due to the necessity of troops in 2/3 of missions for many armies. Some 'iconic' model combinations, like Terminators in a Land Raider, are nearly impossible to field while balance gets thrown in favor of armies that have superior troops options relative to the other FOC choices.

Although it is possible to play 40k at a lower points level, I nor anyone I game with regularly do so or consider it fun.

My new Dark Eldar army cost $800. The IG army I bought in 2010 cost the same amount. Both were purchased from online Vendors with a 25% discount. So what drove up the price of these 2000pt armies? Forgeworld orders. I couldn't get what I needed from eBay. My fault for not being patient but hey I like my stuff to look good and I like to buy and build my armies all at one time.

I just got back into video games after a 3 year break and it is very hard to justify spending the time to build and paint models, then drive all over creation to play with fellow table top gamers. All I have to do now is sit on my duff and connect with gamers all over the world. It is not the same I know but it is instant gratification and easier to accomplish. I hope GW doesn't fail but I will not be buying anything directly from them until I see some changes in their business plan. Forgeworld on the other hand will continue to get my money as they are the only show in town for certain items.

Kilkrazy wrote:I think that could be true, and the availability of secondhand stuff is a reflection of their strategy of ignoring veterans and churning n00bs.

Churned n00bs make a lot of first hand buys every year, followed by second hand sales a couple of years down the line, when the n00bs get out of Warhammer and into girls. This allows the vets to pick up stuff cheap. I got half my Tyranid army off eBay, for about half the price of new.

Veterans tend to hang on to their armies. I still have plenty of Rouge Trader era Beakies and Spulk terminators.

Found this nice analysis by frozenwastes over at Warseer which hits the mark IMHO:

The thing about new players vs retaining vets is that there's a disconnect with their product and their targetting of new (younger) players. Their product is designed that you need to spend a good amount of time to collect and build a full sized army. They expect people to quit playing and no longer collect their models before they can even experience a full sized game.

So they have new young gamers as their target market, but then have rules sets that require so many miniatures that only those who stick around to be vets will have the full experience of their product.

GW is a company of disconnects. They produce in a way that encourages volume sales (high up front capital costs, but low per unit costs) but market and sell in a way that encourages lower unit sales at higher prices. They make a rules set with such a high model count, but then have a sales and retention plan that expect the customers to never fully utilize their product.

If GW truly wanted to target young new players, they should have a product that can be fully experienced upon entrance and not plan from the get-go to lose the customer within two years.

notprop wrote:Hmmmm.

Lotta scare mongering fellers, please don't upset the kids . GW are not going bankrupt nor would it appear that they will for many years yet according to these and previous figures. I would suggest that this time next year will be a good indicator of what GW are currently trying to accomplish. Personally I have hopes that while the GW of the 20 year past will not return they may align themselves in this direction more.

Agreed. Personally, I attribute the loss of profit to the fact there were no big releases during 2010. What was their big release last year? Dark Eldar? When do you think most of the purchases were for that? I would expect right before Christmas or shortly thereafter and as the line starts to flush out, there will be more sales as the army becomes more viable. Same with Skaven - why would you play a force where the coolest rares are not available yet?

They have been aligning themselves this way as Rogue Trader and Warhammer 2nd Edition were largely skirmish games (2000 pts) in 2nd edition is about 1100 points now a days as this would have been 2 HQ (about 600 points), 2 tactical squads (600 points + wargear and weapons), terminator squad (approx 400), Devastator squad (400 points). Now a days this is between 1000 to 1200 points depending on equipment. Their newer rules require more as they are trying to get you the player to think about it more as a war not skirmish of a larger war (hence there are no strategy cards for strafing runs, artillery strikes, etc)

GW is about selling models, thats why they always refresh their line. My space wolf army shows exactly that too - I've got some RTB01's, Some pewter units, some of the 3rd edition models, and the latest box set as well.

Look at Warmahordes - they are just now doing the GW thing and are starting to refresh their line. Is Privateer Press a public company? If so you would need to compare them to each other. I will let someone else search the SEC Edgars if they are a US Public Company or go to their website to find press releases. Compare the two and you can find out which one is run "better". Since their sales won't be comparable, you're going to rely heavily on ratio analysis which isn't always the best way to analyze a company or derive "value" of a Company.

What was their big release last year?

No big releases, yeah, except for the $74 core rule book for their oldest major game system plus an all new starter set for that same Warhammer Fantasy Battle system. Cognitive dissonance again. Just because a product is not important to one person doesn't mean it wasn't "big". At least, it should have been when that much of their business and shelf space are devoted to it.

I think the more GW grows the more it expands to bigger armies with more models and higher prices... Its a model but you do need those spacehulks and mordheims skirmish games to grab the attention of people and keep them happy... IMO these are like essential because it lets the people with few bucks to enter the GW worlds... as things are people need to splash big money all at once in order to play a game... they either go to other hobbies or go to alternative miniature games that dont have such high prices in order to play a game.
Probably specialist games are peanuts to GW but they are the introduction card you must invest. Videogames/movies are cool but do they convert people to the GW core, the miniatures?

boyd wrote:

notprop wrote:Hmmmm.

Lotta scare mongering fellers, please don't upset the kids . GW are not going bankrupt nor would it appear that they will for many years yet according to these and previous figures. I would suggest that this time next year will be a good indicator of what GW are currently trying to accomplish. Personally I have hopes that while the GW of the 20 year past will not return they may align themselves in this direction more.

Agreed. Personally, I attribute the loss of profit to the fact there were no big releases during 2010. What was their big release last year? Dark Eldar? When do you think most of the purchases were for that? I would expect right before Christmas or shortly thereafter and as the line starts to flush out, there will be more sales as the army becomes more viable. Same with Skaven - why would you play a force where the coolest rares are not available yet?

...

.

Tyranids
Dark Eldar
WHFB 8th edition
Dawn Of War Chaos Rising
Who knows what else

If none of these is an important release, shouldn't a £100+ million company be able to manage a major release once a year?

Not to mention, GW has been in decline since the mid 2000s.

Today's Evening Standard carried a report that GW Mgt attributed its bad results to lack of experienced, trained staff last summer, resulting in a failure to explain the benefits of the HHHobby to potential customers.

Would that be the same GW Mgt that spent the past several years closing stores, laying off experienced staff, reducing shops to one-man operations, and pissing off the veterans who help spread the word?

RE: Prices.

I'm coming into quite a bit of cash later in the year, and have decided to treat myself to a company of Blood Angels, including spangly converty bits* Right now, I've assembled in my online basket all the GW kits I need to do my take, which comes to a grand total of £1,240.65. This is beyond just the standard 6 Tac, 2 Ass and 2 Dev squads, as due to the aforementioned spanglies, I've included lots of conversion bits. Not to mention 4 Stormravens, 4 Dreads, 6 Rhinos, 2 Drop Pods and 3 Baal Predators.

Therefore, as a particularly extravagant purchase, I think it goes to highlight just how much of price complaints are down to personal predilictions. Happy to post up the entire contents if anyone cares.

And Navarro, DoW as brought a lot of old schoolers back into the fold. At least, it was when I worked there (made redundant September 2010)

*Anyone know where I can get Devastator Shoulder Pads? GW do Assault and Tactical, but not Dev. IIRC, this is possibly due to the pads being moulded on...but advice is appreciated!

Tyranids were huge last year, so huge that the same week this year it was virtually impossible for GW stores to make their goal of meeting or exceeding the same week the year before. The Tyranid Codex and new models, both boxes and blisters, flew off of shelves in piles.

^^^True dat! Store I worked in hit target that month!

I bought Tyranids because of the new book.

What a pity that GW couldn't manage to make a model or conversion kit for the Tervigon, one of the best units in the codex.

Luckily for both n00bs and vets, GW have decided to remedy that omission by suing Chapterhouse, who filled the gap.

Kilkrazy wrote:

boyd wrote:

notprop wrote:Hmmmm.

Lotta scare mongering fellers, please don't upset the kids . GW are not going bankrupt nor would it appear that they will for many years yet according to these and previous figures. I would suggest that this time next year will be a good indicator of what GW are currently trying to accomplish. Personally I have hopes that while the GW of the 20 year past will not return they may align themselves in this direction more.

Agreed. Personally, I attribute the loss of profit to the fact there were no big releases during 2010. What was their big release last year? Dark Eldar? When do you think most of the purchases were for that? I would expect right before Christmas or shortly thereafter and as the line starts to flush out, there will be more sales as the army becomes more viable. Same with Skaven - why would you play a force where the coolest rares are not available yet?

...

.

Tyranids
Dark Eldar
WHFB 8th edition
Dawn Of War Chaos Rising
Who knows what else

If none of these is an important release, shouldn't a £100+ million company be able to manage a major release once a year?

Not to mention, GW has been in decline since the mid 2000s.

Today's Evening Standard carried a report that GW Mgt attributed its bad results to lack of experienced, trained staff last summer, resulting in a failure to explain the benefits of the HHHobby to potential customers.

Would that be the same GW Mgt that spent the past several years closing stores, laying off experienced staff, reducing shops to one-man operations, and pissing off the veterans who help spread the word?

I thought 8th edition and Tyranids were an 09 releases my mistake.

I think its poor timing on GW's part not to have a larger year for Fantasy. New edition should mean more excitement, I wish they would have kindled the excitement or at least fanned the flames a bit more...

i would have to agree with the disappointment withthe lack of model for Tyranid's Codex. I still remember that it took GW over three years to come out with a new drop pod. on the other hand, I just recevied the Black Box Storm Raven and on the back you will know that the Grey Knights are going to get this model....hint hint. But GW did indeed miss the boat on the Tyranid.

Exactly!

That is what strikes to the heart of the issue.

GW basically have four product lines

1. 40K
2. WHFB
3. LoTR
4. Everything else, like Black Library, that hangs off of one and two.

If they couldn't manage a good splash from the relaunch of their no.2 product line, there is something wrong.

Oddly, new edition of Fantasy shook things up so much, I had customers starting new armies left, right and centre. The Horde mechanic made some older, dustier armies a lot more usable (Ogres!) and thus appealing.

Could a new book have helped? Of course, but to say it didn't work or was a flop (slightly paraphrasing from other threads before anyone gets their knickers in a twist) is disingenuous.

Kilkrazy wrote:Today's Evening Standard carried a report that GW Mgt attributed its bad results to lack of experienced, trained staff last summer, resulting in a failure to explain the benefits of the HHHobby to potential customers.

Would that be the same GW Mgt that spent the past several years closing stores, laying off experienced staff, reducing shops to one-man operations, and pissing off the veterans who help spread the word?

is gw a big enough company to warrant regular coverage in a major newspaper in the UK? i don't generally see reports about hasbro let alone a subsidiary like WOTC over here. also, is your H broken or is that a meme i'm not familiar with?

The Evening Standard often picks small companies with some resonance to do little pieces on. For example, local brewers, or GW. They don't get regular coverage but they get some press when their results come out.

Wise observers know that the state of the economy isn't indicated by the results of Rio Tinto Zinc and British Telecom. It's indicated by small signs like being able to easily get a taxi on a rainy evening, or the amount of champagne drunk in wine bars.

The HHHobby thing is my little dig at GW trying to define all of Wargaming as their private intellectual property.

FIGHT THE POWER!

To be fair, PP describe things as the Warmachine Hobby and nobody bats an eyelid.

BrassScorpion wrote:Tyranids were huge last year, so huge that the same week this year it was virtually impossible for GW stores to make their goal of meeting or exceeding the same week the year before. The Tyranid Codex and new models, both boxes and blisters, flew off of shelves in piles.

I can't find DE Wyches or Warriors on the shelves at my local GW.
They keep selling out.
Though there are always Ravagers, Mandrakes, and Incubi.


Automatically Appended Next Post:

Mr Mystery wrote:To be fair, PP describe things as the Warmachine Hobby and nobody bats an eyelid.

I have never heard that.

They do mention the "wargaming" hobby.

Mr Mystery wrote:To be fair, PP describe things as the Warmachine Hobby and nobody bats an eyelid.

PP never claimed to be 95% of wargaming.

skrulnik wrote:

BrassScorpion wrote:Tyranids were huge last year, so huge that the same week this year it was virtually impossible for GW stores to make their goal of meeting or exceeding the same week the year before. The Tyranid Codex and new models, both boxes and blisters, flew off of shelves in piles.

I can't find DE Wyches or Warriors on the shelves at my local GW.
They keep selling out.
Though there are always Ravagers, Mandrakes, and Incubi.


Automatically Appended Next Post:

Mr Mystery wrote:To be fair, PP describe things as the Warmachine Hobby and nobody bats an eyelid.

I have never heard that.

They do mention the "wargaming" hobby.

I think it was their website on it.

And KK...it's not like PP could even claim to be 95% of the Hobby either. And I do believe you are referring to an external view of the company, rather than one they issued themselves.

I think it was their website on it.

Sauce plox?

Will have a squizz. I think it was on the page linked about the new big modelly stuff they are doing. Gimme a mo.

Mr Mystery wrote:

skrulnik wrote:

BrassScorpion wrote:Tyranids were huge last year, so huge that the same week this year it was virtually impossible for GW stores to make their goal of meeting or exceeding the same week the year before. The Tyranid Codex and new models, both boxes and blisters, flew off of shelves in piles.

I can't find DE Wyches or Warriors on the shelves at my local GW.
They keep selling out.
Though there are always Ravagers, Mandrakes, and Incubi.


Automatically Appended Next Post:

Mr Mystery wrote:To be fair, PP describe things as the Warmachine Hobby and nobody bats an eyelid.

I have never heard that.

They do mention the "wargaming" hobby.

I think it was their website on it.

And KK...it's not like PP could even claim to be 95% of the Hobby either. And I do believe you are referring to an external view of the company, rather than one they issued themselves.

No, it was a view they issued themselves. It was widely reported and discussed on DakkaDakka a couple of years ago.

What PP don't claim is irrelevant to what GW do claim