Sun Tzu, and Going second

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**Thaylen**

Flavius Infernus wrote:
schadenfreude wrote:
Ailaros wrote:42%?

Half the time the dice roll for 1st turn is lost and 1/6 times for stealing the init comes to just under 42% if you are planning an alpha strike.

But isn't the extra 8% cancelled out by the fact that about 8% of the time *you* steal the initiative and go first after being given second turn?

I think it's actually still 50%, even with initiative-stealing taken into account.

The seize the initiative roll is at the guy who deployed second's choice. If you do not want to seize, you do not have to roll.

**Mannahnin**

Flavius Infernus wrote:
Red Corsair wrote:
Flavius Infernus wrote:
schadenfreude wrote:
Ailaros wrote:42%?
Half the time the dice roll for 1st turn is lost and 1/6 times for stealing the init comes to just under 42% if you are planning an alpha strike.
But isn't the extra 8% cancelled out by the fact that about 8% of the time *you* steal the initiative and go first after being given second turn?

I think it's actually still 50%, even with initiative-stealing taken into account.
They are separate rolls, so you can't lump them into one percentile like that because one roll is conditional upon another. ie. its 50% to go first then 16% for the loser to seize. You can't split the difference because only the loser gets the chance to seize conditional upon losing.
Right, that's where the 8% comes from. As I understand it, this is the correct way to calculate probabilities on rerolls.

If you start out wanting to go first, you get it 50% of the time on the rolloff. That's the easy part.

Of the 50% that you win, in 16% of those instances your opponent will seize the initiative. Since the reroll only happens 50% of the time (when you win the first roll), that's only 8% of the total rolloffs over all that your opponent takes it away from you--50% of the 16%. So your total percent chance of going first, in Shadenfreude's calculation--is 42%.

I think this is pretty basic probability math for how to calculate die rolls that are contingent on other die rolls. This is how it's done for twin-linked weapons and Ld test rerolls.

But what I'm saying in addition to Schadenfreude's calculation, there's also the possibility that you--the player who wants to go first--will lose the rolloff and get stuck with second turn. Then you will seize the initiative and wind up with first turn anyway. The percentage chance of this happening for any given rolloff is, in fact, 8%.

So overall, your odds of getting first turn and then being seized are the same as your odds of getting second turn and seizing, so they cancel out. Even with the seizing rule, your odds of getting to go first if that's what you want are 50%.

Yes, but IME if you've built an army to alpha-strike, you still usually can't afford to risk that 16% roll to Seize and deploy in a completely aggressive manner. Because that usually means risking an 84% chance of failing that roll, and being deployed with your pants around your ankles for your opponent to alpha-strike. If you deploy more defensively, to use cover and reduce the damage your opponent can inflict in that first turn, you are normally not set up to take full advantage of a successful Seizure.

So while strictly speaking it does go back to a 50% chance if you're totally committed to going first, in practice it's normally a 42% chance of going first with the best deployment to take advantage of it.